哈里伯顿公司 (HAL.US) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

Q3 2026 revenue of $5.7B exceeded expectations, with international up 9% to $3.5B and North America down 9% to $2.2B. Adjusted operating margin was 12.8%, adjusted EPS $0.60, and $250M in share repurchases; free cash flow declined sequentially but is expected to improve in Q4. International growth is ahead of schedule, with strong D&E activity in the Middle East, Latin America, Brazil, and the East Mediterranean, and a transformational Iraq project slated for H1 next year. Venezuela is operational and generating revenue, with potential to return to over $500M annually. In North America, the frac market is being reset with a focus on profitability and foundational contracts, while non-frac businesses grew 23% year-over-year. The 2027 outlook calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion to approximately 15%.

会议速览

Halliburton's Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Growth & Market Outlook

Halliburton reports Q3 2026 revenue of $5.7 billion with a 12.8% adjusted operating margin. International revenue grew 9% year-over-year, while North America saw a 9% decline. The company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth and 200 basis points margin expansion for 2027, driven by increased demand for oilfield services amid global energy disruptions.

Halliburton's Global Growth and Resilience Amidst North America Challenges

Halliburton's international businesses thrive, with Middle East and other regions showing strong growth and profitability. The company emphasizes technological innovation, collaborative value propositions, and execution excellence. Despite North America's hydraulic fracturing market challenges, Halliburton's growth path remains robust, with opportunities for further improvement and recovery considered as potential upside.

Global Expansion and Revenue Growth in Oil and Gas Services

Announcement of achieving $3 billion annual revenue target by 2028, with emphasis on international expansion, including successful operations in Argentina, UAE, Congo, Brazil, and Venezuela, and the introduction of innovative technologies like artificial lift systems and unconventional insulation.

Halliburton's Q3 Revenue Down 5% Sequentially, but Sees Growth in Drilling Services and Drill Bits

Despite a 5% sequential decline in Q3 revenue due to weaker frac market recovery and unexpected downtime, Halliburton's drilling services and drill bits businesses grew 23% year over year. The company attributes this success to increasing demand for complex wells and advanced technologies, which are driving growth in North America production. Halliburton remains committed to differentiating its offerings through technology and efficiency, while generating solid cash flow and focusing on safety and execution across its global operations.

Q3 Financials, CNP Division Challenges, and Future Outlook for Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company reported Q3 adjusted net income of 60 cents per diluted share, with CNP division underperforming due to reduced hydraulic fracturing activity and delayed Saudi Arabia contract startup. Dne division exceeded expectations, contributing to overall revenue and margin improvements. Looking ahead, the company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2027, driven by steady activity in key regions, cost reduction initiatives, and successful implementation of global transformation efforts, aiming for a 15% operating margin. Q4 guidance projects flat revenue and improved margins, with earnings per share expected between 62 to 64 cents.

2027 Framework: Margin Improvement and Middle East Market Resilience

A discussion on achieving a 200 basis point margin improvement by 2027, emphasizing cost savings and incremental margins. Highlights the Middle East's resilience and growth in unconventional resources, driven by technology investments and market expansion.

Latin America's Growth Opportunities in Energy Sector

Discusses significant growth prospects in Latin America's energy sector, highlighting Argentina's unconventional growth, Venezuela's renewed business opportunities, and Mexico's potential for H2 recovery. Emphasizes the role of value propositions and customer confidence in winning major contracts with global energy firms.

Investor Engagement: Q&A Session with JP Morgan's Representative

A Q&A session is initiated by a JP Morgan representative, focusing on company updates and financial discussions, demonstrating strong investor engagement and interest in the company's performance.

Early Confidence in Revenue and Margin Growth Guidance

Discusses confidence in early revenue and margin growth guidance, emphasizing technology adoption, cost structure adjustments, and a robust international presence. Highlights the impact of these factors on future growth, independent of North American frac recovery.

Opportunities in North American Frac Market Amid Tight Capacity

The dialogue highlights the current tight market conditions in North America's frac sector, with limited capacity driving up prices and increasing demand. Despite conservative expectations, there are positive indicators of growth, including increased activity from customers and price hikes. The speakers foresee significant opportunities for expansion in 2027, driven by the market's inability to meet growing demands.

