应用材料公司 (AMAT.US) 2025财年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Applied Materials highlights its strategic positioning in advanced semiconductor technologies, anticipates significant growth in AI-related equipment spending, and navigates market challenges including trade restrictions. The company forecasts strong demand in DRAM, ICAPs, and PVD technology, with financial improvements expected from cost reductions and operational efficiencies.
会议速览
The Applied Materials earnings call for Q4 fiscal 2025 introduces forward-looking statements subject to risks, emphasizing non-GAAP financial measures and providing reconciliation details on the company's Investor relations website.
Discusses fiscal year 2025 achievements, challenges due to trade restrictions, and strategic focus for 2026, emphasizing growth in AI computing and semiconductor markets, with a strong emphasis on maintaining market share and innovation in key segments.
AI's impact on semiconductor technology fuels demand for advanced computing infrastructure, with Applied leading in innovation. Key advancements include epitaxy systems for AI computing, hybrid bonding for performance improvements, and EB metrology for 3D device inspection. The company's inflection-focused strategy, deep customer engagement, and service solutions position it for growth in logic, DRAM, and packaging as next-gen tech ramps. Applied's E Center facility, AI adoption, and digital tools streamline operations, aiming for record growth in 2026.
Applied Materials achieved record annual revenue, driven by strong performance in semiconductor systems and global services. Despite trade restrictions impacting China, the company forecasts growth in leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, and high-bandwidth memory. Strategic RD investments and customer alignment are key to meeting future demand, with a focus on advanced analytics and efficient RD programs.
A financial update reveals robust cash generation, strategic investments, and shareholder distributions. Highlights include a new Epic Center, increased dividends, and share repurchases. The company anticipates wafer fab equipment spending acceleration, supported by strategic reporting changes enhancing operational efficiency and investor visibility.
The dialogue highlights the significant impact of AI on driving demand for leading edge foundry logic and DRAM, emphasizing the importance of supply chain readiness and co-innovation with customers. It discusses improved demand visibility and strategic workforce adjustments to optimize performance and meet major customer ramps, particularly in anticipation of AI infrastructure spending.
Discusses maintaining market leadership in advanced semiconductor technologies amidst increasing global and domestic competition, particularly in China, highlighting strategic responses to trade restrictions and technological innovation in areas like AI and energy-efficient computing.
A discussion unfolds on potential WFE growth, influenced by AI solutions, and Applied's strategic positioning. Key points include expected strong growth in leading edge and DRAM sectors, a 600 million headwind effect distribution, and an estimated 15% allocation of leading edge wafer starts towards AI data centers, growing at a mid-30s CAGR. Applied anticipates favorable fiscal script mix and robust growth, particularly in the back half, driven by AI advancements.
The dialogue highlights the company's leading position in foundry logic and DRAM, including high bandwidth memory, with strong market share gains expected as advanced factories ramp up. It also discusses future technological advancements like gate all around and hybrid bonding, positioning the company for over 50% market capture.
The semi business anticipates a flattish revenue trend in the first half, with significant growth expected in the second half. Gross margins are projected to remain stable until the revenue uplift, after which volume increases and ongoing pricing and cost programs are expected to drive margin improvements.
The dialogue discusses China's affiliates reinstatement, emphasizing the spread of shipments throughout the year rather than a sudden surge. It reassures concerns about PVD business growth, highlighting Applied's leadership in wiring innovations and integrated platforms, ensuring continued PVD ramp-up and growth.
Discusses China's mid-20s level expectations for silicon products, attributing potential growth to leading-edge and DRAM strength despite lower domestic spending. Highlights China's significant role in WFE and its shift towards self-sufficiency. Addresses memory capacity concerns, suggesting no current limitations but emphasizing individual customer schedules.
A company reassures stakeholders that despite a decline in China's revenue, they are maintaining market share in accessible accounts. The discussion highlights the impact of trade restrictions, particularly on DRAM and NAND, and contrasts the company's performance with competitors, attributing differences to the mix of global and domestic customers served.
