迈威尔科技 (MRVL.US) 2026财年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Marvell Technology Inc. achieved record revenues exceeding $2.2 billion in Q4 2026, driven by robust data center demand. Projected growth includes 8% Q1 2027 revenue increase to $2.4 billion, over 40% annual growth reaching $11 billion by 2027, and data center revenue expanding 50% YoY to $15 billion by 2028. Innovations in coherent light products, interconnects, and custom solutions, supported by acquisitions, secure Marvell's leadership in DCI and AEC markets, with CPO revenue forecasted to reach $1 billion by 2029.
会议速览
The dialogue covers Marvell Technology's Q4 and fiscal year earnings, introducing key executives and emphasizing forward-looking statements with associated risks, as well as referencing non-GAAP financial measures. Participants are reminded of the recording and the call's structure, including a Q&A session following the presentation.
Marvell achieved record revenue in Q4 fiscal 2026, with data center revenue growing 21% year-over-year. The company forecasts a significant revenue increase in fiscal 2027, driven by strong demand in the data center, particularly in interconnects and custom silicon. Looking ahead, Marvell anticipates continued robust growth in fiscal 2028, with data center revenue expected to grow close to 50% year-over-year, bolstered by AI infrastructure investments and contributions from recent acquisitions.
Marvell showcases its leadership in high-speed interconnect solutions, from scale-out and scale-across technologies to pioneering scale-up innovations like Celestial Ai's PF technology, anticipating significant market growth and revenue increases in the coming years.
Marvell forecasts a booming scale-up interconnect market, exceeding $10 billion by 2030, driven by AI platforms, custom solutions, and optical technologies. The company has secured design wins with tier 1 hyperscalers, anticipates combined AEC and re-timer revenue to double, and is advancing with 51.2T and 100T platforms. Marvell's integration of CPO technology, Pcie, and CXL solutions, alongside its custom business growth, positions it for significant revenue gains, with custom revenue expected to at least double in fiscal 2028. The company's strategic initiatives, including the Golden Cable Initiative and UA Link 115T sampling, underscore its commitment to innovation and market leadership in data center and AI infrastructure.
Marvell concludes fiscal 2026 with a 42% revenue increase, driven by AI demand in data centers and communications markets. Non-GAAP EPS rose 81%, showcasing strong operating leverage. The company forecasts continued growth in fiscal 2027, with Q1 revenue expected to grow 27% year-over-year, accelerating throughout the year. Capital returns to shareholders reached $2.245 billion, reflecting Marvell's commitment to shareholder value and positioning for future AI opportunities.
The dialogue outlines projected GAAP and non-GAAP financial metrics for the upcoming fiscal year, emphasizing steady growth in existing franchises, AI investments, and custom services. It forecasts operational expense management, tax rates, earnings per share, and anticipates robust multi-year revenue growth, inviting a Q&A session for further insights.
Discussion highlights the company's strategic diversification across top US hyperscalers, emphasizing a broad customer base and product mix, including advancements in PCIe, Ual, and silicon photonics, ensuring long-term growth and reduced concentration risk.
The dialogue highlights robust market validation for AI compute spending, with significant investments in custom XPUs by major customers. The speaker discusses the company's positive outlook, noting that custom XPUs are expected to contribute to strong revenue growth, particularly in the second half of the year. An upward bias in exit rates and expanding partnerships with new tier 1 and hyperscaler clients further bolster the company's prospects for fiscal 28 and beyond.
The electro-optics portfolio is outpacing capital expenditure growth, with projections indicating a sustained momentum through fiscal year 28, driven by higher ASPs and new program launches.
Discussion revolves around the anticipated growth of custom business, with expectations surpassing 20% for fiscal 27, leaning towards higher figures. Confidence stems from past successes, detailed planning, and alignment on manufacturing, aiming for production increases in fiscal 28, with potential for significant upward adjustments.
Discusses the progression of financial forecasts from September to present, attributing improvements to better visibility, conservative initial estimates, strong bookings, and detailed customer conversations, projecting continued growth into the next year.
Discusses setting and revising ambitious data center revenue targets from April 2024, highlighting progress and validation of initial plans, emphasizing execution for future growth.
A discussion on the significant growth potential of emerging product areas, particularly AEC and re-timers, which are expected to double and continue growing, highlighting market opportunities and product leadership.
A strategic focus on leveraging DSP and Pam technologies, along with acquisitions like infi and cestio, positions the company as an end-to-end provider of electrical, optical, and silicon photonics solutions, aiming to meet customer demands for scalable, reusable, and high-trust interconnect solutions across various distances and form factors.
