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盘点“金九”楼市成色,前瞻四季度市场走势中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
China's real estate market diverged from the second quarter to the third quarter, with new home sales in first-tier cities rising year-on-year, while the decline in third-and fourth-tier cities expanded. New and second-hand housing transactions increased year-on-year during the National Day, but there is still a gap compared with 2024. On the policy side, special bonds are used to acquire stock land and commercial housing, and more than 175 billion yuan has been issued since 2026, aiming to stabilize the market. The year-on-year decline in total sales of housing enterprises widened in August and remained flat in September, with head companies achieving sales growth through precision supply. It is expected that the fourth quarter policy will accelerate the landing, housing enterprises need to optimize investment strategy, focus on the core city project layout.
会议速览
Bond Policy Helps Real Estate Market Stability and Urban Renewal
Special bond issuance is used to collect and store the stock of land and commercial housing, the central bank adjusts monetary policy to reduce financing costs, and incremental policies focus on stabilizing the real estate market, including measures such as interest discounts on home purchase loans, aimed at promoting employment growth and urban renewal.
Boosting domestic demand policy analysis: the first set of housing loan discount on the property market impact assessment.
The meeting proposed to study the policy of reserves to boost domestic demand and encourage local governments to try first. The fiscal discount policy focuses on supporting the first set of rigid demand groups, covering new and second-hand housing, especially replacement demand. The discount period is up to five years, with an upper limit of 1 million yuan, which tends to be less than 120 square meters and a total price of less than 500000 yuan. It is expected to have a significant effect on the property market in second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities, with a total annual discount of about 17.5 billion yuan and a total of about 87.5 billion yuan in five years.
The Ministry of Housing and Construction and the Ministry of Natural Resources explain in detail the real estate transformation and urban renewal strategy during the 15 period.
At the September launch meeting, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and the Ministry of Natural Resources elaborated on the strategy for the transformation of the real estate market to the stock era during the 15-year period, including the promotion of three basic systems: the project company system, the host bank system and the project sales system. At the same time, it emphasizes the importance of urban renewal, housing provident fund system reform and good house construction, and proposes to realize the continuous release of land resource value by optimizing land resource allocation and operation mode, and promote the comprehensive upgrading of real estate industry and urban development.
Interpretation of Pre-sale Policy Rules in Four Major Cities: Transitional Arrangement and Differentiated Management
This paper interprets the detailed rules of pre-sale policies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan, focusing on differentiated management such as transitional arrangement, pre-sale conditions, capital supervision and land supply, aiming to provide buffer time for real estate enterprises and promote the stable development of the real estate market.
2026 real estate policy outlook: supply and demand at both ends of the synergy to stabilize the market.
Since 2026, more than 880 policies have been introduced, focusing on the reform of the real estate system, it is expected that the fourth quarter policy rules to accelerate the landing, supply and demand at both ends of the collaborative force to stabilize the market, including provident fund policy optimization, loan limit purchase adjustment, stock housing storage and other measures.
Real Estate Market Performance and Policy Impact Analysis in September
The report analyzed the performance of the real estate market in September and pointed out that the prices of second-hand houses continued to fall, and the prices of new houses showed a structural rise due to policy stimulus. First-tier cities outperformed second-and third-tier cities, and the trend of differentiation intensified. Despite the introduction of the New Deal in 828, the short-term market impact was limited and the overall performance remained stable.
North Guangshen September real estate market performance analysis: new and second-hand housing transactions.
Beijing, Shanghai new housing transactions increased significantly year-on-year, second-hand housing remained stable; Shenzhen new housing transactions fell year-on-year, second-hand housing flat; Guangzhou second-hand housing cumulative year-on-year decline, the overall market performance is stable.
Guangshen Hangzhou into the National Day property market differentiation: high-quality real estate led to transactions, the rental market off-season decline.