Analysis of North American Frac Pricing Momentum and Middle East Incremental Costs

Discussed factors influencing North American Frac pricing, emphasizing customer activity and deliberate operational choices. Also, examined incremental costs in the Middle East due to logistical challenges, with potential margin upside if conditions normalize.

Analysis of 2027 Margin Improvement and Venezuela Business Prospects

Discussion covers cost reduction strategies and inflation impacts on 2027 margins, estimating $250-$300 million in savings. Venezuela's potential as a significant market for future growth is highlighted, with initial focus on interventions and ongoing expansion.

Middle East Business Resilience Amidst Uncertainty

Discusses the Middle East business's resilience despite uncertain conditions, emphasizing current contracts and core business strength, while acknowledging potential for rapid growth if instability resolves.

North America's Energy Market: Early Signs of Recovery and Optimism for 2027

The dialogue highlights a shift towards more opportunistic contracts and foundational agreements, signaling early recovery signs in North America's energy market. With commodity pricing seen as sticky, there's optimism for growth in 2027, despite current assumptions of market stability. The speaker expresses excitement about recovery potential, emphasizing strategic pricing and absolute return expectations.

International Growth Engines: Deliberate Strategy and Technology Investment Pay Off

The dialogue highlights significant progress in international growth engines, including drilling awards in Brazil and East Med, expansion in unconventional resources with operations in Argentina, and growth in production services with operations now spanning 21 countries. The success is attributed to deliberate strategic choices and technology investments that are yielding positive results.

Middle East Rig Suspension Update: No Major Impact on Operations

Recent disruptions in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, have led to rig suspensions. However, these events have not significantly affected operations, with the rig count remaining steady both offshore and onshore. The market is expected to maintain its activity level as we move towards the end of the year.

Iraq's Transformational IFMS Project and Offshore Drilling Opportunities

Discussion on the significant IFMS project in Iraq, expected to start in H1 next year, focusing on subsurface studies for a full-field development over 5-8 years. Iraq's market challenges are being addressed with wins impacting Halliburton positively. Offshore, logic-composed loop drilling is highlighted as a key differentiator.

Offshore Market Dominance Through Technology and Strategic Acquisitions

A discussion highlights significant offshore market wins, attributing success to automation, strategic acquisitions, and technological focus, with projections of continued robust activity in key regions like Norway.

Pricing Gains, Market Tightness, and Free Cash Flow Outlook

Discussed factors influencing pricing gains, emphasizing market tightness and strategic choices in service allocation. Also, addressed the impact of Sap implementation on working capital and its effect on free cash flow, projecting positive outcomes from current market conditions and operational efficiencies.

2027 Free Cash Flow Projections and Improvements

The dialogue discusses the company's free cash flow for the current year, highlighting a projection of $1.6 billion, with expectations for significant improvement in 2027 due to enhanced profit margins and reduced costs. Challenges in Q3, including lower collections and inventory headwinds, are noted but deemed to be resolving. Future free cash flow margins are anticipated to rise, reflecting positive financial trends.

Mexico's Economic Boost and Global Political Impact on Energy Services

A discussion highlighted Mexico's economic improvement driven by software sales, with expectations for further growth in 2027. The dialogue also addressed the potential influence of U.S. midterm elections on the energy sector's outlook, concluding with confidence in the industry's resilience regardless of political outcomes.

Analysis of International Growth Projections and Contracted Work for 2027

A detailed discussion on the expected 7% to 10% international growth for 2027, highlighting visibility into contracted work, particularly in the Middle East, and North America's anticipated higher growth, contrasting with a projected flat year in North America.

Clarification on North America's Flat Growth Projection Basis for 2026

A query arises regarding whether North America's flat growth into 2027 is based on the 2026 average or the fourth quarter exit rate, seeking clarification on the projection's calculation basis.

CEO Expresses Confidence in Long-Term Demand and Company Performance

The CEO concludes the call by expressing confidence in sustained demand for oilfield services, promising revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong returns for shareholders, setting a positive outlook for future discussions.

要点回答

Q：What were the highlights of Halliburton's third quarter results?

A：The highlights of Halliburton's third quarter results include total company revenue of $5.7 billion, adjusted operating margin of 12.8%, international revenue up 9% year over year to $3.5 billion, and the repurchase of approximately $250 million of common stock.