Discussed the company's confidence in maintaining an exclusive position with a major new SKU customer, emphasizing deep customer engagements and long-term planning. The speaker highlighted the importance of multi-generational technology planning and substantial investments in key areas valued by XP customers, ensuring alignment with future roadmaps and growth beyond current revenue targets.
The XPU attach market, with a total addressable market of 15 billion by 2028, is forecasted to reach a billion-dollar business by next year, aiming for a 20% market share. Starting from a few hundred million, the growth is anticipated to double annually, indicating a massive upward trajectory within custom business frameworks.
Discussed the current state of the electronic business, emphasizing the strong demand for 800G technology with a projection that it will remain dominant through next year. While 1.6T shipments are ramping up significantly, precise volume forecasts were deferred due to the dynamic nature of the market. The outlook for interconnects was bolstered by customer demand revisions, particularly for 1.6T, with expectations for continued growth throughout the year and into the next.
Discusses overcoming supply constraints in AI components, leveraging supplier relationships, and securing growth through long-term planning and visibility.
Exploration of the components beneath the top line, including gross margin mix and investments, to achieve the earnings target. Assurance of leverage and margin improvements, leading to an earnings figure above $5.
Discussed Marvell's strategic approach towards CPO scale up, highlighting limited CPO deployment compared to transceivers, potential integration of Celestial technology with Notium platform, and anticipation of CPO's significant role in scale up applications, particularly in switch designs, with plans to ship CPO for scale up to a major customer next year, while maintaining copper-based solutions for other deployments.
Discusses rationale behind focusing on processors despite connectivity bottlenecks, emphasizing competitive dynamics and value proposition in AI system development.
A discussion on prioritizing investments in interconnect technology and custom business for AI, emphasizing growth and strategic advantages despite market noise.
A speaker emphasizes the inaccuracies in past reports, highlights the company's strong outlook, and commits to driving significant revenue growth at Marvell, expressing confidence in their business strategy.
The CEO expresses gratitude to participants, emphasizes Marvell's strong business growth, record design wins, and accelerating revenue targets, aiming for 15 billion in revenue next year, and credits the team's dedication and customer focus as key to achieving ambitious goals in the AI infrastructure buildout.
要点回答
Q:How are the recent acquisitions expected to impact Marvell's financial performance?
A:The recent acquisitions are expected to significantly enhance Marvell's position in the AI scale-up networking market. Although they are not expected to contribute meaningfully to financial results until fiscal 2027, they are anticipated to add to Marvell's overall revenue outlook for the fiscal year, with a particular impact seen in the data center business.
Q:What were the financial highlights of Marvell's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026?
A:Marvell's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 financial highlights include record revenue of $2.219 billion, representing sequential growth and exceeding the midpoint of guidance. Non GAAP earnings per share of 80 cents also exceeded the midpoint of guidance. For the full fiscal year, revenue grew year over year to approximately $8.2 billion, and data center revenue surpassed $6 billion, growing 46% year over year.
Q:What is the updated revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 and what factors are driving the growth?
A:The updated revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 is approximately $10 billion, up from a previous estimate of $9.5 billion. Growth is being driven by a continued increase in CapEx forecasts, robust demand across the entire data center, bookings acceleration, and a strong ramp-up in customers. The data center revenue is expected to grow by 40% year over year, with all key product lines performing better than prior outlooks.
Q:What are the expectations for Marvell's data center revenue in fiscal year 2028?
A:For fiscal year 2028, Marvell expects a moderation in the rate of CapEx growth but continued robust data center revenue growth. The company anticipates interconnect business to significantly outperform cloud CapEx growth, custom business to at least double year over year, and Ethernet switching business to ramp meaningfully. With the addition of Celestial AI and Ex-con, aggregate revenue from these entities is expected to be around $250 million. Consequently, data center revenue in fiscal 2028 is expected to grow close to 50% year over year.
Q:What are the key trends across Marvell's established data center businesses and newer growth initiatives?
A:Key trends across Marvell's established data center businesses include robust demand for interconnect solutions, with sequential growth across all key product lines such as optical interconnects, custom silicon switching, and storage. In newer growth initiatives, Marvell is focusing on the integration of Celestial AI's photonic fabric (PF) technology, which is expected to enable large scale commercial deployment of CPO for scale-up conductivity starting next year. The company is also seeing strong interest in its AEC and re timer solutions, with design wins secured with major hyperscalers and other customers. Marvell's engineering and operations teams are fully engaged in bringing the benefits of this technology to market.
