应用材料公司(AMAT.US)2025财年第二季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

Applied Materials reported record earnings per share in Q2 fiscal 2025, driven by strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion. The company attributes its success to effective global operations and supply chain agility, maintaining steady demand amid dynamic market conditions. Key growth areas include leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, and AI-driven semiconductor innovations, despite trade restrictions impacting China sales. Applied Materials anticipates continued revenue growth, bolstered by its service business and innovative solutions, positioning it for future industry leadership.

会议速览

Applied Materials 2Q Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call

The call begins with a reminder of the forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures that will be discussed, emphasizing the potential for actual results to differ materially.

Applied Materials' Strong Q2 2025 Results and Market Outlook Driven by AI and Semiconductor Innovation

Applied Materials reported record earnings per share in Q2 2025, driven by strong execution and agile global operations. The company is positioned for multiyear growth amid technology inflections, particularly in AI, IoT, automation, electric vehicles, and clean energy. Significant shifts in wafer fab equipment market spending are noted, with substantial growth in leading-edge foundry logic and DRAM investment, lower spending in China, and an uptick in NAND investment.

Applied Materials' Growth and Innovation Strategies Amid Market Challenges

Despite market access restrictions and trade impacts, Applied Materials experienced growth in core parts and services revenues, attributing success to leadership in Edge Foundry and DRAM, and a strategy focusing on high-velocity co-innovation. The company anticipates further revenue increases from advanced DRAM and Foundry Logic technologies, driven by industry roadmap advancements and the construction of a new flagship RD facility.

Applied Materials Reports Strong Q2 Fiscal 2025 Results and Outlook

The company reported robust year-over-year revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and record earnings per share for Q2 fiscal 2025, driven by increased investments in leading-edge foundry logic and AI-enabling semiconductors. Despite evolving economic and trade policies, the company successfully navigated the dynamic commercial landscape with strong profitability. Key segments including semiconductor systems, applied global services, and display business showed growth, with a focus on critical technology and R&D. The company also increased shareholder capital distributions and announced a 15% increase in dividend per share and an additional share repurchase authorization.

Impact of China Restrictions on Semiconductor Equipment Growth

Despite expectations of sequential growth in the Ags segment, performance has been flat or slightly down due to heightened trade restrictions in China, particularly affecting 200mm script millimeter equipment. The core business is anticipated to grow at low double digits annually, with full effects of trade rules visible in Q3, followed by expected sequential growth.

Analysis of Recurring Revenue and Business Growth Prospects

The company emphasizes its strong recurring revenue model with high renewal rates for multi-year contracts, accounting for 60% of the business under subscription agreements. However, recent performance fell short of expectations due to weaker script metrics and flat utilization. The power electronics sector, contributing significantly to the business, is experiencing a downturn in the near term, impacting overall performance. Despite this, there's confidence in low double-digit growth for the service segment through innovation and the expansion of connected tools in the field.

Applied Materials' Strategy and Growth Prospects in Semiconductor Markets

The company anticipates mid to high single-digit growth in mature logic, IoT, communications, auto, power, and sensor markets, targeting the trillion-dollar semiconductor market by 2030. China constitutes mid-20s percent of total revenue, including equipment and services, with restrictions in some accounts but strong performance and growth expectations in others. The focus on AI drivers like high-performance logic, DRAM, compute memory, high-bandwidth memory, packaging, and power electronics positions the company for strong growth, aided by script nanometer investments and new product innovations in cost-sensitive markets.

Update on Gross Margins, Tariff Impact, and Future Trajectory

The company discusses its gross margins, noting a current operating level of around 48-48.3% with a modest impact from tariffs. They highlight progress in pricing, cost management, and logistics, emphasizing sustainable margin improvement through value-based pricing and efficient manufacturing operations.

Strong Growth in DRAM Market Driven by HBM and AI Data Center Demand

Despite perceived low spending in DRAM, the sector, particularly HBM, is experiencing significant growth fueled by AI data center requirements. HBM is expected to constitute a large portion of DRAM wafer starts, growing at a rate similar to AI data center components. The company anticipates continued strong performance and market share gains in DRAM, especially with the upcoming adoption of the 4F squared architecture.

