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应用材料公司 (AMAT.US) 2025财年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Applied Materials faces China market uncertainties and fluctuating demand but leverages strengths in AI, semiconductor tech, and advanced packaging. The company expects mid-single-digit growth in 2025, driven by record Q3 performance and investments in U.S. manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious financial approach and engaging with investors.
会议速览
2025 Fiscal Year Earnings Conference Call: Prepared remarks and Q&A session
This phone conference is discussing the revenue situation for the 2025 fiscal year. At the beginning of the meeting, all participants can only listen, and then will enter the question and answer session. The meeting will include predictive statements about future events, and actual results may deviate from the forecasts due to risks and uncertainties. The meeting also mentions the use of non-GAAP financial indicators and provides ways to access relevant financial reports.
In the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, Applied Materials' performance was impressive, and the company looks forward to the future of the semiconductor industry driven by AI.
Applied Materials performed well in the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, benefiting from strong demand in the semiconductor systems and services industry. However, the company has lowered its performance expectations for the fourth quarter, mainly due to uncertainty in its Chinese business. The company remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the industry, especially in the field of AI. It plans to invest in establishing advanced manufacturing facilities in the United States to support the growing demands of global clients. Future AI semiconductor innovation will focus on areas such as logic chips, memory technology, advanced packaging, and energy efficiency improvement. With its advantage in material science and engineering, Applied Materials is in a leading position in the industry.
Deepening customer cooperation and technological innovation driving growth in the semiconductor equipment market.
The dialogue content shows that semiconductor equipment suppliers can achieve faster growth than the market by deepening cooperation with customers and investing in the most promising application areas. Specific measures include focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as the transition from FinFET to GAA transistors, enhancing metal deposition business, and innovating DRAM and HPC memory solutions, thus expected to significantly increase market share around 2027. In addition, by adopting a vertical transistor architecture, suppliers anticipate further market expansion opportunities in advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory fields.
Semiconductor equipment giant Applied Materials: Leading AI chip innovation and market expansion
Applied Materials has a high market share in the packaging market, and in the coming years, its power electronics packaging business is expected to exceed $30 billion. By providing differentiated solutions, the company aims to increase its market share in the data center power semiconductor market, which is expected to reach $90 billion by the end of this decade. Applied Materials is accelerating AI chip architecture innovation through its global Epic platform, improving research and development efficiency, and plans to launch a new research and development center in Silicon Valley in the spring of 2026. Despite uncertainties in its business in China, the company expects to achieve growth for the sixth consecutive year in the fiscal year 2025, and remains optimistic about the competition in the semiconductor industry and its leadership position in AI in the long term.
The semiconductor equipment industry's Q3 performance was strong, with record high revenue.
It reported strong growth in its semiconductor systems, global services and display businesses, with semiconductor systems revenue reaching $5.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, global services revenue reaching $1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and display business revenue reaching $263 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%. Overall revenue reached $10 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 36.4% and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.48, reaching a historic high. In addition, the company's cash flow and free cash flow performance were excellent, with free cash flow reaching $2 billion.
Company outlook for Q1 performance: Slowdown in Chinese customer spending and decrease in high-end demand will have an impact.
The conversation covers the company's outlook for Q1 performance, citing a slowdown in Chinese customer spending and a decrease in demand from high-end customers as reasons for the decline in performance. It is expected that total revenue for Q1 will be $670 million, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the same period last year. Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $2.11, a decrease of 9% year-on-year. Revenue from semiconductor systems and AGS are down 9% and 2% respectively, but revenue from core services and OLED screen-related revenue has shown significant growth. The company is adjusting its strategy to focus on key applications to address short-term uncertainties, while maintaining its long-term growth strategy unchanged.
Analysis of the Prospect and Uncertainty of the Chinese and Logic Technology Market
The decrease in orders in the Chinese market, attributed to the digestion period after a large number of shipments in 2023 and 2024, was discussed. It is expected that this trend will continue for several quarters. Regarding logic technology, although there is strong demand, future growth is uneven due to factors such as trade uncertainty, delayed capital expenditure decisions, and high customer concentration. It is expected that advanced node capacity will significantly increase, but the specific timeline is still unclear.
Analysis of performance beyond expectations in China business and non-China business.
