LOGIN | Register
Cooperation
AI应用火热,如何关注未来科技蓝海?
文章语言:
EN
Share
Minutes
原文
会议摘要
The dialogue focuses on the efficient application and market prospects of AI technology in various fields, experts analyze the advantages of AI search technology, commercial potential, and Chinese policy support, especially the promotion of the AI industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan. Li Xia analyzes the investment highlights of the AI sector in depth, including AI large models, computing chips, policy catalysis, etc., emphasizing the long-term demand for AI, analyzing the impact of the US export restrictions on the H200 chip and the domestic substitution process, discussing the progress of the deep-seek series models and the favorable factors in the domestic computing chip sector, encouraging investors to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment value of the Sci-Tech Board Artificial Intelligence ETF, proposing a dollar-cost averaging and grid trading strategy to cope with market fluctuations.
会议速览
Focus on artificial intelligence technology: in-depth analysis of market hotspots and investment highlights.
During the live broadcast, a review of last week's market highlights was conducted, including the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut, the impact of overseas macro events, and the adjustment of the domestic LPR interest rate. The focus was on the potential for profit expectations to recover for artificial intelligence technology stocks and their possible impact on A-shares, as well as the outlook for loose monetary policy to drive valuation recovery for high-growth technology stocks.
CES event focuses on new trends in AI computing power and smart wearable devices.
The CES conference displayed the rapid development of AI large models and computing infrastructure, with GPU giants introducing new generation architectures. The computing power of AI chips has reached the exabyte level, and the future of smart wearable devices is promising, with an expected market space of over a billion units in the coming years, driving the growth of the AI industry chain.
H200 chip resumes exports to China: impact and progress of domestic alternatives
The restoration of exports of the H200 chip to China involves considerations of the market share demand of American companies and the potential growth of the Chinese economy. This event has a dual impact on accelerating the localization process of China's AI computing power. On one hand, the restoration of supply can satisfy the short-term computing power needs of enterprises. On the other hand, uncertainty drives domestic chip manufacturers to accelerate technological iteration and ecosystem adaptation, forming a dual-track parallel pattern. This provides a market validation window for the domestic artificial intelligence industry chain and is optimistic about the domestic substitution space for the domestic computing power sector in the medium to long term.
AI bubble theory meets rebuttal: Chip giants' financial reports and storage cycles reveal true demand.
Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, there has been talk of an AI bubble in the global capital markets, but in early 2026, the strong performance of chip manufacturing giants and the super cycle of storage chips provided a powerful rebuttal. The financial reports of chip giants show double-digit revenue and profit growth, with gross profit margins reaching a ten-year high, and revenue from advanced processes below 7 nanometers accounting for 77% of total revenue, surpassing smartphones for the first time to become the largest source of income for the company. At the same time, the company announced an aggressive capital expenditure plan, locking in production capacity based on real demand prepayments. The price of storage chips has increased by 40%, with HBM chips experiencing even greater increases due to the surge in demand for AI servers, reflecting the true downstream demand. Storage chip manufacturers have increased capital expenditures, collectively validating the sustainability of AI demand and providing a strong counterattack to the AI bubble theory.
The new DeepSeek model is driving the upgrading of domestic computing power, optimizing algorithms to replace hardware stacking.
DeepSeek's latest model, Model One, and V4 series are expected to be significantly optimized through algorithms such as the MOE architecture and MHC training methods, reducing AI computing power consumption. This will enhance the performance and market competitiveness of domestic chips such as the Ascend 910B, further opening up the imagination space for domestic replacement of computing power and strengthening the investment value of the artificial intelligence sector.
In 2026, the application of AI becomes the main investment theme, and the Qianwen App leads the new trend of ecological integration.
The conversation discussed the importance of AI applications in 2026, especially the release of the Qianwen APP marking a breakthrough in transactional AI assistants, demonstrating consumers' high acceptance of AI and reducing market education costs. The Qianwen APP showcases the commercial potential of AI in e-commerce, local life, transportation, and other areas, providing reference cases for other companies to implement AI applications. In addition, the ability to integrate ecosystems has become a key factor in AI competition, as platforms with mature business ecosystems and user bases will accelerate the embedding of AI capabilities, forming a moat of AI plus scenarios. China's huge Internet user base and data dividend will further strengthen its endowment advantage in the artificial intelligence industry.
