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起司工坊 (CAKE.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated reported strong Q4 2025 results with stable revenue and profitability, achieving record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million. The company opened 25 new restaurants, with plans for 26 more in 2026. Despite a slight decline in comparable sales for Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia and Flower Child performed well. Menu innovations, a dedicated rewards app launch, and disciplined capital allocation are key strategies for growth. Commodity inflation and labor costs are expected to be manageable, supporting margin expansion and shareholder value creation.
会议速览
Cheesecake Factory Reports Solid Q4 2025 Earnings, Highlights Resilience Amid Challenging Environment
Cheesecake Factory closes fiscal year 2025 with stable revenue and profitability growth. Despite industry challenges, including weather impacts, the company achieved year-over-year improvements in labor productivity and wages, delivering strong sales growth across core concepts. Record annual revenue and earnings per share were driven by consistent operational execution, resulting in increased restaurant-level profit margins. The company expresses pride in team performance and resilience amid a dynamic macro backdrop.
Strong Culinary Innovation, Unit Growth, and Capital Allocation Strategies Highlight Business Strength
The company emphasizes culinary innovation, successfully introduces new menu items, and maintains strong unit growth with 25 openings in 2025, projecting 26 for 2026. Capital allocation includes share repurchase increases and dividend raises, reflecting confidence in business consistency and international expansion plans.
Operational Excellence Drives Guest Satisfaction and Staff Retention
Strong leadership and disciplined execution led to improved guest satisfaction and staff retention, reinforcing core operational standards for consistent hospitality.
Menu Innovations Drive Growth: Appetizer Engagement and Cheesecake Rewards Enhance Guest Experience
Recent menu updates have led to increased appetizer attachment rates and improved entree ordering, while cheesecake rewards have bolstered membership and engagement, showcasing a commitment to enhancing guest experience through culinary and programmatic innovation.
Expanding Capabilities, Launching Rewards App to Enhance Guest Experience and Address Sales Trends
Confidence in program trajectory leads to the launch of a dedicated rewards app for improved guest engagement. Despite industry sales deceleration, the cheesecake factory shows relative stability, supported by off-premise sales mix improvements.
Q4 Financials and Growth Highlights for North Italia and Flower Child Brands
Despite a 4% decline in comparable sales, North Italia and Flower Child brands showed resilience with strong new restaurant openings and high retention rates. North Italia achieved an annualized AUV of over $7.6 million, while Flower Child outpaced the fast casual segment with a 4% comp sales increase. Both brands maintained solid restaurant-level profit margins, reinforcing confidence in their market demand and long-term objectives.
Q4 Financial Review Highlights: Revenue Growth, Earnings, and Shareholder Returns
Q4 revenues reached $961.6 million, with $17.3 million from gift card breakage. Excluding this, revenues were $944.3 million. Adjusted net income and diluted earnings per share were strong, with $24 million returned to shareholders. Total revenues for the year were $3.75 billion, up from the prior year, with adjusted diluted earnings per share increasing 10% to $3.77 and adjusted EBITDA totaling $354 million. More than $206 million was returned to shareholders in dividends and stock repurchases. Sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $681.4 million, up 2%, with North Italia sales up 8%, and Flower Child sales up 19%.
Financial Review and Forward Outlook: Revenue Trends, Expense Management, and Growth Projections
A detailed financial analysis covers year-over-year expense variances, revenue impacts from gift card breakage, and cost-saving measures. The outlook anticipates total revenues of $3.9 billion for fiscal 2026, with low to mid-single-digit inflation across commodities, labor, and operating expenses. Plans include opening 26 new restaurants, primarily in the second half, with $210 million in CapEx for development and maintenance, aiming for sustained growth and improved net income margins.
Record EBITDA and Growth Focus Highlighted in Financial Review
The company achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million, emphasizing financial stability and growth. The future strategy includes comparable sales growth, margin expansion, and shareholder value creation.
Update on FRC Management and Business Performance
Discussed FRC's successful acquisition, strong business unit performance, and ongoing collaboration with the management team to enhance operations and innovate. Plans include leveraging scale and expertise for added value.
