希捷科技公司 (STX.US) 2026财年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Seagate's fiscal second-quarter results showcased record-breaking exabyte shipments and profitability, driven by strategic pricing, product mix optimization, and advancements in aerial density technology. The company emphasized disciplined supply management, long-term agreements with cloud service providers, and the transition to higher capacity drives to meet growing data storage demands. Seagate anticipates sustained demand growth, particularly in the data center market, and aims to maintain profitability through cost efficiencies and strategic manufacturing planning.
会议速览
Seagate's leadership discusses Q2 financials, highlighting GAAP and non-GAAP measures, and outlines forward-looking statements with associated risks, urging investors to review SEC filings for further details.
Seagate achieved a record-breaking quarter with significant revenue growth across various markets, exceeding financial expectations. The company set new records for exabyte shipments, gross margin, operating margin, and non-GAAP earnings per share. Hammer technology, with its high-capacity drives, played a crucial role in these achievements, solidifying Seagate's position in mass capacity storage. The year also saw advancements in Mosaic II Hammer drives, aligning with Seagate's long-term aerial density roadmap towards 20 terabytes per disk.
The dialogue highlights robust demand for high capacity drives in global cloud data centers, with orders fully allocated through the current year. Positive demand trends are expected to continue, supported by long-term agreements with major cloud customers and discussions on future demand growth. Supply assurance remains a top priority for customers.
Discusses Seagate's approach to maintaining supply discipline while satisfying growth through aerial density advancements, highlighting the effectiveness of their pricing strategy, the strategic value of data, and the role of hard drives in modern data center architectures, as well as the company's technological roadmap and focus on profitability and higher capacity products.
Seagate reports Q4 revenue growth, record profitability, and strategic debt reduction. Data center demand drives shipments, with AI and edge computing boosting enterprise OEM markets. Strong free cash flow and improved net leverage ratio underscore financial health, with future plans for sustained growth and operational efficiency.
The dialogue highlights robust demand, especially from global cloud customers, anticipating data center demand to surpass typical Q3 seasonality. Revenue guidance for IoT is projected with year-over-year improvements, alongside expectations for enhanced non-GAAP operating margins and EPS, reflecting a commitment to growth, profitability, and cash generation.
Instructions are given on how to ask and withdraw questions during a telephone Q&A, emphasizing time management and using specific keypad commands.
The dialogue explores strategies for incremental gross margins amid supply-demand dynamics, questioning the potential for pricing to stabilize or increase year-over-year, highlighting a shift from declining to rising average pricing per exabyte.
The discussion revolves around managing pricing and gross margin amidst strong demand and capacity expansion in the storage industry. The value proposition of new, higher-capacity drives is emphasized, along with the objective of optimizing production, sales, and profitability over a longer period. The focus is on executing better than previously discussed models, with an aim to continue improving and sustaining profitability.
Discusses the robust growth in gross margins attributed to a favorable mix shift towards data center products and persistent high demand. Highlights the industry's response to supply increases and the ongoing dialogue with customers about future capacity planning, indicating sustained demand and pricing potential.
The dialogue discusses the company's strategy to ramp up exabyte supply growth, emphasizing the challenge of tight manufacturing capacity and the transition to higher-density products. The speaker highlights the profitability of the ramp-up and the replacement of legacy products with a stronger value proposition, anticipating increased opportunities as the company approaches the Hammer crossover point.
The dialogue discusses the successful transition to Hammer technology, highlighting the qualification of major cloud service providers and the introduction of new Ly terabyte drives, which promise significant cost reductions per terabyte. This advancement is expected to contribute to improved gross margins and profitability, particularly as the volume of Ly terabyte drives ramps up, aligning with the company's strategic goals for fiscal years 26 and 27.
The dialogue covers inquiries about long-term agreements (LTAs) concerning nearline AGV capacity, highlighting the impact of fixed or multi-quarter pricing on overall capacity. It discusses the potential for higher pricing in new agreements reflecting the widening gap between enterprise hard drives and SSDs, emphasizing the role of demand and supply in pricing dynamics. The conversation also touches on the predictability of L26 production and the importance of executing plans effectively to achieve better-than-expected outcomes.
The dialogue discusses the company's guidance on exabyte shipment growth, noting mid-teens calendar year growth expectations. Despite potential for outperformance due to manufacturing efficiencies and transition trends, precise numerical guidance is not provided, emphasizing predictability for data center commitments.
A significant increase in gross margins for Q3 is attributed to a pricing strategy and favorable mix, particularly with the ramp-up of Hammer volumes. The discussion clarifies that the expansion is not primarily from the systems business, which is noted as smaller in scale, but rather from the core HDD business.
An investor acknowledges the company's impressive financial results and expresses thanks, subsequently requesting more information on the subject.
