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摩根士丹利 (MS.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Morgan Stanley reported record Q3 2025 revenues of $18.2 billion, driven by wealth management, investment banking, and asset management. The firm highlighted strong client asset growth, strategic investments in AI and digital assets, and robust earnings durability. Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, emphasizing its integrated business model and focus on capital strength.
会议速览
Morgan Stanley's Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Record Performance and Capital Markets Strategy
Morgan Stanley's third quarter 2025 earnings call showcased record revenues of $18.2 billion and EPS of $2.80, reflecting robust returns on tangible equity. The firm emphasized its strategy to raise, manage, and allocate capital, highlighting growth in client assets and fee-based flows. Institutional securities and investment management delivered outstanding results, positioning Morgan Stanley well amidst economic uncertainty. The company also noted regulatory capital framework improvements and its commitment to earnings durability and growth.
Morgan Stanley's Strategic Growth and Resilience Amidst Global Uncertainty
Morgan Stanley showcases its robust strategy, emphasizing integrated business growth, strong financial performance, and commitment to shareholder returns amidst macroeconomic challenges. The firm highlights record revenue, operating leverage, and total client assets of $8.9 trillion, underscoring its resilience and strategic focus.
Investment Banking's Revival: AI-Driven Efficiency and Global Market Rebound
Investments in AI tools enhance workplace efficiency, while global markets, especially in the Americas and Asia, show robust growth in institutional securities and investment banking revenues, driven by improved capital markets and strong IPO activity.
Morgan Stanley's Q3 2023 Revenue Highlights: Fixed Income, Equities, and Credit Markets Show Strength Amid Economic Recovery
Fixed income underwriting revenues surged, supported by higher non-investment grade and investment grade loan issuance. The integrated investment bank saw increased activity, with clients leveraging Morgan Stanley for capital deployment. Equities revenue reached $4.1 billion, driven by prime brokerage and derivatives. Credit markets remained resilient, and despite macroeconomic challenges, ISG provisions were modest, reflecting improved forecasts and portfolio growth.
Record Revenues, Strong Asset Growth, and Strategic Investments in Wealth Management
The company reports record revenues of $8.2 billion, with a 30.3% margin, and $7 trillion in total client assets, highlighting strong net new assets, fee-based flows, and strategic investments in digital assets and partnerships, reinforcing its industry leadership.
Investment Banking's Bullish Outlook Amid Global Trends and Capital Investment
The dialogue highlights a positive outlook for investment banking, driven by global trends, favorable regulations, and strategic capital investments. It underscores the industry's growth potential, particularly in equity and debt underwriting, and advisory services, despite geopolitical uncertainties. The speaker expresses optimism about the sector's future, emphasizing a robust pipeline across regions and industries.
Exploring Workplace Momentum and Channel Contributions to NNA Growth in Wealth Management
Discussed strong NNA growth driven by workplace momentum, exceeding annual migration targets, and contributions from self-directed, advisory channels, including tools for advisors and fee-based flows from IPO market participants.
Sustainability of 30% Pre-Tax Margin in Wealth Business Growth
The discussion revolves around the sustainability of achieving a 30% pre-tax margin, emphasizing ongoing investments in wealth business to foster Pvt growth. While a 30.3% margin was achieved, it is stressed that this is an output, not an input, with future margins dependent on continued investment and operational leverage. The focus remains on driving revenue and growth across various segments of the wealth funnel.
Navigating AI's Impact on Banking: Efficiency, Productivity, and Revenue Growth
Discusses AI's role in enhancing efficiency, productivity, and revenue in banking, highlighting examples like code optimization, lead IQ for advisors, and data summarization, while addressing concerns about AI cycles and growth implications.
Wealth Management Growth, Equity Share Gains, and Future Opportunities
Discussion on leveraging private markets and technology sectors for wealth management growth, emphasizing education and portfolio reweighting. Highlights consistent equity share gains and future growth opportunities, projecting 5-7% organic growth over time.