Q:What is the projected growth for the data center switch revenue in fiscal script and what platforms are driving this growth?
A:The projected growth for data center switch revenue in fiscal script is expected to surpass $700 million. This growth is driven by the 51.2 T platform and the upcoming 100 T platform, which is scheduled to begin sampling in the first half of the fiscal year. These platforms are designed with industry-leading power efficiency and lower latency attributes, critical for AI applications in scale-up switching.
Q:How is the acquisition of Exron expected to impact Marvell's business and future plans?
A:The acquisition of Excon is expected to significantly bolster Marvell's capabilities in addressing rapidly emerging UAL and Ethernet-based opportunities. Excon's Pcle Gen 6 and CXL 3.1 solution, along with their expertise in high-speed interfaces, will enhance Marvell's ability to support customers building next-generation AI platforms. Marvell expects strong growth in both the Pcle and CXL switch markets over the next several years, drawing on Excon's existing customer engagement.
Q:What is the impact of the acquisition on Marvell's custom business, and what are the growth expectations?
A:The impact of the acquisition on Marvell's custom business is significant, as it has scaled from zero revenue to $1.5 billion in fiscal 2026. The custom business is a compelling growth driver for Marvell, having doubled customer revenue year over year in fiscal 2027 and seeing revenue growth of more than 20% year over year. The growth expectations for the custom business include continued growth from existing programs, new xpu attached programs reaching high volume, and a new Tier 1x program ramping into high volume production.
Q:What are the expectations for CXL demand and Marvell's position in the market?
A:CXL demand is accelerating, partly due to tight memory supply. Marvell's custom CXL expanders allow customers to reuse prior generation DRAM with new xpu GPUs and CPUs while supporting near-memory compute operations. A white paper from a leading hyperscaler highlighted near-memory processing as a key opportunity to improve model performance, with Marvell's structure processor being cited as an example of a CXL enabled solution that improves programmability and simplifies system integration.
Q:What are the revenue growth expectations for Marvell in fiscal 2027 and what factors are driving this growth?
A:Marvell's revenue growth expectations for fiscal 2027 are robust, with a forecast for year-over-year growth to accelerate throughout the fiscal year, culminating in a projected fourth-quarter revenue of over $3 billion. Factors driving this growth include continued demand from AI and data center markets, the communications market, and bookings across the entire data center portfolio indicating strong customer demand.
Q:What were the financial results and strategic actions taken by Marvell in fiscal 2026?
A:In fiscal 2026, Marvell generated $2.219 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 26%. GAAP gross margin was 51%, operating margin was 16.1%, and earnings per diluted share was $3.70. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 59.5%, operating margin was 35.3%, earnings per diluted share was $2.84, and there was a significant increase in capital returns to stockholders, totaling $2.245 billion through share repurchases and dividends. Marvell actively engaged in strategic acquisitions and returned capital to shareholders while continuing to execute their capital return program.
Q:What is the projected revenue and financial guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027?
A:For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Marvell is forecasting revenue to be in the range of $2.4 billion, plus or minus 5%. The projected GAAP gross margin is between 51.4% and 52.4%, and the non-GAAP gross margin is between 58.25% and 59.25%. GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $872 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses are anticipated to be approximately $575 million. GAAP other income and expense, including interest on debt, are estimated to be an expense of approximately $51 million, and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an expense of approximately $48 million. The non-GAAP tax rate is projected to be 11%, with basic weighted average shares outstanding of 876 million and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of 883 million. GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of 26 cents to 36 cents, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of 74 cents to 84 cents.
Q:What are the expectations for non GAAP Opex growth across the quarters?
A:The company expects non GAAP Opex to remain flat in the second quarter and then grow in the low to mid single digits on a percentage basis in each of the third and fourth quarters.
Q:How is the company's customer base with the top four US hyperscalers?
A:The company has a strong position with the top four US hyperscalers and the next level, each with a different revenue mix concentration.
Q:What is the significance of custom business in the company's revenue, and what are the future expectations?
A:Custom business, while garnering attention, is a part of the revenue equation but not the entirety. Over time, with 20 plus design wins in production or in the process of being produced across multiple companies, the diversification is expected to improve further.
Q:What impact does the custom business have on the company's revenue growth and outlook?
A:The custom business is contributing to a stronger second half due to program transition and is expected to grow meaningfully into fiscal 28 and 29. The exit run rate for custom is north of $2 billion, indicating strong growth and a positive outlook.
Q:How is the electro-optics business performing and what are the expectations for future growth?
