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eBay (EBAY.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
eBay reported a 6% global GMV growth to $80 billion in Q4 2025, driven by strategic priorities and AI innovations. The company's revenue increased by 7% to $11.1 billion, and it announced the acquisition of Depop for $1.2 billion to bolster its C2C and fashion marketplaces. eBay also highlighted AI-driven features like magical listings and generative search, and expects continued growth in 2026, supported by investments in emerging sectors and a strong capital allocation strategy.
会议速览
eBay's Q4 2025 Earnings Call: Guidance on Financials and Future Outlook
The operator, Megan, introduces the call and sets the stage for the discussion. John Eckbert, the VP of investor relations, welcomes participants and outlines the call's structure. He emphasizes the use of non-GAAP measures, forward-looking statements, and risks associated with predictions. The call is set to feature insights from eBay's leadership on Q4 2025 financials and future strategies.
eBay's 2025 Success: GMV Growth, Recommerce Expansion, and Strategic Investments
eBay achieved strong 2025 results with 6% global GMV growth, highlighting recommerce's role in 40% of GMV. Strategic investments in C2C, focus categories, and financial services drove top-line growth and shareholder value, alongside an acquisition to strengthen CDC offerings.
eBay's Q4 Growth Driven by Collectibles, Fashion, and Strategic Acquisitions
eBay's Q4 GMV growth was significantly fueled by the collectibles category, especially trading cards, thanks to AI-powered enhancements and partnerships. Fashion also played a crucial role, bolstered by strategic collaborations and the acquisition of C2C marketplaces like Ties and Depop. Motors and fashion together contributed over one point to GMV growth, showcasing eBay's diversified and expanding marketplace.
Revolutionizing C2C Fashion Marketplace: Acquiring Depop and Advancing eBay Live
Depop, a leading C2C fashion marketplace, is acquired for its fast-growing, socially-driven user base, complementing eBay's global scale. eBay Live sees significant growth, particularly in luxury watches, achieving record GMV on Black Friday. eBay's AI advancements, including the Magical Listing Experience and Genetic Search, enhance seller and buyer experiences, driving efficiency and personalization. Cross-border shipping solutions, like EIS and Speed Pack, streamline international trade, supporting eBay's commitment to expanding its global footprint and addressing the evolving recommerce environment.
eBay's 2025 Impact Goals Surpassed, Focused on Circular Economy and Emerging Growth
eBay surpassed its 2025 impact goals, achieving $25 billion in positive economic impact, preventing 8.2 million metric tons of carbon emissions, and diverting over 360,000 metric tons of waste from landfills. The company accelerated GMB growth by nearly 6%, with strategic priorities driving two-thirds of GMV. eBay plans to scale established priorities and accelerate emerging growth vectors, including secure digital vehicle transactions and eBay Live, while advancing its AI roadmap for hyper-personalized experiences.
Strong Q4 Financial Performance Driven by GMV Growth and Strategic Investments
The company celebrated a robust Q4 with an 8% GMV growth to $21.2 billion, driven by strong performance in focus categories like collectibles and luxury items, particularly in the US. Revenue surged over 13% to $2.96 billion, supported by non-operating income growth and capital returns to shareholders. International markets faced macroeconomic challenges, but the US saw a 19% GMV growth, fueled by enthusiast buyers and emerging sectors.
Q4 Financials Highlight: Revenue Growth, Take Rate Increase, and Advertising Penetration
Generated $2.96B Q4 revenue with 13% organic FX neutral growth, 14% take rate up 60 bps, 1.2B listings promoted, 4.8M sellers adopted promoted listings, first party ads grew 17% to $517M, legacy third party ads declined 41% to $7M, off platform ads $21M.
Q4 Financials, Strategic Investments, and Q1 2026 Outlook
The dialogue discusses Q4 non-GAAP financial results, highlighting gross margin decline due to strategic initiatives and cost efficiencies. It outlines Q1 2026 guidance, projecting GMV and revenue growth, emphasizing advertising contributions and managed shipping accounting changes. Strategic investments in seller and buyer experiences are noted, with expectations for improved program efficiency over time.
