达美乐比萨 (DPZ.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

Domino's highlights exceptional financial performance, strategic advancements, and market expansion. Key achievements include increased market share, same-store sales growth, and franchisee profitability. Initiatives like Parmesan Stuffed Crust and the Best Deal Ever promotion have bolstered sales. Technological improvements and expanded delivery partnerships enhance efficiency. Despite challenges, Domino's forecasts continued growth, focusing on optimizing store splits, expanding in the U.S., and accelerating international presence, particularly in India and China. Guidance for 2026 includes modest pricing hikes and steady same-store sales growth, underlining confidence in sustainable success.

会议速览

Domino's Pizza Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights and Q&A Session Overview

Domino's Pizza's Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings conference call was announced, featuring a presentation from the CEO followed by the CFO, with a Q&A session open to participants. Forward-looking statements were noted, and non-GAAP financial measures were discussed, adhering to SEC filings and available on their IR website for further details.

Domino's Dominance in QSR Pizza: Doubling Retail Sales and Capitalizing on Market Growth

Discusses Domino's strong position in the QSR Pizza category, projecting continued growth and potential to double retail sales by leveraging market advantages and the success of their 'Hungry for More' strategy.

Domino's Dominates in 2025: Record Sales, Store Growth, and Market Share Gains

Domino's delivered outstanding results in 2025, achieving robust sales growth in both carryout and delivery, impressive net store openings, and significant market share gains. The company's 'Hungry for More' strategy proved effective, resulting in an 8% increase in operating profits and a record $166,000 per store profitability for US franchisees. International markets, especially China and India, contributed significantly with nearly 600 net store openings. Over the last 11 years, Domino's has gained approximately 11 points of market share, solidifying its position as a leader in the pizza industry.

2025 Strategic Pillars Success: Parmesan Stuffed Crust and Best Deal Ever Drive Growth

Parmesan stuffed crust and Best Deal Ever promotions under strategic pillars delivered exceptional results in 2025, enhancing customer value, taste perceptions, and franchisee profitability. Effective in-store execution and operational excellence ensured sustained success.

Domino's Profit Power: Driving Growth and Value Amidst Challenges

Domino's emphasizes profit power over pricing, demonstrating franchisee profit gains and projecting 3% US comp growth in 2026 despite economic challenges.

Domino's Multifaceted Growth Strategy: Leveraging Long-Term Initiatives and Market Expansion

Domino's outlines its long-term growth strategy, emphasizing successful initiatives like carryout and loyalty programs, upcoming innovations, and international expansion, all aimed at sustained business growth and market leadership.

International Business Strategy Update and DPE Turnaround Efforts

The dialogue discusses the alignment of the international business with previously set goals, emphasizes the importance of the Domino's Pizza Enterprises turnaround, and highlights the strategic focus on continuous improvement and value creation for franchisees and shareholders.

Strong Q4 Performance and Growth in Fiscal 2025: Operations, Sales, and Store Expansion

Despite a challenging macro environment, the company achieved a 7.3% increase in income from operations in Q4, driven by franchise royalties and supply chain margins, offset by higher insurance costs. Global retail sales grew 4.9% in Q4 and 5.4% annually, attributed to positive comps and net store growth. Excluding foreign currency impacts, fiscal 2025 saw an 8.1% increase in income from operations, highlighting resilience and strategic success.

Domino's Reports Q4 Sales Growth, Franchisee Profits Rise, International Expansion Continues

Domino's US retail sales grew 5.5% QoQ, driven by same-store sales and net store growth, with franchisee profits hitting $166,000. Internationally, sales increased 4.5%, excluding currency impacts, fueled by 296 net new stores and 0.7% same-store sales. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 15% and repurchased $80 million in shares during Q4.

2026 Financial Guidance: Sales Growth, Store Expansion, and Profit Projections

The dialogue outlines the company's financial guidance for 2026, focusing on global retail sales growth, store expansion plans, and operating profit projections. It highlights expectations for U.S. and international sales, the impact of store openings, and P&L details including food costs, technology fees, and capital expenditures.

