正十五 · 共前行——平安基金2026年投资策略会
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会议摘要
Ping An Fund deepens its systematic, process-oriented, and engineering-operated operations, constructing a multi-team, multi-style, and multi-strategy product system covering fixed income, active equity, ETFs, etc., laying out in technology, cycle, and dividend directions, emphasizing quantitative strategies and the Hong Kong stock product line, bullish on investment opportunities such as AI, gold, copper, aluminum, etc. The market outlook for 2026 is for bond yields to rise, for the stock market, technology, and cycles to dance together, for the scale of fixed income products to reach new highs, for ETF toolified strategies to enhance asset allocation efficiency, and for a commitment to creating value together with investors.
会议速览
The event celebrates the 15th anniversary of the Ping An Fund, sharing the achievements of the investment research platform construction, discussing investment strategies in the equity market in 2026, and emphasizing seizing opportunities in an era of change.
On the occasion of its 15th anniversary, Ping An Fund shared its achievements and ideas in the construction of its investment research platform. Emphasizing the importance of long-term correct concepts, it highlighted the mutual achievement of talents and platforms, as well as the strategy of multiple teams, styles, and strategies to achieve the objective unity of research and the subjective diversity of investment. The platform empowers individuals, overcomes individual limitations, while maintaining individual characteristics, and pursues sustainable, attributable, and replicable investment management.
The strategy of constructing a multi-team, multi-style, and multi-strategy research system to deal with market fluctuations was discussed. This includes internal training and external recruitment of fund managers, a multi-style investment philosophy for selecting stocks across the entire market, a multi-strategy approach to thematic product layout, and the implementation of a four-frame mechanism to achieve research integration. Emphasis was placed on the importance of team collaboration, methodological unity, and individual characteristics, as well as product layout based on in-depth research, aimed at cultivating industry expert-level fund managers with the goal of outperforming industry indices.
The dialogue emphasized research and investment evaluation based on value contribution, with researcher assessment including simulated portfolios, key stock recommendations, and fund manager evaluation focusing on performance. Team collaboration is strengthened through morning meetings, weekly meetings, and promoting a culture of speaking the truth, in order to enhance individuals' capabilities. Significant results have been achieved in platform system construction, with multiple fund managers delivering impressive performance, pursuing a simple and efficient investment culture, and working towards achieving replicable long-term investment performance to safeguard the interests of shareholders.
In 2026, the market is expected to continue the trend of a slow bull market, benefiting from proactive macroeconomic policies, economic rebound, ample liquidity, and improvements in the external environment. The policy focus is shifting towards efficiency and structuring, with monetary policy maintaining moderate easing measures. The balance of supply and demand in domestic demand policies, and the profits of listed companies are expected to improve. In terms of liquidity, there is an increase in funds from residents, national team insurance funds, and foreign investment entering the market. The external environment is becoming more stable, and it is expected that the market will perform well.
The conversation discussed that in the next 26 years, the market's growth will rely more on profit drivers, with a focus on technology and cyclical investment clues. In terms of technology, AI investment continues to be hot, capital expenditures are accelerating, domestic substitution trends are evident, and rapid technological iteration supports the profitability of leading companies. Cyclical industries benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with specific analysis further elaborated by fund managers.
The dialogue focuses on investment opportunities in the pan-cycle field in 2026, emphasizing the investment potential of the chemical and metal industries due to supply constraints and mild demand recovery. It is expected that the cycle in 2026 will shift from a single industry dominance to diversified development, especially with the decrease in capital expenditure in the chemical industry and the tight balance of supply in the metal industry, creating a wide range of investment opportunities. Signs of rising commodity prices are beginning to emerge, indicating a potential for a widespread investment pattern in the future market.
Peace Fund shared the multi-team, multi-style, and multi-strategy product system built by the investment research platform, covering fixed income plus, actively managed equities, ETFs, and off-exchange indices, among other types. It focused on the investment strategies of fixed income plus products in a low interest rate environment and the market outlook for 2026, expecting bond funds to outperform 2025, the stock market to maintain a bull market, with significant investment opportunities in technology growth and cyclical sectors.
Ping An Fund's fixed income plus products are divided into four levels based on risk-return characteristics. The low volatility products have drawdowns controlled within 2% and equity allocations of less than 10%. FOF, as a fixed income plus structure, has the advantage of secondary risk diversification and diverse sources of income. In 2025, Ping An Fund launched ETF FOF, investing in bond ETFs to achieve low costs and T+0 valuation, enhancing investor trading efficiency. It is expected that this product will experience significant growth in 2026.