2026 Financial Outlook: Growth Strategies, Capital Allocation, and Depo Acquisition
The dialogue outlines a strategic financial plan for 2026, focusing on GMV growth, revenue trends, non-operating income, and capital allocation. It highlights investments in strategic priorities, operational efficiencies, and shareholder returns, including share repurchases and dividends. The pending acquisition of Depo is detailed, with its financial implications and expected closing in Q1, subject to conditions and approvals.
eBay's Strategic Acquisition of Depop: Driving Future Growth and Synergies in Fashion Marketplaces
eBay announces its acquisition of Depop, a fast-growing fashion marketplace, aiming to boost annual GMV by 100-200 basis points and invest in future synergies. Despite short-term dilution in operating income and EPS, eBay anticipates long-term accretion, leveraging AI and innovation to deliver balanced top and bottom line growth, marking a pivotal step in expanding its fashion category leadership.
Analysis of eBay's Q4 Growth Drivers and 2026 Projections
A discussion on eBay's significant Q4 growth, attributing it to years of investment and strategic priorities. The analysis covers core business strengths, emerging growth areas, and guidance for 2026, highlighting the broad-based nature of the company's growth momentum.
International Market Challenges and Strategic Initiatives in Focus
Discusses the differing macroeconomic impacts on US and international markets, highlighting successful initiatives like focus categories and C2C in Europe, while acknowledging lower consumer confidence in Europe.
eBay's Strategic Position in AI-Driven Commerce and Enhanced User Experience
eBay leverages AI technology to enhance user experience, particularly in listings and search functionalities, with high customer satisfaction. The company's unique inventory composition, trust mechanisms, and transactional protections position it well in the evolving agentic AI commerce landscape, capitalizing on investments in AI-driven experiences.
Analysis of 26 Growth Guide and Impact of eBay-Depop Merger on International Markets
The dialogue discusses the growth expectations for 26, addressing the durable and non-durable growth factors, particularly the deceleration of Pokemon and bullion growth, and the impact of the eBay-Depop merger on advancing the fashion segment in international markets, notably UK and Australia.
DePop Acquisition to Supercharge eBay's C2C Strategy and Fashion Growth
The acquisition of DePop is expected to significantly boost eBay's C2C strategy, particularly in the US market, where strong growth in fashion and a younger consumer base align with eBay's strategic focus. This move builds on eBay's existing momentum, with US C2C business growing mid-teens year-over-year in 2025 and fashion GMV increasing by 10%, showcasing the potential for further growth in both marketplaces.
Revenue Synergies and Growth Acceleration Post-DPOC Deal and eBay-Depop Integration
The dialogue discusses the potential revenue synergies from the DPOC deal and the integration of eBay and Depop, emphasizing the opportunity to drive listings across both platforms. It also clarifies the acceleration in growth, noting that the majority of the Q4 to Q1 acceleration was attributed to coins and bullion, but growth remains robust even excluding this impact.
Synergizing Depop Growth with eBay's Resources for Enhanced Fashion Marketplace
Plans to leverage eBay's developed assets, such as authenticity guarantees and payment services, to support Depop's standalone brand growth in fashion, drawing parallels with successful collectibles strategy.
Broad-Based Strength in Precious Metals Demand Continues into Q1
The dialogue highlights the continued acceleration in demand for precious metals, particularly bullion and coins, into Q1, noting broad-based strength in GMV growth that is expected to endure beyond near-term dynamics.