Discussed the size and growth of the advanced packaging business, noting it was slightly lower in fiscal 25 due to reduced HBM shipments compared to 24. Despite this, the business is expected to double to over 3 billion in the coming years, driven by increasing demand for larger packaging sizes and new technologies. Additionally, addressed the potential return of 600 million from China entity list restrictions, with the majority expected to be in equipment, and a portion in Ags services.
A detailed discussion on the significant increase in revenue from leading-edge DRAM customers, attributed to strategic market positioning in high bandwidth memory, capacitor scaling, etch share, and patterning. The dialogue also addresses the performance gap with U.S. peers in foundry logic, emphasizing strong results in Taiwan and Korea, and anticipates healthy growth in DRAM investments for fiscal 26.
A discussion on the expected growth rates between leading edge logic and DRAM, with leading edge forecasted stronger. Timing of revenue growth is influenced by fab timing and customer discussions. Gross margin increases are anticipated due to pricing process improvements and ongoing cost reduction efforts, with further enhancements expected as volume grows.
The call highlights the company's investments in advanced memory technologies, aligning with increased AI-related equipment spending. A replay of the call will be available on the website, concluding with gratitude for participants' interest.
要点回答
Q:What were the financial results and growth achievements of Applied Materials in fiscal 2025?
A:In fiscal 2025, Applied Materials delivered results above the midpoint of guidance, marking the company's sixth consecutive year of growth with annualized revenue and earnings growth rates of approximately 12% and 20%, respectively. The company built new capabilities, strengthened its product portfolio, and streamlined its organization to prepare for future opportunities.
Q:How did trade restrictions affect Applied Materials' business in China?
A:Trade restrictions led to increased trade tensions and an unfavorable market mix, which impacted Applied Materials' business in China. China's revenue contribution to the company's total systems and services revenues declined to 28% in fiscal 2025 and further to 25% in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company expects reduced wafer fab equipment spending in China and anticipates no significant changes to market restrictions where they can operate.
Q:What were the areas of the market that experienced the most growth for Applied Materials in 2025?
A:In 2025, the fastest growing areas of the market for Applied Materials were segments where the company had low market share, with a focus on leading edge foundry logic investment and advanced lithography. Additionally, the company gained strength in DRAM, where revenues from leading edge customers grew by more than 50% over the past four fiscal quarters.
Q:What does the recent trip to Asia with customer and partner discussions reveal about the semiconductor industry and Applied Materials?
A:The discussions with customers and partners from the recent trip to Asia reinforced the view that the semiconductor industry and Applied Materials have never had greater opportunities. The customers are engaging with Applied Materials to ensure readiness for significant production ramps in the coming years due to the significant demand for semiconductors and semiconductor fabrication equipment.
Q:How is AI computing expected to influence the semiconductor industry and wafer fab equipment spending?
A:AI computing is fueling secular growth in semiconductors and wafer fab equipment, reaching a tipping point that is accelerating investment in next generation computing infrastructure. The semiconductor industry is forecasted to grow at a compound annual rate between 10% to 15% over the next five years, driving an increase in wafer fab equipment spending. Applied Materials expects 2026 to be another growth year with revenue weighted toward the second half of the calendar year.
Q:What are the core areas of focus for Applied Materials' inflection focused innovation strategy?
A:The core strategy for Applied Materials is inflection focused innovation, which involves partnering with customers to identify technology inflections early, focusing research and development on critical challenges, and creating highly differentiated solutions using a broad portfolio of capabilities and technologies. Recent product launches at Semicon West exemplify this strategy.
Q:What new technology and products have been developed by Applied Materials to support AI computing and semiconductor production?
A:New technology and products developed by Applied Materials include the Exerra epitaxy system for higher performance transistors and the industry-first integrated wafer bonder, which improve performance, power consumption, and costs for complex multi-chip packages and die stacking. The new systems also include enhanced metrology tools for improved yield and defect detection in 3D devices.
Q:What was the performance and growth of Applied Materials' services business in 2025?