The plan is to launch fixed-income products managed by cooperation between the equity and fixed-income departments in 2026, aiming for positive returns, controlling drawdowns, and clear equity strategies, covering dividends, technology cycles, and quantitative directions. The active equity product system has been sorted into three levels, including full-market stock selection, thematic sectors, index enhancement, and absolute returns, refining styles such as growth, value, balanced, and thematic sectors such as technology and healthcare, improving fundamental and quantitative enhancement strategies.
Ping An Fund is based on in-depth industry research, layout artificial intelligence, robotics, innovative drugs and other theme funds, as well as new theme products such as cyclical, rare earth, aerospace and military industry. The focus is on building a Hong Kong stock product line, relying on technological and pharmaceutical research advantages, collaborating with brother companies within the group, covering dividend technology, pharmaceuticals, balanced growth and index enhanced products. It establishes a complete ETF product line, covering broad-based strategies, industry themes, overseas index enhancements and bond indices, promoting the application of ETF tools-based strategies.
The hotspots and controversies surrounding AI investments in 2026 were discussed, comparing them to historical revolutions in productivity. The rationality of the AI bubble theory was analyzed, pointing out that AI is still in its early stages of development. Emphasis was placed on AI as the essence of a productivity revolution, different from the attention economy of the internet. AI focuses more on the automation economy and will reshape the production structure of businesses in the future.
The dialogue delves into the future AI payment system will be driven by extreme demand, especially as IT companies adopt AI-driven decision-making systems, which will greatly increase computing power consumption. In global enterprise IT spending, the share of AI has reached a scale of 2-3 trillion, and it is expected that future demand will grow exponentially. Similar to the popularity of electricity, the use of AI will shift from skepticism to indispensability, with everyone unconsciously consuming a large number of tokens every day. In addition, the development of AI models is moving from exponential growth in parameters and computing power to overall improvement in computing power, storage, and interconnection systems to meet more complex computing needs.
The dialogue discussed the possibility of adding 2-3 layers to the storage industry to expand the system, emphasizing the trend of future computing power and storage being equally important. In response to the power shortage in North America, it was pointed out that domestic manufacturing has advantages in electricity, energy storage, and distribution facilities. It is predicted that the domestic computing power system will experience strong development, especially in 2026 when it is expected to become the "year of computing power". AI applications are divided into five development stages, currently in the early stages of the second layer, with broad development prospects in the future. Structural investment opportunities are significant in the next 1-2 years.
The conversation delved into the investment strategy for AI and cyclical sectors in 2026, emphasizing the supportive role of global easing policies on commodity prices. It specifically pointed out gold as an investment choice in the trend of de-dollarization, with its upward logic closely related to global debt growth and geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, it mentioned the marginal changes brought about by supply-side reforms in the midstream manufacturing industry, as well as the accelerated pace of global central banks' gold purchases, providing investors with a distant perspective on cyclicality.
Discussed how the price of copper is influenced by inadequate capital expenditures on the supply side, the aluminum industry shows high dividend potential due to tight supply and demand and stable cost center, and the lithium carbonate industry is expected to have lower volatility after experiencing a cycle, all three demonstrating strategic value and investment opportunities under geopolitical conflicts.
The discussion focused on the bottom characteristics of the real estate cycle in China and predicted that the real estate market will bottom out in the next year. At the same time, the coal and chemical industries were analyzed, with the belief that coal may see a slight recovery in the next 26 years, while the chemical industry is considered the most promising sector in the midstream manufacturing industry due to factors such as a decrease in capital expenditure on the supply side, historically low business sentiment, increased operating rates, and policy support.
The dialogue provides an in-depth analysis of the insurance and brokerage sectors in the financial services industry, pointing out that the insurance industry is performing strongly under the double benefit of debt pressures being relieved and investment returns increasing, while brokerages are benefiting from valuation repair and overseas business expansion in a slow bull market. In addition, although the rapid rise in the gold cycle has passed, there is still potential for the next two years, while the copper cycle is expected to continue for two years. The chemical industry is seen as an investment hotspot this year, and banks as long-term asset allocations are also worth paying attention to. Overall, the dialogue showcases investment opportunities and strategies in multiple industries.