During the National Day, Guangshen Hangcheng and other cities new housing transactions differentiation, high-quality real estate supply to promote transactions, but some cities fell back. Compared with last year, the average daily turnover of new houses increased by 34%, and the second-hand houses increased by 43%, but there is still a gap with 2024. The rental market entered the off-season, the overall price fell slightly, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose narrowed.
Analysis of China's Land Market in the First Three Quarters of 2023: Transaction Scale and Transfer Price Trend
In the first three quarters of 2023, China's land market transaction scale and land transfer fees both declined year-on-year, with first-tier cities rising against the trend, while second-and third-tier cities showed a large decline. Core cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and other land transfer fees have accumulated more than 100 billion yuan, and real estate enterprises have focused on key cities. 828 the impact of the New Deal on land transactions, housing enterprises in the policy rules are not clear before the existence of game psychology.
Analysis on the characteristics of premium plots in key second-tier cities after the 828 New Deal
The four characteristics of premium plots in key second-tier cities after the 828 New Deal are discussed: scarcity, moderate scale, low-density attributes and central SOEs-led land acquisition, emphasizing the pursuit of land certainty by housing enterprises to cope with the impact of the new regulations.
Market trend analysis and future outlook: new housing bottoming, second-hand housing shocks and the impact of the New Deal.
Market trend analysis shows that new housing sales bottomed out in the short term, second-hand housing prices continued to fluctuate, and core projects supported improved demand. The 828 New Deal has had a significant impact on real estate investment and is expected to have an impact in 2027. The operating performance of real estate companies shows that the year-on-year decline in sales has expanded since August and was flat in September, and the market has an upward trend.
Analysis of Real Estate Sales Trend in 2026 and Discussion on the Advantages of Head Enterprises
Real estate sales were on a downward trend overall in 2026, but the head companies maintained growth with structural opportunities, low-cost financing and high productivity. The era of high-scale expansion of the industry ended, the number of hundreds of billions of echelon enterprises stable, hot-selling projects to drive enterprise sales, core city projects outstanding performance.
City New Deal and Real Estate Project Hot Factors Analysis
This paper discusses the boosting effect of the new urban policy on market confidence, the promotion of the value of the project by the core location, scarcity and product characteristics, and the enhancement of the brand reputation of the central state-owned enterprises to the confidence of home buyers, and analyzes the impact of the new 828 policy on the land acquisition strategy of real estate enterprises.
Real estate market trends in 2023: decline in total land acquisition and adjustment of investment strategies
From January to September 2023, the total amount of land taken by the real estate market continued to decline, especially in September, which was related to the impact of the new 828 policy, resulting in a longer capital occupation cycle and more cautious investment by real estate enterprises. Central state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land, but the internal differentiation is obvious, private enterprises to take land more cautious, the scale of reduction. The Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao urban agglomerations are still the focus of investment, and local enterprises in Shanghai, Beijing and other places are active. High total price of land to Shanghai-based, joint land phenomenon increased. In the future, we need to pay attention to the impact of the pre-sale system reform on investment strategies and changes in the land market.
要点回答
Q:In stabilizing the real estate market, what are the specific measures of the incremental policy?
A:In the incremental policy of stabilizing the real estate market, it is clearly proposed to study and introduce relevant policies to promote employment and income. Stabilizing the real estate market is listed as a priority for incremental policy research and the introduction of a list, and is expected to continue to implement relevant power measures in the future.
Q:What are the characteristics of the current housing loan discount policy?
A:The characteristics of the housing loan discount policy include that the first set of housing gives priority to supporting the rigid need groups, with a term of up to five years and a maximum discount amount of 1 million yuan. The coverage is not limited to new houses, but also includes second-hand houses and some replacement needs. In addition, the policy is only for newly issued commercial loans, and there are certain restrictions on the area and total price of housing, the overall tendency to support the rigid demand for home buyers.
Q:What are the main differences in the implementation rules of the current reform of the commercial housing sales system?