Acceleration in Leading Edge Technology Spending and Integrated System Solutions Penetration

The company observes an acceleration in spending on leading edge foundry logic and memory technologies, with a significant pickup expected in the second half of the year. Additionally, the penetration of integrated system solutions is anticipated to grow at a steady rate, reflecting the increasing demand for advanced technologies in the AI and data center markets.

Clarification on Yearly Growth and Market Trends in Semiconductor Equipment Industry

The company anticipates low double-digit growth in its core services for the year, excluding 200mm equipment sales, despite challenges in serving certain Chinese accounts. Trends in the business appear durable, with demand and leading-edge acceleration continuing without significant changes. Questions also arise regarding the company's leadership in new technologies and competition, especially from Chinese competitors, in segments like gate-all-around, backside power delivery, and CMP.

Strategic Positioning and Collaborations in AI-Driven Semiconductor Innovations

The company is strongly positioned in AI-driven sectors like high performance logic and DRAM, expecting to gain market share through deep customer relationships and collaborations. Significant advancements include an extended collaboration agreement with Bessie, focusing on energy-efficient compute solutions and integrated hybrid bonding products for advanced AI memory chips, contributing to robust growth in the advanced packaging business.

Revenue Guidance Assumptions for July Quarter 2025

A question is posed regarding the key assumptions underlying the low and high ends of the revenue guidance for the July quarter, set between Ed Ed to Ed Hood billion.

Adjustment of Revenue Range Due to Increased Market Volatility

The revenue range has been widened by 100 million due to heightened volatility in the macroeconomic, market, geopolitical, and trade environments, reflecting the business's growth and unpredictable scenarios.

Insights on NAND Business Growth and Advanced Packaging Strategies in Semiconductor Industry

The dialogue discusses the increasing revenue and regulatory changes impacting the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the growth of the NAND business and the strategies for advanced packaging amid evolving technologies and risks.

Innovations in Advanced Packaging for High-Performance Computing

The industry is experiencing significant innovation in advanced packaging, connecting high-performance logic, compute memory DRAM, and high bandwidth memory. The company has invested in this area, leads the market, and operates an advanced packaging lab in Singapore collaborating closely with customers to shape industry roadmaps. With high visibility into industry trends and deep customer relationships, the company is confident in its ability to expand its total available market in packaging and maintain high growth rates.

Applied Materials' Strategy and Market Competitiveness in China's Semiconductor Industry

Despite the emergence of new competitors in China, Applied Materials is confident in maintaining and growing its market share due to its strong innovation pipeline and significant cost innovations in the icaps market.

Advanced Logic Technology Inflection and Its Impact on Wafer Capacity Expansion

Despite geoeconomic concerns, there's confidence in the significant demand for wafer capacity expansion driven by the growth in data centers, particularly in AI components, with leading-edge factories at full utilization. Recent announcements from major cloud service providers and foundries indicate substantial energy around the technology roadmap, anticipating a strong build-out of the upcoming 2 nm and 16 angstrom nodes.

Outlook for Semiconductor Industry Growth Amidst Technological Advancements

The industry is targeting a $1.3 trillion market by 2030, driven by AI, data centers, robotics, and large language models, expecting smooth growth despite potential year-to-year variability.

Applied Materials' Q2 2025 Earnings Call: Segment Growth and Industry Collaborations

The company discusses record-level operations, navigating economic dynamics, significant industry collaborations, and segment growth expectations for the next quarter, highlighting stable DRAM, growing NAND, and accelerated foundry and logic segments.

要点回答

Q：What were the key financial results and operational highlights for Applied Materials in the second fiscal quarter of 2025?

A：In the second fiscal quarter of 2025, Applied Materials delivered strong results, including record earnings per share. These results were attributed to the company's teams' execution, agility, and flexibility in global operations and supply chain. The company grew its core parts and services revenues in the low double-digit range and is on track to deliver a similar growth rate in 2025.

Q：What impact is AI expected to have on semiconductor technology and the global economy?

A：Artificial Intelligence (AI) is considered the most transformative technology of our lifetimes with almost limitless potential use cases. It will require major advances in computing performance and energy efficiency, which are reshaping the semiconductor road map. This is anticipated to change the way chips are designed and manufactured, and it is a central factor in the future market outlook.

Q：How is the investment in leading edge technology affecting the semiconductor equipment market?

