腾讯控股 (00700.HK) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Tencent reported robust financial growth with increased revenue and net profit, emphasizing significant investments in AI that have enhanced various business areas. The company reassured investors about its AI strategy, highlighting advancements in AI capabilities, particularly with the Huyan model, and its strategic focus on gaming, advertising, and fintech. Management discussed CapEx adjustments, the development of AI within WeChat, and the company's evolving relationship with Apple, all while maintaining a positive outlook on future growth.
会议速览
Tencent reported solid Q3 2025 revenue and earnings growth, driven by investments in AI enhancing areas like game engagement and efficiency. Notable achievements include upgrades to Huyan foundation model and advancements in AI capabilities. Total revenue reached 193 billion RMB, up 15% YoY, with non-IFRS net profit rising 18% YoY. Key services saw growth, with Wex and WeChat MAU increasing, and TME solidifying music streaming leadership. Games like Delta Force and Violet expanded, while AI models Huyan and Hun Yuan ranked top globally in text-to-image and 3D generation.
Total revenue increased by 15% YoY in Q3 2025, with VA contributing 50%, driven by social networks, domestic games, and international games. Gross profit surged 22% YoY to 109 billion RMB, with VA, marketing services, and FinTech services seeing significant gains. Social networks' revenue grew 5% YoY, bolstered by music subscriptions and live streaming. Domestic games saw a 15% YoY increase, while international games soared 43% YoY, partly due to top game sales and recent acquisitions.
By integrating advanced AI features, enhancing merchandise discovery, and improving user interaction through innovative tools like gifting capabilities and image search, digital retail platforms are significantly boosting user engagement and sales, showcasing the power of technology in driving growth and customer satisfaction.
Tencent's third quarter saw significant growth across gaming, advertising, and fintech services. Gaming revenues soared with new releases and collaborations, advertising revenues increased due to enhanced engagement and AI tools, and fintech services expanded with robust payment volumes and prudent risk management.
The first quarter of 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue to 192.9 billion RMB, with gross profit rising 22% to 108.8 billion RMB. Operating profit and net profit attributable to equity holders grew by 19% and 18% respectively. Gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 56%, driven by high-margin contributions from games and marketing services. The company also reported a 36% quarter-on-quarter increase in free cash flow to 58.5 billion RMB, bolstered by strategic investments in AI and technology platforms, resulting in a 6% year-on-year increase in employee headcount to 115,000.
The dialogue covers the accelerated growth in the international gaming business, attributing success to new studio acquisitions and game launches. It outlines future strategies focusing on overseas studio partnerships and game exports. Regarding CapEx, it explains discrepancies between accrual and cash payments, noting a 221% year-on-year increase in 2024 and a forecasted lower percentage but higher absolute value for 2025, aiming for low teens as a percentage of revenue.
Management discusses enhancing Huyan team and infrastructure, Yuanbao's AI features integration, and the benefits of automated ad campaign solutions for advertisers, driving potential growth in ad revenue.
The dialogue addresses concerns regarding whether the company's current investment in GPU resources and yuanbao adoption is sufficient to compete in the AI application market, emphasizing the need for aggressive CapEx spending to avoid losing market share. It also discusses the anticipated timeline for internal AI adoption to yield cost efficiencies, particularly in areas like selling, marketing, and R&D, aiming to offset investments made in yuanbao and game advertising.
Improvements in Huan Yuan model capability and yuanbao engagement are driving revenue and gross profit growth. Despite increased R&D expenses due to AI investment, efficiency gains offset costs, showcasing a competitive edge in China's AI landscape.
The dialogue discusses Tencent's development of agentic AI within WeChat, envisioning an AI assistant capable of handling various tasks within its ecosystem, including commerce. It also addresses the 2025 CapEx adjustments, attributing them to changes in AI chip availability without altering AI strategy or token consumption expectations.
Discussed improved relationship with Apple impacting mini games and domestic video games, and outlined marketing services growth driven by AI capabilities amid recovering China consumer spending.
The dialogue explores the company's investment strategy, highlighting active portfolio recycling and AI startup investments, alongside RD spending trends. It emphasizes the impact of market buoyancy on capital deployment, focusing on revenue growth and operating profit over gross profit margins, and discusses the strategic shift towards higher quality revenue streams and emerging growth opportunities.
The dialogue discusses the current trends in the shooter genre, focusing on Battlefield Delta Force's position and strategies for improvement. It also explores the revenue contributions of in-app advertising versus purchases on Android, questioning the scope of discussions with Apple regarding mini games and broader gaming business impacts.
