好市多公司 (COST.US) 2026财年第四季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

Costco reported strong Q4 FY26 financials with net sales and comparable sales growth, driven by e-commerce, pharmacy, and gas sales. Despite challenges from gas inflation and LIFO impacts, core margins improved due to supply chain efficiencies and higher sales in key categories. Fresh products, non-foods, and sundries showed year-over-year growth. The company plans increased capital expenditures to support warehouse and e-commerce growth, emphasizing digital engagement and AI. Membership growth was highlighted, along with successful merchandising initiatives and stable inflation management through cost efficiencies and pricing strategies. Expansion into new markets and digital initiatives are central to Costco's growth strategy.

会议速览

Costco's FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call: CFO Addresses Forward-Looking Statements and Comparable Sales

The CFO of a major retail corporation welcomes participants to the fourth quarter earnings call, emphasizing the inclusion of forward-looking statements and their associated risks. Comparable sales metrics, excluding gasoline price and foreign exchange impacts, are noted as supplementary to GAAP net sales. The CEO will follow with opening remarks before diving into financial results.

Fiscal Year 2026 Highlights: Warehouse Expansion, Digital Growth, and Strong Financial Performance

Discussed warehouse expansion, digital sales growth, and strong financial results for fiscal year 2026, highlighting new market opportunities, membership growth, and operational efficiencies.

Q4 Financial Highlights: Record Net Income, Sales Growth, and Membership Expansion

The company reported a record net income of $2.998 billion in Q4, with net sales increasing by 11.2% to $93.87 billion. Membership growth was robust, with 84.1 million total paid members and 42.3 million executive members, reflecting a 3.8% and 9.4% year-over-year increase, respectively. Gross margin rates improved, excluding gas inflation, driven by supply chain efficiencies and higher labor productivity in key departments. The company also noted non-recurring benefits from Iepa tariff refunds and a focus on reinvesting in member value.

Analysis of Financial Impacts: LIFO Charges, SGNA Rates, and Capital Expenditure Trends

Discussed impacts of LIFO charges on rates, attributed to higher memory costs and inflation from Middle East conflict. Reported SGNA rate improvements and interest income increases. Highlighted planned capital expenditure growth for warehouse expansion and supply chain efficiency.

Qatar's Non-Foods Sales Growth and Global Trends in Health and Beauty

Qatar's non-foods sales grew with gold, jewelry, and health & beauty leading. K-beauty products surged. Bakery and meat sales rose, with in-house pastries and premium meats driving growth. Food court churros return. Packaged foods, sundries, and frozen foods grew, focusing on healthier options. Signature items and price reductions boosted value. Machinery businesses, gas, pharmacy, and travel thrived. Inflation remained low, with shipping disruptions noted. Digital sales, personalization, and AI search grew, enhancing member experience and sales.

Evaluating Tariff Reinvestment Impact on Sales Growth and Value Proposition

Discussed the evaluation of investments made with tariff refunds, emphasizing member resilience and spending patterns, with a focus on non-food sales and travel growth indicating successful value proposition reinforcement.

Analyzing Membership Growth, Spend Trends, and Assortment Impact on Business

The dialogue discusses membership growth, highlighting a younger demographic and increased executive penetration as positive indicators for future spending. It also touches on the impact of past tariff-related assortment changes and expresses optimism about current product quality and holiday sales potential.

Strategies for Reversing Membership Growth Slowdown and Managing Vendor Price Increases

The dialogue discusses strategies to reverse the declining trend in membership growth, emphasizing the balance between membership base expansion and increased spend per member. It also addresses visibility on upcoming vendor price hikes, highlighting the role of Kirkland's signature brands in mitigating cost increases.

Costco's Strategic Approach to AI Integration and Member Value Enhancement

The dialogue highlights Costco's perspective on leveraging AI for enhanced member engagement and sales growth, emphasizing the company's commitment to quality and value. It discusses the significant traffic growth from AI-driven searches and the positive impact on membership activity, underscoring the potential for continued expansion in the digital space.

