Duolingo (DUOL.US) 2026年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Duolingo leverages open-source AI to cut costs, boost user engagement, and expand globally, aiming for 100 million DAUs by 2028, with a focus on sustainable growth and mission-driven education.
会议速览
The webcast introduces Duolingo's second quarter earnings, highlighting forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, and discusses both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures with reconciliations available in earnings materials.
Discussed Q2's strong performance with 23% YoY DAU growth, driven by continuous product improvements and the Green Machine strategy. Highlighted record K score and successful one-time Street Revival campaign, encouraging user retention and re-engagement.
Duolingo reports Q2 financial results with strong performance, adjusting its Target Adjusted EBITDA outlook upwards. The company maintains its full year bookings and revenue growth targets, aiming for 11% bookings and 16% revenue growth. Duolingo expects to end the year with a gross margin of 70%, up from 69%, and anticipates generating over $375 million in free cash flow. For Q3, the company forecasts bookings growth of 9% and revenue growth of 11%. Duolingo remains focused on reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028, believing this will create significant value for shareholders.
Instructions on using the raise hand button for questions, managing the queue, promoting participants, and rules for follow-up questions are provided for a virtual session involving analysts and panelists.
Discusses reasons behind not raising full-year bookings despite expecting over 20% year-over-year growth, attributing it to delayed monetization of users and ongoing experiments. Explains how extending pre-trials from one to two months enhances engagement and monetization.
A company's monetization strategy focuses on extending free trials to a month, significantly increasing user conversion rates and enhancing daily active users by removing ads and improving user experience.
The discussion highlights Duolingo's marketing evolution, emphasizing organic growth and the strategic use of influencers, particularly in countries like China, Indonesia, and India, to attract new users and boost top-of-funnel trends.
US market growth has significantly increased, with broad-based expansion across all regions. Asia remains the fastest-growing region, but the US has seen a notable rise. Top-of-funnel performance has improved, marking a significant achievement for the team, with growth rates increasing in nearly every region.
By significantly reducing the cost of video calls through open-source models, the platform is expanding video call access to super subscribers and planning to include existing users, enhancing language learning through improved conversational practice.
Discusses potential changes to video call subscription models, considering limited access for some tiers and possibly discontinuing Max. Emphasizes maintaining revenue while expanding user access, with a decision expected in the next few quarters. Considers introducing a mid-tier pricing option between Super and free models.
Discussion revolves around Super Light, a cheaper alternative to Super, with plans to promote it more actively. The aim is to target those unlikely to buy Super, focusing on geographic pricing and limited energy use. Future marketing strategies will experiment with Super Light over the next few months.
The dialogue discusses strategies enhancing user retention, engagement, and monetization through product improvements, video call features, and speaking exercises, focusing on intermediate and advanced learners, leading to better learning outcomes and word-of-mouth promotion.
Discussed the company's focus on increasing daily active users and experimenting with new features, aiming to broaden access and grow the user base. Also touched on potential future developments for premium services like Max, emphasizing cost considerations in feature development.
Discussed adapting to decreasing attention spans by experimenting with shorter session lengths while ensuring repeat engagement. Also, outlined strategies for math and music apps, focusing on K-12 education for math and planning further developments for music, emphasizing their growth potential despite current smaller user bases.
An individual expresses their love for math and appreciation, followed by a moderator inviting the next participant, Mark, to unmute and ask a question, smoothly transitioning the dialogue to an interactive Q&A segment.
Discusses expanding video call functionality to premium subscribers due to cost and incentive concerns, and outlines advancements in advertising revenue and spend strategies, including a shift towards performance marketing.
The dialogue touches upon a perceived shift in focus during a call, suggesting a move towards concentrating on specific areas. The speaker acknowledges the transition, hinting at the importance of adapting priorities within the conversation.
The dialogue explores the strategic approach to balancing active user base expansion with monetization, emphasizing the importance of not compromising daily active users (DAUs) for revenue. The discussion highlights a shift towards identifying monetization methods that align with growth objectives, such as longer free trials and improved ad quality, while maintaining a focus on reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028. The key takeaway is the commitment to gradual, growth-friendly monetization strategies.
