好市多公司 (COST.US) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会
文章语言：
简
繁
EN
Share
Minutes
原文
会议摘要
Costco reported a 15% increase in net income and 11.6% rise in net sales for Q3 2026. Membership growth, digital sales expansion, and strategic investments in Kirkland Signature items were highlighted. The company addressed inflation mitigation, gross margin trends, and future capital allocation, aiming to enhance member value and expand its global presence.
会议速览
Costco's Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights Record Gas Sales and Strategic Growth InitiativesCostco's third quarter 2026 earnings call emphasized record-breaking gas sales volumes amidst global market uncertainties, showcasing the company's commitment to member value and strategic growth. Key updates included advancements in new warehouse openings, relocation plans for high-volume locations, and digital enhancements for a seamless shopping experience. The company also discussed its approach to managing inflationary pressures and tariffs, aiming to return savings to members while adapting to market changes.
Revolutionizing Retail: Tech-Driven Enhancements Boost Checkout Speed and Member SatisfactionInvestments in technology, including mobile wallet improvements, digital membership cards, and AI integration, have significantly enhanced checkout speed and member experience. Same-day delivery services have expanded globally, achieving high member satisfaction and driving loyalty. The company is leveraging AI to improve product visibility and pricing authority, positioning itself for future growth.
Strong Q3 Performance: Sales and Income Rise Significantly, Driven by Digital Growth and Inflation AdjustmentsNet income and sales for Q3 showed substantial growth, with income up 15% to $2.192 billion and sales increasing 11.6% to $69.15 billion. Comparable sales, adjusted for gas price inflation and FX, rose 6.6%, while digitally enabled sales surged 21.5%. Traffic and average transaction values also saw significant increases, highlighting strong consumer engagement and digital transformation success.
Q3 Financials Highlight: Membership Growth, Margin Adjustments, and SG&A EfficiencyThe dialogue outlines a detailed financial review for Q3, emphasizing a 10.7% year-over-year increase in membership fee income, primarily driven by membership base expansion and executive membership upgrades. It also discusses a 21 basis point decrease in the gross margin rate, attributed to investments in lower prices for members and higher transportation costs. On the positive side, the SG&A rate improved by 20 basis points, reflecting productivity gains and cost management efforts. The summary captures key financial metrics, including membership growth, margin adjustments, and operational efficiencies.
Q3 Financials, Merchandising Success, and Inflation Trends at a Leading RetailerThe retailer reported a $1.41 billion capital expenditure in Q3, projecting $6.5 billion for the year, focusing on warehouse expansion and digital enhancements. Merchandising thrived, with fresh and non-food categories showing robust sales, despite gas price impacts. Inflation rose slightly, offset by deflation in certain food categories, while non-food inflation is expected to increase. Pharmacy and gas sales surged, and innovative KS items drove growth in food and sundries. The supply chain remains stable with low inventory risk from Middle East shipping issues.
Costco's Q3 Digital Engagement Growth and AI-Powered Sales OpportunitiesDiscussed strong Q3 member engagement with 37% traffic increase, highlighting double-digit growth in various product categories. Personalized recommendations boosted eCommerce sales, with AI enhancing product pages and increasing conversion rates. Launched a new retail media collaboration with Google, aiming to expand digital capabilities and retail media revenue share.
Impact of New Membership Growth on Same Store Sales Outlook Amidst Club Hour ChangesThe dialogue discusses how new membership growth, currently at a low 4.1%, affects same store sales growth expectations. It raises concerns about maintaining these growth outlooks, especially with upcoming changes to club hours. The conversation suggests that the recent dip in membership growth could lead to a more modest sales growth forecast in the near term.
Membership Growth and Executive Member Engagement Boost SpendingDiscussed membership growth, noting 7% increase excluding fee hikes and FX, driven by 9% rise in executive member engagement. Highlighted 4% paid membership growth, normalization of renewal rates, and plans to enhance retention through targeted marketing.
Analyzing Slowing Year-Over-Year Membership Growth and Future OpportunitiesMembership growth has slowed due to lack of new warehouse openings in major markets and higher renewal rates post-initial sign-ups. Despite cycling through strong growth periods, a 4-5% growth rate is considered normal. The company remains optimistic about membership health and future growth opportunities, focusing on same-store sales growth as key for sustained expansion.