Sustaining Growth and Market Share in 2026: Strategies and Industry Trends

The dialogue discusses strategies for maintaining strong performance and gaining market share in 2026, emphasizing continuous innovation, operational efficiency, and leveraging industry growth. It highlights the company's track record of successful product launches, improving franchise economics, and capitalizing on competitors' closures to expand market presence. Industry growth trends and the impact of competitive closures are also analyzed, showcasing the company's readiness to seize opportunities for further market share gains.

Analyzing US Sales Outlook: Contributions from Existing Initiatives vs. New Developments

A detailed discussion on the US sales growth, emphasizing the balance between the impact of ongoing initiatives and emerging strategies for future performance.

Addressing Weather Impact and Highlighting Growth Initiatives in Same Store Sales

Discussed the impact of weather on January sales, emphasizing the resilience of the business over the year. Highlighted successful initiatives including partnerships with DoorDash and Best Deliver, significant growth in carryout sales surpassing competitors, and the success of the loyalty program. Outlined future plans leveraging four pillars to achieve a 3% same store sales growth target.

Sustainability of Delivery and Same Store Sales Growth Post-Promotional Intensity

Reflects on Q4 performance with high promotional spending and DoorDash impact, questioning long-term delivery growth sustainability and future outlook.

Strategies for Incremental Growth in Delivery and Carryout Businesses

The focus is on achieving fair share in delivery through aggregators like Uber and DoorDash, emphasizing slow, responsible growth. Success in digital media and marketplaces is attributed to expertise and investment. Carryout business is highlighted as larger than delivery, with significant growth potential. Overall, the strategy revolves around incremental growth and optimizing both delivery and carryout services.

Domino's Dominance in Restaurant Growth and Its Impact on Competitors

Discusses Domino's leadership in restaurant growth, emphasizing how their expansion and efficiency in delivery and carryout attract more customers, influencing competitors' performance.

Strategic Vision for Doubling US Retail Sales and Market Share Expansion

The dialogue highlights a strategic goal to double US retail sales over time, emphasizing continuous market share growth and competitive positioning. It outlines confidence in future growth despite macroeconomic challenges, referencing past achievements and aspirations to match leading players in the industry. The discussion also touches on adjusting unit opportunities in light of the current competitive landscape.

Expanding Retail Sales and Store Opportunities Beyond 2028

Guidance emphasizes reaching double retail sales of approximately 10 billion, with a focus on new store openings increasing consumer touchpoints. The strategy involves leveraging competitive store closures for expansion, underscoring total retail sales growth beyond just same-store sales, and setting progressively higher goals.

Performance Insights and Technological Advancements in QSR Industry

Discussion covers robust growth across income cohorts, consistent delivery and carryout occasion patterns, and significant tech stack updates including improved DOM OS system and real-time order orchestration for enhanced efficiency.

Insurance Costs Impacting Restaurant Margins and Strategies to Offset Pressures

The dialogue discusses the impact of outsized insurance costs on corporate store P and L, emphasizing the need to find productivities to offset these pressures. Despite challenges, franchisee performance remained strong with 3% same-store sales growth, indicating resilience in franchise economics. The focus is on maintaining profitability amidst insurance market pressures.

Profit Growth and Delivery Business Trends in the Restaurant Industry

Discusses enterprise profit growth for franchisees, emphasizing increased profits at both store and enterprise levels. Addresses delivery business trends, noting the industry shift towards three-party (3P) delivery while acknowledging potential for one-party (1P) growth post-stabilization. Highlights pricing discipline among franchisees contributing to profit power and overall business resilience.

Strategies for Expanding US Store System and Managing Same-Store Sales Quality

The dialogue discusses the potential for doubling the US market opportunity, reaching 7700 stores by 2018, and possibly 8500 stores. It highlights the importance of maintaining fair prices and franchisee execution for customer loyalty. The conversation also addresses the impact of new store sales on existing stores and strategies to minimize negative effects on overall market performance.

Balancing Store Growth and Franchisee Profitability for Sustainable Expansion

The dialogue emphasizes the importance of balancing aggressive store openings with careful management of closures to protect franchisee profitability. It highlights the strategic approach to growth, ensuring that the pace of expansion does not compromise the financial health of franchisees, thereby fostering a win-win partnership for sustainable business growth.