The dialogue provides a detailed analysis of the wide-ranging fluctuations in the bond market and the prosperity of the equity market in 2025. It looks ahead to the fixed income and product strategies for 2026, emphasizing the importance of rational allocation of Class A and B assets, combined with a balanced selection of individual stocks and industries in a low interest rate environment. This strategy aims to achieve a balance between stable income and risk control, providing investors with absolute returns while managing drawdowns.
Discussed the importance of fund managers controlling drawdowns under trading discipline, introduced the investment strategy of the Ping An Hengze Partial Bond Hybrid Fund, including stock position control, credit bond investment, convertible bond asset allocation, and equity investment philosophy, emphasizing risk management and stock selection strategy under absolute return orientation.
The dialogue analyzed the economic outlook for 2026, indicating that infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, while consumption is expected to remain stable. However, the real estate sector lacks elasticity due to high inventory levels and weakened financing. Manufacturing investment faces the challenge of overcapacity, but anti-insular policies are expected to improve the mid-term supply-demand situation. Exports are expected to moderately decline before recovering again. In terms of inflation, both CPI and PPI show a trend of improvement, and the positive impact of anti-insular policies on inflation needs to be continuously monitored. Fiscal policy is expected to proactively support economic recovery.
The dialogue analyzed the prospects of the bond and equity markets in 2026, pointing out that the ten-year government bond yield will show an N-shaped trend, influenced by inflation recovery and policies. In terms of the equity market, it is expected that A-share earnings will improve, and incremental funding will continue to flow in, supporting market development.
The conversation points out that the stock market trend in 2026 remains optimistic, with a focus on growth-oriented AI, cyclical reversals such as new energy and chemical industries, and consumer sectors with obvious policy support. Although there is uncertainty in the consumer sector, the overall trend is positive, and it is recommended to patiently wait for the best investment opportunities.
Discussed about the overvaluation of the convertible bond market in 2026 but supported by tight supply and demand, predicting an N-shaped trend in government bond yields, optimistic stock market, and a strategy of increasing positions in convertible bonds during downturns.
A sharing session on the application of ETF tooling strategies delved into the role of ETFs in asset allocation, and how to achieve absolute and relative returns through ETFs. Starting from personal investment experiences, the speaker shared unique insights on ETF management and strategy application, emphasizing the important position of ETFs in the current asset management market and their future potential. The speaker also emphasized the importance of choosing a high-quality ETF management team, demonstrating a deep insight into industry development and forward-thinking.
Discussed the comprehensive layout of Ping An Fund's ETF, including more than 30 onshore and offshore products covering different risk preferences, with a special emphasis on technology and cyclical themes, as well as consideration of customer risk preferences, expected returns, holding period and other needs, aiming to provide customized investment solutions.
Discussed the bullish direction of the market in 2026, including the artificial intelligence and consumer electronics sectors of the technology industry, as well as upcoming ETF products such as the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology and Double Creation Semiconductor. Emphasized the trend towards finer granularity of ETF assets, recommended investment opportunities in upstream cyclical sectors such as industrial metals, rare metals, as well as pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and advanced manufacturing. Recommended broad-based ETFs such as A50, A500, and the Growth Enterprise Market, while in the bond market, they focused on free cash flow ETFs and corporate bond ETFs, with the latter being particularly favored due to new fee regulations and high pledge rates.
The discussion focused on the construction of a six-cell matrix for Ping An ETF based on customer risk preferences and time horizons, proposing four strategies to meet the investment needs of different sales channels. It highlighted the index investment concept with free cash flow index as the core, aiming to provide a stable and low-volatility fixed income solution through optimizing index compilation rules and introducing alpha factors, as an alternative to wealth management, to achieve absolute return goals.
Discussed dividend enhancement strategies, selecting dividend indexes based on risk budget and Sharpe ratio to achieve excess returns; introduced a broad-based rotation model to improve return stability through market timing based on market capitalization and style; shared industry thematic research to provide strategic outputs to enhance customer stickiness.
The report focuses on the reasons for Ping An Fund's selection of ETFs, emphasizing the importance of cultural identity and the synergy of group resources. Through internal resources such as Ping An Life Insurance's MoM and cross-departmental communication, we accurately capture the direction of large funds, refine strategies to meet the needs of institutional investors. The goal is to use ETF tools to achieve personalized investment preferences, looking ahead to deepening our presence in the field of passive index investing in the future, and striving to provide investors with professional services and value creation.
要点回答
Q:How does Ping An Fund build its research platform? What is Ping An Fund's investment strategy outlook for 2026?
