阿斯麦公司 (ASML.US) 2026年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
ASML reports €8.8 billion Q1 2026 sales, driven by AI infrastructure demand. Highlights include increased productivity, EUV/DUV tool output expansion, and strategic capacity planning to support customer needs and market growth, ensuring no bottleneck effect.
会议速览
The conference call, led by ASML's investor relations head, discusses the company's 2026 first quarter financial results. Participants are encouraged to listen and prepare questions for a Q&A session, emphasizing forward-looking statements with associated risks and uncertainties. The call is being recorded and live-streamed, with a transcript available post-call on the company's website.
The dialogue covers the financial achievements of the first quarter of 2026, including net sales, system sales, and gross margins, followed by guidance for the second quarter, which includes sales and margin expectations. It also discusses shareholder returns, such as dividends and share purchases, highlighting a 17% increase in annual dividends.
ASML forecasts robust revenue growth and capacity expansion due to high demand for advanced lithography systems, particularly EUV, driven by AI investments. The company highlights ongoing technology advancements, including improved productivity of low NA EUV and the introduction of Ina, aimed at supporting further cost reductions for customers. ASML expects strong market conditions to persist, with plans to significantly increase output and maintain a gross margin between 55% and 57% for 2026.
A discussion on updated revenue guidance reveals that the increase in immersion systems, particularly benefiting non-Chinese customers, is a key driver. Despite this, gross margin guidance remains stable, balancing the higher costs of ramping up operations and hiring.
ASML discussed its capacity expansion and growth strategies for 2027, emphasizing close collaboration with customers to meet increasing demand. The company is preparing to build low Na UV systems and is working to increase production to at least 80 units, reflecting ongoing discussions with customers. While 2028 is considered too far for detailed planning, 2027 is a focus, with efforts to ensure sufficient capacity and meet customer needs, indicating a strong commitment to demand fulfillment.
Discusses the factors influencing gross margins, highlights efforts to boost productivity and supply chain management, and emphasizes collaboration with customers to optimize capacity and tool productivity.
Accelerated productivity upgrades and immediate capacity solutions through software switches significantly boost customer happiness, reflecting strong installed base sales and the company's ability to swiftly meet customer demands.
Discussed future EUV tool demand and ASP growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining Dpv capacity amidst varying market demands, particularly outside China, and the anticipated shift in tool mix impacting revenue.
The dialogue explores the potential role of high-NA lithography in advanced logic and memory markets, discussing its capability to address capacity demands and mask set reduction. It also highlights the F model's improved throughput and ASP, noting a 15% increase over the E model, with potential further gains from enhanced availability and overlay performance.
Speakers discuss the need to reassess market projections, particularly in DRAM, due to recent AI developments and increased capacity. They anticipate sharing updated long-term market views at an upcoming capital market event, acknowledging the evolving landscape and the importance of time for accurate analysis.
The dialogue discusses the potential for revenue exceeding $60 billion and the implications for gross margins, emphasizing EUV tool productivity, volume improvements, and fixed cost absorption as critical factors. The conversation highlights the interdependence of these elements and the need for continued innovation and efficiency gains to sustain margin improvements, with a forward-looking approach to future capital markets updates.
Discussion highlights ASML's strategies in supporting foundry growth, emphasizing contributions to hybrid bonding technology, and the benefits of a multi-player market in driving innovation.
Discussion revolves around customer clean room capacity constraints, emphasizing increased production capabilities and solidifying 2026 plans. Despite supply limitations, robust demand from DRAM customers and logic sectors indicates a strong market, prompting accelerated capital expenditure and active preparation for future growth.
The dialogue highlights the DRAM industry's increased adoption of EUV lithography to address capacity and performance needs, leading to higher demand for EUV tools. It also discusses customer openness regarding expansion plans and the company's pricing model based on tool value, not market squeeze. Capacity alignment for 2027 is determined by customer market gauges and fab progress.
The dialogue covers inquiries about the sources of Q1 margin outperformance, attributing it to high-margin install base management and upgrade services. It also discusses strategies for capacity expansion, emphasizing avoiding bottlenecks through various means including tool manufacturing, cycle time improvements, and strategic land acquisition, while maintaining financial prudence.
要点回答
Q:What are the financial results for ASML's first quarter of 2026?
A:In the first quarter of 2026, ASML reported total net sales of €8.8 billion, with system sales at €6.3 billion, install base management sales at €2.5 billion, and a gross non clinical water at the high end of guidance at 63%. Net Income was €2.8 billion, representing 31.4% of total net sales, and earnings per share were €7.5. Leasing expenses were rounded to €2 billion, and operating expenses were as guided. The quarterly free cash flow was negative €2.6 billion.