The dialogue discussed the significant growth of business in China exceeding expectations, as well as the weaker performance of non-China business. It was mentioned that the Chinese business contributed 30% of the revenue in this quarter, showing a significant increase compared to expectations, while business in other global regions remained relatively weak. Additionally, the impact of reduced demand for advanced process equipment on overall performance was analyzed, as well as expected adjustments for future quarters.
Global Capacity Adjustment and Regional Impact Analysis: Focus on China and Cutting-Edge Technology Fields.
Discussed the global capacity adjustment situation, pointed out that the reduction in production capacity in China and advanced technology fields is about 500, while emphasizing that the remaining global production capacity has a positive impact. However, specific customers affected were not mentioned, indicating that the adjustment was not caused by China.
Q1 and 26 fiscal year growth forecast: DRAM and leading logic drive.
The growth expectations for Q1 and fiscal year 2026 were discussed, emphasizing the strong performance of DRAM and leading-edge logic technology. Despite the uncertainty in the Chinese market, it is expected that the growth in these areas will be sufficient to offset potential negative impacts.
Challenges and prospects of the chip supply chain in China and globally
Discussion on the performance of the Chinese chip market in the third quarter exceeded expectations, but it is expected to return to normal in the fourth quarter and be lower than the level in 2024. It was pointed out that China is making a lot of new investments, but the growth rate is lower than expected. In addition, there is a deviation between the capacity planning and actual demand in the leading logic field, and it is expected that the business volume will continue to be lower than 2024 in the coming quarters.
Chinese licensing issues and relationships with global leading enterprise clients and expenditure forecasts.
Discussed the backlog of Chinese licenses, emphasizing that these licenses have not been included in future revenue forecasts. At the same time, elaborated on the relationships with global leading enterprise clients, as well as the mechanism for updating client expenditure forecasts, demonstrating a clear understanding of current client plans.
Advanced Packaging Business Growth Outlook and Market Position Analysis
The conversation discussed the future growth expectations of advanced packaging business. Despite a decline in investments in advanced logic, the business is expected to maintain steady growth, with the goal of surpassing $3 billion in the coming years. Applied Materials has a high market share in this field and is focused on enhancing energy-efficient computing through continuous innovation and collaboration with customers. They are optimistic about the market opportunities brought by AI and energy-efficient computing.
Analysis of Chinese Sales Trends and Regulatory Impact: Exploring Revenue Fluctuations and Future Expectations
Discussed the sales changes in China in different quarters, especially the sales fluctuations between April and July, as well as sales expectations for the October quarter. Mentioned the potential impact of licenses on revenue, but emphasized that it will not bring revenue growth in the short term, and the specific amount of the license was not disclosed.
Analysis of the growth trend of the DRAM market and the impact of HBM technology
The dialogue discussed the strong growth trend in the DRAM market, especially the driving effect of HBM technology on DRAM demand, and the expectations for the sustainability of future growth. It mentioned that HBM accounts for 15% of DRAM capacity and predicted that the DRAM market will continue to grow in early 2016, emphasizing that this is not a temporary fluctuation.
Advanced process technology and DRAM investment dynamics and future prospects
The dialogue discussed the investment in advanced manufacturing processes in the non-linear construction sector, as well as the strong performance of the DRAM market. It mentioned the capacity expansion of the gate all-around technology node, estimated to be in the early stages currently, with more nodes expected to follow in the future, demonstrating long-term growth potential.
Analysis of revenue forecasts for China's leading edge business in logic manufacturing outsourcing.
Discussed the stability of revenue in the Chinese market and the uncertainty of advanced edge business in logic outsourcing. It was pointed out that the revenue in the Chinese market is expected to remain stable in the next few quarters, while the logic outsourcing business is difficult to predict future revenue due to increased customer uncertainty. Emphasized the challenges of communicating with customers in an uncertain environment and the expected adjustments to multi-party investments.
In-depth exploration of the market share and expectations tracking of $4.5 billion in GAAR revenue.
Discussed the market share of $450 million in GAAR revenue, as well as comparisons with expectations, highlighted adjustments to the $500 million target and factors that did not go as planned, emphasizing that this is not a market share issue.
Advanced logic customer technology transformation and application revenue growth prospects.