A:The construction of Ping An Fund's research platform mainly revolves around three strategies. Firstly, we establish the concept of "doing the right thing in the long term", emphasizing the sustainability, attributability, and replicability of investments. Secondly, we achieve mutual achievement between talent and platform through the "two drivers", which means talent leads the development of the platform and the platform empowers personal growth. Finally, we construct a research system of "multiple teams, multiple styles, multiple strategies" to deal with market fluctuations. By combining internal training and external recruitment, we aim to build an excellent team of fund managers, for example, Huawei, Zhang Xiaoquan, etc. For the year 2026, Ping An Fund believes that the market will continue to show a slow bull trend. This outlook is based on the overall impact of factors such as economic recovery, positive policies, ample liquidity, and gradual improvement in the external environment. We expect these positive factors to collectively drive the continuation of the slow bull market.
Q:What achievements has Ping An Fund made in the past 15 years in the construction of research and investment platform?
A:Since its establishment, Ping An Fund has been committed to the construction of an investment research platform, especially since 2018, and has achieved significant results. We have established the concept of "doing the right thing in the long term" and created an open and inclusive research system that encourages individual characteristics and team collaboration through the dual drive of "talent and platform mutually achieving" and the three strategies of "multiple teams, multiple styles, and multiple strategies". In addition, we have established four mechanisms - the increase mechanism (a transparent and fair evaluation mechanism), the true team (a cooperation model with diversified styles complementing each other), the true talent (a talent selection mechanism guided by performance), and the true culture of speaking out (encouraging independent thinking and candid working atmosphere), these mechanisms effectively guarantee the implementation of integrated investment research.
Q:In 2026, how will macroeconomic policies affect the profitability of listed companies?
A:In 2026, it is expected that macroeconomic policies will continue to exert force. Fiscal policy will remain proactive and focus on pacing and sustainability, while monetary policy will maintain moderate looseness to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price increases. It will transition from being supportive to actively stabilizing growth, and may flexibly use tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions. In addition, the focus of domestic demand policies will shift from the supply side to demand side balance, stimulating domestic demand to change the current situation of strong supply and weak demand, which will help improve the profit situation of listed companies.
Q:How is the situation in terms of liquidity?
A:In the future, liquidity will continue to increase as more funds pour into the market. The enthusiasm of residents to enter the market has increased, and the decrease in risk-free return rates has enhanced the attractiveness of the equity market. State-owned funds, insurance funds, and other long-term funds entering the market, as well as the possibility of more active entry of foreign funds. These funds will become important sources of incremental funds for the A-share market in 2026.
Q:What investment opportunities are there in the technology sector?
A:Investment opportunities in the technology sector mainly focus on two performance-driven clues: first, continued attention to the investment boom in the AI field and the growth of capital expenditure; second, a combination of domestic self-controllable semiconductor substitution and AI demand may present widespread investment opportunities by 2026.
Q:What are the expectations for market trends in 2026?
A:It is expected that the market will continue to show a slow bull trend in 2026. In terms of structure, the focus is on two main lines: technology and cyclical industries. In the technology sector, especially in the field of AI, there will be significant investment opportunities due to the continuous improvement of model capabilities and positive commercial trends. In the cyclical sector, due to the continuous contraction of capital expenditures in recent years, slowing capacity expansion, and the increase in industry gross profit margins brought about by policies against internal competition, investments in cyclical industries are expected to move from a monopoly position to a diversified market.
Q:What are some investment clues in the cyclical sector?
A:In the cyclical field, the focus is on industries with supply constraints, strong demand, and a moderate recovery cycle. The macroeconomy is in the stage of bottoming out and rebounding, with a significant decrease in capital expenditures in the chemical industry, which is sensitive to macroeconomic price signals and is a good choice. At the same time, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum also have good investment opportunities due to tight supply and demand relationships.
Q:How is the fixed income plus product system of Ping An Fund divided, and what are the current management team members? What is the size and development of the fixed income plus products?
A:The fixed income plus product system of Ping An Fund is mainly divided into three categories according to risk from low to high: fixed income plus active equity, ETF, and over-the-counter index. In terms of fixed income plus products, there are currently fixed income department, mixed asset investment department, and FOF department managing them, with the fixed income department and mixed asset investment department mainly responsible for the operation of fixed income plus products. It is expected that in 2026, a tool-type fixed income plus product jointly managed by the equity investment department and the fixed income department will be launched. According to Guotai Junan's research report, as of the end of 2025, the total number of fixed income plus products in the market, including primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, bond hybrid, and flexible allocation categories, with a history of more than one year, exceeded 1,100, with a total scale of about 2.2 trillion; if products with less than one year of establishment are considered, the scale of fixed income plus products has exceeded 2.5 trillion. In 2025, the performance of fixed income plus products was good, with the median return of secondary bond funds at 4.57%, maximum drawdown of only 1.68, and a Sharpe ratio exceeding 2%.
