迪士尼 (DIS.US) 2025财年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
The Walt Disney Company achieved a 19% increase in Adjusted EPS in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance in DTC, film studios, and streaming services. Key highlights include 'Lilo and Stitch's' box office success, robust viewership, and ESPN's DTC launch. Disney Plus is evolving into a 'super app' with double-digit revenue growth targets. Parks and cruises show strong demand. AI opportunities for efficiency and engagement are being explored, alongside negotiations with YouTube for fair carriage rights. Strategic investments in content and technology support a positive outlook for continued growth.
会议速览
Walt Disney's fourth quarter 2025 financial results conference call is introduced, with guidance on listening, asking questions, and accessing call details. Forward-looking statements and associated risks are noted, and a Q&A session is promised following management's remarks.
The company achieved 19% adjusted EPS growth, emphasizing investments in creative assets and direct-to-consumer businesses. Key highlights include successful box office performances, record streaming profits, and strategic expansions in entertainment and sports content. Plans for increased shareholder returns and upcoming high-impact titles are outlined.
The dialogue highlights record operating income, upcoming cruise ships, and theme park expansions. It also discusses ESPN's direct-to-consumer product, its early adoption insights, and its potential long-term impact. Cash flow guidance adjustments are noted, suggesting strong underlying growth.
ESPN's app launch has successfully attracted new users, enhanced engagement with existing subscribers, and introduced the trio bundle with Disney Plus and Hulu. The app's algorithm personalizes content, appealing to sports fans and advertisers. Disney's free cash flow growth, driven by strong Oi growth and investment leveling, enables increased shareholder returns.
Discussion on the studio's growth potential with upcoming releases, addressing the EPS guidance amidst carriage disputes, and the expected subscriber behavior post-blackout.
A discussion highlighted Disney's strong upcoming film slate, including Avatar, Mandalorian, and Avengers Doomsday, expressing optimism for future box office success. The conversation also addressed financial strategies, including guidance for Q1, which factored in the timing of Avatar's release and ongoing negotiations with YouTube, incorporating a hedge against potential revenue impacts.
Discussion on Disney Plus evolving into a comprehensive super app integrating parks, Hulu, ESPN, and driving double-digit DTC revenue growth through enhanced subscriber engagement and ad revenue.
The speaker discusses significant technological and product enhancements for Disney Plus, emphasizing personalization, global branding, and AI integration. These improvements aim to enhance user engagement, expand the service's reach, and integrate it with Disney's broader entertainment ecosystem, including theme parks, hotels, and cruises. The strategy includes leveraging partnerships, such as with Epic Games, and fostering user-generated content to deepen fan interaction worldwide.
The company aims to achieve double-digit margins in its DTC business through revenue growth and operational leverage, not cost cutting. The focus is on growing the top line by double digits, viewing the DTC business as a strategic growth driver for the Walt Disney Company's future.
Discussion on Disney's content acquisition strategy, current IP portfolio, and future advertising growth projections, highlighting sports and DTC advertising trends.
Discussion on cruise investments and NBA rights as drivers for fiscal year growth, emphasizing audience attraction and advertiser benefits.
The dialogue reveals an optimistic outlook on domestic park demand, with advanced bookings up 3% in the first quarter and continued growth expected for the year, indicating strong current demand.
Discussion on the positive impact of bundling services like ESPN, Disney Plus, Hulu, and Max, highlighting reduced churn rates and increased subscriber acquisition. Exploration of future bundling opportunities with other companies.
A discussion on domestic parks attendance, noting it met expectations despite competition, and the robust demand for cruise services with high guest satisfaction. The conversation also touches on the attractive margins of the cruise business, though specific figures are not disclosed.
Discussion on expected revenue growth and expense management for the direct-to-consumer business, including investments in content and technology. The dialogue also covers the potential benefits of a 53rd week on earnings per share growth, aiming for double-digit increases without adjusting for the extra week.
Discussed AI's dual role in protecting intellectual property while enhancing efficiency and engagement across various business sectors, emphasizing the balance between innovation and safeguarding content value.
要点回答
Q:What is the expected growth in earnings and cash flow for fiscal years?
A:For fiscal years, the expected growth in earnings is double-digit adjusted EPS growth compared to the prior year.
Q:What are the upcoming highly anticipated titles from the film studios?
A:Upcoming highly anticipated titles include 'Zootopia II', 'Avatar 2', 'The Devil Wears Prada II', 'Mandalorian II', 'Toy Story 5', a live action 'Moana', and 'Avengers: Doomsday'.
Q:How did the television content perform in Q4 and what are the upcoming series?