A:The main differences in the implementation rules of the reform of the commercial housing sales system in various places are reflected in the criteria for capping the pre-sale conditions. Taking Beijing as an example, it is required to complete the top concrete pouring and issue acceptance records by five units; while Wuhan is checked on site by the district housing management department. In contrast, the standards in Shanghai and Guangzhou are relatively loose, and only project caps are required. Different cities have different ways to deal with historical projects, but in general, they have given housing enterprises certain transitional period and grace conditions to ensure that the projects can be delivered on time and implement new pre-sale conditions on the basis of strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds.
Q:What is the impact of the fiscal discount policy on the cities?
A:According to calculations, the total annual discount nationwide is about 17.5 billion yuan, with a total of about 87.5 billion yuan in five years. This policy has a more significant driving effect on second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities, where debt ratios are relatively high. At the same time, the policy can effectively promote the development of the real estate market in these cities.
Q:What are the key messages from the work conference of the Ministry of Housing and Construction and the Ministry of Natural Resources during the 15-year period?
A:At the press conference, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the two major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in real estate and the entry into the stock era, and elaborated the connotation of the new model 1234, that is, based on meeting the needs of the people for housing, improving the two systems of security and market, and implementing projects The three systems of the company system, the host bank system, and the project sales system, and the promotion of the linkage of the four major elements. At the same time, it emphasizes the full promotion of the implementation of the three basic systems of real estate, including clarifying the key work of the revision of the provident fund management regulations, as well as the key points of urban development to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, and the three major changes in land resources.
Q:What are the main differences in land transfer and pre-sale fund supervision in Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and other places?
A:The difference between Shanghai and Beijing is that Shanghai will implement pre-sale fund supervision regulations in accordance with the cloud movement policy before the end of 2027 for land that has been announced. Wuhan, on the other hand, has given special policies to projects that have been included in provincial and municipal intelligent construction pilot projects and whose equipment is buildings before the end of 2026, allowing them to obtain them before the end of 2026. For projects with problems left over from history, after re-establishing the land transfer contract by revitalizing the stock, in principle, the pre-sale management of the newly transferred land shall be carried out, and the timely delivery shall be ensured under the evaluation of the district government. At the same time, strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, allowing pre-sale applications according to the original pre-sale conditions before 2028.
Q:What are the differences between the four places in terms of the upper limit of land fund management collection? What are the similarities and differences in land analysis payment and payment period in different places?
A:Beijing has set a ceiling of 1% for general contracting and fund management, 3% for Shanghai and 5% for Guangzhou and Wuhan. In addition, Guangzhou and Wuhan require that the deposit be deposited in full into the regulatory account and can be used during the regulatory period. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou require payment of not less than 50% within 30 natural days, and the balance can be paid within two years after the contract is signed. Wuhan is relatively loose, requiring more than 50% to be paid within half a year, and the rest can be paid within two years.
Q:What are the differences in supporting work around?
A:Shanghai supports qualified project development enterprises to carry out project financing through bonds, stocks and other means; Guangzhou explores the establishment of mortgages on the right to use state-owned construction land, supports phased development and distribution of equipment, and handles pre-registration of real estate pre-sale. On this basis, Wuhan has also increased its financial support policies for existing projects. For example, the replacement amount of regulatory funds shall not exceed 30% of the amount required for completion and delivery, and shall not be less than 70% after replacement.
Q:What is the outlook for the fourth quarter real estate policy? What is the outlook for the supply-side policy in the fourth quarter?
A:The core of the policy in the fourth quarter is expected to shift to the real estate system reform supporting rules, including land transfer fee analysis and payment, pre-sale funds supervision, project sales promotion and other top-level arrangements to accelerate the transformation into operational rules, strong existing housing sales are expected to expand. In terms of demand policy, the CPF interest rate is expected to be lowered, and localities will optimize CPF policies, such as expanding the use of withdrawals and increasing the amount of loans. There is room for adjustment in the restrictive policies of core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. More cities will combine old-for-new housing subsidies to stimulate housing demand. The supply-side policy in the fourth quarter is expected to focus on revitalizing the stock and the stock of land, commercial housing and the stock of land will continue to promote the collection and storage, special debt issuance to maintain strength, more cities will follow up the project to establish the renewal of inefficient building renovation policy, while strictly controlling the increase in land, accelerate the construction of affordable housing. The supporting policies of urban centers will also continue to be improved, the loan urban land support policy will accelerate the landing, and the original demolition and construction policy of old housing will continue to be promoted in a pilot manner.