Balancing Digital Growth and Brick-and-Mortar Value in Retail Strategy

Discusses adapting to younger, digitally savvy members by enhancing online experiences while maintaining the unique value of brick-and-mortar warehouses to foster loyalty and shopping frequency.

International Expansion's Impact on Membership Growth and Engagement

Discusses the differing dynamics of membership growth and engagement in Asia compared to the US, highlighting the need for increased visit frequency and spending in Asian markets to match US performance. Emphasizes quality membership growth and engagement as key factors for long-term value and sales performance, while acknowledging the potential impact of new warehouse openings on membership and sales metrics.

Analyzing Food vs. Non-Food Inflation Trends and Impact of Turo's Return on Ticket Prices

Discussion focuses on food inflation parallels with previous quarters at roughly 1%, non-food inflation being higher yet decelerating, and evaluating how Turo's reintroduction might influence average ticket prices.

Analyzing Inflation Trends: Low Single Digits, Fluctuations in Non-Food and Consumer Electronics

Inflation is running at a low single-digit rate, with fluctuations noted in non-food items and consumer electronics. Gas prices and petroleum-based items contributed to increased inflation, though dairy and other commodities experienced deflation, offsetting overall impact. A large LIFO charge in the fourth quarter reflects end-of-year inflation spikes in specific categories.

Consumer Resilience and Growth Across Income Cohorts Highlighted

The dialogue underscores the resilience of consumers across various income levels, emphasizing their willingness to spend on both value-oriented and premium items. It highlights significant growth in categories like health and beauty, small appliances, and indulgent bakery items. Additionally, the conversation touches on the maturity curve of younger customers and the incremental lift expected from third-party fulfillment agreements, noting the positive impact on member engagement and loyalty.

Grocery Inflation and Industry Rationality Amid Uncertainty

A discussion on predicting grocery inflation amidst uncertain factors like oil price volatility and tariffs, emphasizing the industry's rational approach to cost pressures and the pursuit of efficiency to maintain stable pricing.

Costco's Third-Party Delivery Expansion: An Incremental Solution Enhancing Member Engagement

The dialogue explores Costco's third-party delivery expansion, highlighting improvements in delivery times and the incremental nature of these services in enhancing member engagement, particularly in prescription and grocery deliveries, without replacing the regular in-store visits.

SG&A Cost Pressures & GLP-1 Sales Impact Amidst Pricing Changes

Discussion revolves around SG&A cost pressures, leveraging SG&A with script growth, and managing GLP-1 sales amidst pricing changes, emphasizing value delivery and market opportunities.

要点回答

Q：What are the highlights of Costco's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026?

A：In the fourth quarter, Costco opened new warehouses, including an international location in Taiwan and new US buildings in various states, bringing the total warehouse count to 939 worldwide. For the fiscal year, Costco opened 28 new warehouses, including three relocations for a total of 25 net new buildings. The company plans to open additional warehouses in the future in new and mature US markets, as well as international markets.

Q：What was the performance of Costco's various business channels in fiscal year 2026?

A：During fiscal year 2026, all operating channels performed exceptionally well for Costco, including warehouses, ancillary businesses, and digital platforms. The company achieved top-line sales growth of over 10%, deepened member loyalty, and captured a larger share of wallet. This success was driven by an agile, item-driven model where buyers quickly adjusted the assortment to offer high-quality, relevant products at low prices. The strong performance was seen across various departments and was supported by the ancillary businesses, with particularly robust growth in the gas, pharmacy, and travel sectors.

Q：How did Costco's ancillary businesses perform?

A：The ancillary businesses at Costco performed very well across the board, with the gas, pharmacy, and travel sectors leading the way. The pharmacy sales grew nearly 20% as the company continued to expand its digital capabilities. The travel business added new packages and destinations, with vacation packages, cruises, and car rentals all experiencing double-digit growth.

Q：What were the notable achievements of Costco's gas business in fiscal year 2026?