A：The investment in leading edge technology is significantly impacting the semiconductor equipment market, leading to a shift in the spending mix. There is substantial investment growth in leading edge foundry logic, substantial growth in spending for leading edge DRAM, and a decrease in investments in China, with both DRAM and mature logic spending lower for the year. There is also an uptick in NAND investment from very low levels.

Q：How is Applied positioned in the market, especially in China, and what is their outlook for the future?

A：Outside of China, Applied grew faster than its peer group, thanks to its strength in leading edge foundry and DRAM. Despite market access restrictions and trade headwinds in China, the company's core parts and services revenues grew in the low double-digit range and are on track to deliver a similar growth rate in 2025. The company is successfully increasing the portion of its systems covered by advanced services and comprehensive service agreements.

Q：What are the expected revenue growth areas for Applied in the future?

A：In the future, Applied expects revenue growth from advanced foundry logic and advanced DRAM. Revenues from advanced DRAM customers are expected to grow more than 40% as they ramp investments in DDR 5 and high bandwidth memory. Additionally, the company is introducing innovative new solutions that are being rapidly adopted by the market, such as the Sim 3 Magnum Et system and breakthrough cold field emission ebeam technology.

Q：How does the company's strategy of high velocity co-innovation contribute to their competitive position?

A：The company's strategy of high velocity co-innovation aims to increase the speed of developing and commercializing next generation technologies through earlier and deeper collaboration with customers and partners. This strategy contributes to the company's competitive position by enabling them to bring new technologies to the market faster and to deliver unique solutions that combine their innovations with the pace of technology.

Q：What were the key financial results for the fiscal first quarter?

A：The key financial results for the fiscal first quarter included robust year-over-year revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and record earnings per share. These results were driven by increased investments in leading edge foundry logic due to strong demand for AI-enabling semiconductors. The company successfully navigated the dynamic commercial landscape with a strong profitability and record earnings per share. Total net revenue was approximately $7 billion with growth across all business segments, non-GAAP gross margin was the highest since the fiscal year, and non-GAAP operating expenses were down slightly as a percentage of revenue.

Q：How does the company expect the revenue growth and profitability to be distributed across segments in the upcoming fiscal quarter?

A：The company expects revenue growth and profitability to be distributed across segments as follows: semiconductor systems revenue is projected to increase by 15% year over year to $5.6 billion, driven by continued investments in leading edge foundry logic. Applied Global Services (AGS) is expected to grow with 2% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.6 billion, while the display business is forecasted to deliver revenue of approximately $259 million.

Q：What was the impact of revenue growth and share repurchases on capital allocation?

A：The impact of revenue growth and share repurchases on capital allocation was significant. The company increased shareholder capital distributions through dividends and share repurchases, amounting to approximately $1.5 billion in dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. Capital expenditures of $510 million were allocated towards the build-out of equipment and process innovation and commercialization centers. As a result, free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $5 billion, and total shareholder distributions were around $1.5 billion.

Q：What is the company's outlook for the year-over-year performance in the upcoming fiscal quarter?

A：The company's outlook for the year-over-year performance in the upcoming fiscal quarter indicates an acceleration in revenue growth from leading edge foundry logic products, which will offset a lower level of investment in ICAP design. It also anticipates a stable and healthy DRAM market and growth in NAND driven by upgrades. The expected total revenue for the upcoming fiscal quarter is between $7.5 billion and $7.8 billion, a 6% increase year over year at the midpoint. Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $2.35, representing an 11% increase year over year at the midpoint.

Q：How does the company anticipate the trade restrictions impact on the Ags segment will affect future growth?

A：The company anticipates that the Ags segment will continue to grow at low double digits going forward as it adapts to the new trade rules. While the Ags business saw a significant slowdown in script millimeter equipment during the quarter, which impacted performance, the company expects core business to resume sequential growth in the upcoming fiscal quarter following Q3. This sequential growth is expected to reflect the low double-digit growth moving forward despite the challenges posed by trade restrictions.

Q：What percentage of the business is recurring revenue and what is the renewal rate?

A：About 60% of the businesses under subscription agreements contribute to the recurring revenue and profit perspective of the company.

Q：What factors contributed to the script business being weaker than expected?

A：The script business was weaker than expected due to two main factors: it might be a little bit less than anticipated, and there was a flat utilization rate for the quarter, which impacted the spare side of the business.