E-Commerce Growth, AI Commerce Evolution, and Capital Allocation Strategies
Discussion on the company's strategies for earnings growth, emphasizing strong non-GAAP operating income growth, targeted share repurchases, and dividends. Highlights the evolution of agentic commerce, particularly AI's role in enhancing marketplace experiences, and the company's balanced approach to capital allocation, focusing on organic investment while returning value to shareholders.
eBay Live's Growth Potential and Facebook Partnership Expansion
Discusses eBay Live's role in driving transactions, attracting new buyers, and enhancing seller trust, highlighting its global scalability. Also covers progress in the Facebook Marketplace partnership, expanding eBay inventory search and categories, benefiting both seller communities and users.
Sustainability of Trail Car Business and Impact of AI on eBay's Website Traffic
The dialogue discusses the growth and sustainability of the trail car business, emphasizing the expansion of the user base and appreciation for non-price factors. It also explores the effects of AI on user behavior, specifically higher conversion rates and product clicks for high-consideration goods when directed from AI search platforms to eBay's website.
Renewed Excitement Drives Broad-Based Growth in Trading Cards and Collectible Card Games
The trading card market is experiencing secular growth, attributed to innovation and renewed consumer interest. Key drivers include broad-based strength across sports and collectible card games, with Pokemon and emerging games like One Piece gaining traction. Growth is fueled by new buyers, higher-priced items, and innovations such as AI card scanning, positioning the company as a leader in the industry.
Revolutionizing eCommerce: High-Intent AI Traffic, Enhanced User Experience, and Unlocking Recommerce Potential
Discusses leveraging AI for high-intent traffic, improving user experience through conversational genetic search, and unlocking recommerce potential by simplifying listings, aiming to convert offline inventory into online sales.
要点回答
Q:What were the highlights of eBay's Q4 2025 financial performance?
A:EBay's Q4 2025 highlights included strong momentum, exceeding expectations with Q4 results, nearly 6% global gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth to approximately $80 billion, and US GMV growing by nearly 10%. Focus category GMV growth accelerated to over 12%, and multiple years of investment in the consumer-to-consumer experience reinvigorated segment growth, which makes up one quarter of total GMV. Additionally, eBay made significant investments in accelerating recommerce, which grew to over 40% of GMV on the platform.
Q:How did eBay's investments in recommerce contribute to its Q4 2025 results?
A:EBay's investments in recommerce during Q4 2025 contributed to the results by increasing the sale of pre-owned and refurbished goods through full funnel marketing, driving awareness and consideration for eBay as a shopping destination. The introduction of innovations like magical listings helped increase the supply of pre-owned goods. Direct recommerce collaborations with iconic brands and strategic inventory expansion in key areas like certified recycled auto parts fueled the circular economy, with recommerce accounting for over 40% of GMV.
Q:What impact did strategic priorities have on eBay's 2025 business?
A:Strategic priorities such as focus categories, C2C, and recommerce comprised two-thirds of eBay's business in 2025, accounting for over $50 billion of GMV. This GMV grew by approximately 10% and accelerated throughout the year, indicating the broad impact of the strategy on overall GMV growth.
Q:How did eBay's revenue and advertising growth contribute to the company's Q4 2025 performance?
A:Revenue increased by nearly 7% to $11.1 billion, outpacing GMV by over one point, primarily driven by a 30% growth in advertising revenue reaching approximately $2 billion in annual revenue. This growth in advertising, alongside improved financial services and partnerships, contributed to eBay's robust Q4 2025 performance.
Q:What was the contribution of the collectibles category to eBay's Q4 2025 results?
A:The collectibles category was a major contributor to GMV growth in Q4, propelled by continued strength in trading cards and other subcategories like bullion and coins. AI-driven innovations, such as a new AI-powered card scanning experience, streamlined the value proposition for collectors. Off-platform marketplaces also contributed to the category's success, with initiatives that enhance the trading card experience and make it easier for enthusiasts to engage with inventory.
Q:How did eBay's new search experience and partnerships contribute to its Q4 2025 results?
A:A new search experience that integrates unique inventory from Goldilocks directly into eBay search results helped address inventory gaps and attract rare high-value items. This innovation, along with the debut of 'King of Collectibles' season 3 on Netflix and partnerships with key brands and influencers, bolstered growth in Q4.