A：The gas business at Costco had a record year, with the penetration of US member households using Costco gas reaching an all-time high. The company estimates that it saved members over $3.2 billion versus the average price at the pump. At the highest locations, the company increased throughput and improved the member experience, while also expanding digital capabilities to increase value and convenience.

Q：What partnerships have been announced to enhance Costco's digital capabilities?

A：To enhance its digital capabilities, Costco announced partnerships with Uber East, which expanded from 17 states to the entire US, and with DoorDash, which was introduced to include the US. These partnerships complement the successful long-term partnership with Instacart in the US and Canada. The new marketplaces are expected to bring increased convenience and significantly younger engagement with the members, resulting in mostly incremental sales with limited impact on the core warehouse grocery business.

Q：What are the trends in member demographics and membership renewal rates at Costco?

A：The membership at Costco continues to be the most important item sold, and the additional benefits for executive members have been well received. Executive member penetration reached an all-time high, and renewal rates showed improvements. Growth in new member sign-ups through digital channels and younger members continued. The base under 40 has grown nearly 60% since COVID-19, with members under 40 now accounting for over a quarter of the total membership base. While these younger members may spend less initially, they tend to become higher spending members over time.

Q：What actions did Costco take with the initial tariff refunds received in the fourth quarter?

A：As part of the initial tariff refunds received in the fourth quarter, Costco reinvested some of the dollars to give value back to members through price reductions on various items, including everyday items, produce, meat, beverages, and some non-food items. The company plans to continue reinvesting the majority of the refund dollars received in increased member values in future periods.

Q：What was the financial performance of Costco in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026?

A：In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, Costco reported net income of $2.998 billion or $6.75 per diluted share, which included a non-recurring benefit from Iepa tariff refunds. Excluding the non-recurring benefits, net income and EPS were up 12.3% and 12.4% from the year before. Net sales increased by 11.2% to $93.87 billion, with comparable sales up significantly, and membership fee income grew by 7.3%, with 6.8% growth when adjusting for foreign exchange. The company's renewal rates also showed an improvement.

Q：What is the impact of gas inflation on gross margin?

A：The reported gross margin rate was lower by 0.13% compared to the prior year, but excluding gas inflation, the gross margin rate was higher by 25 basis points. Core on core was lower by 41 basis points, yet excluding gas inflation, core on core margins were higher by 10 basis points. The increase in core on core margins was broad-based across all categories, driven by supply chain efficiencies and shifts in sales mix towards higher-margin departments.

Q：How did LIFO and other nonrecurring items affect gross margin?

A：LIFO negatively impacted the gross margin rate by 11 basis points and 12 basis points without considering gas inflation. There was a $152 million LIFO charge in the quarter compared to $43 million in the prior year, with higher memory costs in consumer electronics and inflation on items related to the Middle East conflict being the main drivers. Tariff refunds and their partial reinvestment were also nonrecurring and impacted gross margin negatively by 1 basis point both with and without gas inflation.

Q：What is the change in the reported and core SG&A rates?

A：The reported SG&A rate was lower by 27 basis points, coming in at 8.94% compared to 9.21% last year. Excluding gas inflation, the rate was lower by 20 basis points. The operations component of SG&A was lower or better by 22 basis points and flat excluding gas inflation. Interest expense decreased to $44 million from $45 million last year, interest income increased to $209 million from $169 million, and income taxes saw a tax rate of 25.2% compared to 25.6% in the prior year.

Q：What is the planned capital expenditure for fiscal year 25?

A：For fiscal year 25, the company plans approximately $7.5 billion in capital expenditures, an increase from the previous year, mainly due to growth in the pipeline of new warehouses and continued investment in the supply chain to support future warehouse and e-commerce sales growth.

Q：What were the notable merchandising highlights in the quarter?

A：Notable merchandising highlights included strong comparable sales growth across several departments. In Qatar, non-foods comp sales were mid to high single digits with top-performing departments like gold and jewelry, home furnishings, housewares, small electrics, and health and beauty. Fresh comparable sales were up mid single digits, with growth in bakery and meat, and food and sundries comp sales were low to mid single digits, driven by increased demand for healthier packaged foods.