Sustained Growth and Market Share Expansion through Value PropositionsThe company continues to grow market share by delivering high-quality items and value, maintaining a 6-7% comp growth excluding gas. Trends from the past year persist, with members showing capacity to spend and expecting quality, value, and newness. Major gift card programs are cycled, yet sales performance remains consistent, and membership spend and growth are stable.
Analysis of Gross Margin Rate Adjustments and Sales Composition ShiftsThe dialogue explores adjustments in gross margin rate, excluding gas inflation, and the strategic value investments in gas and merchandise. It discusses the impact of sales composition shifts, particularly in gas, e-commerce, and pharmacy, on the gross margin rate. The conversation also touches on the composition of comp between traffic and ticket, highlighting increased basket sizes and inflation due to better quality items.
Market Rationality vs. Opportunism: Navigating Pricing Strategies Amid Cost Declines and TariffsDiscusses the rationale behind lowering prices ahead of expected cost declines, considering market rationality, competitive landscape, and the impact of higher gas prices on value delivery to members. Highlights the importance of pricing authority and strategic timing in price adjustments, potentially involving early tariff pass-throughs despite pre-tariff inventory.
Analysis of Gross Margin and SG&A Trends Amidst Strategic Pricing and Cost ManagementThe dialogue discusses fluctuations in gross margin, emphasizing strategic investments and pricing to enhance member value. It also covers SG&A trends, noting unexpected costs like healthcare increases and legal settlements impacting leverage, with expectations of mid-single digit comp leveraging in core operations.
Balancing Retail Media Growth with Member Satisfaction and Capital-Light InnovationDiscussion focused on integrating retail media while prioritizing member experience, emphasizing personalization and value addition. Also explored the effectiveness of technology investments in enhancing productivity and sales, highlighting a capital-light approach to innovation.
Capital Allocation Strategy and Real Estate Relocation OpportunitiesDiscusses capital allocation focusing on business growth investments, dividend growth, stock buybacks, and special dividends for excess cash. Also, outlines real estate relocation criteria based on facility size and sales volume thresholds.
Costco's Strategy on Delivery Speeds Amidst Rising CompetitionThe dialogue explores the importance of delivery speed in the competitive retail landscape, with a focus on Costco's approach. Costco has made strategic acquisitions and partnered with third parties to enhance delivery times, currently achieving high member satisfaction. While the company is content with its current delivery solutions, it remains open to further vertical integration if necessary to maintain competitive advantage.
Analyzing Traffic Trends and Growth Strategies in Retail Stores Amidst Gas InflationThe dialogue discusses traffic trends in retail stores, emphasizing the impact of gas inflation on customer visits. It highlights strategies such as extended operating hours, warehouse remodeling, and strategic infill locations to boost traffic. The conversation also touches on the role of gas station engagement in fostering customer loyalty and increasing visit frequency.
Merchandising Strategies Amid Rising Gas Prices and GLP TrendsDiscusses the impact of high gas prices on consumer behavior, emphasizing consistent focus on quality, value, and newness in merchandising. Highlights successful areas like proteins and GLP opportunities, showcasing strategic adjustments and partnerships with CPGs to meet evolving member needs.
AI Search Enhances Costco's Product Visibility and Value Proposition, Boosting Member Engagement and LoyaltyThe dialogue highlights how AI search benefits Costco by improving product visibility, showcasing comprehensive value including services like delivery and installation, leading to increased member engagement, shopping frequency, and long-term loyalty. Additionally, the gas business sees higher volumes, with member behavior changes indicating a potential for sustained increased throughput and loyalty, reinforcing the overall value proposition.
Analysis of Inflation Trends and Gasoline Pricing Strategies in RetailThe dialogue explores the company's inflation rate, noting higher costs in certain categories like gas and memory chips, while others saw deflation. The company's strategy to widen price gaps in gasoline resulted in higher profits despite lower sales. Concerns over potential increases in plastic and fabric costs due to oil prices are also discussed.
International Expansion of Clubs: Growth Prospects in Canada, Asia, and EuropeThe dialogue outlines a strategic plan for club expansion, highlighting significant growth opportunities in Canada over the next five years, with consistent strong potential. In Asia, China, Korea, and Japan are identified as key markets with high potential. Europe shows promise, especially in France, Spain, and the UK, where growth is expected over the next three to ten years. The club pipeline is robust, with a focus on multi-year growth in these regions.