Discusses how open source models have significantly reduced AI compute costs, affecting margin structures and potentially accelerating product velocity by providing high-quality, cost-effective solutions for various applications.
The dialogue highlights the strategic shift towards open source AI models to reduce costs and enhance AI features for more users. The discussion emphasizes the trade-offs between quality and cost, aiming for a 10% to 12% growth in bookings and 15% to 18% revenue growth, with a focus on achieving a 25% adjusted EBIT margin through AI cost savings.
A call to action prompts an individual from a legal line to unmute and pose a question, highlighting procedural engagement in virtual communication settings.
The dialogue emphasizes maintaining an affordable and widely accessible education mission while managing business growth and ensuring a positive user experience. It discusses the company's focus on expanding reach, valuing user engagement over mere social media scrolling, and aligning mission success with business scalability through increased user monetization.
Discusses China's importance as a growing market for AI, compliance with local regulations mandating the use of domestic models, and the company's proactive approach to managing regulatory risks through government relations, aiming for sustained market expansion and monetization.
A rough estimate of AI expenses as a percentage of total costs, focusing on contributions from Anthropic, OpenAI, and open-weight models, with a directional sense of significance.
A detailed discussion on the significant costs associated with AI and hosting in the cost of goods sold, reaching tens of millions, alongside internal AI expenses around $10 million. Highlights the ongoing debate on AI sovereignty, contrasting open and closed models, reflecting broader industry concerns.
The dialogue highlights the company's preference for open weight models due to their cost-effectiveness, despite acknowledging the necessity of proprietary models for certain tasks. The speaker envisions a future portfolio heavily weighted towards open weight models, balancing the use of proprietary models for specialized needs.
Expresses thanks to all attendees, concludes the QA session, and looks forward to future engagements.
要点回答
Q:What were the key financial and user growth highlights for Duolingo's second quarter?
A:The key highlights for Duolingo's second quarter include a 23% year-over-year growth in Daily Active Users (DAU), which accelerated from Q1 and slightly exceeded expectations. The quarter saw a significant portion of growth attributed to the 'Green Machine', a process of testing and implementing product changes that leads to user retention reaching an all-time high. Additionally, a one-time campaign called 'Street Revival' brought back 15 million learners to the platform.
Q:What is the purpose of the 'Green Machine' and how does it affect user retention?
A:The 'Green Machine' is a process at Duolingo where the company tests hundreds of product changes, measures their impact, and focuses on those that work. This ongoing effort contributes to user retention reaching an all-time high by compounding the effects of small changes over time.
Q:What was the impact of the 'Street Revival' campaign on user engagement and monetization?
A:The 'Street Revival' campaign allowed learners who lost their longest streak to earn it back by completing three lessons. It resulted in more than 15 million learner revivals, which helped to bring those users back to the platform and reinforce the idea that the product is continually improving.
Q:How is Duolingo managing investments and performance in the current fiscal year?
A:Duolingo is managing its business by investing deliberately in long-term growth opportunities while maintaining discipline and executing towards full-year bookings and revenue targets of 10% to 12% growth in bookings and 15% to 18% revenue growth. The company has also increased its target Adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% from the previously outlined 25% and expects a year-end Adjusted EBITDA margin closer to 25.5%.
Q:What are the updated financial expectations for the remainder of 2026?
A:For the remainder of 2026, Duolingo's updated financial expectations include a bookings growth rate of approximately 11% and revenue growth of roughly 16% at constant foreign exchange rates. The company expects to end the year with an Adjusted EBITDA margin around 25.5%, and it anticipates generating over $375 million of free cash flow for the year.
Q:How is the DAU growth for Q3 expected to perform?
A:For Q3, Duolingo expects bookings of approximately $307 million, a growth of 9%, revenue of $302 million, representing growth of 11%, and an Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $76 million with a margin of 25.2%.
Q:What is the impact of extended free trials on engagement and monetization?
A:The extension of free trials from one month to two months is intended to improve engagement and monetization. While the mechanics of this impact are not detailed, the strategy is part of the monetization team's effort to find ways to increase monetization without compromising user growth, as historically some monetization strategies have created friction that opposes user growth.