The dialogue discussed the technological transformation of advanced logic customers in the fields of AI and energy efficient computing, including key nodes such as all-around gate and backside power distribution. The applied technology is leading in these areas, and it is expected that revenue will increase by about 30% with the same number of wafers started. Applied technology has extensive cooperation with customers, especially in transistors and wiring, possessing core enabling technologies to meet customer design requirements, and is expected to perform excellently in market share and revenue growth.
Discussion on the challenges in company revenue and future growth strategies
Discussed the company's cautious spending strategy when facing revenue challenges, as well as expectations for long-term growth markets, especially the dual exposure strategy in the logic and DRAM markets. Also mentioned collaborating with customers to gain clearer visibility for the coming quarters and emphasized the importance of technology advantages in gaining market share.
ICAP business growth challenges and global supply chain flexibility strategies
The discussion focused on the stable signs of ICAP's business in non-Chinese markets and the ongoing challenges in the Chinese market. It emphasized the flexibility of the global supply chain to cope with market uncertainties, while also looking forward to the future growth potential of ICAP's market and the company's continued focus on high-growth areas such as AI.
要点回答
Q:What is the expected impact of uncertainties in the China business on Applied Materials' revenue and earnings?
A:Due to uncertainties in the China business, Applied Materials expects revenue and earnings to be sequentially lower in the fourth quarter.
Q:What are the key factors that influence Applied Materials' outlook for the current quarter?
A:The key factors influencing Applied Materials' outlook for the current quarter include adjusting capacity, a large backlog of pending export license applications (assumed none will be issued in the next quarter), and non-linear demand from leading edge customers linked to market concentration and fab timing.
Q:What are the five key areas of focus for the next wave of AI semiconductor innovation according to Gary Dickerson?
A:The five key areas of focus for the next wave of AI semiconductor innovation are leading edge logic, next generation high performance DRAM, high bandwidth memory or DRAM stacking, advanced packaging to connect logic and memory chips, and innovations in power electronics for data centers.
Q:How is the transition from fin field to gate-all-around transistors with backside power delivery expected to impact revenue for Applied Materials?
A:The transition from fin field to gate-all-around transistors with backside power delivery is expected to grow Applied Materials' revenue opportunity by 30% for the equivalent fab capacity when these nodes ramp in the second half of 2025 and 2026.
Q:What recent successes in the semiconductor business does Applied Materials report in the current quarter?
A:In the current quarter, Applied Materials' strength in leading edge foundry logic supported nearly $1 billion in revenue for the metal deposition business, and they secured their first wins in mali deposition for critical device performance applications in DRAM. They also have strong market share and expect revenue from leading edge DRAM customers to be up around 10% in the fiscal quarter.
Q:How is the packaging market expected to grow for Applied Materials, and what are the anticipated future revenues in the power electronics segment?
A:Applied Materials has a high share in the packaging market and is well positioned for future architecture inflections. The packaging business is on track to more than double, growing to greater than $3 billion over the next few years. The market for data center power semiconductors is expected to grow to $9 billion by the end of the decade, and Applied Materials is on track to grow its share of this market with highly differentiated solutions.
Q:What is the significance of the Global Epic Platform and the Epic Center in Silicon Valley for Applied Materials?
A:The Global Epic Platform and the Epic Center in Silicon Valley are critical to Applied Materials' strategy for providing unique physical and digital infrastructure to accelerate AI chip architecture inflections and improve R&D spending efficiency. The Epic Center is expected to begin operations in spring 2026 and will play a significant role in the company's ability to bring disruptive architectures to market and to work with customers and partners to increase the development and commercialization speed of next generation technologies.
Q:What was the performance of Applied Materials in the third fiscal quarter?
A:In the third fiscal quarter, Applied Materials delivered record revenues and earnings, with growth across all three segments. The company achieved robust growth of nearly 49%, record non GAAP earnings per share in semiconductor systems, and overall demand was in line with expectations, supported by broad-based customer investments across various sectors. Applied Global Services (AGS) also achieved record core services revenue, and the display business recorded its second consecutive quarter of revenue growth.
Q:What were the financial highlights for the third fiscal quarter?
A:Financial highlights for the third fiscal quarter included total net revenue of approximately $6.6 billion, up year over year, and a robust non GAAP gross margin. Non GAAP operating expenses were slightly down as a percentage of revenue, and non GAAP earnings per share reached a record $2.48, up 17% year over year. Semiconductor systems revenue was $5.43 billion, with growth in foundry logic driven by customer investments in advanced nodes, despite decreases in Icap nodes. Non GAAP operating margin was 36.4%, up 140 basis points year over year.