The dialogue explores the potential for significant price hikes in the Flash market as LTAs expire, discussing the impact on pricing trajectories and the introduction of higher capacity products to improve mix, amidst current flat pricing trends.
The dialogue discusses the company's strategy for pricing and supply management of high-capacity products, emphasizing the importance of demand forecasting and planning. It highlights how strong demand leads to better visibility and cost efficiency in factory operations. The company aims to dictate pricing based on new product supply constraints and market demand, expecting pricing to remain flat to slightly increase.
Discussed factors contributing to gross margin increase, emphasizing product mix, pricing strategy, and cost efficiency without offshore manufacturing shifts, with strong demand for high-capacity products driving mix benefits.
The conversation revolves around recalling an indication from a past unit, emphasizing the ease of doing so, and moves on to address upcoming questions.
Discusses the strategic approach to increasing drive capacity amidst tight supply-demand conditions, emphasizing predictability and execution in product transitions. Highlights the importance of aligning with customer needs for exabyte growth, achieving roadmap and supply alignment, and maintaining a slightly ahead schedule in node transitions.
An investor and a financial analyst engage in a detailed discussion about investment strategies, focusing on portfolio diversification and market analysis techniques.
Discussion focused on the expected acceleration in cost per terabyte decline, attributed to the integration of Ed terabytes per disk, aiming to enhance profitability. The dialogue highlighted ongoing transitions to Fort Care and addressing supply chain complexities to facilitate product ramp-up, emphasizing the strategic focus on maintaining a bright future for the company.
Discussion on LTS system capacity and pricing for 2026 and 2027, with current year's pricing and volume locked in, while future pricing is subject to agreement, emphasizing the need for predictability and planning with customers.
The dialogue discusses the alignment of CapEx with revenue targets, emphasizing the company's strategy to remain within a 4% to 6% range. It highlights the increase in CapEx due to operational needs and predicts a corresponding rise in depreciation, encouraging modeling based on revenue-driven CapEx. The conversation reassures that despite recent increases, the company is managing costs effectively, prioritizing maintenance and addressing past underinvestment.
The dialogue discusses the evolving roles of hard drives and flash storage in the context of Gen AI, emphasizing their distinct applications and tiering architectures. It clarifies that hard drives remain crucial for large data storage and streaming performance, while flash memory is more suited for random small block workloads. The conversation concludes that the current architectural tier for data storage is expected to remain stable for the next decade, catering to applications across the entire spectrum, including checkpoints, physical AI, and video.
Discussion on how the faster ramp of Hammer in the March quarter will contribute to a better gross margin profile, emphasizing sequential revenue and profitability improvements, and the priority of transitioning to meet strong demand for 4th terabyte per clutter products.
The dialogue highlights advancements in achieving targeted operational expense reductions, approaching the goal of 10% of revenue. It discusses the company's transition phase, successful navigation of challenges, and strategic reinvestment in growth areas to enhance density opportunities, ensuring financial health and future expansion.
Seagate's management highlighted the team's execution in meeting financial targets and advancing technology to meet growing data storage demands, particularly in AI applications. Appreciation was expressed towards employees, customers, suppliers, and shareholders for their contributions to the company's success.
要点回答
Q:What does Seagate consider as a key strength for the durability of hard drive technology?
A:Seagate's key strength for the durability of hard drive technology is its deep expertise across mechanical engineering, material science, nanoscale fabrication, and advanced photonics. This expertise enables Seagate to deliver on the Hammer Roadmap and create a durable competitive advantage for hard drive technology.
Q:What were the financial and operational achievements for Seagate in the previous year?
A:Seagate's achievements in the previous year include a milestone year with respect to financial performance, operational execution, and technology leadership. They carried this momentum into the new calendar year supported by strong demand, resulting in new records for profitability metrics and strong revenue growth. Financial highlights include retiring $500 million in gross debt, generating over $600 million in free cash flow, and achieving a strong non GAAP gross margin and operating margin.
Q:How did Seagate's December quarter financial results compare to the prior year?
A:Seagate's December quarter financial results showed strong year-over-year revenue growth and new records for profitability metrics. Non GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2%, up from 41% in the prior period. Non GAAP operating margin expanded as well, and non GAAP operating profit grew by 29% to $100 million. Net income grew to $700 million with non GAAP EPS of $7 dollars and 11 cents per share.
Q:What is the projected growth for the broader B market and what segment does it include?
A:The projected growth for the broader B market is expected to come from various segments, with the largest growth contribution coming from AI nearline projects, which are included in Seagate's data center market segment.
Q:What is the outlook for Seagate's March quarter and what is the anticipated revenue growth?