Q：What is the current global situation in the energy industry following the disruptions?

A：The global energy industry is facing one of the largest disruptions in history with elevated commodity prices, high geopolitical uncertainty, and a continuing oil supply shortfall estimated to be around 3 billion barrels since the conflict began, with about 1 billion barrels drawn from global inventories.

Q：What are the revenue growth and operating income margin targets for Halliburton in 2027?

A：The early view for Halliburton's 2027 outlook is revenue growth in the mid single digits and an operating income margin expansion of about 200 basis points, aiming for margins around 15%.

Q：What is the status of Halliburton's international businesses and their outlook?

A：Halliburton's international businesses, outside of North America and hydraulic fracturing, are at their strongest and are growing, profitable, and winning on technology and collaborative value propositions.

Q：How is the North American hydraulic fracturing market positioned for 2027 and what is Halliburton's view on its recovery?

A：North American hydraulic fracturing is positioned for potential improvement in 2027, but Halliburton's growth and margin improvement strategy does not depend on a recovery in North America; it's considered an upside scenario.

Q：What factors contributed to the strength in international revenue during the third quarter?

A：The strength in international revenue during the third quarter was mainly due to growth in the D and E division with sequential top line outperformance and improved operating income margins, as well as results in the Middle East improving despite inflationary headwinds.

Q：What is Halliburton's value proposition and what are the highlights from the quarter related to this?

A：Halliburton's value proposition is centered around collaboration with customers and engineering solutions that maximize the value of their assets, with a focus on technology and execution. Highlights from the quarter include the successful BP Boomerang Appraisal program in Brazil and the in-case technology in various services.

Q：What are the updates on Halliburton's growth engines?

A：Updates on Halliburton's growth engines include tracking towards a $3 billion annual revenue target by 2028, growth expectations in regions like the North Sea and Argentina, and new projects in artificial lift across various countries. Venezuela is also mentioned as a market where Halliburton is prepared for future growth.

Q：How is the North American market performing and what changes were made to improve performance?

A：The North American market experienced a down sequential revenue of 5% to $2.2 billion in the third quarter, primarily due to the frac market not recovering as anticipated. The company adjusted by moving several crews to new customers and better pricing, which led to more downtime and negatively impacted performance in the region.

Q：How is Halliburton's performance driven technology contributing to revenue growth?

A：The performance-driven technology is contributing to revenue growth by delivering superior results. An example is Hyperstealth, which is engineered to optimize operations with I crews, maximize steer, and speed, leading to a double-digit increase in North America drill bit revenue per rig from the first quarter.

Q：What are the implications of North America's need for more complex wells on Halliburton's business?

A：The increasing complexity of wells in North America necessitates a more nuanced approach to well construction, which benefits Halliburton as it leads to growth in the business. The segment generates solid cash flow and Halliburton has deliberately reduced exposure to commoditized activities, emphasizing the differentiation of technology.

Q：What factors contributed to the financial performance in the third quarter?

A：In the third quarter, revenue was $5.7 billion with adjusted net income per diluted share at 60 cents. CNP division revenue and operating margins were below expectations due to lower-than-expected activity in hydraulic fracturing and a slower startup in Saudi Arabia. However, Dne delivered better-than-expected revenue and operating margins, and total margins were more favorable, resulting in overall margins exceeding expectations.

Q：What is the outlook for 2027 in terms of revenue growth and margin expansion?

A：For 2027, Halliburton expects mid single-digit revenue growth and operating income margins to expand about one ounce point, to about 15%. This outlook assumes flat North America and Middle East activity, steady growth in other regions, and benefits from cost reduction programs and the rundown of the S4 program.

Q：What is the expected revenue and margin performance for the fourth quarter?

A：For the fourth quarter, Halliburton expects total company revenue to remain approximately flat at around $5.7 billion and an operating income margin to improve about 70 basis points. The guidance reflects expectations for the CNP division's revenue and operating margins, as well as the impact of activity levels in North America and the Latin American frac segment.

Q：What is the impact of international unconventionals on the margin improvement forecast?

A：International unconventionals are not specified as a significant driver for margin improvement within the guidance provided. The margin improvement forecast is based on the assumption of flat activity in the Middle East and North America, with additional revenue growth contributing margins in the 20% to 30% range.