Exploring Value-Driven Menu Strategies and Same-Store Sales Impact
Discussion revolves around leveraging menu innovations, like Bittesby Bowls, to enhance perceived value and customer engagement. It also touches on North Italia's same-store sales dynamics, highlighting recovery from cannibalization effects and positive trends in incident rates reflecting successful menu strategies.
Impact of Weather on Q3 Sales and Customer Preferences at Cheesecake Factory
A company discusses the negative impact of weather on Q3 sales, estimating a net loss due to inclement conditions, including record restaurant closures. They highlight customer preference for diverse menu items, particularly bites and bowls, noting no single item dominates popularity.
Analysis of Consumer Spending Trends and Industry Performance
Discussion on the impact of weather and economic factors on consumer spending, with an emphasis on industry trends and future outlook. The dialogue suggests a temporary slowdown affecting certain quarters, with expectations for steady performance continuing through the year.
Analyzing Cheesecake Sales: Mix Impact and Future Trends
The dialogue discusses the impact of mix on cheesecake sales, noting a negative trend in the quarter due to lower check sizes from new menu items. However, there's optimism for a reduced negative mix impact as the year progresses, driven by increased ordering rates and the full experience of the cheesecake, including beverages. The analysis suggests a cautious outlook on mix for the upcoming year, balancing new offerings with customer engagement strategies.
Tax Refunds vs. Restaurant Demand: A Lack of Correlation
Discussion reveals skepticism about tax refunds boosting restaurant demand, emphasizing execution and menu innovation as key growth drivers. No pronounced impact observed, nor correlation with gas prices noted.
Analysis of Restaurant Margins, Menu Pricing Strategies, and Future Closures
Discussion covers restaurant margin assumptions, menu pricing strategies focusing on value, and confirmation of no anticipated closures for the remainder of the year. Guidance includes stable margins with slight improvements, effective pricing below industry levels, and no expected closures post-anticipated actions.
Analysis of Regional Business Performance Amid Weather Variability
Despite varied weather impacts, overall business performance remains predictable and within expected ranges, with all regions showing strong performance. Specific regional trends are obscured by weather and holiday schedules, but no significant issues are noted.
Strategies for North Business Unit: Comp Analysis, Cannibalization, and Market Expansion
The dialogue focuses on the North business unit's compensation strategy, considering the impacts of cannibalization and market dynamics. It discusses evaluating new unit openings, menu and bar innovation, and stabilizing performance. The approach aims to align with industry standards, emphasizing lunch offerings and bar relevance, while modeling assumes pre-cannibalization performance levels.
Q2 Launch of Rewards App with Strong Marketing Push
Plans to launch a dedicated Rewards app in Q2, featuring a strong social media presence, attractive download offers, and targeted restaurant promotions.
Analysis of Regional Sales Trends Post-Government Shutdowns and Q2 25 Sales Projections
The dialogue discusses the stabilization of sales performance post-government shutdowns, with regional trends being observed. It also delves into the calculation of same-store sales for Q2 25, which is projected to be around plus 1%, with MP contributing to this figure.
Anticipated Impact of Rewards App on Visit Frequency and Guest Experience
Discussion focused on the expected benefits of a rewards app, emphasizing improved guest experience through easier reservation access and order history tracking, with plans to share performance metrics in future updates.
Flower Child's Growth Strategy: Balancing Standardization and Customization for Accelerated Expansion
Flower Child has shown strong performance and guest satisfaction, allowing for expansion. Key to future growth is maintaining consistent brand execution through right staffing, especially leadership roles. While some customization is needed for different locations, the focus remains on standardization for scalability, with plans to potentially increase the development pace if the necessary resources are secured.
Analysis of Mix Pressure and Product Pricing Impact on Sales Trends
A discussion confirms that the majority of mix pressure in the fourth quarter stemmed from pricing differences of new products, with alcohol and dessert categories remaining stable. Anticipations for 2026 indicate similar trends, where pricing impacts are offset by increased order rates, stabilizing overall sales.
Cheesecake Factory Discusses Pricing Strategy and Delivery Mix with DoorDash
Discusses maintaining current pricing strategy with DoorDash, emphasizing no extra charges compared to in-restaurant prices, and outlines the consistent delivery mix with 10% being delivery, alongside online orders and phone pickups. All brands under the agreement are part of DoorDash's partnership.
