快辑半导体 (QUIK.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Conference call highlights QuickLogic's Q3 FY25 earnings, strategic FPGA progress, and 2026 revenue expectations. Revenue from storefront initiatives is forecasted to contribute 10% of total revenue, driven by defense modernization and hypersonic projects. The company invests in FPGA and ASIC technologies, aiming for technology readiness level 5. Opex is targeted at $3.5M/qtr, with potential for hundreds of millions in revenue from initiatives. Challenges include managing large IP contracts and revenue recognition timing. Engagement with stakeholders at upcoming events is planned.
会议速览
The dialogue discusses QuickLogic's third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, highlighting forward-looking statements regarding future profitability, cash flows, and product market acceptance. It also covers non-GAAP financial measures, emphasizing the risks and uncertainties associated with new product introductions, market conditions, and competition.
The company highlights its achievements in securing strategic design wins, accelerating storefront revenue, and expanding market reach for high-density FPGA designs. With a focus on advanced fabrication processes, they anticipate surpassing NRE revenue with license revenue for the first time. Notably, they've invested in an SRH FPGA test chip, which is pivotal for securing large defense and commercial contracts, potentially pushing revenue to $6 million for Q3, contingent on a $3 million commercial contract award.
Despite funding delays, a significant contract is anticipated for a high-density FPGA IP project. Multiple contracts, including a feasibility study and test chips, have been secured, showcasing success in advanced fabrication nodes. Strategic partnerships in cybersecurity and defense sectors highlight the growing value of FPGA IP in critical applications. Revenue from storefront opportunities and digital FPGA chiplet POCs is expected to accelerate, with evaluation kits planned for late 2026.
Q3 revenue was $2 million, down significantly from previous quarters, with a negative non-GAAP gross margin. Q4 guidance is set between $3.5 million to $6 million, contingent on contract awards. The dialogue highlights industry trends boosting FPGA technology interest, emphasizing tangible progress and strategic preparation for potential cash flow impacts.
The dialogue highlights the pivotal role of efPGA in modern ASIC designs, focusing on its advantages for smart systems, enhanced security, and adaptability to evolving algorithms. It discusses the increasing need for efPGA in sophisticated designs, its contribution to longer product lifecycles, and cost-effective development. Additionally, the importance of environmental compliance and the strategic value of internal FPGA test chip development are emphasized, underscoring the company's commitment to innovation and defense technologies.
A discussion on the effects of the government shutdown on business operations, noting no project cancellations but delays in new programs due to furloughed workers. Confidence in the rebound of strategic radiation FGA programs is expressed, emphasizing the ongoing demand for programmable logic in defense systems and the expectation of continued funding once the government resumes full operations.
A detailed outlook on achieving a 10% increase in storefront revenue by 2026 through strategic initiatives, focusing on defense system modernization, hypersonics, and golden dome programs. The discussion highlights the demand for radiation-tolerant components, dev kits, and the potential for significant revenue growth by Q1.
Discusses the strategic importance of 12nm process for FPGA and ASIC development, emphasizing IP licensing, revenue potential, and capability gains. Compares opportunities with different foundries, highlighting the larger potential of 12nm over older geometries due to increased transistor density and functionality, which can significantly reduce customer development costs.
The company is preparing for a substantial shipment of development kits to customers, aiming for a significant revenue impact. Customers are expected to engage with the kits, facilitating design cycles for product development, with the company investing in ample resources for testing and prototyping.
The dialogue explores the cautious evaluation process in a risk-averse community, emphasizing the importance of rigorous testing to reach Technology Readiness Level 5. It discusses strategic hiring, financial planning, and customer-funded investments to support product development and market entry, aiming for efficient resource allocation and customer engagement.
Revenue guidance for Q4 is contingent on the timing of a significant order, potentially leading to a 3.5 million or 6 million revenue outcome. The speaker explains that if the order is received late in Q4, only partial revenue might be recognized, whereas earlier receipt would allow for full recognition, influencing the high end of the revenue forecast.
The current outstanding share count is discussed, with a forecasted total of 25,200,000 shares expected by 2025.
The dialogue explains the significant revenue decline from 2024 to 2025, attributed to the shifting of large IP contracts into subsequent years, particularly highlighting a $3 million contract moving from 2025 to 2026. The conversation also touches on the impact of high-value contracts on revenue smoothness and concludes with an invitation to upcoming industry events, showcasing the company's engagement with the semiconductor community.
要点回答
Q:What potential revenue growth could result from the upcoming contract forecasts?
A:The potential revenue growth could be substantial, with an objective set for a $1 million dollar realization in Q4 if a significant contract is awarded as forecasted. The company has a high level of confidence in winning this contract, which could otherwise push into Q1 2026 affecting Q4 revenue figures.
Q:What is the significance of the SRH FPGA test chip in the company's strategy?
A:The SRH FPGA test chip is critical to the company's strategy as it aids in securing strategic design wins and accelerating the storefront business model. The demonstration of the test chip is expected to increase enthusiasm and accelerate order commitments from defense and industrial base entities. It also enables the company to showcase the capability of its eFPGA hard IP for ASIC applications and meets program requirements ranging from radiation tolerance to strategic radiation-hardening.