International Expansion and Risk Management in Store Growth Pipeline

Discussion centers on the feasibility of achieving 800 new stores this year, emphasizing contributions from India and China, post-Dpe closure recovery, and strategies to return to the growth algorithm, including addressing same-store sales and enhancing collaboration for sustained expansion.

International Business Growth, Australia Market Focus, and GLP1 Impact on Sales

The dialogue discusses strategies for international business growth, emphasizing the importance of the Australian market and clarifying guidance expectations. It touches on menu pricing assumptions for 2026 sales growth and the potential impact of GLP1 medications on the business, noting current minimal effects.

要点回答

Q：What is the projected growth for the QSR pizza category in 2026 and beyond?

A：The QSR pizza category is projected to continue growing at a historical rate of 1 to 2% per year, with the speaker from Domino's being confident about the category's growth in 2026 and beyond.

Q：How does Domino's view its market share and growth potential compared to competitors?

A：Domino's views its market share as a key area of focus and believes there is significant opportunity for growth. While acknowledging its current market share, the company believes it can double its retail sales from the current levels and has already achieved this higher market share in some international markets. Domino's holds the number one position in net store growth in the US and has gained market share over the last 11 years.

Q：What are the key achievements of Domino's Pizza in 2025 despite a challenging macro environment?

A：Despite a challenging macro environment, Domino's Pizza achieved sales growth in both its carryout and delivery businesses, positive order counts in the US and international businesses, global net store growth in line with expectations, and a 3% same store sales growth in the US. Additionally, the company grew company operating profits by more than 8% and franchisee per store profitability significantly.

Q：What were the key initiatives that drove Domino's results in 2025?

A：The key initiatives that drove Domino's results in 2025 were from its 'most delicious food' pillar with the launch of Parmesan stuffed crust, and the ' renowned value' pillar with the 'Best deal ever' promotion. Both initiatives are expected to continue positively impacting the company's results in 2026 and beyond.

Q：How did Domino's maintain profit power while offering value to consumers?

A：Domino's maintained profit power by successfully offering value to consumers while creating profit gains for franchisees. The company's ability to deliver value without sacrificing profitability is considered more significant than traditional pricing power.

Q：What is the outlook for Domino's US comparable sales in 2026?

A：The outlook for Domino's US comparable sales in 2026 is a projected 3% growth, despite an expectation of a challenging macro environment.

Q：What is the long-term growth strategy for the US carryout business?

A：The long-term growth strategy for the US carryout business involves leveraging the company's proven track record of commitment to building the carryout business, with initiatives that have multiple years of growth ahead. Since launching the initiative in 2010, the carryout business has grown an average of 10% annually and is projected to continue contributing to meaningful growth.

Q：What is the growth trajectory of Domino's loyalty program?

A：The growth trajectory of Domino's loyalty program is positive, with the program finishing 2025 with 37.3 million active users, which is up almost 20% since its relaunch. This indicates a strong and growing customer base that benefits the company's overall results.

Q：What are the strategies for future product offerings and consumer engagement?

A：The strategies involve evolving product offerings to meet consumer demands and preferences through menu innovations, continuing to drive renowned value initiatives, and focusing on developing new ideas that will grow the business.

Q：What is the anticipated growth in 2026 from aggregator platforms and what enhancements are being made to support this growth?

A：The company expects continued growth on aggregator platforms, especially on DoorDash where they were not fully rolled out until mid-year 2025. They anticipate their share on DoorDash to grow with increased awareness and marketing spend. Enhancements include the new eeco Merce platform and a brand refresh that has given the brand a unique look, sound, and heartbeat.

Q：What are the scale advantages that the company expects to continue and how do they plan to grow in 2026?

A：The company's scale advantages, such as best-in-class franchisee economics, the largest advertising budget, and a supply chain with incredible purchasing power, are expected to continue as differentiators. They anticipate franchisee store level EBITDA to grow in 2026, and expect another year of same store sales growth in international business with an acceleration in net store growth.