Cheesecake Factory Expansion and Financial Performance Update
The dialogue covers the Cheesecake Factory's plans to open 26 new units, with a focus on site flexibility and average unit economics. It also discusses commodity inflation expectations, margin outlook, and the performance components of North Italia for the fourth quarter.
要点回答
Q:What year-end results and growth did The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated achieve?
A:The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated achieved year-end results with strong sales growth across core concepts, the most new restaurant openings in a single year, supporting record annual revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share. The operator's consistent execution drove meaningful profitability growth, with the adjusted restaurant level profit margin at The Cheesecake Factory increasing 60 basis points year over year to 17.6%. The company also opened 25 new restaurants in 2025, delivering approximately 7% unit growth.
Q:What are the details of the new menu items and restaurant openings?
A:The Cheesecake Factory introduced new menu items across various categories and price points, which have resonated well with guests. In the fourth quarter, the company opened two Cheesecake Factory restaurants, three North Italia locations, and three FRC restaurants. Subsequent to the quarter, one flower child restaurant was opened and four restaurants were closed, including two Cheesecake Factory restaurants, one Grand Lux Cafe, and one FRC restaurant. A total of seven new restaurants were opened in the fourth quarter.
Q:What is the company's outlook for 2026 in terms of restaurant openings?
A:The company expects to open as many as 26 restaurants in 2026, supported by a strong development pipeline and confidence in the strength and consistency of the business model.
Q:What operational and guest satisfaction improvements were reported?
A:Operational leadership and disciplined execution drove meaningful performance improvements, including continued gains in overall guest satisfaction. This progress was supported by a strong staffing position and advancements in industry-leading retention for both hourly staff and management. Stability in staffing enabled operators to reinforce core operational standards, leading to exceptional hospitality that guests have come to expect.
Q:What are the trends in the menu rollout and customer engagement?
A:The menu rollout has been well received, with encouraging results such as year-over-year growth in appetizer attachment rates and improved entree ordering patterns. The Cheesecake Factory rewards program has seen meaningful progress, including strong membership growth and improved engagement. The company is leveraging expanded capabilities to refine offers and deepen member engagement, with plans to launch a dedicated rewards app to enhance the guest experience and provide better insights into member behavior.
Q:How did sales trends and comparable sales figures perform in the fourth quarter?
A:Sales decelerated in the fourth quarter, as reflected by the Black Box Casual Dining Index, with a sequential decline in the fourth quarter compared to the third. The Cheesecake Factory's comparable sales were negative, down from the third quarter, but demonstrated relative stability compared to the industry's decline. Adjusted annualized AUV was $12.2 million for the quarter, supported by an off-premise sales mix. North Italia's fourth quarter annualized AUV was $7.6 million, with comparable sales declining 4%, reflecting industry sales trends and pressure from recently opened restaurants and the impact of the Los Angeles fires. The company's focus on operational execution and investing in staff retention helped maintain confidence in the ability to compete effectively in a challenging environment.
Q:What were the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year in terms of revenue and adjusted net income margin?
A:For the fourth quarter, total revenues were $961.6 million with $17.3 million of gift card breakage revenue, adjusted net income margin was ly, ly, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was 1 dollar. For the full year, total revenues were $3.75 billion, adjusted diluted earnings per year increased 10% year over year to 3 dollars and 77 cents, and adjusted EBITDA was $354 million, with more than $206 million returned to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases.
Q:What was the performance of specific restaurant concepts in the fourth quarter?
A:In the fourth quarter, total sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $681.4 million, up 2% from the prior year, and sales per operating week were $139100. Sales for North Italia were $88.2 million, up 8% from the prior year period. FRC sales totaled $99.4 million, up 17% from the prior year, and flower child sales were $45.5 million, up 19% from the prior year, with sales per operating week at $83400. External bakery sales were $17.2 million.
Q:What is the outlook for comparable sales and earnings in the upcoming quarter and full year?
A:While specific comparable sales and earnings guidance is not provided, the company expects total revenues between $955 and $970 million for the upcoming quarter, factoring in weather-related restaurant closures and a lower sales trend in the current consumer environment. For the full year, the company anticipates total revenues of approximately $3.9 billion, with total inflation across the commodity basket, labor, and other operating expenses in the low to mid single digits. Adjusted net income margin is expected to be about Ed at the midpoint of the sales range provided.