Q:How are active equity products allocated and managed?
A:In terms of active equity products, they are managed by the Equity Investment Department and the Strategic Investment Department. The Equity Investment Department focuses on stock selection across the entire market, thematic products, and absolute return strategies, while the Strategic Investment Department focuses on the investment management of index enhancement products and active quantitative products.
Q:What are the performance expectations for fixed income products in 2026?
A:It is expected that in 2026, under the loose monetary policy background, overall performance of bond funds will be better than in 2025; the stock market is likely to maintain a bullish trend, with good investment opportunities in technology growth and cyclical sectors. Ping An Fund's fixed income plus products will be classified into four categories (low volatility, medium-low volatility, medium volatility, and high volatility) based on risk-return characteristics, and managed according to maximum drawdown and equity asset allocation for each category.
Q:How does Ping An Fund optimize its fixed-income plus investment strategy using FOF products? What are some of the innovative attempts by Ping An Fund in the field of fixed-income plus products?
A:Ping An Fund was the first company in the industry to launch fixed income plus strategy FOF products. The advantages of FOF products lie in the diversification of risks and the diversification of sources of income, which can invest in various asset classes such as bonds, commodities (including gold, Reits), and overseas assets. For different FOF products, different strategies will be formulated according to the types of equity assets, and FOF products have flexibility in asset allocation. Ping An Fund will launch ETF FOF products in 2026, with investment in ETFs as the main tool, such as Ping An Yinxuan, Yinshun, Yinan, and other three products. These products are mainly based on bond ETFs, supplemented by equity and ETF enhancement, compared to traditional FOF products, they have the advantages of low underlying costs, high T+0 valuation, and high efficiency in subscription and redemption. In addition, a tool-type fixed income plus product will be launched, cooperatively managed by the equity department and fixed income department, mainly focusing on dividend, technology cycle, quantitative and other four directions to design product strategies.
Q:How is the three-level directory of Ping An Fund's active equity products constructed?
A:Ping An Fund has built a three-level directory for active equity products. The first level includes three major types: market-wide active stock selection, thematic track index enhancement, and absolute return. The second level further subdivides into growth value, balanced style, and thematic tracks such as technology, medicine, dividends, cycles, and consumer goods. The third level details the specific product designs under each subdirectory, forming a comprehensive and professional system of active equity products.
Q:How does Ping An Fund view and strategize its investment in Hong Kong stocks?
A:Ping An Fund relies on its own research and investment advantages in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, as well as the strength of the joint efforts with Ping An Asset Management Hong Kong, to create a complete Hong Kong stock product line, including dividend technology, pharmaceuticals, balanced growth, and index-enhanced products. Among them, the Hang Seng Index Enhancement is the first domestic Hong Kong stock broad-based index enhancement product, and the ETF product line already covers a variety of types such as broad-based strategies, industry themes, overseas, index enhancement, and bond indexes.
Q:In 2026, how do you view whether there is a bubble in the AI field, and what similarities does it have with historical productivity revolutions?
A:We believe it is still too early to discuss whether an AI bubble exists. In the early stages of every historical revolution in productivity, such as the steam engine revolution and the electricity revolution, people also felt a sense of bubble. At that time, global railway construction accounted for 4% to 6% of GDP, and peak electricity investment may have reached 6% to 10% of GDP. It is currently estimated that global AI investment will reach around $600 billion by 2026, a relatively low percentage of GDP, with the potential to reach 4% to 5% in the long term, exceeding $43 trillion. Therefore, from a historical perspective, the current AI infrastructure construction is still in the early to middle stages.
Q:Why didn't you include the internet in this discussion?
A:We see the internet as a revolution in information flow rather than a revolution in productivity, because it mainly reshapes the way people interact and connect with each other, rather than changing the way of production. AI, on the other hand, is replacing and generating new labor and productivity, with its core value being to create paid services for enterprise users and reshape the production architecture of companies.
Q:What are the characteristics of the future AI payment system?
