托尔兄弟 (TOL.US) 2026财年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Toll Brothers delivered robust Q1 FY2026 results, exceeding guidance with 1,899 homes delivered, $1.85B revenue, and 26.5% adjusted gross margin. They anticipate margin improvement, cautious optimism about market, and aim to grow community count by 8-10%. Strong liquidity and balanced inventory mix support future growth, with a focus on affluent markets and innovation.
会议速览
CEO announces leadership transition, CFO reviews financial results, and President discusses market conditions and operational strategies for future growth.
Home building revenue surpassed guidance by $24 million, reaching $1.85 billion. Adjusted gross and SGA margins exceeded expectations by 25 and 30 points respectively. Earnings per share increased by 25% to $2.19, outperforming the previous year and guidance.
Despite flat unit sales, the company signed 2303 net contracts worth $2.4 billion, marking a 3% increase in dollar value year-over-year, driven by a higher average sales price of $1033000.
Highlights an increase in traffic and sales, a balanced pricing strategy, and a strong financial position, with plans for continued growth through strategic land acquisition and a focus on affluent customer segments.
Expressed gratitude for investor and board trust, highlighted Q1 achievements including revenue and earnings growth, and forecasted capitalized demand with a diversified portfolio.
The dialogue highlights robust performance in real estate markets along the Boston to South Carolina corridor, in California, and in cities like Boise, Las Vegas, and Reno. Florida has shown resilience, except for Tampa. Luxury move-up business thrives. Challenges persist in Atlanta, San Antonio, and the Pacific Northwest.
The dialogue highlights a strategic balance between high-margin, customizable build-to-order homes and faster-turning spec homes to appeal to diverse buyer preferences, emphasizing the financial strength of buyers, low cancellation rates, and the benefits of design studio upgrades.
In the first quarter, home sales revenues reached $1.85 billion with 1899 homes delivered at an average price of $977,000. Adjusted gross margin surpassed guidance at 26.5%, driven by operational efficiency. Net agreements signed were flat in units but up 3% in dollars, with an average contract price of $1,033,000, up 3% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. The company completed a significant sale of its apartment living portfolio, netting $330 million, aligning with plans to exit the multifamily development business. Tax rate for the quarter was 22.9%, slightly better than guidance.
The dialogue outlines financial projections for fiscal 2026, including liquidity, debt ratios, home delivery forecasts, and expected margins. It also discusses strategic growth plans, such as increasing community counts and land sales, alongside tax rate expectations and share count targets.
Discusses the enduring optimism for the US housing market's future, highlighting strong demand driven by demographic shifts, generational wealth transfers, and home price appreciation, alongside a supply shortage. Outlines strategies for navigating the market to deliver robust returns, emphasizing the importance of employee dedication in maintaining industry leadership.
The dialogue discusses the factors behind a 100 basis point drop in gross margins from Q1 to Q2, attributing it to fewer contributions from the high-margin Europe, Middle East, and Africa region. It highlights the seasonal nature of regional contributions, with expectations of margin improvement in Q4 due to increased revenue from North America and the Pacific regions.
The dialogue explores Sumitomo's acquisition of Tri-Point, suggesting a strategic aim to diversify from Japan's aging demographic and potentially introduce advanced construction technology, akin to Toyota's approach in the automotive industry, while aggressively expanding in the US housing market through acquisitions of mid-cap builders.
A discussion on the need for innovation and technology in home building operations, highlighting the potential contributions from Japanese methods, and the challenges faced by the industry in adopting such advancements.
Speakers discuss balancing speculative construction with build-to-order approaches, targeting a mid-teens net debt-to-capital ratio, and maintaining a few hundred million in cash reserves for operational needs, including land purchases. Emphasis is placed on executing well in the design studio process and adjusting spec starts based on market conditions.
The dialogue discusses the company's sales performance in January, noting modest increases in web traffic, physical visits, and deposits compared to the previous year. Despite peers reporting weather as a hindrance, the company observed no significant impact. The data suggests cautious optimism for the ongoing spring selling season.