Q:What trends and programs drove the automotive category's performance in Q4 2025?
A:The repair over replace trend among consumers and an extensive inventory of over 800 million live parts and accessories listings drove the automotive category's performance. Enhanced automated fitment capabilities and an easy and free returns program further supported this growth, increasing conversion and maintaining stable return rates.
Q:What were the highlights of eBay's fashion category in Q4 2025?
A:The fashion category's Q4 2025 highlights included generating well north of $10 billion in GMV globally, with a focus on luxury and pre-loved apparel. The company reimagined the selling experience, modernized the shopping journey with AI, and invested in technology to expand the authenticity guarantee program. Initiatives like eBay Live helped build trust and drive sales velocity. Partnerships with cultural events and brands bolstered the fashion offering and contributed to the category's growth.
Q:How did the acquisition of Depop impact eBay's Q4 2025 results and future?
A:The acquisition of Depop, a leading C2C fashion marketplace, extended eBay's reach into the Nordics and aligned with the company's strategic and cultural fit. It offered opportunities for synergies and expanded eBay's addressable market. With Depop's Mobile First social-forward experience and an engaged user base, the acquisition is expected to fuel benefits for users across both platforms, enhance value-added services, and provide a trusted experience. This is anticipated to drive meaningful benefits and support eBay's ongoing growth.
Q:How is eBay Live evolving and what recent achievements have been made?
A:EBay Live is evolving into a multi-screen shopping destination, with rapid growth in the US market and the addition of new markets such as Germany, Australia, France, Italy, and Canada. It achieved a single day record for GMV on Black Friday and an annualized run rate roughly seven times higher year over year.
Q:What is eBay doing to enhance the search experience for buyers?
A:To enhance the search experience, eBay is redefining discovery through genetic search, allowing buyers to shop using natural language in a dialogue with the system. This technology is built into the core search experience and powered by lightweight proprietary models for effective query intent classification and balancing latency, compute costs, and query optimization quality.
Q:What is the purpose of the eBay International Shipping (EIS) program in Canada?
A:The purpose of the EIS program in Canada is to bring the benefits of the program to Canadian sellers, including delivery duty paid functionality and the automated application of country of origin data. This will facilitate international shipping and support the expansion of seller and listing eligibility in 2026.
Q:How does the Speed Pack benefit business sellers in Germany?
A:Speed Pack is an end-to-end cross-border shipping solution that automates customs documentation and tariff calculations, simplifying compliance for small businesses. It has seen strong adoption in Japan and is now utilized for the majority of direct shipments to the US, providing a reliable and transparent experience for buyers.
Q:What were the results of eBay's five-year impact goals?
A:EBay exceeded its five-year impact goals from 2021 to 2025, achieving a cumulative positive impact of nearly $25 billion on the economy and preventing nearly 8.2 million metric tons of carbon emissions from entering the atmosphere, exceeding the target of 8 million. Additionally, they estimate over 360,000 metric tons of waste were diverted from landfills through recycling on eBay.
Q:What are the expectations for GMV growth and strategic priorities in 2026?
A:In 2026, eBay expects to accelerate emerging growth vectors such as a fully digital transaction solution for vehicles and further scale eBay Live, which is expected to become a commerce engine available in more countries. GMV is expected to grow by nearly 6%, with 8% growth in the second half of the year, driven by focus categories such as C2C and recommerce.
Q:What is the current status of eBay's AI roadmap?
A:The current status of eBay's AI roadmap is optimistic as they start 2026, having built upon a robust technical infrastructure and a foundry of proprietary models developed over the past year. This foundation enables further innovation and the delivery of hyper-personalized agentic experiences, anticipated to drive tangible value for the business.
Q:What are the financial highlights for the fourth quarter?
A:Financial highlights for the fourth quarter include GMV growth over 8% to $21.2 billion, revenue growth over 13% to $2.96 billion, non-GAAP earnings per share growth nearly 13% year over year to $1.41, and the return of $756 million to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends. GMV grew organically and was aided by foreign exchange, with focus categories and the US driving the growth.