A:In 2025, Applied Materials' core service business delivered another year of double-digit growth, with more than two-thirds of service revenue generated from subscriptions and support across the company. The adoption of AI and digital tools is a key trend within the service business.
Q:What are the areas of focus for the company's innovation strategy in the upcoming year?
A:The company's inflection point-focused innovation strategy is positioned to deliver another record year in 2026, with gains in the highest value segments. They will capitalize on technology inflections in the fastest-growing areas of the market, particularly as next-generation technologies ramp up in volume production.
Q:What are the forecasted trends and growth areas in the semiconductor equipment market according to the company's outlook for 2026?
A:The company forecasts that leading edge foundry logic, DRAM, and high bandwidth memory will be the fastest-growing areas of the semiconductor equipment market in 2026. They have strong leadership positions in these segments and are aligning their R&D investments to create new products and technologies for faster and more energy-efficient transistors, chips, and systems.
Q:How has the revenue growth been distributed across the company's segments in fiscal 2025?
A:Revenue in fiscal 2025 grew by 4% to $28.4 billion, with growth across all segments. Semiconductor systems revenue was up, even with trade restrictions significantly reducing access to the中国市场. Foundry systems revenue set a record, along with record DRAM sales outside China, and revenue growth in Taiwan and Korea. Applied Global Services revenue grew 3% to a record $6.4 billion, with the recurring parts services and software portion growing by double digits.
Q:What measures have been taken to scale the company productively and where is the additional spending being allocated?
A:The company announced actions to reduce headcount to scale the company more productively. The additional spending is being allocated to strategic areas like advanced analytics, which are essential for the efficiency of their R&D programs.
Q:How did the company's non GAAP earnings per share and cash flow perform in fiscal 2025?
A:Non GAAP earnings per share increased 9%, and the company generated nearly $8 billion in cash from operations with a free cash flow of $5.7 billion despite elevated capital spending. They returned approximately $6.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, while operating income from Applied Global Services covered the dividend payment.
Q:What are the expectations for the upcoming fiscal Q4 according to the company's guidance?
A:For fiscal Q4, the company expects revenue and non GAAP EPS above the midpoint of guidance, with a decline in China revenue. Non GAAP gross margin is expected to be at the midpoint of guidance and up from the prior year, while non GAAP operating expenses are slightly higher than expectations.
Q:What are the new reporting changes that will be effective from Q1 fiscal 2026 onwards?
A:Starting from Q1 fiscal 2026, the display business will be reported in the semiconductor systems segment, and the 200 mm equipment business will move from Applied Global Services to semiconductor systems. Corporate support costs will also be fully allocated to the businesses. These changes will improve operational efficiency and provide better visibility for investors.
Q:What is the company's outlook for semiconductor equipment spending in the second half of 2026?
A:The company anticipates that semiconductor equipment spending is likely to accelerate in the second half of 2026. There is a positive outlook for fab equipment spending mix, particularly for applied AI, data centers, and advanced services that facilitate customer ramps and yields.
Q:What visibility does Applied have in advanced nodes of leading edge foundry logic and DRAM?
A:Applied has very high visibility and co-innovation relationships with customers for technology nodes a decade out in the future.
Q:How has customer demand visibility changed according to the speaker?
A:There has been a major improvement in customer demand visibility, with customers planning large ramps of advanced factories and requiring assurances from the supply chain operations and service teams.
Q:What is the impact of the headcount reduction on gross margins and Opex?
A:The headcount reduction in Q1 saw no uplift typically seen for annual pay raises and share-based compensation increases, which should be quantified in that quarter. The company conducted a year-long program to increase velocity and productivity across the company.
Q:What strategic changes has the company made to improve its competitive position?
A:The company has innovated the way it works with AI and digital technologies, driven higher velocity and productivity, streamlined the organization for future performance, and positioned itself to meet major customer ramps in the second half of 2026.
Q:How does the competitive landscape look in the company's leadership products, especially in the face of increasing competition from China?