A week-long disruption in schooling and significant tree loss at Vanderbilt occurred due to storms affecting the mids Atlantic region, particularly North Carolina to Georgia, while areas like Philly, New York, Boston, and Washington recovered swiftly. The Carolinas to Atlanta corridor experienced the most severe effects.
Sequential gross margin improvement expected in Q3 and Q4, driven by increased luxury sales and higher revenue from the Pacific and northern regions, with Q4 benefits anticipated to accelerate.
Discussion covers maintaining current pricing incentives, flat building costs, and mid-single-digit land inflation, with cautious optimism for Q4 gross margins and land market investment.
Discussion on the increase in sales metrics—web traffic, foot traffic, and deposits—compared to the previous year, alongside an examination of how incentive strategies differ from broader market trends.
Speakers discuss maintaining an 8% incentive rate for construction inventory, highlighting success in adjusting completed specs and build-to-order business strategies. Despite efforts to sell more finished inventory, margin performance improved, indicating effective management and conservative budgeting for the spec business. Confidence in the full-year margin guide is expressed.
Discusses conditions under which incentives may be reduced, emphasizing pace and price dynamics. Explores labor market flexibility and cost concerns amid potential spring market strength, highlighting operational readiness and supply chain adaptability.
Speakers discuss the potential impact of tariffs on goods and the abundant labor supply, emphasizing the role of scale and product rationalization in mitigating pressures, while expressing optimism for a robust spring season.
Discussed advantages in land purchasing with seller financing, noting reduced competition in luxury home building. Highlighted price increases in 30%-40% of communities, particularly strong in the Boston to South Carolina corridor. Emphasized recent sales successes in various regions, correcting timeframes to recent eight weeks for sales figures.
Traffic and deposits slightly up in January, with consistent activity across all consumer segments, including the snowbird demographic, indicating balanced performance without standout gains or losses.
The dialogue discusses the lingering effects of the H1B controversy on ethnic homebuyer demand, noting a modest pause in customer activity nationwide due to uncertainty around visa status. While the Pacific Northwest is identified as a weaker market, the impact is not concentrated there, with sales teams reporting a broad but mild impact.
Discussion revolves around the feasibility of expanding manufacturing plant operations to markets like Texas or Phoenix, highlighting transportation costs as a significant barrier. The preference for current vertical integration benefits is expressed, with no immediate plans for expansion due to cost considerations.
Discussion highlights strategic shifts in product mix and land acquisition for improved sales velocity in the Northeast, focusing on infill development and repurposing of office spaces, alongside a resilient community pipeline due to lower inventory levels post-pandemic.
The dialogue discusses a strategic shift towards more attached products in the Northeast and California, highlighting significant land acquisition prospects in the north and mid-Atlantic regions, which are seen as particularly promising.
Despite a relatively stable number of lots controlled, confidence remains high in achieving annual community count growth of 7% to 10%, supported by a robust land bank of approximately 75,000 lots, with 55% optioned, providing a 2.7-year owned land supply net of backlog.
The dialogue highlights the consistent spending trends in design studios, emphasizing improvements in professionalism and margins. It also covers the company's strategic cost reductions and ability to scale up operations as market conditions improve, showcasing adaptability and efficiency in managing resources for future growth.
要点回答
Q:What percentage of home building revenues is accounted for by the luxury move up segment?
A:The luxury move up segment accounts for 50% of home building revenues.
Q:What is the mix of spec homes at various stages of construction?
A:On average, approximately one third of the spec homes sell before framing is completed.
Q:What was the contract cancellation rate in the first quarter?
A:The contract cancellation rate in the first quarter was 2.8% of backlog.
Q:How long was the cycle time for build to order homes and spec homes in the first quarter?
A:The cycle time for build to order homes was approximately 9.5 months, and for spec homes, it was about one month shorter.
Q:What was the adjusted gross margin for the first quarter?
A:The adjusted gross margin for the first quarter was 26.5%, which was 25 basis points better than the guidance.