Q：What is the anticipated market outlook for the region and what is the focus of the company's investments in unconventional areas?

A：The market outlook for the region is positive with the company seeing a good market before and H2 flat next year. The focus of the company's investments in unconventional areas is not on horsepower but on technology, with deliberate decisions made in those investments contributing to the growth in unconventional operations.

Q：What opportunities and potential growth areas are highlighted in Latin America?

A：Latin America is seen as a potential area for growth with opportunities in Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela being mentioned. In particular, Argentina is experiencing unconventional growth, Venezuela is considered open for business, Mexico is expected to remain fairly flat in H1 but improve in H2, and the company has won significant work in integrated projects through partnerships with Total, En Sanchez, and Petronas. The work is centered around value propositions, customer engagement, and the company's ability to execute.

Q：What factors contribute to the confidence in providing early revenue and margin guidance?

A：Factors contributing to the confidence in providing early revenue and margin guidance include the specific cost structure decisions made, the belief that margins are set to improve, and the fact that the outlook does not depend on North American frac recovery. International depth and technology adoption worldwide, actions taken to improve the cost structure, the implementation of SAP, confidence in the core business and technology, and the robust pipeline of new work are additional contributors.

Q：What indications suggest that pricing and activity in the North American frac market will improve in the future?

A：The indicators suggesting an improvement in the North American frac market include the uptick in rig count, profit additions and increasing activity from Sperry and Bis in drilling and mud weights in Q3, and anecdotal evidence from customers such as extended E-fleet prices and additional fleet orders. There is also a tight market with not much available capacity. Recent customer actions and phone calls indicate that major operators are looking at their fracturing schedules for next year, which could lead to significant changes for Halliburton and substantial benefits.

Q：What are the incremental costs the business is absorbing in the Middle East and could normalization reduce these costs?

A：The incremental costs include logistics and material transportation challenges, which are expected to continue in 2027. If hostilities ceased and normalized, there could be some upside in international margins as these costs would potentially roll off.

Q：What is the expected margin improvement in 2027 and what factors contribute to it?

A：The expected margin improvement in 2027 is 200 basis points. Half of this improvement is attributed to cost reduction, with the other half coming from cost structure normalization. Cost savings from operational costs and costs related to a Q3 exercise are estimated to be around $150 million a year, and an additional $250 to $300 million from cost savings are expected.

Q：How significant is the expected contribution from cost reduction and other cost-saving measures?

A：The cost reduction is expected to contribute significantly to the margin improvement, with savings estimated to be around $150 million a year. The cost savings are expected to be between $150 and $250 million when considering both operational cost adjustments and the transition to a new system.

Q：What is the expected impact of inflationary pressures and pricing on the 2027 margin?

A：Inflationary pressures are already reflected in the Q3 and Q4 numbers, and not much more inflation is expected. There are no meaningful assumptions for pricing increases, and the company is experiencing pricing burn-up. The current view of the 2027 margin is seen as balanced with the current information.

Q：What potential does the company see for growth in Venezuela and what is the current status?

A：The company sees potential for solid growth in Venezuela, with recent MoUs signed and multiple interest shown by major operators. They are currently delivering interventions and expect to deliver 12 projects in the current quarter. The size of the business before leaving Venezuela was greater than half a billion dollars and is expected to be a sizable country for the company in the future.

Q：How does the current production portfolio affect the company's outlook?

A：The current production portfolio is full, which is expected to help with production levels.

Q：What does the company anticipate for activity levels and pricing in the Middle East in 2027?

A：The company's guidance assumes flat activity in the Middle East for 2027. They have a resilient business line and have won important contracts. If conflicts in the Middle East were to resolve immediately, the impact on the business is uncertain due to the current conditions. However, the company views the core business as very strong.

Q：Where does the company believe it is in the cycle of profit-driven activity and pricing in North America?

A：The company believes that there is a steady progression towards profit-driven activity in North America, with operators being more opportunistic and creating value where commodity pricing is sticky. They are having positive conversations about foundational contracts and the expectation is for North American frac activity to remain flat in 2027.

Q：What is the company's strategy and performance in North America?