Q:What is the expected range for total net sales in the second quarter of 2026?
A:For the second quarter of 2026, ASML expects total net sales to be between €8.4 billion and €9 billion.
Q:What is the expected gross margin for Q2 2026?
A:The expected gross margin for Q2 2026 is between 51% and 52%.
Q:What is the expected range for the final dividend proposal in Q1 2026?
A:The expected range for the final dividend proposal in Q1 2026 is €2.7 per ordinary share.
Q:What are the expectations for ASML's growth in 2026 and how is the capacity expansion plan?
A:ASML expects growth in 2026, with an output plan of at least 60 low EUV systems and scaling dqv and application products in alignment. They are increasing the move rates for their Hpm product to raise low Na UV capacity to at least that level next year. ASML continues to see a strong year ahead and has updated their script guidance to a revenue range of between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a maintained expectation of a gross margin between Ed and Ed.
Q:How is EUV revenue expected to change in 2026, and what drives non-EUV revenue growth?
A:EUV revenue is expected to raise significantly in 2026 due to dynamics in advanced logic and memory markets. Non-EUV revenue is now expected to grow as customers add more DB libray to support their expansion plans.
Q:What are the recent technology advancements and roadmap developments highlighted by ASML?
A:ASML has made progress with their low NA road map, including reaching at least Ed wafer per hour on low Nau V by the start of the next decade. They demonstrated a 10 wafer per hour increase with a 1000 W source and plan to start shipping the NX 3800 F system in 2027 with volume production savings for 2028. The Ine platform has processed over half a million wafers and achieved over 80% availability. Ina can replace complex multipathing processes and support line expectations for 18 nm for logic and compact, which is below 20 to 28 nanometers for the Ram.
Q:What factors are driving the uptick in non-Chinese customer immersion levels?
A:The uptick in non-Chinese customer immersion levels is primarily driven by an improvement in EUV performance and a focus on getting immersion close to the levels from last year. This is expected to flow to non-Chinese customers.
Q:What is the impact of EUV on the company's gross margin and what is the expectation for the full year?
A:The impact of EUV on gross margin is such that it increases the margin, despite contributing to a narrower gross margin range for the current quarter. For the entire year, despite increased immersion and a higher move rate, the guidance for gross margin remains steady.
Q:How is the company addressing the visibility and growth profile beyond 2023?
A:While visibility is limited and discussions with customers are primarily about 2026 and 2027, the company is working hard to ensure customer needs are met. Discussions for 2027 are centered around capacity increase. However, extending visibility and growth profile into 2028 is considered too distant at the moment.
Q:Can you describe the company's readiness and discussions for 2027 with customers?
A:The company is actively working on growing its move rate every quarter and is in discussions to create more capacity for customers. They are also preparing to build at least a low Na UV system next year. Discussions about meeting demand for 2027 are ongoing, and the company aims to stay aligned with customer needs. The current numbers reflect ongoing discussions and the company's strong mission to meet demand.
Q:What factors contributed to the negative gross margin change in March?
A:The negative gross margin change in March was driven by several factors including the absence of very high-margin elements from the upgrade business in the second quarter as was seen in the first quarter, and the increase in headcount related to optics preparation and move rates.
Q:How is the company managing supply and demand issues?
A:The company is managing supply and demand by focusing on the optics and mirror front of the supply chain, among other things. They have been preparing the supply chain to handle the increase in demand, and so far, it has been able to support the move rate increase. Additionally, the 3800 E tool has improved, allowing for better cycle time and more tools. They are working with customers to understand their capacity requirements and upgrading their existing equipment while also focusing on productivity enhancements.
Q:What is the expected relationship between the number of DUV tools and the number of wafers per hour produced?
A:The expected relationship is that as the number of DUV tools increases, the number of wafers produced per hour will also increase. Unit numbers and productivity are both important factors to consider.
Q:Should ASML consider adding more Dpv capacity due to lower sales in China?
A:ASML believes that their current total capacity of 600 Dp tools is sufficient considering the company's plans for the next build cycle and the reduced sales in China compared to past up cycles. They are focusing on the fact that not all of their capacity is tied to the Chinese market, as they have other means to adjust the numbers if needed, including for UV capacity which will also increase immersion capacity.