Q:What is the company's outlook for fiscal 2026 in terms of deliveries, average price, and adjusted gross margin?
A:For fiscal 2026, the company projects approximately 2400 to 2500 homes to be delivered in the second quarter with an average delivered price between $975,000 and $985,000. The full fiscal year is projected to deliver between 10,000 and 31,070 homes with an average price between $970,000 and $990,000. The adjusted gross margin is expected to be 25.5% for the second quarter and 26.0% for the full year.
Q:What factors are driving the long-term demand for homes?
A:The long-term demand for homes is being driven by strong demographic tailwinds, such as the millennial generation entering its peak home buying years, the arrival of Gen Z, and the baby boomers passing down wealth in the largest generational wealth transfer. The appreciation of home prices over the past decade for the majority of the 88 million American households that own homes and the underserved housing market supply continue to support the market.
Q:What is the impact of the housing market's undersupply?
A:The undersupply in the housing market means that it would require an additional 1 to 3 million new homes to reach equilibrium based on population growth. This undersupply is a result of the long-term demand being stronger than the current supply.
Q:What is the main focus of Toll Brothers' luxury business?
A:The main focus of Toll Brothers' luxury business is to serve a more affluent customer segment and to drive strong returns for stockholders.
Q:What factors contributed to the sequential decline in gross margins from the second quarter to the third quarter?
A:The sequential decline in gross margins is attributed to having less specific volume in the second quarter, which is a high-margin region that reverses itself as the year progresses, particularly in the fourth quarter when more homes are expected to be sold from both the north and the Pacific region, which are known for their lower margins.
Q:What are Toll Brothers' thoughts on the Sumitomo acquisition of TRI Pointe?
A:Toll Brothers are curious about whether Sumitomo has a larger goal of introducing more technology into the housing industry similar to what Toyota did in the automotive sector during the 1980s. However, the company does not have enough insight to confirm this and suggests that Doug Bower might be able to provide more information.
Q:How does Toll Brothers plan to adjust its strategy in a potential softening market?
A:In the event of a softening market, Toll Brothers would pull back on spec starts and prioritize selling homes earlier in the construction process. The company aims to maintain a balance by leaning into build-to-order homes if the market conditions worsen.
Q:What long-term financial targets is Toll Brothers aiming for?
A:Toll Brothers aims for long-term net debt to total capital to be in the mid-teens. They also indicate a need to maintain a minimum cash holding of a few hundred million dollars to cover normal operating expenses, including land purchases, throughout the year.
Q:How has the weather impacted sales and traffic compared to normal seasonality?
A:Toll Brothers reported that there has been no significant impact from weather on sales and traffic, with web traffic, physical traffic visiting communities, and deposits being up modestly over the same period last year. These data points suggest that the performance is tracking better or in line with normal seasonality, despite some peers reporting weather as a headwind.
Q:What is the current industry sentiment regarding the housing market?
A:The industry sentiment is characterized as 'cautious optimism,' which is attributed to modest but positive indicators such as increased sales as the spring selling season began, although the increase was not substantial compared to the prior year.
Q:How did the recent weather event impact the housing market?
A:The recent weather event significantly impacted the housing market, causing a slowdown of about a week to 10 days in the mids Atlantic corridor from North Carolina to Georgia, which includes major cities such as Philadelphia, New York, Boston, and Washington. However, outside of this corridor, areas like Atlanta were able to recover quickly.
Q:What is the expected trend for gross margins in the upcoming quarters?
A:Gross margins are expected to improve sequentially in the second and third quarters, with particular strength anticipated in the fourth quarter due to the timing of luxury closings. Improvements are attributed to a better mix of revenue from the Pacific and the North along with a shift towards higher-end luxury items.
Q:How are pricing incentives and other cost factors influencing gross margins?
A:Pricing incentives have remained consistent at around 8%, which is where they've been for the last three quarters. There's a focus on managing completed specs and their incentives while also having a conservative approach to the spec business in the budget. Despite an increase in finished inventory sales, the company was able to maintain the same 8% incentive rate and beat margins.