Q:What caused the sequential revenue decline in the upcoming quarter?
A:The sequential revenue decline in the upcoming quarter is attributed to two main factors: first, customer spending in China is expected to moderate following several periods of increased equipment investments, leading to a decrease in China's revenue percentage; second, demand from leading edge customers is expected to be down due to a nonlinear pattern influenced by market concentration and fabrication facility timing, causing customers to be slower in committing to orders.
Q:What are the revenue expectations for the upcoming quarter?
A:For the upcoming quarter, the revenue expectations are a total revenue of $6.7 billion plus or minus $500 million, a decrease of 4.9% year over year at the midpoint. The semiconductor systems revenue is expected to be approximately $4.7 billion, down about 9% year over year, while AGS revenue is expected to be approximately $1.6 billion, down 2% year over year. Core services are expected to grow significantly year over year, supported by expansion in OLED screens in consumer devices.
Q:What are the expected trends in China's business for the upcoming quarters?
A:The speaker indicates that due to large shipments into China in 2023 and 2024, there is an expectation of lower business in 2025 and this is expected to continue for several more quarters. The reduction in business is attributed to 'digestion' of the large inventories and the restrictions mentioned in the Q4 guide.
Q:How did the leading edge business perform in the current quarter and what impact did it have on overall revenue?
A:The leading edge business experienced less activity in the quarter than expected. The anticipated acceleration in revenue from the leading edge did not materialize, leading to a lower-than-anticipated growth rate. Specifically, the expectation was for nearly $500 billion in gate-all-round related purchases in 2025, but now it's likely to be lower, around $4.5 trillion, representing 80% growth instead of 100%. The change in the leading edge's performance is the primary reason for the adjustment in the company's outlook.
Q:What factors are contributing to the stronger-than-expected performance in China?
A:The stronger-than-expected performance in China was not attributed to any specific factors, but the speaker implies that it may be related to the previously unanticipated growth in China's business which was not significantly stronger than expected relative to the rest of the business.
Q:What is the expected impact of the changes in China and leading edge business on overall revenue guidance?
A:The revenue guidance is being impacted by a decrease of approximately $500 million in China's revenue and $500 million in leading edge revenue. Additionally, there are some upside contributions from the rest of the world's revenue. The sequential decline in revenue is also noted to be greater than the drop in the leading edge revenue, suggesting an impact on other segments as well.
Q:What visibility does the company have regarding the revenue expectations for the upcoming fiscal year?
A:The company indicates that there is uncertainty and lower visibility in the current environment which makes it difficult to provide specific guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, including Q1. They are not able to give any specific color for Q1 due to customers being later in making their commitments.
Q:What factors are considered to determine the strength of leading edge memory and its impact on offsetting a lower-than-anticipated year in China?
A:The factors considered to determine the strength of leading edge memory and its impact on offsetting a lower-than-anticipated year in China include the overall momentum in the space, the significant performance advantages of leading edge processes, and the rising cloud CapEx. However, the exact impact on offsetting a lower year in China is still uncertain and will require observation over time.
Q:What challenges are faced in China regarding the availability of clean space and the visibility of future plans?
A:The challenges faced in China regarding the availability of clean space and the visibility of future plans are attributed to timing and availability of clean space, as well as difficulties in obtaining visibility on future plans due to the lack of new fabrication facilities. These challenges are compounded by the expectation that the business in China will remain below 2024 levels for several more quarters.
Q:Why did robust shipments occur in Q3 despite the challenges in Q4 with respect to China?
A:Robust shipments occurred in Q3 despite challenges in Q4 due to strategic delivery schedules by customers. There were uncertainties that played out differently throughout the first half of the year, leading to deliveries being shifted between the two quarters. Q4 saw a return to the expected levels of business, which is lower than Q3 but in line with the forecast.
Q:How are potential impacts from second-tier players in leading edge spending reflected in your planning?
A:Potential impacts from second-tier players in leading edge spending are reflected in the planning through updates on a medium-term basis with customers, typically twice a quarter. The company acknowledges a higher concentration of demand on leading edge than before and has an understanding of the customers' current plans.
Q:What is the expected growth in advanced packaging for this fiscal year and how is it positioned against the backdrop of weaker advanced logic spending?