A:In Q4, there was strong viewership of television content, with series like 'Alien Earth' on Fx, 'High Potential' on Hulu, and 'Dancing with the Stars' on ABC. The upcoming series include new seasons of 'Paradise', 'The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives', 'Percy Jackson', 'American Idol', and a revival of 'Scrubs'.
Q:How is the sports segment performing with the launch of ESPN's DTC service?
A:The sports segment delivered a record operating income for the quarter and the full year. With the launch of ESPN's full Direct to Consumer Service and the enhanced ESPN app, the response from fans has been positive, and viewership of live sports remains robust with ratings across ESPN networks being on par with the prior year.
Q:What are the new developments in Disney's cruise ship fleet and theme parks?
A:Disney has announced the launch of the Disney Destiny next week and the Disney Adventure in March, which will be homeported in Asia. These developments bring the total number of cruise ships to eight. Additionally, expansion projects are underway at all of Disney's theme parks, with a new Frozen experience opening at Disneyland Paris. Furthermore, more cruise ships are scheduled for launch beyond fiscal 2023, and a new theme park is planned for Abu Dhabi.
Q:What feedback has Disney received on the new ESPN direct-to-consumer platform?
A:The launch of the ESPN direct-to-consumer platform has been successful. It aimed to attract new users, including those without a multi-channel linear bundle subscription, and to offer existing subscribers an enhanced experience through the app. Substantial signups have been received for the 'ultimate' product, which appeals to cord-nevers and those interested in sports engagement but not in a traditional way. The app's features, like the sports center and algorithm, have been well-received, and it has also benefited advertisers with valuable data.
Q:What impact is the new ESPN app expected to have on the business outlook and cash flow?
A:The new ESPN app is expected to positively impact the business outlook by attracting a new user base and allowing existing subscribers to engage more deeply with the platform. It is also anticipated to improve advertising revenue due to the valuable data provided to advertisers. Regarding cash flow, after adjusting for a significant tax swing, the company projects underlying growth, and the timing of tax payments contributed to the year-over-year increase in cash flow. Continued strong free cash flow growth is expected in the future, which allows flexibility in returning cash to shareholders.
Q:What is the subscriber trend for the new ESPN app and related bundles?
A:Of the subscribers who have signed up for the new ESPN app, approximately 80% have also subscribed to the 'trio bundle' that includes Disney Plus and Hulu. This indicates a positive trend of customers opting for additional streaming services along with ESPN.
Q:What are Disney's expectations for content growth at the studio in the coming years?
A:Disney is very encouraged by the upcoming studio slate, which includes highly anticipated films such as 'Avatar: The Way of Water,' 'Alita: Battle Angel,' and 'Black Adam,' among others. The company has strong expectations for the growth of its content offerings in the near future, with a particularly positive outlook for the rest of the year, which includes a mix of new releases and sequels that are anticipated to perform well.
Q:What are the perceived strengths of the studio's current slate and future prospects?
A:The studio perceives strength in its current and upcoming film slate, as evidenced by the success of films in the fiscal year, including the $2 billion film 'Lilo and Stitch' and its strong consumption after release on the platform. The studio feels optimistic about the direction and future potential of its projects.
Q:What is the impact of the overlap in Q1 on the studio's financial guidance and negotiations with YouTube?
A:The overlap in Q1, particularly with the release of 'Avatar' at the end of the quarter, is affecting the studio's financial guidance and is a factor in ongoing negotiations with YouTube. The studio has built a hedge into its guidance, anticipating extended discussions and considering potential impacts on revenue due to subscriber shifts. However, the studio is not providing further details on ongoing negotiations.
Q:What is Disney's strategy for achieving sustained double-digit DTC revenue growth?
A:Disney's strategy to achieve sustained double-digit DTC revenue growth involves focusing on subscriber engagement and advertising increases. The company aims to grow the top line of the business by double digits, driven by revenue growth and operating leverage. While not providing a specific revenue guide, Disney's objective is to increase revenue and margins beyond the current levels as it looks to the future.
Q:How is Disney Plus evolving and what new features will it include?
A:Disney Plus is undergoing significant changes from a product and technology perspective, aiming for greater personalization and a more dynamic user experience. It has transformed Hulu into a global general entertainment brand and seeks to create a one-app experience for users. Disney Plus is also evolving into an engagement engine for theme parks, hotels, and cruises, and it will incorporate games through the agreement with Epic Games, providing a platform for gaming-related content.
Q:How does Disney view potential M&A activity in the industry and its own position?