Q：How did the recent changes in fuel prices affect the traffic team's operations?

A：Due to recent typhoons in Asia and Panama Canal delays, the traffic team is experiencing minor shipping disruptions. However, new product introductions are flowing relatively smoothly, and the merchants are optimistic about inventory levels despite watching closely for higher freight costs resulting from increased fuel prices.

Q：What is the impact of AI on member search behavior and sales?

A：AI is growing in its influence on member search behavior, with triple-digit growth in traffic to sites from AI searches and a high conversion rate. AI searches are leading to sales in appliances and consumer electronics and indicating a positive sentiment towards the membership value.

Q：What is the return on investment in prices for Costco?

A：The return on the investment in prices for reinforcing Costco's value proposition is being evaluated, but there has not been a significant change in the trajectory of the monthly sales, indicating that the return might be more aligned with historic levels of same-store sales growth rather than a substantial increase.

Q：What was the major impact of gas prices on the company's top-line sales, and how did non-food sales perform?

A：Gas prices had a significant impact on the company's top-line sales, with members resonating with the value offered through the gas stations as evidenced by higher prices at the pump. However, when examining sales excluding gas, they remained in a reversed trend, within a sort of 6 or 7% range for a year. The non-food sales category was the highest performer overall, signifying that members responded positively to the quality and value items offered.

Q：How are the investments in pricing and tariffs benefiting the members?

A：The investments in pricing and tariffs are viewed as a means of giving value back to members for the tariff refunds received. The goal was to spread these benefits to items that would have the most impact for members, resulting in investments in both food and non-food areas to offset the effects of tariffs and provide value to members.

Q：What does the membership growth data indicate about the company's performance?

A：The membership growth data indicates solid underlying performance and a healthy level of new member sign-ups, as well as a shift towards a younger demographic with one quarter of members being under 40. It also shows a record level of executive membership penetration in new sign-ups and within the base, and an increase in the renewal rate. These factors are strong indicators of loyalty and a likelihood of continued top line sales growth.

Q：What was the impact of tariffs on the store's inventory and how does the company feel about the assortment as the holiday season approaches?

A：Tariffs initially caused the removal of certain items from the store and the addition of other SKUs, which had a significant impact in the first and second quarters. However, by the third quarter, things returned to a more normal state, and the company feels positive about the holiday season, the buying lineup, and the strong non-food sales seen in the recent quarter. The company is optimistic about the quality of goods available and the members' response.

Q：What is the outlook for reversing the declining trend in membership growth?

A：The outlook for reversing the declining trend in membership growth is positive, with continued growth in new member sign-ups and normalization of the renewal rate. The company expects the growth rate to be more typical based on current membership trends and the normalization process. Sustained top-line sales growth is anticipated through a balance of continued membership base growth and increasing spend per member.

Q：How is the company managing vendor price increases and the potential for substitutability?

A：The company is managing vendor price increases by collaborating with vendors and dealing with commodity increases to keep prices down. They have visibility on price increases ranging from 30 days to 90 days and have the advantage of substitutability. The introduction of Kirkland Signature brand items is a strategy to fight back on lower pricing. The company continues to focus on reducing prices and ensuring that they offer the best value to members.

Q：What role does AI play in Costco's commerce strategy and member experience?

A：Artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a tool that members use to search for items and compare products and services. Costco leverages its close pricing relationship with members and its curated assortment of high-quality items to ensure that the value proposition is compelling. With the growth in search activity from different large language models and AI tools, Costco is seeing encouraging results, with significant triple-digit growth in sales originating from these AI-driven search activities.

Q：What trends are emerging regarding membership activity and engagement at Costco?

A：The company is seeing strong flow-through of membership activity and engagement, indicating that the search behavior of members highlights the value of a Costco membership.

Q：What is the impact of the robust digital growth and the addition of younger, more digitally savvy members on Costco's approach to the club's future orientation?