Investment in Global Markets Drives Durable Growth for Equations Business
The dialogue highlights the significance of technology and global investment in fostering consistent growth within the equations business. It underscores the strategic allocation of resources in various regions, particularly Asia, and the importance of global reach in enhancing competitive moats. The consistent growth attributed to increased prime brokerage, end client balances, and internal trading tools exemplifies the durable nature of the business. The speaker emphasizes the long-term perspective on investments and the emerging opportunities in global capital markets.
Expanding Partnership with Carta for Enhanced Private to Public Market Transition Services
Discussed the deepening relationship with Carta, focusing on enhancing services for clients transitioning from private to public markets, emphasizing the value of advice-based services and the expansion of wealth management offerings.
Strategies for Capital Deployment and Organic Growth in Financial Services
Discusses leveraging parametric inflows, enhancing wealth channels, exploring white label opportunities, and prioritizing organic growth through strategic investments and technology, while maintaining a cautious stance on inorganic acquisitions.
Investment Banking Backlog: Capital Markets and IPOs as Catalysts for Realization Pipeline
The dialogue explores the factors driving the investment banking backlog and the realization pipeline, highlighting the role of capital markets and IPOs. It discusses the benefits of private companies, regulatory challenges, and the potential for deregulation to stimulate M&A activity and growth industries.
Exploring Wealth Management and Trading Strategies Amidst Shifting Interest Rates
The dialogue delves into how wealth management net interest income (NII) might grow despite falling interest rates, attributing potential growth to lending balance increases and client participation. It also discusses the evolution of trading financing growth, highlighting the impact of market conditions, global business expansion, and the development of derivatives and cash businesses. The conversation underscores strategies for maintaining high trading results and adapting to market changes.
Navigating the Capital Markets: Assessing the Current Cycle and Geopolitical Risks
The discussion explores the complexities of the current capital market cycle, emphasizing the impact of geopolitical uncertainties, regulatory constraints on large-cap mergers, and the democratization of private capital. It highlights the pent-up supply and idea flow post-pandemic, alongside the challenges posed by market dynamics and liquidity issues. The dialogue underscores the need for global investment banks to offer comprehensive services amidst these uncertainties.
Navigating Global Capital Markets: Balancing Investment Banking Resources and Geopolitical Risks
The dialogue explores the challenges and strategies for managing investment banking resources in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and market fluctuations. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced team, avoiding over-hiring, and leveraging the integrated firm proposition to offer comprehensive services. The conversation also touches on the need for adaptability and decision-making in leadership to ensure success in the next 3-5 years.
Discussion on Capital Management, Buffer Levels, and Regulatory Uncertainty
The dialogue explores the concept of management buffer in capital, emphasizing the need for a buffer due to regulatory uncertainty. It discusses the evolution of buffer levels, influenced by factors such as CCAR models, Basel regulations, and SLR rules. The speakers agree on maintaining a conservative buffer, currently estimated at 250 plus, with expectations of simplification and transparency from regulators reducing future buffer sizes.
Sustainability of High Profitability in Institutional Securities Amid Growing Investment Banking and Market Revenues
The dialogue explores the potential for maintaining high profitability in institutional securities, considering the growth in investment banking and market revenues, amidst volatile economic conditions, questioning the sustainability of current performance levels.
Navigating Economic Cycles: Strategies for Business Durability and Market Performance
Discusses strategies for ensuring business durability and market performance amidst economic fluctuations, emphasizing prudent capital use, stable fixed income business management, and selective growth in investment banking and capital markets.
要点回答
Q:What were the financial highlights of Morgan Stanley's third quarter?
A:Morgan Stanley's third quarter financial highlights included record revenues of $18.2 billion, earnings per share (EPS) of $2.80, robust returns on tangible common equity of 23.5%, and adding $81 billion in net new assets with $42 billion in fee-based flows.
Q:How is Morgan Stanley positioned in its various businesses?