Q:What were the impacts of returned and canceled orders on eBay's take rate?
A:In the last quarter, returned and canceled orders emerged as a headwind to eBay's take rate, although sequentially cancellation rates stabilized as sellers and buyers adjusted to new trade policies.
Q:What trends were observed in legacy third-party display ads and off-platform advertising revenue?
A:Legacy third-party display ads declined by 41% to $7 million. Off-platform advertising revenue was $21 million.
Q:How is eBay's capital allocation strategy for 2026 outlined?
A:Ebay's capital allocation strategy for 2026 includes generating free cash flow of $478 million in Q4, maintaining cash and fixed income investments of $4.8 billion, and gross debt of $6.7 billion. They plan to repurchase $625 million of eBay shares and pay a quarterly cash dividend of $131 million. For the full year, they forecast capital expenditures of 4 to 5% of revenue, targeting share repurchases and dividends, and a lower cash balance and higher interest expense affecting the net interest and other line item.
Q:How did non-GAAP gross margin change in Q4 and what factors affected it?
A:Non-GAAP gross margin was 72.1% in Q4, declining by nearly 80 basis points year over year due to tax-related tailwinds and cost of payment efficiencies being offset by managed shipping traffic acquisition costs related to promoted off-site ads and authenticity guarantee program costs.
Q:What is the forecast for Q1 2026 in terms of GMV and revenue growth?
A:The forecast for Q1 2026 includes GMV between $21.5 and $21.9 billion, representing total FX-neutral growth between 10 and 12% year over year. Revenue is expected to be between $3 and $3.05 billion, implying total FX-neutral growth of 13% to 15% year over year.
Q:What are the expectations for non-GAAP operating income and earnings per share in Q1 2026?
A:Non-GAAP operating income growth is expected to be between 11 and 16% year over year in Q1, with a non-GAAP operating margin between 28.3 and 29.2%. Non-GAAP earnings per share are forecasted between $1.053 and $1.059, representing year-over-year growth between 12 and 16%.
Q:What is eBay's preliminary view on the full year performance excluding the impact of the pending acquisition?
A:Ebay's preliminary view on the full year, excluding the impact of the pending acquisition, assumes year-over-year GMV growth similar to 2025 on an FX-neutral basis. They expect revenue growth to be in line to slightly ahead of GMV growth on an FX-neutral basis, with non-GAAP operating income growth between 8 and 10% year over year.
Q:What are the projected impacts of the pending Depop acquisition on eBay's financials?
A:The pending Depop acquisition is projected to close in Q1, adding a business generating approximately $100 billion of annual gross merchandise sales primarily in the U.S. market, with nearly 60% year-over-year growth in 2025. Depop is expected to contribute 100 to 2 percentage points to total FX-neutral GMB growth in 2026. The acquisition is also expected to be a low single-digit headwind to the 8% to 10% operating income growth forecast for the core eBay marketplace, and to dilute non-GAAP earnings per share growth by low single digits.
Q:How did eBay perform in 2025 and what is the outlook for 2026?
A:In 2025, eBay accelerated GMB growth to nearly 6%, increased non-GAAP operating income by roughly 20% year over year, and grew non-GAAP earnings per share by nearly 13% over the prior year. The outlook for 2026 implies another strong year of balanced top and bottom line growth, with investments supporting an exciting innovation roadmap for customers.
Q:What factors have contributed to the sustained acceleration in the US market?
A:The sustained acceleration in the US market is attributed to the underlying health of the business, which is the strongest it's been since the speaker joined the company six years ago. The years of investment made by the company are paying off, evidenced by growth across strategic priorities and focus categories. Specifically, C2C and recommerce grew in the high single to low double digits, contributing to a significant majority of GMV.
Q:What is the impact of the new focus categories and AI tools on the company's international markets?