Q:What differentiates the company's offering in the defense and semiconductor device market?
A:The company differentiates its offering by being the only source for strategic radiation-resistant FPGAs and eFPGA hard IP that is fabricated in the U.S. by a U.S. company, as per government contracts requiring onshore fabrication. The company's capability to design with the Aurora FPGA user tools for both SRH discrete FPGAs and eFPGA hard IP in AICC designs is also emphasized as a significant advantage.
Q:How will the revenue recognition from the current and upcoming tranches affect the company's financials?
A:Revenue recognition from the current tranche is expected to be low in Q3, with a significant rebound in Q4 and an increase in quarterly revenue recognition in 2026 funded by the next tranche.
Q:What customer specific IP has the company already delivered, and when is the next allocation of test ships expected?
A:The company has already delivered customer-specific eFPGA heart IP for the customer's first Intel 18 A test ship. An allocation of test ships from a previous contract is expected during Q1 2026 for internal verification and characterization, and a mid A six-figure contract for a second Intel At test chip was also awarded.
Q:What is the new feasibility contract and what is its purpose?
A:The new feasibility contract is for a 1 million less feasibility study that is scheduled for delivery next week. It aims to enable the customer to tape out a very high-density in late 2026. The architectural changes implemented in this feasibility study can be leveraged across all advanced fabrication nodes down to 12 nm, significantly expanding the market for eFPGA hard IP and discrete devices.
Q:What is the Digital Proof of Concept Shiplet program and what is its current status?
A:The Digital Proof of Concept Shiplet program is a strategy to accelerate the storefront shiplet initiative. The initial phase of the digital FPGA Shiplet POC, which connects eFPGA IP to UIE IP and interface logic, has been completed. This phase is now available for further development to meet different customer requirements and is engaging with prospective customers across various markets.
Q:What is the new $1 million eFPGA hard IP contract about?
A:The new $1 million eFPGA hard IP contract is for a high-performance data center ASIC fabricated on TSMC's 12 nm process. The contract highlights the need for larger blocks of eFPGA, the increasing value of eFPGA in customer designs, winning contracts for advanced fabrication processes, and growing success in commercial market sectors.
Q:What is the expansion of the company's involvement with Adib?
A:The company is expanding its involvement with Adib, which specializes in cybersecurity for strategic and tactical weapons systems. The company will provide Adib with eFPGA hard IP for their secure system-on-chip processors, emphasizing the enhanced security only eFPGA can provide.
Q:What is the recent contract with the defense industrial base customer and what will it involve?
A:The company has entered into an eFPGA hard IP contract with a new defense industrial base customer valued at $1.1 million, which will be fabricated on the GF 1LAP process. This contract involves utilizing a large block of eFPGA hard IP for critical functions, and the company will provide test chips for an evaluation kit compatible with common third-party development environments.
Q:What is the financial performance and position of the company for the third quarter?
A:The company's total third-quarter revenue was $2 million, aligned with the midpoint of guidance. New product revenue was $1 million, mature product revenue was $1.1 million, non-GAAP gross margin was -11.9%, non-GAAP operating expenses were approximately $2.9 million, and non-GAAP net loss was $3.2 million or 19 cents per diluted share. At the end of Q3, total cash was $17.3 million, inclusive of $15 million from a $20 million credit facility.
Q:What is the expected total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter and what factors could affect it?
A:The expected total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter is $6 billion. Factors that could affect it include the potential contract award of nearly $3 million for a commercial application which could be awarded late in the quarter, impacting the revenue recognition for that period.
Q:What are the expected non GAAP gross margin and non GAAP operating expenses for Q4?
A:The expected non GAAP gross margin for Q4 is approximately 45% at $3.5 million of revenue and 68% at $6 million of revenue. The non GAAP operating expenses for Q4 are expected to be approximately $3 million plus or -5%.
Q:What is the projected non GAAP net loss and earnings per share for Q4?
A:The projected non GAAP net loss for Q4 is approximately $1.9 million for a loss of 11 cents per share at the low end of the revenue range, and a non GAAP net profit of approximately $600,000 or 4 cents per share at the high end of the revenue range.
Q:What industry trends are driving the increased interest in FPGA technology?
A:The industry trends driving the increased interest in FPGA technology include smart systems that rely on algorithms for intelligence, which can be processed faster and with lower power consumption in hardware. Hardware is also more secure against cyber threats. Additionally, sophisticated smart systems designs target advanced fabrication nodes, requiring longer life cycles, adaptability to changing algorithms, and environmental compliance.
Q:How does the use of EFPGA in ASIC designs benefit the design life cycle and program managers?
A:The use of EFPGA in ASIC designs benefits the design life cycle and program managers by providing adaptability to changing algorithms, evolving functional requirements, and external changes, thus lengthening the life cycle of ASIC designs. This flexibility allows program managers to move ASICs to production more quickly and with lower risk, which shortens design cycles and lowers development costs.