Q:What is the difference between the market performance of first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities? How much is the impact of the 828 New Deal on the market performance in September?
A:First-tier cities have better project support because real estate companies can still effectively acquire land. The support of improved demand makes the market performance of these cities relatively resilient, which leads to a more significant year-on-year growth in first-tier cities. According to current data, the direct impact of the 828 New Deal on the September market may not be obvious. In the short term, the impact on consumption is relatively small.
Q:What is the differentiation of real estate market performance in different cities during the National Day?
A:During the National Day, the market performance of cities such as Beijing and Hangzhou grew stronger year-on-year, while the growth in cities such as Shanghai and Wuhan was relatively small, while Shenzhen and Chengdu fell. Market performance differentiation is mainly related to urban inventory situation, inventory structure and high-quality real estate supply.
Q:What was the specific performance of new and second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai in September?
A:New houses in Beijing and Shanghai both increased year-on-year in September. Among them, new houses in Beijing increased by more than 20%, and new houses in Shanghai increased by 17%; in terms of second-hand housing, Shanghai grew year-on-year for seven consecutive months, while the second-hand housing market in Beijing was relatively stable.
Q:What are the performance and reasons of the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen?
A:There is adjustment pressure in the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, mainly due to the long inventory cycle and the lack of high-quality real estate supply. Among them, Shenzhen in April introduced the purchase restriction and provident fund loan optimization policy, in the initial drive market performance, but the lack of sustainability, the overall new housing market is still in the repair channel.
Q:National Day holiday key cities of the real estate market performance?
A:During the National Day holiday, the average daily transaction of new houses in 25 key cities increased by 34% year-on-year, and the average daily transaction of second-hand houses increased by 43% year-on-year. However, compared with the National Day holiday in 2024, there is still a certain gap in market performance, showing that the market is repairing but confidence It has not yet fully recovered.
Q:What are the characteristics of current hot items?
A:Hot-selling projects are usually located in core areas, have improved attributes and high-quality locations, have high product power, and offer attractive price concessions. In the outer suburbs of the project, mainly rely on price advantage to promote sales, but the overall performance of the general.
Q:How is the rental market?
A:September entered the off-season of the rental market, the overall rental price showed a slight decline, but the rent in some cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen is still rising, but the increase has narrowed. Overall, the leasing market is in a strategic adjustment in the short term.
Q:How is the performance of the land market in the first three quarters and the differentiation of cities in each line?
A:In the first three quarters, the scale of land transfer transactions and land transfer fees decreased year-on-year, while the transaction area and transfer fees in first-tier cities increased, while those in second-and third-tier cities decreased and decreased significantly. From the perspective of land market pressure, the average premium rate of land transfer in first tier cities is much higher than that in second tier and third tier cities, which shows that the differentiation of land market is more obvious.
Q:What is the proportion of top 20 cities in the land transfer market?
A:From January to September, the proportion of land transfer in top 20 cities increased by about 8 percentage points compared with the whole of last year. Core cities still focus on key cities in land transfer and land acquisition by real estate enterprises.
Q:Judging from the land transfer fee transaction in September, which cities rank higher?
A:According to data, Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou ranked first in terms of land transfer fees in the first three quarters. Among them, Shanghai's turnover has exceeded 126.2 billion, Beijing's is about more than 80 billion, and Hangzhou's is 67 billion. Next are Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu.
Q:After the 828 of the New Deal, is there a game psychology when housing enterprises take land?
A:After the introduction of the 828 New Deal, before the detailed rules of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, etc. are not clear, real estate companies may have a certain game psychology when acquiring land, because the New Deal's regulations on land transaction time and announcement time are not clear enough.