A:The future AI payment system will be more inclined towards enterprise applications, providing services to enterprises through automated processes rather than just as chat tools. Currently, many enterprises are running AI-led decision systems that have a huge demand for computing power. About 2 to 3 trillion yuan is allocated for AI in existing enterprise IT expenditure, and with the growth of replacement of existing systems and new demands, investment in AI will experience an exponential surge.
Q:What are the new logical changes in the field of AI?
A:The development trend of AI models is shifting from exponential growth of parameters and GPU computing power to focusing on computing power, storage, and networking systems as a whole. As the algorithmic process generates a large amount of storage demand, the increase in data volume will drive the increase in network bandwidth, indicating that the storage industry will usher in new investment opportunities.
Q:How is the development of the domestic computing power system?
A:Although the development of domestic computing power has lagged behind in the past, the prospects are optimistic this year, especially for domestically produced computing power. It is expected that in the future, there will be a large cycle of capital expenditure similar to North America, although the amount may be different. The strong engineering team in China can effectively reduce computing power consumption, overall driving strong growth. 2026 will be the first year of computing power development.
Q:In the macroeconomic narrative of 2026, what role will the cyclical sectors play, and what structural investment opportunities will exist?
A:In 2026, global policies are in a period of double easing, with deficits expanding in major economies such as Europe, the United States, and China. The overall monetary policy is moderately loose, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 2 to 3 times next year. Against this background, prices of cyclical commodities are supported. Among them, gold is worth paying attention to as an investment, especially considering the situation where US debt has doubled in the past decade and the price of gold has not risen significantly. Under the current trend of de-dollarization, the increasing speed of central bank gold purchases and changes in global residents' gold ETF investments all indicate that gold is likely to usher in a new bull market. Copper and aluminum are also promising directions, as insufficient capital spending on the supply side leads to supply rigidity, and when demand improves slightly, price elasticity will be reflected. The electrolytic aluminum industry is in a tight supply-demand situation, with high profits and potential for high dividends and growth, making it suitable for value investments. Minor metals such as lithium carbonate, elevated to the status of a strategic metal in the face of geopolitical conflicts, may see lower industry volatility in the future, presenting a reversal opportunity.
Q:For the real estate market, when do you think it will hit bottom?
A:Based on reference data from Japan and the United States, as well as the rental-to-sale ratio in first-tier and third-tier cities, we believe that the Chinese real estate market may still have a further decline of 10 to 15 percentage points, with a high probability of experiencing a final drop this year or next year. In addition, for industries such as coal and the black sector, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see attitude as infrastructure and real estate have not shown clear signs of stabilization. On the other hand, the chemical industry is showing a significant decrease in capital expenditure on the supply side and it has reached a turning point in its cycle, making it a more favorable sector to consider.
Q:How is the business situation in the chemical industry, and what evidence supports this view?
A:The prosperity of the chemical industry is currently at the bottom position, with four main pieces of evidence: First, the price difference of the entire industry is at its lowest level in history; second, except for cultural products, the prices and price differences of other chemical products have generally been in the bottom 30% percentile in the past ten years; third, some chemical products such as glyphosate, urea, and other products have operating rates reaching 70%-80%, indicating upward conditions; fourth, the policy subsidies have led to the clearing of the supply side, which will catalyze a reversal of the industry's prosperity.
Q:Why is the insurance sector the most promising part of the financial services industry?
A:There are two aspects to the optimistic logic of the insurance sector: on the one hand, the pressure on the liability side of insurance companies is gradually being released, with a decrease in the benchmark interest rate, an increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, and good performance in the equity market leading to a higher investment yield, resulting in a decrease in the cost of liabilities and an increase in investment income; on the other hand, household savings are accelerating entering the insurance and wealth management market, with premiums, liabilities, and equity sides all showing positive trends.
Q:What is your opinion on the securities brokerage sector?
A:Under the slow bull market, the brokerage sector has experienced valuation repair. With policy-driven leverage ratio increases, top brokerage firms have reduced costs and improved efficiency through integration. They are also expanding their overseas businesses. It is expected that the return on equity (ROE) level will exceed 10% in the future. Therefore, benefiting from the slow bull market in the equity market, the brokerage sector has good prospects and investment value.
Q:What is the outlook for the future of the precious metals, chemicals, and insurance sectors?