First-person action games are experiencing growth in China with titles like Delta Force, Valorant, and Peacekeeper Elite Arena. The genre's expansion is supported by platformization, user-generated content, and player versus environment modes. Mini-game revenue primarily comes from in-app purchases rather than advertising.
The dialogue discusses the impact of macroeconomic conditions on FinTech's consumer loan growth, noting that increased savings due to economic uncertainty have slowed consumption but haven't significantly affected loan delinquency. It also addresses cloud revenue growth, attributing current constraints to AI chip shortages, and predicts accelerated growth if supply improves.
The dialogue explores the influence of AI on advertising conversion and pricing, questioning organic growth without AI factors. It also discusses payment trends, highlighting increased volumes in retail and transportation, and seeks industry-specific insights on transaction patterns.
Advertising revenue growth attributed to higher ECPM and increased impressions, with AI and close-loop benefits playing a key role. Online payment volumes have steadily grown, while offline payments have started recovering, particularly in transportation and retail. This improvement is nascent, requiring further observation to confirm as a trend. China consumers' accumulated savings suggest less concern over property price fluctuations and potential receptiveness to stock market performance, contributing to steady payment trends.
The dialogue discusses the advancements in Tencent's AI-driven advertising tools, particularly Aim Plus, and its growing adoption among advertisers. It highlights the potential of mini-shop transactions in boosting ad revenue and contrasts the user demographics and functionalities of WeChat and QQ, emphasizing their unique roles in serving different market segments within China.
要点回答
Q:How is Tencent upgrading its AI capabilities and what impact does it have on business?
A:Tencent is upgrading its AI capabilities, with the human foundation model's image D and 3D generation models becoming industry leading. This investment in AI is benefiting business areas such as targeting, engagement, and efficiency enhancement in coding and game and video production.
Q:What is the revenue breakdown for Tencent's key services in the third quarter?
A:In the third quarter, revenue from value-added services (VAS) was 96 billion RMB, up 16% year on year. Social networks revenue grew 5% year on year to 32 billion RMB. Marketing services contributed 19% of total revenue, and FinTech and services made up 30% of total revenue.
Q:Which game became the top three game in China by growth revenue, and what was Tencent's response?
A:Delta Force became the top three game in China by growth revenue. Tencent's response was to solidify its leadership position in music streaming and gaming through continued investment in growing WeChat's adoption and developing genetic AI capabilities within WeChat.
Q:How did Tencent's music and long-form video subscription revenue perform in the third quarter?
A:Music subscription revenue increased 17% year on year, driven by growth in ARPU and subscribers. However, long-form video subscription revenue decreased 3% year on year, with stable ARPU but a decline in video subscribers due to the delay of drama series 'Love's Ambition' following its release at the end of the quarter.
Q:What were the main contributors to Tencent's domestic and international games revenue growth?
A:Domestic games revenue grew by 15% year on year, primarily driven by Delta Force, 'Honor of Kings', and 'Valorant'. International Games revenue increased by 43% year on year, or 42% in constant currency, due to upfront revenue recognition on top of copy sales of 'Dying Light: The Beau', and the consolidation of recently acquired studios.
Q:What enhancements are being made to Tencent's e-commerce platform, WeShop, and what is the impact?
A:Tencent is enhancing WeShop's transaction ecosystem by improving mini shop merchandise recommendations to increase sales conversions. It is using foundation model capabilities to better understand user interests and has introduced new features such as gifting capabilities and an upgraded image search feature to enhance merchandise discovery and user experience.
Q:What new AI features have been introduced in Tencent's video and official accounts, and how are users responding?
A:Tencent has introduced an AI feature in video accounts and official accounts that summarizes content and encourages users to ask follow-up questions. The feature has been well-received by users. Additionally, the 'tensor newsfeed' in WeChat was enriched with WeChat generated content to facilitate user exploration of news-related topics.
Q:How did the release of 'Dying Light the Beast' contribute to international game revenue?
A:The release of 'Dying Light the Beast' contributed to international game revenue growing unusually quickly during the quarter due to upfront revenue recognition from cop sales, which had a positive impact on the company's financial performance.
Q:What are the growth drivers for the marketing services revenue?
A:The growth drivers for the marketing services revenue include ad spend growth from all major advertiser categories, an average ECPM increase year on year, and the introduction of an automated ad campaign solution, AI Marketing Plus, which helps improve return on marketing investment.