Q：What progress is being made with the turnaround of the international business and who is the new CEO?

A：The company's international business has tracked in line with the goal set forth at their Investor Day in late 2023. The Dpe business is being closely worked on to turn it around, and there is encouragement from the hiring of Andrew Gregory as the new CEO, who brings extensive QSR experience.

Q：What is the focus of the company's strategy and how does it drive results and value creation?

A：The company's strategy focuses on strengthening the business daily, building for the present and the future, and creating their own tailwinds to drive growth and best-in-class results. This approach contributes to long-term value creation for franchisees and shareholders.

Q：What were the Q4 and fiscal 2025 results for the company, and what initiatives contributed to these outcomes?

A：Q4 results saw income from operations increase 7.3% excluding foreign currency impact, primarily due to high U.S. franchise royalties and fees and gross margin dollar growth within the supply chain. Global retail sales grew 4.9% in the quarter and 5.4% for the year. The U.S. same store sales grew 3.7% with initiatives like the 'Bestie Lever' promotion and the launch of a new specialty pizza. The company continued to manage the aggregator business to maximize sales and profits for Domino's and franchisees. International same store sales grew 0.7% despite challenges.

Q：What was the net new store count for the quarter and the full year, and how did this affect the U.S. system store count?

A：During the quarter, the company added 96 net new stores, and for the full year, they added 172 stores, bringing the U.S. system store count to 7,186.

Q：What is the company's guidance for 2026, and what is the estimated impact of the 53rd week?

A：The company believes global retail sales growth in 2026 should be approximately 6%, with U.S. same store sales growth of 3%. For international markets, the same store sales are expected to be 1% to 2%. The guidance reflects the impact of not having a 53rd week in the year, estimated to affect global retail sales and operating profit growth.

Q：What are the significant initiatives and partnerships mentioned that have contributed to the company's growth?

A：The company's growth was contributed to by several key initiatives and partnerships, including a collaboration with DoorDash, the introduction of the loyalty program, and the Best Delivers program. These have all been significant car drivers in the business and are expected to compound over time.

Q：How has the carry-on business performed and what role has the loyalty program played?

A：The carry-on business has experienced significant growth, increasing by 5.6% following substantial growth the previous year. The loyalty program, which was designed with a focus on the carryout customer and attracting light users, has seen an impressive 20% rise in the number of customers, thus acting as an effective accelerator for the carryout business.

Q：What is the company's strategy regarding delivery business growth and what are the expectations for future performance?

A：The company's strategy for the delivery business growth is focused on reaching a fair share in the market, which is estimated to be about one out of every three deliveries. The management is confident in the potential for growth as they are not at their fair share yet. The company is continuing to manage platforms like Uber and DoorDash for incremental growth and is optimistic about the future performance, despite a tough macro backdrop in 2024 and 2025.

Q：What is the company's position regarding same store sales and overall growth?

A：The company's position on same store sales and overall growth is positive. They have outgrown competitors and are number one in growth among restaurants with 3000 stores or above. The growth is attributed to the successful execution of various initiatives, leading to an increase in same store sales and store growth. The company is confident in the delivery business and its ability to gain market share, which has outpaced the industry with a 3% growth in retail sales.

Q：What is the new goal regarding the doubling of U.S. retail sales over time, and how does it reflect on the company's unit opportunity?

A：The new goal mentioned is to double U.S. retail sales over time, which was a concept not previously discussed. While the potential timeframe for achieving this was not specified, it implies that the company may be looking at a longer-term perspective and possibly considering a higher unit opportunity than previously estimated, potentially raising the number of stores above the previous projection of 8500.

Q：What are the company's achievements in market share and plans for growth?

A：The company has gained 1 point of market share per year for the past 11 years, now aiming to compete with the largest players in their respective categories, who have around a 40-50% share. The company plans to leverage its assets, franchisee profitability, and marketing to continue growing and reaching double retail sales of about 10 billion over time.

Q：What is the company's guidance for store growth and retail sales?