Q:What is the relationship between the demand for immersion and EUV tools, and how does it affect ASML's strategy?
A:ASML sees a direct relationship between the demand for immersion tools and the demand for EUV tools, as the demand for non-Chinese customers in immersion scales with the demand for EV. They emphasize the importance of paying attention to the ramp of both DUV and immersion tools, given the high script costs associated with both, especially for non-China customers.
Q:How will the shift in the mix of EUV tools shipped affect ASML's revenue growth and ASPs in the upcoming year?
A:ASML expects that the revenue growth for EUV tools next year will be positively affected by the shift in the mix of EUV tools being shipped. They anticipate that the majority of tools will be for EUV cycles and that the F tool will also be introduced. The customer planning for node ramps suggests that the lion's share of tools will be for EUV, which will drive high throughput and improve the number of ASRPs. Consequently, ASML predicts that the ASPs for next year will be more favorable, leading to an improvement in revenue growth.
Q:What are ASML's expectations for high-nm adoption in advanced logic and memory markets?
A:ASML acknowledges the high demand for advanced logic and memory and contemplates the potential role of high-NA in that market. They note that some customers are already testing high-NA on real products to demonstrate their ability to use the tool effectively. The decision to adopt high-NA will depend on the tool's maturity and the strong capacity requirements continuing. ASML does not provide a definitive answer but suggests that it's a possibility to be watched closely in the coming months.
Q:What is the expected impact of the F model and ISP on ASML's throughput and revenue?
A:The expected impact of the F model and ISP on ASML's throughput is a 15% increase over the E model. However, ASML also suggests that improvements in availability and overlay can further impact revenue positively. The company does not typically negotiate with customers regarding the revenue impact of these increased capabilities but acknowledges that historically there is a strong correlation between throughput and ASP, suggesting a potential positive revenue impact.
Q:Are the new numbers provided by ASML for 2030 capacity in line with expectations, and how does the recent focus on AI impact these projections?
A:The new numbers provided by ASML for 2030 capacity are in the right ballpark but need to be re-evaluated in light of recent changes in the market due to advancements in AI. The numbers discussed in relation to advanced logic and DRAM capacity appear optimistic and may require a re-evaluation. ASML indicates that they plan to share results for NED next year in the capital market day after further analysis.
Q:How does ASML expect DRAM capacity to influence future projections?
A:ASML sees a significant change in the DRAM market, with strong added capacity and a need to understand its long-term impact. They believe that the market is very strong and expect significant changes in added capacity per year, which is above the numbers discussed previously. ASML advises waiting for their capital market day next year to revisit and refine their assumptions regarding long-term market views.
Q:What are ASML's expectations for gross margins and the factors influencing them?
A:ASML's expectations for gross margins are influenced by the productivity improvements of EUV tools, the increase in ASPs, and high-volume production of DUV tools. Improvements in DUV and the number of tools absorbing fixed costs related to Ina are also critical. Continued improvement in EUV base and addressing DPU capacity in the future could lead to higher gross margins. ASML suggests revisiting assumptions at their capital markets day next year.
Q:To what extent are ASML assuming the contribution from foundry players in the upcoming year, and how significant could it be?
A:ASML is not providing a specific outlook on the contribution from foundry players in the upcoming year. However, they acknowledge that there has been progress from some foundry players and that the impact of these players' success will be significant to assess. They suggest the importance of revising assumptions regarding market expectations at their capital market day next year.
Q:How important is hybrid bonding for ASML's customers, and how might ASML support their efforts in this area?
A:The importance of hybrid bonding for ASML's customers is recognized, and there is potential for ASML to contribute to their efforts in this process. ASML is exploring ways they could support customers with hybrid bonding, although specific details and the significance of this process are not elaborated upon in the provided transcript.
Q:What are the expectations for 3D integration in the tools provided to customers?
A:3D integration is expected to become an important part of the tools provided to customers, which will increase delivery density and performance on their wafers.
Q:What is the significance of the x.c. 260 S tool in advanced packaging?
A:The x.c. 260 S is an important tool for advanced packaging, and there is good traction with it. ASML is also looking at further opportunities to support customers in this area, particularly with bonding technology.
Q:What is the current market situation for foundry business and what are the plans of other players entering the market?
A:The demand in the foundry business outweighs the supply, leaving room for other players to enter the market. Plans from companies like Samsung and TAIWBAN are anticipated to increase demand for shipments in this business.
Q:How will the entry of additional players into the foundry business impact innovation?