Q:What was the effect of higher cloud services revenue on the business services segment?
A:The business services segment saw year on year revenue growth in the third quarter, with the increase attributed to higher cloud services revenues and increased technology service fees generated from rising mini shops, e-commerce volumes, and revenue from cloud storage and data management products.
Q:What were the changes in operating profit and net profit attributable to equity holders?
A:Operating profit grew by 19% year over year to 63.6 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to equity holders also grew by 18% year over year to 17.6 billion RMB, reflecting solid financial performance and growth in profit margins.
Q:What was the overall gross margin and its components for the first quarter of 2025?
A:The overall gross margin for the first quarter of 2025 was 56%, which increased by 3 percentage points year over year. The fast gross margin was 61%, also up 4 percentage points year over year, mainly driven by greater contributions from certain internally developed high-margin games.
Q:What factors contributed to the accelerated growth in the international gaming business?
A:The accelerated growth in the international gaming business was attributed to the consolidation of newly and recently acquired game studios, as well as the recognition of upfront revenue from copy sales for the game Dying Light the Beast.
Q:What updates are provided regarding the full year CapEx guidance?
A:The full year CapEx guidance was updated to expect a lower percentage of CapEx as a ratio of revenue for 2025, while the amount of CapEx is anticipated to be higher than in 2024.
Q:How is the company planning to approach the growth of its international game business in the future?
A:The company plans to continue seeking acquisitions of game studios, partnerships with overseas game studios, and bringing more Chinese-made games to global markets as part of its strategy for the international game business.
Q:How is the Huan Yuan team and architecture being enhanced, and how does it complement other AI capabilities?
A:The Huan Yuan team is hiring top talent in research to complement the engineering team and is improving the overall architecture in various dimensions such as hardware, software, data preparation, model pre-training, and reinforcement learning. The Huan architecture complements other AI capabilities, such as Weixin, which has introduced AI features based on Huan's capability, like the video accounts and official accounts comment box and Tencent News Feed's content generation.
Q:What benefits does the automated ad campaign solution provide for advertisers?
A:The automated ad campaign solution benefits advertisers by enabling them to automatically reach more performant inventories and user profiles compared to those they were manually targeting. It is particularly attractive to small to medium-sized businesses due to its ability to improve reach and efficiency without extensive legacy processes.
Q:Is there a risk that the company is not aggressive enough in capitalizing on the AI application market?
A:The company believes there is no insufficiency of GPUs for internal use and is confident in the progress made by the team in terms of talent recruitment and improvements in the Huan Yuan infrastructure. They do not believe a decisive better model exists as the race in China is close, and different models may excel in different use cases. The company remains optimistic about the improvements in the Huan Yuan capability and the increase in yuanbao engagement.
Q:How is the company's current organization structured in relation to AI investment and cost-efficiency?
A:The company has already performed major organization optimization a few years back and the current organization is lean and efficient. AI adoption further enables the team to enhance performance rather than reducing costs.
Q:What is Tencent's approach to developing agentic AI capabilities within WeChat?
A:Tencent is developing agentic AI capabilities within WeChat that includes an AI agent which can assist users with various tasks by leveraging the strong communication, social, content, commerce, and payment ecosystems that WeChat has. The goal is to create an ideal assistant for users that understands their needs and can execute tasks within the ecosystem.
Q:What does the current stage of AI development entail for WeChat, and what is the company's approach to integrating AI features?
A:WeChat is in the early stages of AI development and is taking a parallel approach by introducing Y (possibly Yu) capabilities into WeChat for standalone AI feature testing, enhancing search with AI for efficient user information needs, and starting work on vertical AGT capabilities that will be integrated one by one to eventually create a comprehensive AI integration scenario.
Q:How is Tencent making progress in the e-commerce and mini-program ecosystems, and what are the future plans?
A:Tencent is making good progress in building the e-commerce ecosystem within WeChat, with mini-programs growing in terms of GMB. Future plans involve continuing to develop vertical AGT capabilities that may eventually integrate into the commerce ecosystem, potentially leading to an 'anti-commerce' feature within the AI agent.
Q:What is the nature of the improved relationship with Apple and its potential impact on WeChat's business, particularly in mini games and domestic video games?
A:WeChat has a good relationship with Apple and has collaborated on several areas, working with Apple to make the mini game ecosystem more vibrant. While details are not discussed, an official announcement may be expected in due course, which could have a positive impact on WeChat's business in mini games and domestic video games.