Q:What is the current outlook for land prices and the company's investment strategy?
A:The company is seeing low to mid single-digit inflation on land prices. For investment strategy, they are planning to be aggressive in land investing, although the specific details of their plans were not provided.
Q:What specific metrics are used to gauge the housing market's performance?
A:To gauge the housing market's performance, the company looks at three key metrics: web traffic, foot traffic to communities, and deposits. All three are up modestly compared to a year ago.
Q:What factors are considered when deciding whether to dial back incentives?
A:Factors considered when deciding whether to dial back incentives include the overall market performance and the company's ability to increase pace of sales. If the market improves, the company might increase pace first, and as that happens, prices could also go up. However, the specific conditions that would prompt a reduction in incentives were not detailed in the transcript.
Q:What are the effects of urgency in the sales office and on-site activities?
A:The effects of urgency in the sales office and on-site activities include an increase in activity, deposits appearing on the site plan, and a sales center that drives both pace and price.
Q:How does the current infrastructure support the volume of homes built per community?
A:The current infrastructure supports a volume of homes built of 30,000 homes per year per community, and it is believed that this scale will help in maintaining availability of labor and managing costs despite seeing a slight uptick in lumber prices at the start of the year.
Q:What are the expectations regarding labor availability and cost in the upcoming spring season?
A:There is no immediate impact from tariffs being seen, and plenty of labor availability is noticed with more people showing up to work. While it's hard to predict pressure on labor ahead, especially in a robust spring, the company plans to leverage its scale and rationalization of products to minimize impacts.
Q:Are there opportunities for land purchases, especially given Toll's performance compared to other builders?
A:Opportunities for land purchases are becoming more efficient as there are fewer builders with capital and the desire to build luxury homes above a million dollars, which plays into Toll's strengths. Well-structured land deals are being watched and are seen as more feasible now.
Q:What is the impact of increased prices on community sales?
A:30% to 40% of communities have seen price increases in the first quarter, with the north region showing the strongest performance. Sales figures provided were for the last two months and not for the quarter.
Q:How does the age targeting of the sales efforts correlate with the snowbird season?
A:The age targeting of sales efforts is consistent across consumer segments and there is no standout group that is performing significantly better or worse than others, indicating consistent activity across the business including during the snowbird season.
Q:How has the market in the Pacific Northwest performed since the controversy over the H1B visa?
A:Since the controversy over the H1B visa, there has been a modest pause in customer activity across the country, and while it's not concentrated in the Pacific Northwest, it is still a topic of concern according to feedback from the sales force.
Q:What would be the implications of expanding the business to other markets such as Texas or Phoenix?
A:The implications of expanding the business to other markets such as Texas or Phoenix would involve significant transportation costs due to the distance from existing facilities on the East Coast. There is no immediate need or desire for expansion, and the company has not seen a compelling reason to change its current footprint.
Q:Why has inventory remained muted during the pandemic?
A:Inventory has remained muted during the pandemic because the regions mentioned were not markets that experienced significant growth, leading to fewer properties available for sale.
Q:What is the impact of the repositioning strategy on product type?
A:The repositioning strategy has led to a greater focus on attached product types, which is consistent in both the Northeast and parts of California.
Q:What land opportunities are being observed in the North and mid-Atlantic regions?
A:Outsized land opportunities are currently being observed in the North and the mid-Atlantic regions, which is seen as very exciting for the company.
Q:What is the approximate number of lots owned or controlled by the company?
A:The company owns or controls approximately 75,000 lots.
Q:Has there been any notable trend in spending at the design studios and how has the margin changed?
A:The design studio upgrades as a percentage of the home have been consistent over the years. The margin has improved over time, but the spending patterns have been very consistent.
Q:How are the recent headcount reductions structured to balance costs and prepare for normalization?
A:The company is ensuring the business is structured efficiently. If conditions improve, the business can staff up with field personnel and sales teams while maintaining a stable back office. The belief is that the existing team has capacity to increase revenue significantly.

Toll Brothers, Inc.
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