A:Despite experiencing a rapid increase in recent times, the precious metals sector is expected to see a slowdown in the slope, with the growth rate of gold prices expected to decrease. The copper sector is predicted to have a two-year cycle, currently in the high dividend asset phase, showing potential for growth. The chemical industry sector is expected to have many opportunities this year, and the insurance sector is favored due to the increase in prosperity on the liability side, asset side, and premium income.
Q:What is the investment strategy of fixed income plus products in 2026?
A:Fixed-income products showed steady growth in 2025, reaching a record high in terms of scale. For 2026, we will adjust our investment strategy flexibly according to market conditions to ensure pursuing absolute returns with controllable drawdowns. In terms of asset allocation, we will mainly focus on high dividend assets (Class A) and assets with high EPS growth rates (Class B), while selecting individual stocks that prioritize valuation protection and safety margins, and controlling drawdowns strictly through disciplined profit-taking and stop-loss measures. Specifically for products like Ping An Hengze, the stock position will be maintained at 20% to 30%, and steady returns will be achieved through rigorous risk management.
Q:What are your predictions for the broad deficit ratio next year?
A:We expect the overall general deficit rate to increase next year, as the fiscal stance is leaning towards being more proactive and aggressive. The Ministry of Finance has made related statements, and in 2026 as the first year of the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan", there is usually a strong emphasis on front-loading efforts. Additionally, although the increase in the deficit rate compared to last year may be relatively low, there is a possibility of an increase in fiscal expenditures that can generate tangible work, which will provide support for infrastructure restoration in 2026.
Q:What are the main points to focus on in terms of consumption next year? What are the focuses for investment in the manufacturing industry?
A:The main focus of consumption next year will be on service consumption and government consumption. Due to weak internal dynamics, weak employment and consumption willingness, physical consumption will also be affected by the high base of last year. However, supported by service consumption and government consumption, it is expected that consumption in 2026 will remain relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the problem of anti-reflux in manufacturing investment. Currently, overcapacity leads to a decrease in product prices, suppressing corporate profits and ROE levels. The policy of bundled vouchers introduced by the decision-making level will help improve the supply and demand structure in the medium term, but in the short term, it will suppress investment, which is necessary to suppress supply and demand imbalances.
Q:How is the export situation?
A:It is expected that exports will modestly decline in 2026, initially decreasing before increasing, with a gradual recovery pace. Considering factors such as the leading nature from M1 to PPI, marginal improvements in the intermediate supply and demand pattern, as well as inflation expectations, the export situation is relatively optimistic, but attention should still be paid to the impact of anti-inner looping on inflation.
Q:What is your opinion on the bond market?
A:The expected 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to trend upwards in the next 26 years, waiting for validation of the fundamental factors. The pace shows an N-shaped trend. The rise in interest rates is mainly based on deflation expectations and the easing of supply and demand contradictions brought about by anti-internal circulation efforts. At the same time, increased risk appetite and deposit relocation will also have an impact on the bond market.
Q:How is the overall profit trend in the A-share market?
A:It is expected that the earnings of A-shares will continue to improve in 2026, with the overall A-share earnings expected to be 8.2%, and the growth rate of non-financial equity earnings expected to be 10.6%. The overall earnings center is expected to rise compared to 2025. In addition, it is expected that the scale of incremental funds entering the market will exceed 900 billion, the trend of moving savings will continue, bringing incremental funds to the market.
Q:What are the main trends in the equity market for 2026?
A:The main themes of the equity market in 2026 include growth categories (such as AI), cyclic reversal categories (such as new energy and chemical industry repair based on PPI), and consumer sectors with obvious policy support. At the same time, the direction of consumer repair is also worth paying attention to.
Q:What is the valuation situation in the convertible bond market, and how do you see it in the future?
A:Currently, convertible bond valuations and prices are in a relatively high position, but the supply and demand situation is tight. There is a high probability of a decrease in supply, and the development of fixed income products has brought about additional demand for convertible bond allocations. There is still room for improvement in the proportion of convertible bonds in the existing fixed income product allocation, so they still provide support for the convertible bond market.
Q:What is your opinion on the bond market for the year 2026?
A:The expected yield of 10-year government bonds in 2026 is expected to trend upwards, with an overall N-shaped trend for the year. Stock assets have an optimistic outlook on the stock market in 2026, with growth and cyclical sectors dancing together. Focus on the evolution of industrial trends, the recovery of PPR, and opportunities in consumption. Although convertible bond assets are slightly overvalued, supply and demand dynamics provide support, and more attention should be paid to buying opportunities after short-term liquidity shocks.