A：The robust digital growth and the addition of younger, more digitally savvy members are prompting Costco to consider different ways to enter into the Costco experience, such as through digital channels. The warehouse continues to be seen as crucial for creating a differentiated experience and building loyalty, but the way the warehouse is expected to look in the coming years may change.

Q：Can you provide metrics on the health of new member households in international countries such as Asia, and compare them to the U.S.?

A：While specific metrics were not provided, the company expects continued growth in new warehouses and plans to increase capital investment for the next few years. The dynamics in Asia, such as China, Japan, and Korea, may see a higher number of members per warehouse but with less frequent visits. The company aims to increase visit frequency and engagement in these markets to align more with the U.S. model where fewer members visit more frequently but spend significantly more per member.

Q：What is the effect of food and non-food inflation on Costco's average ticket, and how much is expected to be added by bringing the Tuco back?

A：Inflation is currently running in the low single digits and is relatively stable compared to prior quarters. Non-food inflation was impacted by increases in consumer electronics, oil-related items, and gas prices. Inflation in the range of 1% to 1.5% is expected to be reflected in the average ticket when the Tuco is reintroduced.

Q：What trends are members showing in their spending behavior at Costco?

A：Members at Costco are showing a willingness to spend on discretionary items with exciting new offerings that provide great value. They are also being thoughtful with their dollars, seeking value in everyday items, and spending on items like tires, housewares, and furniture as well as on health and beauty products, including fragrance, skin and hair care. Additionally, there's strong growth in items such as massage chairs and over a 50% increase in products like this. Strength is also seen in bakery and premium items like USDA prime and Wagyu beef.

Q：What potential impact could new third-party fulfillment agreements have on member spending?

A：New third-party fulfillment agreements could bring more choice to members, potentially increasing incremental spend as they offer additional shopping options. The impact is generally considered incremental and positive, with no indication of it reducing overall loyalty to Costco. While there may be some members who engage with these platforms more frequently, it is not seen as pulling away from core loyalty.

Q：What is the outlook for grocery inflation and how might it affect member spending?

A：The outlook for grocery inflation is uncertain due to various factors such as Middle East tensions, potential impacts on oil prices and tariffs. There is no clear prediction for an inflection in grocery inflation numbers or whether the grocery industry will demonstrate typical rational behavior in response to cost pressures. The company has seen relatively stable prices and aims to continue finding cost savings and efficiencies to offset commodity price inflation and maintain value for members.

Q：How does Costco plan to manage delivery services and potential price changes?

A：Costco is focused on leveraging existing digital engagement and delivery services to improve experiences for members. Although there may be some incremental usage from members, regular visits to Costco stores are still common. As for price changes, Costco is considering the impact of recent price adjustments and the value provided by their programs. They intend to offset the impact of GLP one and other challenges while continuing to drive value for members and increase script count and top line sales.

Q：Are there specific cost areas withinSGNA where pressure is increasing compared to the last few quarters?

A：WithinSGNA, there is some leverage but no specific cost areas are mentioned where pressure is significantly increasing compared to the last few quarters. The company has seen some growth in general liability and healthcare costs, but efforts have been made to maintainSGNA efficiency. While the agreement costs are higher in the first year of a three-year deal and the company is now in year 2, no major headwinds are expected to significantly impact leverage in the model if current comping rates are maintained.

Q：Is there an impact from recent price changes onGLP one and how is the company responding?

A：Recent price changes have impactedGLP one, but the company has managed these by offsetting the impacts and driving more value for members. Investments in programs continue to drive increased script count and top line sales despite underlying headwinds. Costco is confident in its ability to manage these challenges and maintain momentum in the business.

Q：What opportunities does lower pricing create for Costco, and how is the company responding?

A：Lower pricing allows Costco to take advantage of opportunities to enhance member satisfaction. The company has made significant investments in the pharmacy and core business with lower drug prices and unit growth. These strategies enable Costco to deliver value to members, resulting in continued success in the pharmacy and core business.

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