Q:What is the effect of shifting to a one month free trial on user acquisition and conversion?
A:Shifting to a one month free trial has led to an increase in the number of people taking the trial as it is seen as a better deal. This has, in turn, resulted in a larger number of people converting to paying users. Additionally, the experience improves for those on the free trial as certain features like energy and ads are turned off, which has helped increase daily active users.
Q:How does the marketing team plan to utilize influencers and what impact is it having?
A:The marketing team is expanding its use of influencers, who have proven effective in countries like China, Indonesia, and India, where two thirds of social media impressions come from these influencers. The team is finding it cost-effective to work with influencers who have different audiences, thereby bringing in a lot of new users. This strategy is yielding positive results, and the team is becoming more sophisticated in performance marketing while still focusing on organic growth.
Q:What changes have been made to the top of the funnel and how is it performing?
A:The marketing team has made improvements in the top of the funnel, which has resulted in increased growth rates in most regions, with the US seeing particular growth. DAU growth is broad-based across all regions, and the focus on improving the top of the funnel has been a key area of effort for the team, which has seen positive developments in almost every region.
Q:How has the introduction and cost of video calls evolved?
A:Initially, video calls were costly to use, which led to them being placed behind the paid Max plan. However, through hard work, the cost has been reduced to under a cent per video call, allowing for broader access. Video calls are now available to new super subscribers, and they will also be given to existing users in the coming months. The conversation about the future of the Max plan suggests that it may be scaled back or possibly sunsetted in favor of more inclusive video call features for all subscribers.
Q:What is the effect of increased retention on daily active users?
A:The retention improvements have led to significant changes in daily active users over time due to the compounding effect. Every version of the app has shown approximately a 3-5% change in retention, resulting in a stickier product and better overall growth.
Q:How is the video call feature impacting engagement and learning within the app?
A:The video call feature has greatly improved engagement, as evidenced by an increase in the number of words spoken by daily active users (DAUs) who have access to this feature. The data shows a consistent improvement each month, indicating better engagement and learning outcomes. This feature also provides more speaking exercises and allows users to answer them via voice instead of tapping on the phone, which is particularly beneficial for advanced and intermediate learners.
Q:What is the company's focus for the remainder of the year in terms of experimentation and feature development?
A:The company plans to continue a high rate of experimentation, with an increasing number of experiments being conducted per week that grows faster than headcount. Experiments will cover teaching improvements, user growth, and monetization strategies. The goal is to drive daily active user growth, believing that reaching 100 million daily active users will significantly expand the business. While focusing on the core experimentation machine, new features may be developed and potentially implemented for Max, but the priority is to provide speaking features to as many users as possible to foster word of mouth and business growth.
Q:What is the impact of attention span on user engagement and session time within the app?
A:The company recognizes that due to general trends of decreasing attention spans, engagement and session times are being actively addressed. Although Duolingo users might engage in shorter bursts, the goal is to ensure that users return multiple times per day to enable compounding benefits. The math and music products are expected to contribute to user growth, despite their smaller user base compared to other features, and the company anticipates growth in these areas.
Q:Is the goal of the company to sell their products to schools?
A:No, the goal is not to sell to schools directly, although they acknowledge that their user base for math is mainly under 18.
Q:Is there a plan to make video call functionality available to all Duolingo users?
A:The plan is to make video call functionality available to all Super subscribers, and it is limited by cost considerations. The feature may become more widely available if costs can be reduced significantly.
Q:How does the company plan to improve its advertising business?
A:The company plans to improve its advertising business by becoming more sophisticated and investing in a professional team, which is expected to lead to higher quality ads and increased revenue from ads.
Q:What is the company's stance on performance marketing and how has it changed?
A:The company's stance on performance marketing has changed from being 'massively allergic' to recognizing it as a valuable tool to complement other marketing strategies. The marketing team now incorporates performance marketing and is seeing positive results.
Q:What is the company's strategy for monetization and is it focused on all users or just a subset?
A:The company's strategy for monetization is not to focus on all users but rather on growing the active user base, with the goal of reaching 100 million daily active users (DAUs).

Duolingo, Inc. Class A
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