A:The focus category initiatives rolled out internationally have performed well and the C2C efforts have continued to do so. The expansion of eBay Live to other markets has been successful. However, Europe has faced challenges due to low consumer confidence and subdued retail sales trends. Nonetheless, the company believes that what is working in the US is also working internationally, despite the different macro environment.
Q:What user behavior changes are expected with the implementation of AI on the eBay platform?
A:AI implementation on eBay is expected to lead to a differentiated experience in commerce, with a focus on leveraging technology like a next-generation listing and search solution. These tools are anticipated to improve customer satisfaction and build a strong foundation for the company to benefit from long-term trends, given the unique aspects of its inventory and the trust built in its marketplace experiences.
Q:How will the acquisition of Depop impact eBay's business, particularly in the fashion segment?
A:The acquisition of Depop is expected to supercharge eBay's C2C strategy, especially in the US, where the C2C business saw mid-teens year-over-year growth in 2025. Depop's focus on the US market and investments in sustainability and fashion make it a great strategic fit for eBay. The addition of Depop is expected to bring a younger consumer base and contribute to the strong growth already seen in fashion, with the potential for continued strong growth in the future.
Q:What are the revenue synergies expected from the acquisition of Depop and how will assets from eBay support its growth?
A:Revenue synergies from the acquisition of Depop are expected through the integration of assets developed by eBay, such as the authenticity guarantee, shipping, cross-border trade payments, and financial services. These services are intended to bolster the growth of not only the core eBay marketplace but also standalone platforms like Depop.
Q:What is the impact of the increase in precious metals on the bullion and coins category in Q4 and Q1?
A:The increase in precious metals led to an acceleration in the demand for bullion and coins in Q4 and this demand continued into Q1. However, it was clarified that bullion accounts for a significant portion of the sequential acceleration rather than all of it. The company continued to see broad-based strength in Q1.
Q:How does eBay view its position in the AI-driven commerce evolution and what strategies are in place to leverage this?
A:Ebay is taking an in-house approach to build AI commerce capabilities, exemplified by the newest version of Magic Listings and a unified agentic commerce platform to test different experiences. The company has also partnered with OpenAI Ads for a pilot program. They believe their unique inventory and strong trust with their buyer community will position them well for AI-driven commerce growth.
Q:What is the impact of eBay Live on transactions, customer demographics, and engagement on the platform?
A:Ebay Live has contributed to the double-digit growth in focus categories by making live more discoverable across the site and integrating it into streams at relevant points in the buyer journey. The expansion into new markets and categories, such as high-profile events and sports trading cards, has attracted new buyers, driven engagement, and built trust for sellers. A significant event generated $2 million in sales, showcasing the potential for sellers to drive GMV through live commerce.
Q:What progress has been made in the partnership with Facebook Marketplace and what are the benefits to both parties?
A:The partnership with Facebook Marketplace has seen progress in that eBay inventory has been expanded into search, which is a new platform for the partnership. The volume and categories of inventory shared on Facebook Marketplace have been increased, benefiting both the existing presence in the marketplace and the users discovering unique, trusted inventory. This partnership is positive for eBay sellers and beneficial for Facebook users seeking a wide range of products.
Q:How has the trail car business performed and what are the prospects for its sustainability?
A:The trail car business has performed exceptionally well, driven by innovation and renewed excitement among collectors. A diverse range of trading cards and collectible card games have contributed to the growth. The segment's outlook is positive with a long runway for secular growth, supported by new buyer and seller activity, as well as an increase in average selling prices due to a mix shift towards higher-priced items.
Q:What is the effect of AI on user behavior and conversion rates for items sold on eBay?
A:AI-driven traffic on eBay is small but characterized by high intent, resulting in high conversion rates. The AI-enabled search tools, such as genetic search, are well-received by enthusiast buyers and aid in refining and filtering their search results. This indicates that AI is contributing to a positive user experience and increased likelihood of transactions on the platform.
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