A:Seagate's March quarter outlook indicates a strong demand environment, particularly among global cloud customers. Data center demand is expected to more than offset typical March quarter seasonality. Edge IoT market revenue is projected to be in a range of $2.9 billion plus, representing a year-over-year improvement. Non GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $220 million, and non GAAP operating margin is anticipated to approach the mid-40% range. Non GAAP EPS is expected to be $7 dollars and 11 cents plus or minus 11 cents.
Q:What is the outlook for incremental gross margins and overall average pricing per exabyte going forward?
A:The incremental gross margins are expected to remain flat to slightly up as the company renegotiates prices with customers for the new drives. The company values the proposition of new drives that can store ed terabytes at a time, which is very strong. As for overall average pricing per exabyte, the company has seen a decrease from down double digits to high single digits and has exited the quarter down year over year. There is a possibility of flat or even positive year-over-year pricing.
Q:What factors are influencing the current and future pricing strategy?
A:The current and future pricing strategy is being influenced by the strong demand being observed. As the company rolls through into the post-summer season and assesses the capacity being brought online due to aggressive product transitions, it expects to have more exabytes available to renegotiate with customers, leading to potential flat to slightly up pricing.
Q:What has been the performance in terms of gross margins, and what is the company's strategy regarding production and profitability?
A:The company is executing well with gross margins, achieving better results than initially discussed at the investor day, with an incremental margin of over $2.6 billion of revenue. The company aims to continue optimizing production, sales, and financial profitability over the next two to three years.
Q:How does the company expect the demand for its products to persist over time?
A:The company expects demand for its products to remain strong, with customers planning ahead better due to an increase in persistence in the market. The industry's supply of exabytes has risen quite a bit, but demand is still strong, leading to good discussions with customers for the next year.
Q:What is the anticipated trajectory of revenue and profitability for the remainder of the calendar year?
A:The company projects that revenue and profitability will continue to improve sequentially every quarter for the rest of the calendar year, indicating an upward trend that is not changing and is possibly getting better.
Q:How does the company anticipate the growth of its Exabyte supply for the calendar year and beyond?
A:The company plans to transition aggressively to Exabyte growth, but the pace will be constrained by the tight manufacturing process and existing commitments to customers. The ramp-up to higher Exabyte growth will be manageable and profitable, as the company operates manufacturing at a tight capacity. The company is optimistic about the port terabyte platter's success in the market.
Q:Can you discuss the potential for cost reductions and improved profitability as you ramp Hammer with the Mosaic force?
A:The potential for cost reductions and improved profitability is a focus as the company ramps Hammer with the Mosaic force. However, specific details on achieving those targets for the Hammer rollout and the blended cost reductions are not provided in the transcript. For further insight, one would need to refer to additional materials or communications from the company.
Q:How will the new product line impact costs and gross margins?
A:The new product line is expected to have a favorable impact on costs, especially as the volume of Ly terabyte drives increases. This is anticipated to lead to a significant reduction in cost per terabyte compared to the current sum and contribute to further increases in gross margin.
Q:What is the pricing strategy for the new LTA and how does it relate to the demand and supply dynamics?
A:The pricing strategy for new LTA products is dynamic, adjusting based on the demand observed in the market and the available supply. As such, new LTA products may be priced at a higher value, reflecting the growing gap between enterprise hard drives and solid-state drives. The company actively manages the mix of products and pricing to optimize results.
Q:Can the company provide guidance on the expected end-of-year exabyte shipment growth?
A:The company is guiding for mid-teens growth in exabyte shipments for nearline storage in the future, which is in line with their financial model. While they have performed better in recent quarters, they do not provide specific guidance on a calendar-to-calendar basis.
Q:What factors are contributing to the expected margin expansion in the March quarter?
A:The expected margin expansion in the March quarter is attributed to the qualification of another customer on Hammer, which will allow for an increase in volume. However, the fundamental change is not different from what the company has done before; it is still based on pricing strategy and product mix.
Q:Is the margin expansion in the March quarter solely due to the core HDD business or is there a contribution from the systems business?
A:The margin expansion in the March quarter is not significantly due to the systems business, which is doing well but on a relatively small scale. The primary driver for the margin expansion is the core HDD business.
Q:Is there potential for more significant price increases in the future?
A:There is an expectation that there could be more significant price increases in the future, particularly as the company reprices existing long-term agreements when they roll off. Currently, average prices are flat, but there is a potential for change as existing agreements are repriced.
Q:What is the updated trajectory of the HAMR mix and how will it affect product availability?
A:The updated trajectory for the HAMR mix indicates a shift towards a higher proportion of Ed terabyte per platter products, as development and qualification of this product are being prioritized due to constrained factory capacity. This shift will positively affect the product availability and overall mix.
Q:What factors influence the pricing strategy for the company's products?