A：The company runs its P business in North America differently because of different return expectations compared to the market. It focuses on absolute returns and can either raise prices or lose market share. The speaker mentions that the company is early in the process, but anecdotal evidence and dialogue suggest a positive direction for recovery.

Q：What recent significant achievements have been made internationally?

A：The company has made several significant strides internationally, including two notable awards in Brazil and East Med, contributing to the growth trajectory. They've also added operations in Argentina and are expanding in Jafra, with a projected need for over 30,000 stages to be fracked in the kingdom next year. Production services have started in the quarter, and the Stem vessel's operation is set to begin at the end of the current quarter.

Q：What are the key strategic choices and technology investments that have been made?

A：The company has made deliberate strategic choices and invested in technology that is paying off. These decisions have led to advancements in their business and are instrumental in their current growth.

Q：What recent disruptions have occurred in the Middle East and what is the impact on operations?

A：Recent disruptions in the Middle East, although fluid and impacting several countries, have not had a material impact on operations. The speaker states that the rig count remains steady, including offshores like Saudi Arabia. While there's a dip noted, operations have not been affected over the last couple of weeks, and the company closely monitors the situation.

Q：Can you discuss the details and timing of the Iraq project and its margin profile?

A：The Iraq project, described as transformational, will commence in H1 of the next year and will involve subsurface landmark studies among other tasks. It is a five to eight-year project that will build over time. Despite the challenging market conditions in Iraq, the project win is seen as structural and is expected to improve the market for Halliburton. The company is excited about the prospects of this project.

Q：How are the new technologies and acquisitions contributing to market share and margins in the offshore market?

A：The company is optimistic about its position in the offshore market, having won about $4 billion worth of work over the past year. These wins, along with automation and strategic acquisitions, are believed to be accretive to the business. Specific projects mentioned include work with Total Energies and Petronas in the East Med, robust activity in Norway, and a $10 billion investment in exploration and development. These factors are contributing to a strong global position for the company.

Q：What factors are necessary for pricing gains in international markets?

A：The company believes pricing has been improving and sees a strong pipeline for the year. They attribute their success to not being overbuilt in the market, hence experiencing tightness that leads to deliberate choices regarding market entry. With continued tightening in the market, the company expects to see more opportunities for price increases. Additionally, they foresee free cash flow improvements due to managing working capital, particularly in the context of implementing SAP.

Q：What factors contributed to the lower-than-expected free cash flow in Q3?

A：Lower-than-expected free cash flow in Q3 was due to lower collections and headwinds in inventory related to the buildup of inventory for various projects and concerns around Middle East logistics.

Q：What is the projected cash flow from operations for Q4 and how does it contribute to the annual free cash flow?

A：The projected cash flow from operations for Q4 is about $1 billion, after deducting CapEx, net of sales, which amounts to about $300 million. This contributes to an estimated $1.6 billion of free cash flow for the year.

Q：How is the performance in Mexico and what is the outlook for 2027?

A：The performance in Mexico has continued to improve and is expected to be supported by the macro environment in 2027, particularly in the second half of the year. The quarter's improvement was mainly driven by software sales. For 2027, the outlook indicates that if current trends continue, there could be further activity in the Mexican business.

Q：What might be the impact of the U.S. midterm election results on the company's guidance?

A：The company is confident in its business performance under any political outcome and has not factored politics into its outlook. The company's outlook is based on current macroeconomics and the acute need for energy, which suggests a strong future for oilfield services.

Q：How is the guidance for year-over-year international growth of 7% to 10% affected by existing contracts and new wins?

A：The guidance for year-over-year international growth of 7% to 10% is influenced by both existing contracts secured throughout the year and new wins. The exact contribution from each is not detailed in the transcript.

Q：What is the contribution of the Middle East business to the company's growth and how is the visibility in North America?

A：The Middle East business is fully contracted and provides a good line of visibility for the company. In North America, the visibility is very high as the frac spreads are all working and busy. The company believes North America will be flat in 2027 based on current models, but it anticipates North America to perform higher than previously discussed.

Q：Is the flat North America projection for 2027 based on the average of 2026 or the Q4 exit rate?

A：The flat North America projection for 2027 is based on the total year to total year comparison, which includes the average of 2026 and the exit rate for Q4.

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