Q：What is the expected growth for the power electronics business and what is the current status of service innovation?

A：The power electronics business is expected to grow in the mid to high single digits in the long term, but is currently down from previous levels. The company is driving a lot of service innovation, with 8000 tools connected in the field, and there is high confidence that this will grow at low double digits going forward.

Q：Can you provide the percentage of sales that ICASSPs represent and their growth expectations?

A：ICASSPs (Integrated Circuits for Specific Applications) have a projected growth of mid to high single digits across the horizon towards a $2 trillion market by 2030 from a semiconductors perspective.

Q：What is the current and expected share of the China business in terms of ICASSPs?

A：The China business for ICASSPs accounts for about 25% of the segment's sales, and the company expects this market to grow. Specifically, China is investing more in Ed (Extreme Ultraviolet) nanometer technology, focusing on 28nm nodes where the company is well positioned, with a leading foundry position.

Q：How does the company plan to balance value-based pricing, cost reductions, and manufacturing across different locations?

A：The company's approach to balance value-based pricing, cost reductions, and manufacturing involves a flexible global supply chain. They have made good progress on pricing, cost management, and logistics improvements. Despite modest impacts from tariffs, the company has been able to manage the environment well and expects to continue making improvements to margin levels going forward.

Q：What is the company's outlook on sustaining margin improvements and future cost reductions?

A：The company is confident in sustaining margin improvements and continuing to drive cost reductions. They have made progress over the past few years and believe that the initiatives in cost improvements and value capture will lead to sustainable progress in future years.

Q：What is the expected growth for HBM in the context of DRAM spending?

A：HBM is expected to grow significantly in the year, reaching Ed points as a component of DRAM, at a similar growth rate to AI data center components. This growth is contributing to high levels of operation for the entire DRAM sector, including HBM equipment, and last year was a record year with this year potentially being a record or near-record year.

Q：How does the growth of HBM reflect on the strength of the DRAM market?

A：The strength of the DRAM market is reflected in its being pulled by AI leading edge and the associated compute memory needs. HBM is an example of this strength, demonstrating how these components are contributing to the robustness of the market.

Q：What are the expectations for the growth and market share in the DRAM industry?

A：The expectations for the growth and market share in the DRAM industry are positive. Over a decade, there has been a gain of Ed points in market share, with compute memory being one of the fastest-growing areas of the market, particularly in AI data centers. There has been strong growth with 40% growth for DDR 5 and HBM, and the adoption of new architectures like 4F squared is expected to be a significant opportunity for the company to outperform and continue strong growth in the DRAM market.

Q：What is the anticipated trend in spending on leading edge technologies for the second half of the year?

A：The anticipated trend in spending on leading edge technologies for the second half of the year is a significant acceleration. This is supported by industry trends such as cloud service providers increasing CapEx, new factory announcements, and increased spending from leading logic companies. These factors indicate that the investment in leading edge technologies is expected to persist and grow throughout the year.

Q：How does the company expect the integrated equipment segment to perform in terms of growth?

A：The company expects the integrated equipment segment to grow at an approximate rate of 7%, which is almost in line with the current growth rate of the business. This growth is attributed to the demand for technology around AI data centers, including DRAM, HBM, advanced packaging, and leading logic, all of which are expected to grow significantly.

Q：What is the projected growth for the first half and second half of the year in terms of Applied Materials' business?

A：The projected growth for the first half and second half of the year in terms of Applied Materials' business is nearly Ed. The company has not seen any change in the trajectory of demand or trends in the recent days, indicating continued growth.

Q：Is the growth expected to be consistent across the year or will there be a notable change in growth between the first half and the second half?

A：The growth is not expected to be consistent across the year with a flat trajectory between the first half and the second half. The company does not provide specific guidance for the latter part of the year, but mentions that year-over-year growth for the company so far is almost Ed and that the trends pulling the business are fairly durable.

Q：What is the expected growth for the core business of Applied Materials for the year?

A：The expected growth for the core business of Applied Materials for the year is low double-digit growth. This is based on strong performance even after losing the ability to serve some accounts in China, with records expected in the current and next quarter. However, the full-year growth will be impacted by 200 mm equipment sales, which will likely make the overall growth look smaller for the year.

Q：What are the key inflections that the company is well-positioned to gain share in, and which segments are driven by AI?