From 2026 onwards, the GO concept will lead the new trend of AI applications.
Since 2026, Generative Optimization (GO) has become the focus of the market, aiming to enhance the visibility of content in AI-generated answers, with the goal of increasing the citation rate and recommendation priority of brand or product information, and achieving zero-click exposure. With the arrival of the AI era, consumer habits have shifted from manual searches on multiple platforms to one-stop AI consultations. 83% of users use AI to obtain consumer information, with satisfaction exceeding traditional searches and shopping time reduced by over 30%. The GO strategy not only provides advertising monetization paths for AI platforms, but also solves the monetization difficulties of AI applications, with an estimated market size in China reaching 24 billion yuan by 2030. At the same time, the GO strategy promotes the independent and controllable development of the domestic AI industry chain, accelerating the iteration of domestic AI large models and the maturity of the industry chain, which is beneficial for the domestic artificial intelligence sector.
In 2026, the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the artificial intelligence sector will usher in policy dividends and investment opportunities.
In 2026, as the opening year of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, the artificial intelligence sector will benefit from policy catalysis, including promoting the integrated development of industry, technology, and talent, accelerating commercialization, strengthening the logic of domestic substitution, and promoting the empowerment of the manufacturing industry. It is expected to continue to see an upward trend in valuation in the spring market, with outstanding investment value.
Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index: Integration of High Purity, High Elasticity, and High Precision Technology
The Science and Technology Innovation Board's Artificial Intelligence Index focuses on five major industries including electronics and computers, featuring high purity, high elasticity, and cutting-edge technology. It particularly highlights the weight in the field of digital chip design, representing China's leading AI technology capabilities and reflecting the combination of national strategic support and technological innovation.
Analysis of Valuation and Discussion of Investment Strategy for Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index
The dialogue provides a detailed analysis of the high valuation background and rationality of the artificial intelligence index on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It points out that although the current valuation is high, it is still near the historical median, and the PEG indicator indicates that it still has investment value. At the same time, it emphasizes the advantages of a dollar-cost averaging strategy in diversifying market volatility, reducing investment threshold, and overcoming human weaknesses. It suggests that investors choose suitable investment methods based on their own situation, and seize the investment opportunities in the Science and Technology Innovation Board artificial intelligence ETF.
Core plus satellite strategy: a balanced approach to investing in stability and opportunity.
The discussion centered around selecting investment strategies based on market conditions, recommending the core-satellite approach. This method involves using broad-based indexes as core assets to provide a safety net, while incorporating satellite assets such as artificial intelligence to capture excess returns. It is suitable for investors seeking a balance between stability and opportunity, and it is recommended to adjust asset allocation based on individual investment goals and risk tolerance.
Detailed Explanation of ETF Grid Trading Strategy: Achieving Stable Returns by Buying Low and Selling High
The dialogue detailed the ETF grid trading strategy, which is based on market volatility, by setting buy and sell price points to achieve buying low and selling high, aiming to reduce timing risks, average costs, and lock in profits. The strategy is divided into two parts, buying and selling. When buying, buy more at low prices and less at high prices. When selling, sell more at high prices and less at low prices. Through the rule of buying and selling in batches, the strategy can flexibly respond to market fluctuations and achieve stable returns.
要点回答
Q:What were the important market hotspots events overseas last week?
A:Last week, the United States released the core PCE price index for October and November, which has an important impact on the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, comments from the US president regarding the potential purchase of Greenland and threats to impose tariffs on European allies have led to a decrease in market risk appetite, with major US tech stock indices falling. However, at the Davos Forum, the president's statements were somewhat moderated, including a postponement of tariffs on Europe in February, and looking ahead to the midterm elections, which has gradually increased market risk sentiment.
Q:What is the recent situation of artificial intelligence technology stocks? What were the important macro events in China last week?
A:Starting from this week, some artificial intelligence technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq seven sisters are entering the period of financial report disclosure. If the profit expectations of these technology stocks can be repaired, it may have a mapping effect on the profit expectations of global leading artificial intelligence stocks, thereby affecting the performance of A-share artificial intelligence sectors. Last week, the LPR rate remained unchanged, and the first structural interest rate cut of the year occurred, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the relending rediscount rate. In addition, the central bank spokesperson stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated. These factors indicate that the domestic loose monetary policy is expected to continue, which may create momentum for the valuation repair of high valuation and high growth technology stocks, including the artificial intelligence sector.