A:Disney does not typically comment on M&A specifically but acknowledges the current industry landscape. The company feels confident in its existing portfolio of intellectual properties built over the decade, which includes the acquisitions of Fox, Lucas, and Pixar. Disney is not expected to make significant moves in M&A, choosing to observe the outcomes of competitors' moves instead.
Q:What is Disney's outlook on advertising for the upcoming fiscal year?
A:Disney's outlook on advertising for the upcoming fiscal year indicates growth, with sports being particularly strong. DTC advertising has been impacted by supply entering the market, but there has been an improvement in CPms. Linear advertising is dependent on subscriber growth. Despite political advertising overlapping in the first quarter of 2026, the company anticipates advertising growth in the following year.
Q:What are the drivers of the segment in fiscal 26 and how much of the guided growth is from revenue versus margin expansion?
A:The drivers of the segment in fiscal 26 include big investments in cruise, expected to be a meaningful contributor to growth, particularly in the second half of the year. There will also be a combination of pricing and attendance growth. Revenue and margin expansion are both contributing factors to the guided growth.
Q:How is the NBA investment expected to affect growth over time?
A:The NBA investment is anticipated to be positive and to drive growth over time, especially in the latter half of the year. The rights costs associated with the NBA will initially cause some bumpiness in the year, but the second half is expected to show significant growth. The NBA's scale and appeal to advertisers make it strategically beneficial for the company.
Q:What is the current status of demand for Disney Parks in terms of advanced bookings or capacity?
A:Advanced bookings for Disney Parks are up 3% in the first quarter, which is a positive sign and indicates that demand is currently trending well.
Q:How has the ESPN bundle with Disney Plus and Hulu impacted subscriber churn and acquisition costs?
A:Subscribers that bundle Disney Plus and Hulu or bundle all three services have lower churn rates compared to those who only subscribe to one app. Approximately 80% of new ESPN service subscribers are buying the triple bundle, which is a positive sign for future churn rates. Bundling has also been shown to lower churn when combined with other offerings, such as the Max bundle with Discovery+ in the United States.
Q:What factors may have contributed to domestic parks attendance being light in the fourth quarter?
A:Domestic parks attendance in the fourth quarter was in line with expectations and was not considered light. The attendance was impacted by competition and factors specific to the Florida market but did not significantly impact consumer demand. The rest of the competition in Florida saw a more pronounced impact.
Q:Can you comment on the overall demand for the cruise business and the potential increase in margins as it grows?
A:Demand for the cruise business is very strong despite adding significant capacity. Utilization rates are in line with past experiences, with all added capacity being filled quickly. While specific details on cruise margins are not disclosed, the business is very attractive with good pricing, high guest satisfaction scores, and origins that are highly profitable.
Q:How does the extra week in 2026 impact guidance for fiscal year 27, and can double-digit EPS growth be expected without the 53rd week comp?
A:The impact of the extra week in 2026 on guidance for fiscal year 27 was not quantified in the provided text. However, it was mentioned that the company would provide clean guidance for the year and that on an underlying basis, it would help quantify the impacts of the extra week. The expectation for double-digit EPS growth in fiscal year 27 was also mentioned but without adjusting for the 53rd week comp.
Q:What are the company's expectations for revenue and expenses in the DTC business?
A:The company expects to grow revenue at an attractive rate with the aspiration to achieve double digits in the DTC business. They plan to invest at a reasonable level in content, with a focus on international markets to grow the international business. There will also be investments in product and technology. The company anticipates P&L leverage, where expenses will grow less quickly than revenue, leading to margin growth. Regarding the 53rd week, the value will be determined by Q4, and the company will share details with investors, aiming to grow double digits off that.
Q:How does the company view the opportunity of licensing content or IP to emerging video creation platforms and the role of generative AI in production costs?
A:The company has had productive conversations with AI companies and seeks to protect the value of their IP while exploring opportunities to use AI technology to enhance consumer engagement. They are encouraged by ongoing discussions and emphasize the importance of protecting IP with new technology. They also see opportunities to deploy AI for efficiency and cost savings not just in production but across the company, including in data mining and engagement with cast members, employees, guests, and customers. Generative AI is viewed as a tool to create efficiency and provide dynamic platforms for consumer creation.
Q:What is the company's stance on the YouTube distribution deal and the importance of consumer access to content?
A:The company is committed to maintaining consumer service uninterrupted and has proposed a deal that is equal to or better than what other large distributors have agreed to. They are working tirelessly to close the deal and restore their channels to the platform, prioritizing a deal that reflects the value they deliver, which YouTube and Alphabet acknowledge is greater than any other provider. The company is attempting to close the deal in a timely manner to ensure consumers can access their content through the platform.

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