A:The expected growth in advanced packaging for this fiscal year is steady, similar to last year's pace without the initial burst capacity from HBM at the end of the previous year. There are no changes expected in the leading edge schedules or purchasing behaviors. The advanced packaging segment is the highest market share area for Applied Materials, with a strong portfolio and unique integrated research and development center for next-generation architectures. There are also plans to more than double the business to over $3 billion per year.
Q:What are the four areas that are important for power and performance in AI and energy-efficient computing?
A:The four areas that are important for power and performance in AI and energy-efficient computing are not explicitly mentioned in the transcript. The speaker mentions that they are spending a tremendous amount of time with customers discussing new architectures in this space.
Q:What was the impact of the April sales figures on subsequent quarters, specifically China revenue?
A:The speaker indicates that the revenue from China in the April quarter was affected by the timing of sales due to trade and tariff uncertainties being resolved towards the end of the quarter. They mention that they made the quarter as expected and the revenue was indicative of the level of business expected for the year despite some digestion in China.
Q:What is the significance of the revenue numbers mentioned for the October quarter and what is the implication for gross margin?
A:The revenue number mentioned for the October quarter is $500 million, which is related to licensing. The implication is that these licensing changes affect the trajectory of the business, which is considered unfortunate, but there is no immediate upside for revenue or gross margin from this.
Q:How should the recent growth in leading edge DRAM be interpreted in terms of its sustainability?
A:The recent growth in leading edge DRAM should be viewed as strong and sustainable, according to the speaker. The growth is not considered a temporary pop but is indicative of underlying trends, with HBM growing at 30% to 40% and a significant demand pull in DRAM making it clear that the growth is not a blip.
Q:What is the impact of the fab timing on the next quarter's revenue, especially in terms of leading logic and foundry capacity?
A:The impact of the fab timing on the next quarter's revenue is related to leading logic and foundry capacity. The upcoming build-out related to 10nm and 7nm nodes is described as being in the initial stages, with an expectation for subsequent nodes. The DRAM business is also strong and is a factor in the nonlinearity of builds and capacity in the foundry segment.
Q:How significant were multinational sales in the last quarter and are they expected to continue at the same level or decline?
A:Multinational sales were significant in the last quarter and contributed noticeable revenue. In the upcoming quarters, the expectation is for revenue from China to remain at the levels seen in the second and fourth quarters, regardless of whether incremental licenses are received.
Q:What visibility does the company have regarding the revenues for the next few quarters in China and the logic foundry leading edge part of the business?
A:The company has visibility on near-term expectations for China and has anticipated that revenue cannot maintain the same rate as seen previously. In the logic foundry leading edge part of the business, the visibility is not possible due to the spread being too wide.
Q:What efforts has the company made to maintain visibility with customers during Covid?
A:The company focused on building good visibility with customers on multi-year demand and build plans during Covid. However, in the uncertain environment, this visibility has decreased as customers have become less certain.
Q:How is the company characterizing its share position in the GAA ramp and does it track with expectations?
A:The company characterizes its share position as very high in the architecture inflection for leading edge logic customers. It does not provide a specific revenue ramp but mentions that the engagements with customers are earlier, deeper, and broader than ever.
Q:What is the significance of the recent investments in gate-all-around and backside power distribution for AI and energy-efficient computing?
A:The investments in gate-all-around and backside power distribution are crucial for AI and energy-efficient computing. Applied is in a strong position with these customers, with engagements that are earlier, deeper, and broader than ever, and the company is confident in outperforming on these technologies.
Q:Can the company provide more insight into the ramping of its share in gate-all-around and backside power?
A:The company expects the ramp in share in gate-all-around and backside power to happen, but they will work on the loading plan for the next couple of quarters. They expect increased investment across the long term in leading edge logic and DRAM markets.
Q:What is the expected trend for Opex given the challenges in revenues?
A:The company has been closer to the Ed rate (16%) for some time, but considering the revenue guide, they will be very cautious on spending in the next quarter. The expectation is to behave in a manner consistent with being closer to the Ed rate.
Q:Is the weakness in China affecting the non-China Icap business and how should one view the future growth of the Icap business?
A:The company still sees lower utilizations across Icaps, but there are green shoots, such as a pickup on the industrial side and increased investments in the rest of the world. The Icap market is expected to grow, but the impact of China on the overall market going forward is uncertain.
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