A:The pricing strategy for the company's products is influenced by the demand for new products, with constrained supply creating an environment where pricing can be dictated. While the speaker initially anticipated flat to slightly up pricing, the actual outcome depends on future demand. The strong demand has allowed the company to have better visibility into future data center procurement and to run factories more efficiently.
Q:What factors contributed to the increase in gross margins?
A:The increase in gross margins is attributed to a shift in product mix towards higher capacity and better products, driven by high demand. There has been no change in manufacturing strategy or offshoring manufacturing, but the demand for these products has significantly benefited the company. The combination of a favorable product mix and strong demand has contributed to the overall gross margin improvement.
Q:Can the company provide specific details on the impact of pricing, mix, and cost on gross margins?
A:The company does not provide specific details on the impact of pricing, mix, and cost, but acknowledges that changes in product mix have helped with cost reduction and that the supply and demand situation supports their pricing strategy. These factors are all contributing positively to the increasing gross margins, which are expected to continue through the calendar year.
Q:How does the company manage lead times and product transitions?
A:The company manages lead times and product transitions by being predictable and planning for the next year based on what they can deliver within the next six months. They base their wafer deployments on customer needs and their ability to deliver predictably while deploying engineered resources for product transitions. This approach helps maintain product mix and manage expectations.
Q:What is the status of the company's product roadmap and timeline for transitions?
A:The company's product roadmap and timeline for transitions are progressing well and are mostly under the company's control. However, some factors are also influenced by customers, particularly their need for more exabytes and their behavioral changes which aid in aligning the roadmap and supply with the south of factories.
Q:What is the company's view on the cost reduction curve with the Ed terabyte per platter hammer drive?
A:The company is very positive about the Ed terabytes per disk in terms of its impact on cost reduction. As they add more content per unit, it aids in reducing costs and improving profitability. They are qualifying this new product to major customers, and the full impact of cost reduction is expected to be stronger through the end of the calendar year and continue into the following year.
Q:What is the company's strategy for the future with respect to hard terabytes and product transitions?
A:The company plans a significant transition towards higher capacities and the Ed terabytes per platter. They acknowledge that making these transitions adds complexity, but the speed of the ramp and ability to optimize throughout the supply chain are critical. They remain focused on these efforts to provide a stable future for the product line.
Q:What is the status of pricing and exabyte agreements for 2027?
A:For 2027, the company indicates that neither pricing nor exabyte commitments are locked in, suggesting a more flexible approach to these variables compared to the previous years where both were allocated through 2026. However, it is not clear from the transcript what specific agreement the company refers to for 2027, as the transcript does not provide further details.
Q:What is the current status of production and pricing for the upcoming calendar year?
A:For the upcoming calendar year, a Production Order (PO) is in place for all quarters with volume and pricing well-defined. The majority of the volume is already allocated for calendar year 2027 and work will start soon. However, prices for some products have not yet been fixed.
Q:What is the progress with the longest lead time parts and customer discussions?
A:The progress with the longest lead time parts is pending as the speaker indicates that they have not yet started but will soon for the start of a new product line. Discussions with customers about the plan and what calls to prioritize are needed, as customers also require predictability.
Q:How should one think about depreciation given the recent increases in CapEx?
A:Depreciation should be modeled based on the CapEx, as CapEx is aligned with a target script-to-script of revenue. The company is at the bottom of that range and is not increasing in line with the revenue target or expectations. Despite several quarters of increased CapEx, depreciation should not be expected to step up significantly as the company's model is consistent with previous communication.
Q:Is the growth in both hard drive and flash storage participation in the数据中心 tiering architecture?
A:There are certain applications that are very memory-dependent and attached to compute. The speaker notes that the tiering architecture in data centers is fairly well set and won't change based on economics or architectures that are well understood. The speaker cautions against a simplistic view of hard drives as merely storing data in the background, as they are actually used for performance-intensive workloads and not just as memory-caching devices. The speaker suggests that there are applications across the entire spectrum, and while there may be some shift towards NAND in a generative AI world, the architectural tier that stores data is likely to remain constant for the next decade.
Q:What impact should the ramp-up of Hammer have on the gross margin profile?
A:The ramp-up of Hammer in the March quarter is expected to drive a better gross margin profile. As Hammer starts to ramp, gross margins are anticipated to improve. The focus on transitioning to Hammer and the expectation of strong demand for 4 terabyte per platter products are reasons for the expected improvement in revenue and profitability throughout the remainder of the calendar year.
Q:How are operating expenses expected to change as the company ramps up revenue?
A:As the company's top line ramps up with design wins and increased revenue, operating expenses (Opex) are expected to go down as a percent of mix. The company is close to achieving its fourth target of being 10% of revenue for Opex and will likely reach that in the last quarter. With continued cost control and expected revenue growth, Opex is expected to perform better.