Q:What is the layout and strategic application of ETFs in Ping An Fund?
A:Ping An Fund currently has more than thirty onshore and offshore ETF products, covering the first batch of A50, A500 dividend, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and other ETFs, as well as the first smart beta bond ETF in the market. Looking ahead to the market in 2026, we are optimistic about the technology industry chain (such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics), the Hong Kong stock technology, the innovation of semiconductor and robotics, general aviation, satellites, and other segmented areas, and actively looking to allocate investment opportunities in upstream cyclical industries such as industrial metals, rare metals, etc.
Q:What are the ETF products mainly recommended by Ping An Fund on the broad base, and why are they recommended? Why choose the free cash flow index for investment, and how to manage the drawdown risk?
A:We mainly recommend styles such as A50, A500, and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) board, which are more balanced, especially for ETF products that lean towards the growth market. In addition, we also focus on recommending ETFs based on selecting stocks with free cash flow, such as the Free Cash Flow ETF managed by me. Compared to easily replicable stock selection strategies such as low volatility dividends, the stock selection method and effectiveness of free cash flow are difficult to replicate. Quarterly rebalancing can achieve stock rotation of up to 30%-40%, making it a good tool for enhancing investments in value and dividend fields in 2026. The Free Cash Flow Index is positioned between low volatility dividends and broad-based indices, retaining value characteristics, with a portfolio more focused on cyclical and dividend industries, excluding financial and real estate sectors. We not only use constant proportion stock-bond investments for risk budgeting and evaluation, but also optimize the index by adjusting rebalancing periods to capture more effective data, and incorporating more efficient factors into the free cash flow rate calculations to enhance overall index performance.
Q:Besides the above-mentioned broad-based products, what other distinctive ETF recommendations does Ping An Fund have?
A:We have the CSI A500 Dividend Low Volatility ETF, which has shown enhanced performance in the industry and in terms of returns compared to traditional dividend low volatility products; the upcoming Hang Seng Stock Connect Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF has the highest dividend yield among all Hong Kong dividend products, making it highly attractive to institutional and individual investors. Additionally, our corporate bond ETF has a size close to 40 billion due to the new fee redemption regulations, making it a great tool for clients who prefer off-exchange bond funds, with a high collateral ratio of up to 63% allowing for leveraged investments through secondary collateralization.
Q:How does Ping An Fund construct investment strategies based on customer risk preferences and time periods? What considerations does Ping An Fund have when choosing investment strategies outside of broad-based themes?
A:We have built a 6-grid for a safe ETF, targeting three types of customers with low, medium, and high risk preferences, forming four investment strategies corresponding to underlying asset-specific fixed income pursuit, value enhancement based on dividend allocation, rotation strategy based on broad base, and industry thematic investment services to meet the investment needs of different sales channels. For industry thematic investment, we focus on quantitative and qualitative views in areas such as AI artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, aviation, and aerospace, providing strategic outputs for active traders to enhance customer stickiness. At the same time, relying on internal resources of Ping An Group and communication with other institutional investors, we can timely grasp market trends and optimize product layout.
Q:How is the investment strategy of dividend enhancement achieved?
A:By analyzing the excess returns of different dividend indices (such as CSI A500 Dividend, Low Volatility Free Cash Flow, and SOE Win-Win, etc.) relative to the CSI Dividend, and formulating a risk budget based on the Sharpe ratio, a dividend enhancement strategy is implemented through monthly rebalancing and risk-based positioning. In the long run, this approach is more effective than manually setting CVPI or hard stops, and currently, this strategy has achieved significant excess returns.
Q:How to effectively time the broad-based investment field?
A:In broad-based investments, we focus on market capitalization (large cap vs small cap) and style (growth vs value) which are relatively stable factors with high timing tolerance. By monitoring fund flows, momentum strategies, and other differentiated fund flow data, we construct a timing model for rotating between large and small caps and growth and value styles, ultimately achieving effective allocation of long-term funds and obtaining rotation alpha.
Q:Why can Ping An Fund stand out among many fund companies and become the preferred partner for institutional investors?
A:Ping An Fund relies on the strong background of Ping An Group, not only has rich experience in insurance sales, but also can leverage the group's internal investment decision-making and external communication to achieve a deep understanding and precise connection to the needs of institutional investors. Through continuous innovation and optimization of ETF strategies, Ping An Fund is committed to becoming the most understanding ETF team for institutional investors, using ETF tools to help clients achieve investment goals and risk preferences.

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