Q:What were the major expense variances and how did the company manage labor costs?
A:Cost of sales decreased by ly basis points primarily due to the gift card breakage benefit, with the remainder attributable to favorable commodity costs and mix shift. Labor as a percent of sales declined script basis points, with the gift card breakage benefit accounting for ly basis points. Other operating expenses declined ed basis points, with the majority of variance due to the gift card breakage benefit, offset by timing of marketing spend. Gna as a percent of sales increased 70 basis points, mainly driven by the write down of gift card inventory.
Q:How did the company's balance sheet and capital allocation look at the end of the quarter?
A:The company ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $582.2 million, including a cash balance of $215.7 million and $366.5 million available on a revolving credit facility. The total principal amount of debt outstanding was $644 million, and CapEx for the fourth quarter was approximately $25 million for new unit development and maintenance. The company also completed approximately $11.2 million in share repurchases and returned $128.800 million to shareholders via dividends.
Q:How does the company expect commodity inflation and labor costs to impact their financials in the upcoming fiscal year?
A:The company expects effective commodity inflation of low single digits, with a stable broad market basket. They are modeling net total labor inflation of low to mid single digits, factoring in the latest trends and wage rates, minimum wage increases, and other components of labor. Gna is estimated to be approximately $63 million to $64 million, and depreciation is estimated to be about $28 million.
Q:What is the projected total revenue and net income margin for fiscal 2026?
A:The company projects total revenues for fiscal 2026 to be approximately $3.9 billion at the midpoint of their sensitivity modeling. They estimate a full year net income margin to be approximately Ed at the sales estimate provided, with total inflation across the commodity basket, labor, and other operating expenses in the low to mid single digit range.
Q:How many new restaurants does the company plan to open in 2026, and what is the anticipated CapEx for unit development?
A:The company plans to continue accelerating unit growth in 2026, expecting to open as many as 26 new restaurants, with roughly three quarters of those openings planned for the second half of the year. Of these, they would anticipate approximately $210 million in cash CapEx to support unit development and restaurant maintenance.
Q:What are the updates on the go-forward structure for FRC and management team changes?
A:The company is very pleased with the overall performance of the business unit, with all lines of business meeting or exceeding expectations. A person from cheesecake has been working with the team in C and operations are going excellently. The company will continue to look at opportunities to add benefits via scale or expertise and will continue to innovate and incubate.
Q:What are the plans for the bittesby bowls menu items?
A:The bittesby bowls have been well-received, and they were rolled out with a heightened sense of awareness, featuring them on a separate menu cart and marketing them through social channels. The company has seen great awareness and attachment rates due to the value they provide. The company is planning to continue rolling out the menu, possibly integrating new items into the main menu.
Q:What is the same store sales impact from North Italia and how is the day part mix behaving?
A:North Italia's same store sales have been impacted, with the sales transfer being approximately the same magnitude as the previous quarter. There's a weakness in lunch, which is a consistent trend in the fourth quarter. However, there is positive news as the comp is recovering, indicating that the cannibalization of the fire is not as impactful as initially feared.
Q:How much did weather impact the current quarter's results and was it factored into guidance?
A:Weather had a negative net impact on the quarter, with the company experiencing record restaurant closures. About 120 restaurants were closed on the peak day. The impact is reflected in the guidance provided by the company, which assumes no further weather impact.
Q:What is the customer response to the evolving menu items?
A:Customers have widely popularized all menu items, with no single item being overwhelmingly preferred. A couple of bowls and all the bites have performed very well, showcasing the large menu variety that customers enjoy at the Cheesecake Factory.
Q:Has there been any fundamental change in the consumer spending backdrop, and what is the reason for recent industry trends?
A:The company has observed a slowdown in industry trends and volatility in the consumer spending backdrop due to weather and other factors. The recent changes in consumer trends are not fundamentally different; they are influenced by external factors such as weather impact and shifts in consumer behavior.
Q:What is the expected impact of menu rollouts on transaction mix in the upcoming fiscal year?
A:The expected impact of the menu rollouts, specifically the 'bites' at lower check sizes, is to drive transactions. Although there was a negative mix in Q4, with new menu items just rolled out in early September, it is anticipated that the negative mix will continue to improve at a lesser rate as the year progresses. The guide indicates a negative one for the year on a mix perspective.