A:The electro-optics business is performing well, showing a growth pattern more like accelerated CapEx growth rather than just CapEx. It is growing at over 50% this year, a momentum that is expected to continue into fiscal 28 and beyond, supported by new product generations and programs.
Q:What is the growth trajectory and confidence level for the custom business in fiscal year 2026?
A:The company feels very confident about the custom business trajectory. For fiscal year 2026 (CY26), the growth is expected to be around 30%, and the confidence level on the timing and growth of the second major custom customer is high.
Q:What is the expected growth for the current fiscal year and next year?
A:The expected growth for the current fiscal year is north of 20%, and next year's growth is expected to be a little bigger than initially thought.
Q:What factors contribute to the confidence in the company's growth projections?
A:Confidence in the growth projections stems from a history of successfully building large-scale custom programs, having executed similar ramps before, understanding the product's key milestones through NPI, detailed discussions and alignment around the manufacturing plan, and having lined up production for the next fiscal year.
Q:What is the impact of recent progress on the company's financial expectations for next year?
A:Recent progress has led to an upward revision in financial expectations for next year, influenced by stronger bookings and detailed supply planning conversations with customers, resulting in a more concrete view of the business's future.
Q:What changes in the company's interconnect business have positively affected financial forecasts?
A:The interconnect business has benefitted from having very firm requirements and a better understanding of the business profile, which was previously conservative. There has been an upward revision in financial forecasts due to this improved understanding, and the company is now seeing the forecast increase, which ripples into next year's projections.
Q:How has the data center market share target been validated?
A:The data center market share target set back in April for calendar 28 has been validated by the company's progress and strong bookings and backlog, showing that they are on track to meet those targets.
Q:What was the initial base for the AEC and RTR growth and what is the potential future contribution?
A:The initial base for AEC and RTR growth was around the 200 million range, and based on current observations, the potential future contribution could be higher, with further growth expected as the market continues to expand.
Q:What strategic considerations are behind the company's investments in AEC and RTR?
A:The company is encouraged by the traction on their products, especially in product leadership, and is investing in AEC and RTR due to their strategic importance and potential for growth. They plan to be an end-to-end provider for their customers, offering a range of solutions from electrical to optical to silicon photonics, which aligns with customer demand for an interconnect partner that can provide a one-stop shop for their needs.
Q:What is the company's outlook on the sustainability of their position in the market and future revenue targets?
A:The company feels very good about its position and the sustainability of that, due to deep engagements with customers and the multi-generational nature of the technology pace. They expect to hit the previously talked-about revenue targets and plan to grow beyond that in the coming years.
Q:What are the current and projected market sizes and growth rates for the xPU attach market?
A:The xPU attach market is projected to reach about 15 billion in calendar year 2028 with a total market share goal of about 20%. The company is currently in the range of a couple hundred million, expecting to double over the next year and potentially reach a billion-dollar type business by the following year.
Q:Can the company provide an update on the electronic business, specifically the mix of products for the upcoming fiscal year?
A:The company has been saying that 800 will be stronger for a longer period. While they had significant shipments of 1.6 T at the end of the last year and expect a ramp in these shipments, 800 will still be the majority. However, they are unable to provide an exact breakout at this moment due to the dynamic nature of the bookings and demand environment.
Q:What challenges does the company face in the supply chain, and how have they managed growth despite these challenges?
A:The company faces challenges in the supply chain due to a tight supply environment for AI, advanced wafer fabrication, and large body substrate since the launch of ChatGPT. Despite this, they have managed to grow the company north of 40% in total revenue and are confident they have secured the necessary supply for future growth with the help of their suppliers.
Q:How does the company expect the moving pieces below the top line, such as gross margin mix and investments, to affect their bottom line in the upcoming fiscal year?
A:The company's guidance suggests a revenue of 15 billion and earnings of 5 dollars. The moving pieces, like gross margin mix and investments, should be factored into an income statement to see the impact on the bottom line. The company targets an operating model that could lead to a number above 5 dollars, indicating a positive but not guaranteed outcome.
Q:Can the company discuss the potential integration of Celestial technology into the Notium platform and the timing for such products?
A:The company views the deployment of CPO scale out as relatively limited compared to plugins and transceivers. While not part of the current plan, the company has done pocas and worked on integrations with the Celestial technology and Innovia products. They are prepared to integrate and will be ready to react to the market needs for scale up, with a focus on the first shipments of scale up switching that will be copper-based. The company sees significant interest in CPO for scale up and plans to start shipping next year, with more deployments in the following years, including copper-based solutions.

Marvell Technology, Inc.
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