Q:What trends about AI are worth paying attention to at the CES conference?
A:At the CES conference, the ability of large AI models is developing rapidly, and the evolution of underlying computational power infrastructure is providing hardware foundation for AI applications. Global chip giants showcased the rapid growth trend of computational power and the new application opportunities it brings. The founder of a GPU giant believes that the era of physical AI like ChatGPT has arrived, with applications such as autonomous taxis expected to be among the first to benefit. Additionally, the chairman of an AI chip computational power giant pointed out that computational power is entering the era of YottaFLOPS floating-point operations, unleashing the potential of AI in data centers, personal computing devices, and edge computing. The rapid development of AI large models is driving a significant increase in training floating-point computational power and improving inference performance.
Q:What impact does the resumption of exports of AI computing chips have on the domestic substitution process of AI computing power chips?
A:The restoration of the export of H200 chips to China involves a complex result of multiple factors and intricate negotiations, with significant implications for accelerating the domestic substitution process for AI computing power.
Q:Why do leading AI companies in the United States hope to resume exporting high-end chips to China?
A:On the one hand, they do not want to lose the huge market share in China. Since the United States prohibited the sale of high-end chips to China in 2022, related revenue has decreased significantly, causing a market opportunity loss of over $50 billion for leading global AI computing chip companies. It is estimated that by 2025, the AI computing chip market in China will reach around 180 billion yuan, and it is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030. Continuously blocking China could significantly damage the revenue expectations of American technology companies. On the other hand, the United States is also realizing that the blockade of Chinese chip technology is accelerating the technological enhancement and domestic substitution process of domestic technology companies in AI chips, which is putting pressure on them.
Q:What is the current status of the development of domestic AI chips?
A:By 2025, the domestication rate of Chinese AI chips has reached 42%, a significant increase from the 15% in 2022. Some domestic technology companies like Cambricon and Horizon Robotics are already capable of producing chips comparable to the American H20 level. Additionally, there is strong policy support for the development of the AI industry, with a requirement for newly built data centers to have a domestication rate of over 70%. This means that the time window for overseas AI companies to enter the Chinese market is shrinking.
Q:What is the impact of the resumption of supply of the H200 chip on the market?
A:There is uncertainty in the recovery of supply of H200 chips. For supply chain security and cost considerations, related AI companies are demanding accelerated production and ecosystem adaptation of domestic chips, forming a dual-track parallel pattern. On one hand, using the recovered supply of H200 chips to meet short-term computing power needs, on the other hand, urging domestic chip manufacturers to improve software stacks, tool chains, and framework compatibility. This creates a valuable market validation window for the domestic AI industry chain, helping upstream computing power manufacturers with technology iteration and chip yield improvement, while also supporting continuous development of downstream AI applications.
Q:What is the relationship between the rhetoric of the AI bubble and the recent performance of chip manufacturing giants?
A:Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the AI bubble theory has spread in the global capital market, but at the beginning of this year, a series of key aspects of the industry chain exceeded expectations in terms of performance growth and the mismatch between supply and demand, which refuted this theory. For example, the world's leading chip manufacturing company's fourth quarter financial report for 2025 showed that revenue, net profit, and gross profit margin all reached historical highs, with products using advanced processes below 7 nanometers accounting for 77% of revenue, surpassing smartphones for the first time to become the largest source of income. This indicates that the AI industry trend has far from reached the late stage of growth in terms of gross profit margin indicators, which is completely opposite to the characteristic of companies sacrificing profits to seize market share during the bubble period.
Q:What is the capital expenditure guidance for this chip manufacturing giant in 2026, and how much does it increase compared to 2025? What are the circumstances on which this company's capital expenditure plan is based?
A:The chip manufacturing giant's capital expenditure guidance for the year 2026 is between 520 to 560 billion US dollars, compared to 409 billion US dollars in 2025, representing an increase of approximately 27% to 37%, setting a new record high. The company's capital expenditure plan is based on real needs repeatedly validated with customers, who have already locked in capacity and made prepayments 2 to 3 years in advance. The company has never blindly expanded capacity without real order support in its history.