A:The company holds strong positions in gate all around and backside power delivery, being number one in process equipment for leading logic and foundry, as well as in DRAM and advanced packaging. Despite increasing competition from China, the company is confident in its share growth due to deep relationships with customers and strong demand for products.
Q:What are the implications of trade restrictions on the company's business in China?
A:Trade restrictions have impacted the company's ability to serve parts of China's WFE market, leading to a reduction in business from around 10% to over 20% of China's WFE market due to new limitations.
Q:What is the company's outlook on PVD technology?
A:The company's PVD technology is doing well where it can compete, with plans for growth into the future, supported by strong demand for low resistance wiring in advanced chips. The company is also innovating with new PVD developments for ICAPs.
Q:What is the expected impact of the transition from Ags to semi on the 200 mm movement in terms of revenue for Qi and QA?
A:The impact of the transition on revenue for Qi and QA is expected to be approximately $15 million for each segment, totaling about $30 million, as the company is moving this amount from its services business to its equipment business to simplify management and reporting.
Q:What are the expectations for WFE growth and how might it affect Applied's performance next year?
A:The expectations are for strong growth in WFE, led by leading edge and DRAM, despite some headwinds in China and in ICPs. AI solutions are expected to drive the growth in both leading edge and DRAM. Applied believes they are well-positioned to outperform in the market next year, given their visibility and the expected growth in leading edge and DRAM markets.
Q:How much of the $600 million headwind is in Q1 and how is the impact spread throughout the year?
A:The $600 million headwind mentioned is included in the guidance for Q1. The company did not ship this amount in Q4 but expects to ship it in Q1 of the following year. The headwind is still being closed in terms of delivery dates, and there is no provided linearity for how this will play out over the rest of the year.
Q:What is the estimated allocation of WFE for AI data center solutions and how does it impact the industry growth?
A:The estimated allocation of WFE for AI data center solutions is about 15% for leading edge and DRAM wafer starts. Given the high growth rate of 30% CAGR in this segment of the industry, it implies that companies planning capacity for the next 2 to 3 years should allocate about 15% of their WFE towards data center solutions.
Q:What are the implications of AI demand on the mix and positioning of Applied in the semiconductor industry?
A:AI demand is expected to significantly affect the product mix and positioning of Applied. The two fastest-growing segments for the future are leading edge foundry logic, including high visibility in DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM). Applied is gaining share in these areas and is well-positioned with strong leadership in technology such as FinFET in DRAM and hybrid bonding for HBM. This is supported by discussions with R&D leaders in Asia and the fact that HBM will adopt this bonding technology in the future.
Q:How should the demand trajectory in the second half of the year be considered in relation to the first half, especially with the anticipated growth lift?
A:For the semi business, the demand trajectory in the second half is expected to be significantly higher compared to the first half. Growth in the Ags business is anticipated to be at low double digits and continuous throughout the year. The semi business, however, is expected to be flattish until the growth lift happens, especially in the leading edge, which is expected to significantly uplift demand in the second half. Gross margins are expected to remain in the range until there is a material lift in revenue, which is anticipated to come through in the second half.
Q:What factors are driving customer profitability and what innovations are being enabled?
A:The AI demand throughout the industry has significantly driven customer profitability. The company is enabling innovations like hundreds of miles of wiring in advanced chips, which are highly valuable for AI, and is continuing to work with customers to bring new products to market.
Q:What is the expected impact of Chinese affiliates on equipment shipments and customer relationships?
A:Chinese affiliates' equipment shipments are expected to impact the first quarter, with the tools being built and shipped in the balance of the quarter. The company wasn't initially building these tools and only after realizing they would be able to ship them. Consequently, it will take time to finalize the supply chain and make the builds. There may be interest from customers to work quickly through this process.
Q:How does the company view the expansion of ALDS into the PVD market and potential concerns about market share?
A:The company believes there is no need for concern about ALDS eating into the PVD market franchise. They have deep visibility into technology roadmaps for multiple generations and high confidence in the continued growth of PVD. The company is also highlighted as being the leader in wiring innovations within AI servers for high-speed data movement with low power consumption.