Analysis of Executive Membership Growth and China Rollout ProgressDiscussed factors driving executive membership growth, including upgrades from gold and new sign-ups, with emphasis on benefits like extended hours and Instacart savings. Noted year-over-year growth in new members, attributing success to overall momentum. Highlighted China's executive membership rollout exceeding expectations, with potential future expansion in select international markets pending growth.
要点回答
Q：What are the financial results for Costco's third quarter of 2026?
A：For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Costco reported a net income of $2.192 billion, or $4.93 per diluted share, an increase of 15% from the previous year. Net sales were $69.15 billion, an increase of 11.6% from $61.96 billion in Q3 2025. Comparable sales, adjusted for gas price inflation and foreign exchange, were up 9.8%.
Q：What were the significant impacts on sales in the third quarter due to gas prices and foreign exchange?
A：In the third quarter, sales were positively impacted by gas price inflation by approximately 2.2%, and by foreign exchange (FX) by about 1%. The combination of these factors contributed to the overall sales growth.
Q：How did membership fee income grow and what contributed to the increase?
A：Membership fee income of $1.373 billion million increased 10.7 percent from the prior year primarily due to a continued growing membership base and an increase in executive membership. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, member revenue increased by 9.9 percent, mainly driven by the growth of the member base and the upgrading of executive memberships.
Q：What was the renewal rate for memberships at the end of the quarter, and what does this signify?
A：The membership card renewal rate was 89.7 percent at the end of Q3, unchanged from the previous quarter. Although the average renewal rate of members registered online is lower than that of members registered in the warehouse, due to the growth of the proportion of members registered online, there is some downward pressure on the overall renewal rate, but the company has successfully offset this impact through targeted digital marketing and retention strategies.
Q：What were the changes in gross margin rates and what factors contributed to these changes?
A：The reported gross margin rate decreased by 21 basis points year over year to 11.04%, while the core gross margin rate was lower by 46 basis points. Lower core on core margins were due to slightly lower margins in fresh produce and food and sundries, and higher transportation costs due to increased gas prices. The increase in e-commerce and pharmacy sales, which are at a higher margin, contributed to a gross margin rate increase, but this was partially offset by a lower gross margin rate in the gas business.
Q：What was the year-over-year change in the reported SGA rate and how did it benefit from gas inflation?
A：The reported SGA rate was lower or better year over year by 20 basis points, coming in at 8.96% compared to 9.16% in the prior year. It benefited five basis points from lapping the catch-up accrual in Q3 last year for higher vacation days in the 2025 employee agreement.
Q：How did interest income and expense fluctuate between the current and prior year?
A：Interest expense was $32 million compared to $35 million last year. Interest income increased to $130 million from $95 million in the prior year, driven by higher cash balances. Other income, related to foreign exchange, was a $25 million benefit versus a $10 million loss in the prior year.
Q：What was the capital expenditure forecast for the full year and how was it expected to be allocated?
A：The estimated capital expenditure (CapEx) for the full year is approximately $6.5 billion, with continued investment planned in building a larger pipeline of new warehouses, remodeling existing warehouses, expanding the depot network, and enhancing the member digital experience.
Q：What impact did gas prices have on members' spending and sales in the quarter?
A：Gas prices had a major impact, with members allocating a greater proportion of their spend to gas. Sales were robust, excluding gas, with fresh comparable sales up high single digits, led by meat and bakery. Non-foods comp sales were also up high single digits.
Q：Which departments experienced strong sales growth, and why were certain items in the health and beauty department popular?
A：Top performing departments included gold and jewelry, small electrics, tires, home furnishings, health and beauty self-care and wellness items. The health and beauty department saw strong sales due to fragrances, hair and skin products, while small appliances saw members willing to spend on higher value self-care items like sauna and massage chairs.
Q：What were the details regarding the new KS items and their savings compared to the national brand equivalent?
A：Costco continued to innovate with new KS items, offering savings of at least 15% to 20% with equal or better quality than the national brand equivalent. Q3 launches included KS energy drink, ultra-filtered milk, sea salt popcorn, and oven-roasted chicken dog food.
Q：How did the ancillary businesses perform, and what were the main contributors to their growth?
A：Ancillary business comp sales were up mid-20s, with pharmacy leading the way and gaining significant market share. Growth was driven by various factors, including increased GLP-1 demand, inclusion of wegovy and ozempic in the member prescription program, great value on certain medications, acceptance of Medicare D over-the-counter flex cards, and expanded mail-order and specialty pharmacy offerings.