Q:How are prices of storage chips changing, and what does it reflect in terms of market demand?
A:In the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the prices of traditional storage chips such as AND and DRAM rose by about 40%, with the price of new HBM chips increasing by more than 40% due to the surge in demand for AI servers. As storage chips are part of the AI computing infrastructure, the price hike validates the authenticity of downstream AI demand. Furthermore, the fact that the expansion cycle of storage chip manufacturers lasts 18 to 24 months indicates the sustainability and authenticity of AI demand.
Q:What are the expectations of the market for the DeepSight series models, and what is the impact on the domestic computing power sector?
A:The market is expecting the DeepSight series models to integrate the latest research findings, especially its research team's release of the MHC training method and biologically-inspired AIG module earlier this year. For the domestic computing power sector, with the iterative updates of the V series and R series models, especially the V4 model is expected to have stronger coding capabilities and reduce AI computing power consumption through algorithm optimization. This will bring favorable conditions for domestic computing power chips, enhance the availability of domestic computing power, reduce dependence on overseas high-end computing power chips, and thus unlock the investment value of the artificial intelligence sector.
Q:Why has AI application become an important investment theme in 2026, and what is the significance of the release of millions of apps?
A:AI applications will become an important investment theme in 2026 because of their rapid commercialization process. For example, a popular app reached over a billion monthly active users in just two months, proving that consumers' acceptance of service-oriented AI far exceeds expectations and creating a user base dividend for the industry. According to relevant forecasts, the market size of large AI models in China is expected to reach around 739 billion yuan in 2026.
Q:What application scenarios were showcased in this Qiandoc press conference, and what stage of AI application development does it represent?
A:The press conference of Qianwen showcased more than 400 lifestyle service functions including ordering takeout, booking flights, shopping and payment, price comparison, etc. This represents the closed-loop verification of AI intelligent body in high-frequency consumer scenarios, and it is beginning to transition to the era of intelligent bodies that can directly help users execute tasks.
Q:Has the focus of AI competition shifted from early-stage model parameter competitions to ecosystem integration capabilities?
A:Yes, AI competition has transitioned from an early model parameter competition to a future emphasis on the ability of ecological integration. Internet platforms with mature business ecosystems and user bases will accelerate the embedding of AI capabilities into their own ecosystems, forming a competitive advantage of AI plus scenarios.
Q:GO(Generative Engine Optimization)是什么概念,有哪些投资机会?
A:GO, short for generative engine optimization, refers to the optimization of content for AI search or question-and-answer systems (such as GPT, deep seek, and Douyin). The main goal is to improve the visibility of brand or product information in AI-generated answers, achieving zero-click exposure. With the arrival of the AI era, consumer habits are shifting towards one-stop consulting AI models. GO provides a new advertising monetization path for AI platforms, potentially solving monetization challenges and bringing about significant market growth. It provides clear commercial expectations for the AI application layer.
Q:What is the strategic significance of GEO's independent and controllable domestic AI industry chain?
A:The development of GEO is beneficial to the independent and controllable domestic AI industry chain, as traditional online marketing highly relies on foreign search engines. The GEO strategy mainly focuses on optimizing domestic AI platforms such as DBCC and Doudianbei, making enterprise traffic acquisition more dependent on local ecosystems and reducing the risk of policy changes from external platforms. Furthermore, the demand for GEO optimization also promotes more enterprises to use domestic AI platforms for content distribution and performance monitoring, accelerating the iteration of domestic AI large models and the maturity of the industry chain ecosystem.
Q:In the upcoming spring market, is the artificial intelligence sector expected to receive more policy incentives?
A:As the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to be reviewed and approved during the National Two Sessions in 2026. This may have a catalyzing effect on policy in various fields including artificial intelligence, thus the artificial intelligence sector may potentially see more policy support.
Q:In the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, what attention and policy dividends has the field of artificial intelligence received?
A:The 14th Five-Year Plan clearly states the goal of promoting the integrated development of industry, science and technology, and talent, and identifies artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, quantum computing, and other areas as important directions. The plan emphasizes driving high-quality development with advanced productive forces, bringing significant policy dividends to the artificial intelligence sector. Specifically, this is manifested in the accelerated commercialization and application of cutting-edge technologies such as AI intelligent bodies and multimodal applications, as well as domestic hard technology companies participating deeply in the domestic computing power industry chain under the strategic background of digital China and a network power. In the context of the complex global geopolitical environment, the logic of domestic substitution is strengthened to ensure technological security.