A：The company is well-positioned to capture more than its fair share in the inflections towards high performance logic and DRAM, with AI being the driving force in these segments.

Q：What is the company's position in the high bandwidth memory market?

A：The company has a strong position and high share in the high bandwidth memory market.

Q：How is the company positioned in advanced packaging, and what is the significance of the architecture inflections mentioned?

A：The company is very well positioned in advanced packaging, with deep relationships with customers and high visibility on their positions for major architecture inflections, which are expected to drive earlier and deeper collaborations with customers.

Q：What is the nature of the collaboration between the speaker's company and Bessie, and how is it expected to contribute to the energy roadmap?

A：The collaboration between the speaker's company and Bessie is focused on energy-efficient compute, combining solutions for die away for bonding with their perspective on energy efficiency to contribute to the energy roadmap going forward.

Q：What is the impact of the recent investment in Bessie, and what is the speaker's perspective on the importance of the integrated hybrid bonding product?

A：The recent investment in Bessie is related to the extended collaboration agreement, and the integrated hybrid bonding product with six technologies is seen as a meaningful growth driver for advanced packaging and a key innovation for AI memory chips.

Q：What is the reason for the extended range in the revenue guide for the July quarter, and how does it reflect on the current market conditions?

A：The extended range in the revenue guide for the July quarter reflects the increased size of the business and the introduction of more market volatility due to macro, geopolitical, and trade factors. The decision to widen the range was made to indicate more environmental volatility than usual.

Q：Which business segment is believed to be more impacted by the revenue size and regulatory changes, and why?

A：The impact of revenue size and regulatory changes is believed to be more in the ICAP business than the leading edge, primarily due to the larger revenue size and the changes in utilization and regulations that create more uncertainty.

Q：What is the sustainability of growth in the NAND business and what is driving it?

A：The sustainability of growth in the NAND business is driven by upgrades in process technologies and factory advancements to the latest nodes. Most investments are focused on density advancements from a technology perspective, and utilization does not significantly change these plans.

Q：How does the company's visibility in industry trends translate into strategic bets?

A：The company's visibility into industry trends, due to deep and connected relationships with customers and a broad, unique, and connected portfolio, allows for strategic bets to be placed with high visibility on where to invest.

Q：What are the reasons for the company's confidence in continued growth in packaging?

A：The company's confidence in continued growth in packaging stems from driving innovations that will expand the total available market and the fact that it has grown significantly in packaging revenue over the last few years, with plans to maintain a high growth rate.

Q：What is the potential impact of emerging companies like Sichuan Carrier on the packaging market and Applied Materials' market share?

A：The potential impact of emerging companies like Sichuan Carrier on the packaging market and Applied Materials' market share is not explicitly discussed in the transcript, but the question suggests concerns about the emergence of new competitors and their potential impact on market share.

Q：How does the company view the future growth potential of the semiconductor market?

A：The company views the future growth potential of the semiconductor market positively, with a forecast of a robust demand driven by data centers and leading-edge technology factories operating at high utilization rates. The company's innovation pipeline is seen as a key to expanding markets and maintaining a competitive position.

Q：How does the company expect the semiconductor market to respond to the economic concerns?

A：The company expects the semiconductor market to continue to show strong demand despite economic concerns, with a focus on investments in key technologies such as AI and data centers, which are seen as enduring trends supported by actual investments from cloud service providers and foundries.

Q：What is the segment growth forecast for the upcoming quarter and next year?

A：The segment growth forecast for the upcoming quarter indicates year-over-year growth for foundry and logic, with leading edge more than offsetting ICAP sales. For next year, the company's anchor is set at $1.3 trillion for the semiconductor industry by 2030, indicating a positive growth trajectory.

Q：What is the projected growth and revenue range for the semiconductor industry by 2030?

A：The projected growth and revenue range for the semiconductor industry by 2030 is forecasted to reach $1.3 trillion, with a suggestion to use various assumptions to gauge the potential growth in the equipment business over the ensuing years.

Q：What is the company's outlook on growth for the next few years?

A：The company's outlook on growth for the next few years is optimistic, with a projection towards a significant build-out of technology and a focus on investments in innovation. The company anticipates a smooth growth trajectory, with unevenness expected, until reaching the 2030 goal.

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