Q:What is the purpose of the internally funded development of an SRH FPGA test chip?
A:The purpose of the internally funded development of an SRH (SRI International) FPGA test chip is to address a range of environmental requirements from radiation tolerance to strategic compliance. This development is designed to accelerate design wins and optimize the company's position in discrete FPGA designs, using the same onshore 12nm fabrication process as used for SRI's ASICs.
Q:What does the speaker say about the long-term demand for programmable logic in the defense sector?
A:The speaker notes that programmable logic has been a significant part of the defense industrial base for decades and this demand is not changing, with approximately 75% of defense systems incorporating programmable logic and a large percentage of the total semiconductor spend by the DoD.
Q:Is there funding certainty for current programs based on current budgets?
A:The speaker indicates that there are no delays with current programs on contract and if there's a delay in funding, the company is prepared with cash reserves. If there's no delay, they anticipate good positive cash flow for the quarter.
Q:What impact have government furloughs had on new development program contracts?
A:The speaker notes that new Rfis, rfss, or Rfps from the government for various development programs were paused due to furloughs. However, they do not anticipate these delays being permanent and expect that once government funding is restored and people return from furlough, the programs will resume.
Q:What is the expected range for storefront revenue in 2026 and what factors could drive upside or downside to these expectations?
A:The speaker anticipates that the storefront revenue associated with developments discussed will be significant, targeting a range around 10% of total revenue without providing an exact number. Factors driving upside include strong demand for their technology and projects under development, public interest in strategic defense system modernization, and the need for radiation tolerance in various programs. Downside could be driven by factors not specified in the transcript.
Q:What opportunities exist for FPGAs versus ASICs with the new GDF Hastelloy process and how do the timing dynamics differ?
A:The GDF Hastelloy process allows for the development of FPGAs and ASICs. For 12 o'clock process, which is commonly used by the defense industrial base, there is a significant amount of available IP and test data due to government funding. This process is known to be risk-averse and well-understood, which is beneficial for creating ASICs and FPGAs. The company plans to license their IP for ASIC development, which could lead to back-end royalty opportunities. In the near term, they aim to monetize these opportunities to generate several million dollars a year. For devices, the introduction of a strategic Red Hart FPGA could provide a significant step function increase in revenue potential due to higher average selling prices (ASP) compared to royalties. The strategy involves licensing the technology broadly and capturing revenue from this strategic Red Hart FPGA.
Q:What are the relative sizes of the opportunities presented by Gfs 12 LP and the other founders compared to the opportunity with the new 12nm process?
A:Brian believes that the opportunity with the 12nm process, due to its strategic nature and IP licensing options, is a larger opportunity compared to Gfs 12 LP and other founders' projects. The 12nm process allows for denser transistors and higher functionality, increasing the value of the parts. He highlights the potential to address customer needs without requiring a custom ASIC, which could save the customer or government significant development costs and time.
Q:What is the strategic importance of the 12nm process for the new dev kits?
A:The strategic importance of the 12nm process for the new dev kits lies in the capability to implement a lot of functionality on the FPGAs, potentially allowing customers to avoid the need for custom ASICs. This can result in significant cost savings and development time reduction for the government and customers. The process enables high capability on the FPGAs, which is expected to lead to substantial revenue generation for the company.
Q:How many development kits and customers does the company expect to ship, and what is the projected revenue from these kits?
A:While Brian does not provide specific numbers, he indicates that the number of development kits and customers will be sufficient to generate a significant revenue number, not just a rounding figure on the income statement. The company has intentionally budgeted enough resources to provide customers with the tools to test the devices, both in development kits and on their own devices.
Q:What is the typical design cycle for customers after receiving the development kits?
A:The typical design cycle for customers after receiving development kits involves a cautious and risk-averse community that wants to conduct their own testing. This usually takes several quarters to complete, including environmental tests and exercising the design.
Q:What is the target Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for the customers, and what is the timeline for achieving this?
A:The target for customers is to reach Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5, which is when they can successfully run the part through rigorous testing that simulates the operational environment. The company hopes to support customers to achieve this by mid-next year, after which point they can transition into programs of record.
Q:How does the company plan to manage expenditures and potential growth based on the success of the dev kits?
A:The company plans to make critical hires and allocate expenses accordingly as they transition from test chips to actual product chips. They aim to be mindful of financial considerations, align investments with customer needs, and potentially involve customers in the investment process to ensure alignment. With the new hires, the expectation is to maintain Opex around $3.5 million per quarter starting from Q2 onwards.
Q:What is the anticipated share count for 2025, and what changed in the revenue forecast from August to November?
A:The anticipated share count for 2025 is 17,090,000 shares, which are all currently outstanding. The revenue forecast suggests a decline of 20% to 30% from 2024, which is a change from the previously mentioned modest decline. The change is attributed to large IP contract values that, when they do not occur in the fiscal year, cause significant changes in revenue percentage compared to the current levels. With more high-value contracts expected in the future, the revenue fluctuations are anticipated to be less pronounced.

QuickLogic Corp.
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