Q：What was the effect of inflation in Q3, and what are the expectations for future inflation?
A：Overall inflation increased slightly in Q3 due to higher gas prices, but was offset by lower inflation in food and sundries and fresh produce. Non-food inflation increased slightly and is expected to grow further due to higher resin costs. The company's buyers are working to mitigate the impact of cost increases.
Q：What is the current state of the supply chain and inventory position?
A：The supply chain is generally stable and merchants feel good about the inventory position. There is low inventory exposure to shipping issues stemming from the Middle East situation, but the company continues to monitor the situation closely.
Q：What were the trends in digital engagement and the impact of AI on sales and conversion rates?
A：Digital engagement saw strong member activity with site and app traffic up 37%. Double-digit year-over-year growth was seen in various departments and personalized product recommendation carousels delivered three times better conversion rates than typical, contributing nearly half a billion dollars in eCommerce sales.
Q：What is the progress in the retail media partnership with Google and YouTube?
A：Q3 marked the launch of a new collaboration with Google Commerce Media and YouTube, making it easier for brands and agencies to collaborate with Costco Retail Media. This partnership is a significant milestone in increasing the company's share of retail media revenue.
Q：How is the company's new membership growth and renewal rates contributing to same store sales?
A：The company is pleased with the membership growth results, which include a 7% increase overall, with fee increase and foreign exchange excluded. Executive members, who tend to spend more, grew over 9%. The renewal rate has normalized, and with a focus on targeted marketing and retention strategies, the company aims to improve and stabilize this rate. The slowing year-over-year membership growth is attributed to lack of major new market entries and increased signups from a year ago.
Q：What is the current state of the company's sales trends and how do they compare to the previous year?
A：The company's recent sales results, excluding gas, are in the 6 to 7% range, and there has been no significant variation from this performance over the last year. This indicates a continuation of the positive sales trends from the previous year.
Q：What is the general trend in the company's gross margin and how is it managed?
A：The company tends to focus on the gross margin rate excluding gas inflation or deflation and manages the business holistically rather than looking at one component in isolation. Over the last 12 to 24 months, the gross margin rate, adjusted for gas, has been stable with a slight improvement in the mid-single-digit range. The company invests in value for members, as evidenced by the opportunity to invest in everyday items and widen gas gaps in response to higher gas prices.
Q：How has the company's pricing strategy responded to the current market and competitive environment?
A：The company has been investing in value for members by lowering prices on items like beef and eggs, especially given the impact of higher gas prices. These moves are strategic and not reactionary, aiming to maintain pricing authority and deliver value to members. The company also passes on savings from lower commodity costs, like eggs, to the members quickly, aligning with their approach of being the first to lower prices and the last to raise them.
Q：What are the company's views on total comp, core leverage on SG&A, and the effect of currency fluctuations and healthcare costs?
A：The company's view on total comp is around 4 to 5%, and they have seen core leverage on SG&A. However, they noted a deleveraging effect of 3 basis points due to certain factors, including currency impacts and healthcare cost increases. The company expects that excluding gas, and normal levels of gas, they would have seen a more consistent mid-single-digit comp delivering some level of leverage.
Q：How does the company assess the impact of legal settlements and reserve expenses on their financial performance?
A：Legal settlements and reserves impacted the central numbers, but outside of these one-time items, the company would have seen a reasonable amount of leverage during the quarter. The healthcare cost increases and a few small one-time items more than offset the core operation's leverage. The company acknowledges the possibility of unpredictable items each quarter but maintains that without these one-time expenses, the quarter would have demonstrated a more consistent level of comp with mid-single-digit leverage.
Q：What considerations are involved in balancing member satisfaction with the business opportunity in the retail media segment?
A：The company's business model in retail media is focused on SKU efficiency, and they are at a nice turning point for balancing member satisfaction with the significant business opportunity. The implementation of technology such as AI and automation for improving the checkout process and customer happiness, along with strategic use of distribution and speed, are key aspects of their approach.
Q：What is the primary focus of Costco's retail media strategy and how does it align with member experience?
A：The primary focus of Costco's retail media strategy is to build personalization capabilities in order to deliver more relevant messaging to members, thereby improving their experience, saving them time and money. The strategy aligns with member experience by prioritizing member value and 80% to 90% of the generated value is reinvested in the member to enhance their experience and pricing.
Q：How does Costco plan to use future tariffs and cash balances?