A：The company has guided for reaching 8,500 stores and believes there's an opportunity to achieve double retail sales of about 10 billion. They emphasize the importance of considering total retail sales, which include sales from new stores, to understand the company's performance and potential future success.

Q：How has the company's approach to store growth and competitive dynamics affected its opportunities?

A：The company's strategy of growing and then closing stores in proximity to competitors has created more opportunities for additional stores. This competitive closure dynamic has been beneficial for the company's expansion plans.

Q：What has been the company's performance across income cohorts and in terms of delivery and carryout?

A：The company has grown all income cohorts and has seen consistent results with a low overlap between delivery and carryout orders, around the mid-teens. There has been no change in this trend, indicating that these are distinct customer occasions.

Q：Can the company provide an update on technological advancements and future plans?

A：The company had a big year for technology, focusing on consumer and store e-commerce sites and applications, with the new site performing better than the old one. The focus for apps includes bettering the consumer and store experience, and the store operations system (DOM OS) continues to improve. The company is also enhancing its ability to make products before consumers finish ordering, with technology that looks ahead of the order and has smart dispatch. This technology will now allow for better coordination between the order front end and the dispatch back end, potentially holding orders to ensure timely delivery.

Q：What is the impact of insurance costs on restaurant-level margins and what is the outlook for sustainability?

A：Insurance costs impacted the corporate store's profitability significantly but did not affect franchisee performance, which grew at the same rate as the company's same store sales. Franchisees managed to maintain profitability despite the insurance pressures. The company is conscious of the insurance cost pressure in the market and acknowledges its impact while also highlighting measures taken to offset these pressures, such as finding productivity improvements. The company's ability to grow despite such pressures suggests a sustainable outlook.

Q：What are the average number of stores per franchisee and the enterprise profit for franchisees?

A：The average number of stores per franchisee was 9, with the enterprise profit for franchisees approaching 1.5 million dollars.

Q：What is the current trend in the delivery business in the restaurant industry?

A：The current trend in the delivery business within the restaurant industry is a shift towards three pieces versus one piece, with widespread growth seen across the industry. Traditional one-pizza delivery businesses have been steady or mostly declined, and it's noted that growth now predominantly occurs on delivery aggregators rather than directly with restaurants.

Q：What is the projected growth for the delivery business post-COVID?

A：It is projected that once the delivery business stabilizes and normalizes after fully adopting three pieces, there should be growth both in three pieces as well as one piece.

Q：How has the franchisee pricing strategy contributed to profit growth?

A：The franchisee pricing strategy has been flat, which has allowed for profit growth. The franchisees have shown discipline, which has been beneficial. Franchisees are able to drive incremental profits due to this pricing strategy.

Q：What is the significance of same store sales and how do they relate to future growth?

A：The quality of same store sales, being order count driven rather than ticket driven, signifies the opportunity for future growth. It indicates a strong repeat customer base, driven by fair prices and franchisee execution.

Q：What is the path to and potential for increasing the number of US system stores?

A：The path to increasing the number of US system stores involves learning from competitor softness and potentially accelerating store openings. The goal is to maintain an aggressive stance without creating a net loss in store numbers. Closure rates are a key focus, with plans to ensure new stores stay open and to work with franchisees for mutual benefit.

Q：How does the company measure the impact of new store openings on existing stores?

A：The impact of new store openings on existing stores is measured by looking at store closures, with the priority being to keep stores open and grow profitably. The company aims to be aggressive in store growth while protecting franchisee profitability.

Q：What visibility does the company have on international development and potential risks for the year?

A：The company has visibility into its international development pipeline, with plans to add 800 units this year despite challenges from DP. Risks include ensuring DPE's return to being a net contributor, but India and China are expected to accelerate and contribute to the 800 store target. The closure of DPE locations is behind us, and the focus is on growth and protecting franchisee profitability.

Q：What is the guidance regarding menu pricing and its impact on same store sales?

A：The company expects low single-digit pricing growth for 2026, which is embedded in the 3% same store sales guidance. There has been no impact from menu pricing on the business so far, and the company will continue to monitor the situation, considering the nature of its products and potential menu innovation if needed.

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