Q:What is the advertising growth outlook for the company, and what are the factors contributing to it?
A:The company expects the advertising growth outlook to continue current trends as China consumer spending is subdued but gently improving, providing a gentle tailwind for advertising spending. The company will continue deploying AI capabilities like the Aim Plus program and automated ad campaign programs to support this growth.
Q:How does the company expect AI investments and their costs to impact RD spending and OPM in the near and medium term?
A:The company is focused on how RD spending, especially as a percentage of revenue, and the impact on OPM will trend in the near and medium term, considering potential AI investments and their costs. The specific medium-term impact of these variables is not detailed in the provided text.
Q:What factors have contributed to the improvement in gross profit margins?
A:The improvement in gross profit margins has been attributed to a positive mix shift toward higher quality revenue streams and specific measures taken to optimize profitability in certain sub-segments like cloud. However, the speaker cautions against focusing too heavily on quarter-to-quarter changes due to the variability in costs, especially in the early stages of product development.
Q:How is the company deploying and recycling its capital?
A:The company has been actively recycling its portfolio by selling investment holdings on the market and investing in emerging growth opportunities and its core focus areas such as games and digital content. Year-to-date, divestments have exceeded investments by over a billion dollars, and the company has been investing in AI startups, particularly in China.
Q:How significant is in-app advertising compared to in-app purchases in mobile games?
A:In terms of revenue, the majority of mini-game revenue comes from in-app purchases rather than in-app advertising, according to the speaker.
Q:What factors should be considered when evaluating the growth rate of cloud revenue?
A:When evaluating the growth rate of cloud revenue, one should consider the impact of macro-environment factors on the payment business within the FinTech sector. Additionally, it's mentioned that the growth rate may not necessarily be affected by capex (capital expenditure) as the growth rate is influenced by other factors within the payment business.
Q:What factors have contributed to the slow consumption growth in China and what could potentially boost it?
A:The slow consumption growth in China has been mainly due to consumers ramping up their savings during a period in which their balance sheet was dragged down by the decline in property prices. Unlike other economic downturns worldwide, this is not driven by excessive credit or bankruptcy, but by new individuals with resources choosing to save more instead of spending. If people feel more secure with their additional savings and property prices stop declining, there is potential for consumption to grow.
Q:How is the payment business related to China's consumption growth and what factors are influencing it?
A:The payment business tracks closely with consumption growth in China. Factors influencing it include the overall balance sheet strength of households, as indicated by stock price movements, and consumer loans delinquency which is not being significantly affected due to people saving more rather than spending. Additionally, the underwriting practices of the company are conservative and data-driven, contributing to low delinquency rates.
Q:What is the growth constraint for the cloud business and what would facilitate a more rapid growth?
A:The growth constraint for the cloud business is the availability of AI chips. When AI chips are in short supply, the company prioritizes internal use over renting it out externally. If there were a more available AI chip supply, the cloud revenue would be expected to grow more quickly.
Q:How has AI implementation impacted the advertising business and what could have been the organic growth without AI?
A:AI implementation has led to roughly half of the advertising revenue growth due to higher ECPM primarily from AI-supported ad tech and close-loop benefits. The other half was attributed to increased impression volume reflecting increased user engagement and commercial payment volume trends. Without AI, the organic growth could have been different, but the specific impact of AI in reshaping conversion and pricing within the advertising business was highlighted as a significant factor.
Q:What are the observed trends in the payment volume, particularly in the retail and transportation sectors?
A:The online payment volume has continued to grow steadily, even during weaker economic periods and more stable ones. The offline payment volume, which had been suppressed, has started to recover, narrowing the gap with online payment volume growth. Specifically, the retail and transportation sectors have seen volume growth, reflecting an increase in consumer activity and confidence.
Q:What are the differences and parallels between WeChat and QQ compared to Facebook and Instagram?
A:WeChat and QQ serve different user groups and use cases compared to Facebook and Instagram. WeChat and QQ both integrate communication and social networks but have different network effects due to the dual nature of the platforms. In China, mobile orientation is more prevalent, whereas in the rest of the world, Facebook has more PC users. User demographics also differ, with WeChat serving younger users and QQ having a broader appeal to a younger audience. Going forward, WeChat aims to provide functionalities that meet the needs of a diverse user base, including interest-based groups and ways to connect with new people.

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