Q:Does the company expect any significant benefit from tax refunds, and how does it view its performance?
A:The company does not count on getting any benefits from tax refunds. Their performance is attributed to their execution, menu innovation, and other initiatives they are undertaking. There is no pronounced correlation to tax refunds or external factors like gas prices in their performance.
Q:What are the assumptions for restaurant margins for the upcoming year?
A:The company's guidance for restaurant levels shows an expectation of a slight pressure in G&A (General and Administrative expenses) due to specific accounting items, but overall, the ly basis points of Ed Wall margin is expected for the restaurant levels. The full-year outlook is positive, with a clean outlook and a slight improvement expected for the year.
Q:What is the expected pricing strategy for the company's menu items, particularly cheesecake?
A:The company's menu pricing strategy for this year will focus on value, with an expectation to bring down prices. For instance, the running price for cheesecake is in the 3.5 to 4% range. The plan is to manage mix and price to maintain prices well below the industry level, aided by lower inflation costs and improved sales trends. This is expected to be an achievable level based on current market conditions and consumer behavior.
Q:What has been the impact of weather on business performance?
A:The overall business performance has been predictable despite more weather impacts than usual. The business is in the range expected, with the company feeling good about the guidance provided.
Q:What is the focus at North regarding menu innovation and other operational aspects?
A:At North, the focus is on menu innovation, particularly in the lunch day part, and continued bar innovation. There has been a positive trend in bar incident rates and the company aims to make North more stable and in line with the rest of the industry.
Q:What is the anticipated timeline for launching the dedicated Rewards app?
A:The goal is to launch the dedicated Rewards app in the second quarter, with a strong social media presence planned for the launch.
Q:Has the impact of the government shutdowns normalized by the end of the last quarter?
A:Yes, the company has seen stable performance across the portfolio again after the regional trends caused by government shutdowns, despite weather variations.
Q:What was the implied script for same store sales in Q2 according to the referenced data?
A:The same store sales for Q2 were implied to be roughly plus 1%.
Q:How impactful could the new rewards app be to visit frequency and other metrics?
A:The company aims to make the guest experience seamless and provide value but will not share finer details. The focus is on making it easy for guests to access reservations and view order history. Impact metrics will be shared if and when the information is available.
Q:What has the company learned about the formats and locations that work best for the flower child brand?
A:The company is enthusiastic about the performance of the flower child brand in new and existing markets, with strong reception even in new locations. The brand is on-trend, healthy, and offers a unique dining experience. Operations systems have been put in place for consistent execution, and the guest experience has received very positive reviews. While there is a potential for faster development, the company wants to ensure the right leadership and staff are in place to maintain brand standards.
Q:What factors have contributed to the menu pressure in the quarter?
A:Menu pressure has been contributed to by alcohol and dessert stabilization, indicating that the pricing differential of new products is a significant factor. However, exact numbers were not provided during the transcript.
Q:What is the anticipated impact of the new product pricing on the restaurant's sales and order rates?
A:The anticipated impact suggests that despite new product pricing, the offset from increased order rates will neutralize some of the pricing impact.
Q:What is the current delivery mix for the restaurant's off-premise sales?
A:The current off-premise sales mix for the restaurant is approximately 20% for delivery, 10% for the restaurant, and the rest is split evenly between online ordering and phone pickup.
Q:Can the partnership with DoorDash be extended to other brands owned by the company?
A:Yes, all the concepts owned by the company are already covered under the DoorDash agreement.
Q:How many new Cheesecake Factory units does the company plan to open, and what is the size range of these units?
A:The company plans to open up to 6 new Cheesecake Factory units, with the size range varying from 6500 to 10000 square feet, with an average size of about 7700 square feet for the 6 units.
Q:What are the sales and margin results for the Cheesecake Factory units?
A:The new units have generated sales at effectively the average a.u.s.b. (average sales per square foot) margins, and the company has been sitting right between the 8% and 9% cash on cash return targets.
Q:What is the expected rate of commodity inflation for the upcoming year?
A:The expected rate of commodity inflation for the upcoming year is about 2.5 percent and is expected to be steady throughout the year.
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