Q:In early 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued action guidelines on the integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. What are the key goals and tasks outlined in the guidelines?
A:By 2027, China will achieve safe and reliable supply of key core artificial intelligence technologies, with the industrial scale and empowerment level stably ranking among the top in the world. Key tasks include innovation in basic research, application replication and upgrading, breakthrough innovation in products, and cultivation of main subjects, focusing on promoting mutual empowerment between artificial intelligence technology and manufacturing industry. In particular, efforts will be made to promote the coordinated development of artificial intelligence chips, breakthrough core technologies in high-end training chips, edge reasoning chips, and artificial intelligence servers, support innovation in large model training and reasoning methods, cultivate industry large models, accelerate the empowerment of artificial intelligence in industrial mother machines, industrial robots, and cultivate terminals such as smartphones, computers, tablets, and smart homes.
Q:What are the characteristics of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF tracking the Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index?
A:The Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index has three major characteristics: high purity, high elasticity, and high precision. The index focuses on four major industries: electronic computers, communications, mechanical equipment, and household appliances. The component stocks of the index have high purity in their main business, especially in the electronic and computer sectors, with a weight as high as 90%. The median size of the index is 240 billion yuan, with small and medium market cap characteristics bringing high elasticity. The weight of the digital chip design industry in the index is 51%, reflecting the high level of technology of China's leading AI technology companies. The growth of the index's component stocks confirms the gradual improvement of China's position in the global semiconductor industry chain.
Q:What is the current valuation level of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index? Is it reasonable?
A:As of January 20th, the price-to-earnings ratio of the science and technology innovation board's artificial intelligence index is 157 times, although the absolute level is high, it has been adjusted and earnings upgraded compared to the peak in late August last year. The current valuation historical percentile is 56%, around the median, and the overall cost performance is relatively reasonable. Considering the high-speed growth nature of artificial intelligence technology stocks, using the PEG (price-to-earnings relative to earnings growth rate) valuation is more appropriate, with the index's PEG at about 1.85 times, lower than the generally considered overvalued standard (that is, PEG greater than 2), therefore, the valuation of enterprises in the artificial intelligence track of the science and technology innovation board may still be within a reasonable range.
Q:What are the advantages of regular investment?
A:The advantages of regular investment include: first, it can diversify market risk and reduce the overall investment costs; second, it lowers the investment threshold and is suitable for ordinary investors to participate in investments by regularly investing small amounts of money; third, it can overcome human weaknesses, reduce emotional operations, and avoid the loss risks brought by chasing highs and selling lows.
Q:Apart from systematic investment, what other investment strategies are suitable for investing in the Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF?
A:According to the market situation, a core-satellite investment strategy can be employed. When optimistic about the rising trend of a certain market sector or industry theme, the strategy mainly involves using core assets (such as broad-based indices, dividend indices, etc.) as a foundation, while also allocating a certain proportion of satellite assets (such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF or other high-growth sectors) to achieve a balance between risk and return, striving to enhance return resilience while controlling risk.
Q:How to adjust the proportion of core and satellite assets according to investor type?
A:Conservative investors may consider increasing the weighting of core assets to 60% to 80%, while aggressive investors may reduce the weighting of core assets and increase the allocation of satellite assets. Specific core assets may focus on Chinese core assets and products with industry balance, such as A50 ETF and A50ETF fund; satellite assets should pay attention to high-elasticity tracks like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF, as well as other industry-themed ETFs that are adjusted according to market conditions.
Q:How does grid trading strategy work?
A:The ETF grid trading strategy is based on market volatility, setting a series of buying and selling price points. When the market falls, buy in batches, and when it rises, sell in batches, achieving buying low and selling high, and selling high and buying low. The core of this strategy is to buy and sell in batches according to progressive ratios. The buying strategy is to buy more at low prices and less at high prices, while the selling strategy is to sell more at high prices and less at low prices. This can help dilute costs by buying more and selling less when the market is falling, and lock in profits by selling more and buying less when the market is rising, thereby alleviating timing pressure.
play
普通话
普通话
进入会议
1.0
0.5
0.75
1.0
1.5
2.0