A：Costco plans to continue investing in the business to drive growth, including accelerating new and remodeling warehouses, expanding the depot network, and digital member engagement. They will also grow the regular dividend, buy back stock to avoid dilution from executive stock grants, and consider special dividends as a way to return excess cash without compromising growth opportunities.
Q：What is the process for relocating Costco stores and what factors are considered?
A：The process for relocating Costco stores is based on the existing facility size and performance. If an older, smaller facility reaches a certain sales threshold compared to newer, larger facilities, it triggers the opportunity to grow sales in the market. The decision to relocate is influenced by the size of the business, the facility, and the quality of service to members, including gas stations, parking lots, and warehouse capacity.
Q：Is Costco considering building its own delivery infrastructure or relying on third parties?
A：Costco is evaluating its delivery capabilities and considering options for improving delivery times. A few years back, they made an acquisition to improve big and bulky delivery times. At the current time, they are satisfied with their third-party partners and are averaging 45 minutes or less for same-day delivery. They continue to assess the need to further integrate vertically in the delivery business.
Q：How does calendar shift and gas prices impact Costco's traffic?
A：Calendar shifts and gas prices can impact Costco's traffic. For example, the acceleration in April was partially due to gas inflation, which drove more traffic into stores. Over the past 12 months, there has been a mix change with an increase in basket size and traffic. While individual months may show variability due to different dynamics, such as members' behavior changes, Costco feels good about the overall traffic growth trajectory on a two-year and individual year basis.
Q：How are members' increased visits to the gas station impacting their overall behavior and loyalty towards the company?
A：The increased frequency of visits to the gas station is resulting in higher overall visits, increased spending, and a higher renewal rate among members. The company views these behaviors as a good indicator of long-term growth for the business as they continue to drive engagement in gas.
Q：What are the main areas of focus for merchandising and category management at Costco, and how are members responding to these offerings?
A：The main areas of focus for merchandising at Costco include quality, value, and newness. Everyday value items are performing well, as are items that offer excitement and newness. Specific examples include tires and major appliances in non-foods, and health and beauty and small appliances in food and sundries. In terms of member response, protein-rich items such as protein bars and beef sticks are performing extremely well.
Q：What kind of feedback has Costco received regarding its search functionality and product pages, and what are the plans for the future?
A：The feedback received on the search functionality and product pages has been positive, with member reviews and feedback showing a commitment to great value and quality. The company plans to ensure consistent search results for these items in the future, leveraging large language models to translate and reflect the value proposition across product categories.
Q：How has the increase in fuel volumes at Costco been influenced by the change in consumer behavior due to higher gas prices?
A：The increase in fuel volumes at Costco is attributed to a change in consumer behavior due to higher gas prices. The company believes that by providing more value to members through wider gaps in prices, there has been an increase in frequent visits and overall loyalty. The effect is seen in members' willingness to travel further or spend more time filling up due to busy gas stations. The company anticipates that the increased engagement with gas is a reminder of the overall value they provide, which is likely to drive long-term loyalty.
Q：What does the club pipeline look like for the next few years in different regions, and what countries are considered for potential expansion?
A：The club pipeline for the next few years is expected to show consistent strong growth in Canada over the next five years, with the potential for further expansion afterwards. In Asia, there are opportunities in China, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. In Europe, growth is expected in France and Spain, with significant growth anticipated in Spain over the next three years. The UK has also shown strength. Overall, the company sees very strong international expansion potential over the next five to ten years, with the highlighted countries outside of North America being leaders.
Q：What trends are observed in executive membership strength, and how is the membership acquisition performing with the increase in gas prices?
A：The executive membership strength has shown an increase in membership upgrades from Gold to Executive membership and a higher penetration of new members signing up for Executive membership, particularly due to the extra benefits offered. The company is encouraged by the continued year-over-year growth in new member sign-ups, though it does not attribute it to any one factor. With the spike in gas prices, the company is seeing improved new membership acquisition through the spring season.
Q：How is the rollout of the China executive membership program progressing, and what countries might still see the roll-out of the program in the future?
A：The rollout of the China executive membership program is ahead of expectations. The program's success in China exceeded initial expectations, and the company is considering expanding the executive membership in countries where they do not currently have it, particularly those with a lower number of warehouses. Over time, as the company grows its presence in these countries, it may make sense to roll out the executive membership program.
Costco Wholesale Corp.
Follow