Q:After the New Deal in 828, which plots have been sold at a premium?
A:From the 828 of the New Deal to the end of September, some premium plots were mainly concentrated in first-and second-tier cities, and most of the transfer fees were above 0.1 billion. These plots are characterized by scarcity, moderate overall scale, low floor area ratio and investment led by central SOEs, with some private enterprises participating but requiring deep regional plowing.
Q:What is the judgment of the future trend of the real estate market?
A:Combined with the market performance in September, the second-hand housing market still has a certain degree of sustainability. Although the new housing market has declined, the decline is controllable, and the market is showing a trend of differentiation. During the National Day market performance in line with expectations, it is expected that the short-term new housing is still in the bottoming stage, the core area of high-quality projects are expected to drive transactions, improved demand is an important support for the short-term market.
Q:What is the impact on the sales side and the land side after the full moon of the New Deal in 828?
A:The impact of the 828 New Deal on the sales side and the land side has gradually emerged. At present, some cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan have issued supporting rules, which have a greater impact on the investment decisions of real estate companies. In the short term, the transmission effect of the 828 New Deal will become an important follow-up line, and in the long run, the impact of the New Deal will gradually appear in 2027, and it may be more obvious in the second quarter of this year.
Q:In the current market environment with strong demand for improvement, which enterprises' projects are more likely to seize structural opportunities?
A:We believe that companies with strong project premiums and outstanding product strength are more likely to seize such opportunities.
Q:In the past few years, what are the changing trends of the hundreds of billions and tens of billions of echelons in the sales camp of real estate companies?
A:From 2023 to 2026, the number of real estate enterprises in both the 100 billion echelon and the 10 billion echelon has shown a continuous contraction trend, and the era of high-scale expansion of the whole industry has come to an end.
Q:What is the stability of the market positioning of the head housing enterprises?
A:Although the total number of real estate companies has decreased, the number of head companies has not changed significantly, the market positioning of head companies is more stable, and they have an advantage in product investment and financing capabilities.
Q:What are the main success factors for hot projects?
A:The main factors for the success of hot-selling projects include policy impact, location advantages, surrounding population aggregation support, scarcity, and product features. In addition, the brand reputation and delivery certainty of central SOEs are also important factors.
Q:What kind of impact does the New Deal have on the land acquisition strategy of enterprises in 828?
A:The New 828 Policy has raised the preset conditions for land acquisition and delayed the payment node, resulting in a rise in the capital threshold for land acquisition and development by real estate enterprises, thus making real estate enterprises more cautious about land acquisition in the short term, which is also the main reason for the expansion of the amount of land acquisition.
Q:From January to September, how did the total amount of land taken by 100 enterprises change? How did the top ten enterprises perform?
A:The total amount of land taken by 100 enterprises as a whole showed a downward trend, and the decline was larger than that from January to August, mainly due to the high base last year and the impact of the new policy in 828. The top ten enterprises in the amount of land to the central state-owned enterprises, some of which increased significantly year-on-year, investment is strong, the head of housing enterprises to take land sales than the average slightly increased, to maintain a high intensity of land.
Q:What is the performance of private enterprises in taking places? From a regional perspective, which urban agglomerations or cities are worth paying attention?
A:The number of large-scale enterprises in private enterprises is smaller, compared with the previous month has decreased, the overall scale of land acquisition is also significantly lower than in 19 years, land acquisition is more cautious. The Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao urban agglomerations have always been key areas for real estate investment, while local real estate companies in Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and other cities play an important role in the land market. At the same time, the phenomenon of local urban investment in the central and western regions is more significant.
Q:What is the land acquisition situation of high total price land?
A:High total price plots are mainly concentrated in first-tier cities, such as Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, and some plots have joint land acquisition. The change of pre-sale system has had an impact on the enterprise's land acquisition strategy, and the subsequent need to continuously observe the impact of its investment strategy and land auction policy changes on the sales, land acquisition and cash flow of real estate enterprises.
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