A:With multiple players in the foundry business, there is likely to be increased innovation, which is beneficial for the ecosystem. The presence of three players is expected to guarantee even more innovation.
Q:To what extent is ASML's ability to ship constrained by its own tool production and customers' clean room space?
A:Clean room capacity has been a key factor constraining ASML's production capabilities, particularly in the current year. However, ASML has increased its range for 2026, indicating progress in addressing this limitation. There is currently a supply limitation, as customers are hesitant to accelerate capital expenditure due to the high capacity already in place.
Q:What are the implications of the current supply and demand situation for DRAM customers?
A:The supply of Hes is limited, which is constraining DRAM customers' ability to accelerate capital expenditure. The focus at this point is on investing as quickly as possible, rather than in additional supply.
Q:How is the shift to new nodes and EUV affecting litho intensity in the DRAM sector?
A:The shift to new nodes and EUV in the DRAM sector is leading to a higher litho intensity as the use of EUV layers reduces the need for multi patterning, which occupies more space in the fabrication process.
Q:How does the DRAM sector's capacity build affect ASML's lithography tools and their future adoption?
A:The capacity build in the DRAM sector has led to a strong adoption of EUV, which is translating into high demand for ASML's tools this year and in the future. This is considered a positive sign for future adoption of ASML's Ina lithography tools.
Q:What is the change in behavior from customers regarding visibility and commitments for future tool orders?
A:Customers have become more open regarding visibility and commitments for future tool orders, and they are also very transparent about their expansion plans, including discussions about potential capacity expansion.
Q:What is ASML's approach to pricing and does the current market climate affect this approach?
A:ASML's pricing model is not based on the squeeze that customers are facing but rather on the value provided to customers. The company continues to believe in this fair and value-based pricing model, and does not plan to change it even in the current market climate.
Q:What is the basis for the projection of capacity for 2027, and is it solely based on customer feedback?
A:The projection of capacity for 2027 is based on the alignment with customers that takes into account their market situation, progress in fabrication facilities, and their capacity requirements. This alignment also includes providing capacity based on the right approach for the customers.
Q:What is the expected pattern of business in terms of upgrades and in-software business throughout the year?
A:The company expects upgrades to continue throughout the year and while the mix of services within the upgrade business varies, certain types come with very high gross margins. Specifically, software-based upgrades have very high gross margins, while others may have less. The in-software business is also expected to continue and is aligned with an environment where customers are seeking upgrades.
Q:How diverse are the margins within the upgrade business?
A:The margins within the upgrade business are very diverse and depend heavily on the specific type of upgrade being discussed. As a result, it is not appropriate to provide a single number to represent the gross margins across all upgrades.
Q:Is there a closing gap between traditional maintenance and traditional upgrade cycles, and what is its significance?
A:The significance of the gap closing between traditional maintenance and traditional upgrade cycles was discussed, with a focus on the gross margin differences. However, the exact percentage points gap is not specified in the transcript, and the emphasis was on the diversity of margin profiles across different types of upgrades, indicating that the gap's significance varies by type.
Q:How has the company's approach to the gross margin in the upgrade business evolved over time?
A:The company's approach to gross margins in the upgrade business has evolved from previously bleeding money with negative gross margins to now achieving a level that is no longer significantly apart from the corporate gross margin. However, due to the diverse margin profiles, a specific number for the gross margin on the upgrade business cannot be provided.
Q:What has been done to prepare for future capacity needs and potential growth?
A:Future capacity needs and potential growth have been prepared for by ensuring the company has the necessary tools and strategies in place, including increasing the number of tools manufactured, optimizing cycle times, enhancing productivity, and potentially expanding the physical footprint. Regular reviews are conducted to ensure that these strategies are effective, and the company has taken measures to ensure land and expansion capabilities are secured for future growth.
Q:How did ASML manage to double EUV capacity in a short period?
A:ASML managed to double EUV capacity in about two years by implementing various strategies, which included the long lead time items strategy that provided flexibility and freedom for future actions, such as expanding land bank and having sufficient room for expansion. This strategic planning and execution enabled ASML to quickly increase its capacity without compromising its position in the market.
Q:What strategies are in place to ensure ASML is not a bottleneck for its customers?
A:To ensure ASML is not a bottleneck for its customers, the company is closely working with them and employing various strategies to manage and increase capacity. This includes utilizing all available tools and continuously reviewing and adapting to ensure customer demand is met. ASML's focus is to maintain a proactive stance to avoid being a bottleneck and to support its customers' needs effectively.

ASML Holding NV
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