Q:What are the company's views on the long-term growth of PVD and the technology roadmap?
A:The company has extremely high visibility and unique technologies, including PVD, and the ability to combine technologies and integrate platforms. They mentioned innovations such as the integration of selectively with PVD into an integrated platform for critical applications. This is expected to result in a billion-dollar business for the company and will continue with deep visibility into future technology nodes.
Q:What impact does China's silicon product digestion have on revenue growth?
A:The impact of China's silicon product digestion on revenue growth is expected to be more than offset by the strength in leading edge and DRAM highlighted earlier in the year. The company also anticipates that if the digestion in China is lower than expected, revenue growth could be stronger.
Q:How does the company foresee the future of China's role in the semiconductor market?
A:The company foresees that China will remain an important market for ICs, accounting for about one-third of WFE (Wet Chemical Equipment), with memory and leading edge foundry logic also being significant segments. They expect a return to more normal levels of demand in the longer term for China's role in the semiconductor market.
Q:Are memory customers constrained by shell capacity, and how does this relate to the second half inflection?
A:Factory schedules are important, and while there is macro-level industry capacity to ramp, individual customer situations regarding capacity and constraints must be evaluated separately. At the time of the speech, there was no indication that capacity was limiting the ramp, explaining the anticipated second half inflection in comparison to the lower first half affected by China.
Q:What is the reasoning behind the company's claim of maintaining market share in China despite macro numbers suggesting otherwise?
A:The company claims to be holding its share and competing well in China by focusing on the accounts that they can support. They acknowledge losing share in China due to a larger portion of the market becoming inaccessible, as more than doubled the restriction on market access for them.
Q:How did the company's DRAM business perform in fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024?
A:The company's DRAM business had a significant increase in sales, up something like 50% in the last year. This was impacted by the discontinuation of applied DRAM by a competitor at the beginning of the fiscal year. The business had very high shares in both DRAM and NAND, with DRAM seeing a major impact due to the competition.
Q:What was the size of the advanced packaging business in fiscal year 2025 and how did it grow?
A:The advanced packaging business in fiscal year 2025 was a bit lower than in 2024, which was buoyed by high HBM shipments at the end of the year. In 2025, it maintained a steady level, with additional shipments towards the end of the year. The company anticipates growing significantly along with AI data centers and various packaging capabilities required over time.
Q:Where are the gains in market share with leading edge customers coming from?
A:The gains in market share with leading edge customers are coming from various segments such as high bandwidth memory, where the company is number one, driving innovation in input/output (IO) with its leadership products and foundry logic. Additionally, the company has a strong position in capacitor scaling, a strong etch share in DRAM, and has achieved patterning share gains.
Q:What are the company's expectations for the DRAM business in 2026?
A:The company expects the DRAM business to strengthen and experience healthy growth across customer investments for DRAM in 2026. This growth is attributed to not shipping to Chinese customers, who have been a factor in past years, and instead focusing on international markets.
Q:How does the company view its performance compared to US peers in the first few quarters of fiscal year 2025?
A:The company assesses its performance in the first few quarters of fiscal year 2025 as not being on a level playing field with its US peers, who are recording extremely strong double-digit growth. The company highlights that its performance includes both leading edge and ICASSP customers, recording record revenue in Taiwan and Korea.
Q:What is the forecast for growth in leading edge logic and DRAM for the second half of 2026?
A:The forecast for the second half of 2026 is that leading edge logic will be the strongest area of growth, followed by DRAM. Growth in both areas is expected to be strong, with timing depending on fabrication timing.
Q:What factors are expected to improve gross margins in the back half of 2026?
A:Gross margins are expected to increase in the back half of 2026 due to better cost absorption resulting from volume increases. The company is also working on pricing process improvements and cost reductions, which will continue into 2026. The improvements in pricing processes were the main driver of the increase in gross margins in 2025.

Applied Materials, Inc.
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