A:Morgan Stanley is well positioned in each of its businesses, consistently executing and demonstrating growth, with total client assets up $1.6 trillion over the last year and reaching $8.9 trillion. The firm's scale and client reach drove performance with reported margins at 30%, and it added $81 billion in net new assets and $42 billion in fee-based flows in the quarter.
Q:What were the standout results for the Institutional Securities business?
A:The standout results for the Institutional Securities business included revenues of $8.5 billion, demonstrating powerful operating leverage with the Americas leading year-over-year growth. The business continued to see attractive returns from investing across integrated investment banking themes and emerging technologies.
Q:How did Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking division perform?
A:Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking division saw meaningful improvement with increased capital markets activity leading to revenues of $2.1 billion, one of the strongest quarters in recent years. Investment banking revenues were driven by broad-based strength with underwriting results up over 50%, and advisory revenues increased year over year.
Q:What factors contributed to the increase in Fixed Income underwriting revenues?
A:The increase in Fixed Income underwriting revenues to $772 million was driven by higher non-investment grade and investment grade loan issuance, along with M&A market signs of recovery and event lending commitments that met receptive markets.
Q:What were the results for Morgan Stanley's Equations franchise?
A:Morgan Stanley's Equations franchise generated $4.1 billion in revenue, propelled by broad-based performance across products and regions, driven by prime brokerage revenues and increases in client assets and financing revenues.
Q:How did Wealth Management perform in the third quarter?
A:Wealth Management grew with sustained momentum, recording $8 trillion in total client assets and $8 billion in record revenues. Operating leverage drove margins to 30%, and the business continued to demonstrate strength with robust net new assets and fee-based flows, bolstered by investments in its platform and partnerships.
Q:What factors contributed to the growth in NII?
A:The growth in NII was driven by the impact of the market environment and the cumulative loan growth.
Q:What is the momentum in investment management and global reach?
A:Investment management is performing well with momentum for secular demand in parametric solutions and expanding the firm's global reach and fixed income capabilities.
Q:What were the revenues and growth drivers for the quarter?
A:Revenues of $1.7 billion increased 13% compared to the prior year, driven by higher asset management and related fees from higher average AUM, supported by performance-based income and other revenues.
Q:What was the quarterly tax rate, and what is the expectation for the fourth quarter?
A:The quarterly tax rate was 23.6%, excluding $50 million of net discrete tax benefits, and it is expected that the fourth quarter tax rate will be approximately 24%.
Q:How does the firm view the sustainability of the investment banking environment?
A:The firm views the investment banking environment as very interesting due to the flywheel effect taking hold across industry groups and regions, a favorable regulatory backdrop, and the need for cost-effective endogenous AI. The firm is optimistic, with a strong pipeline and a focus on strategic competition, although there could be geopolitical pauses.
Q:What are the recent developments in investment banking?
A:Recent developments in investment banking include a strong equity and debt underwriting performance, advisory business picking up, and an overall optimistic outlook despite global uncertainties.
Q:Can you provide more detail on NNA growth within the wealth channel?
A:NNA growth within the wealth channel was driven by contributions from the workplace and the IPO market. The workplace channel is bringing in assets not just into brokerage but also into fee-based flows. The firm is seeing momentum in assets being moved directly into advisors' accounts, contributing to net new assets and fee-based flows, and is exceeding expectations with workplace migration.
Q:Is a pretax margin of 30% sustainable for the company?
A:While the reported pretax margin was 30.3%, which was an output, the focus remains on investment dollars to drive P&L growth. It remains to be seen if continued operating leverage will result in a number higher than the current one, but the investment in the wealth business to broaden and deepen the funnel is ongoing.
Q:How does the company perceive the risk of an AI bubble in the late 90s and where does it see itself in the current cycle?
A:The company perceives AI not just as a tool for efficiency but also for productivity, with uses across the revenue and expense lines. It is applying AI in various areas such as lead IQ, data analysis, and financial advisory, among others. History has shown that these types of technological advances can lead to revenue growth, but the company is cautious about AI-specific risks and the current cycle position.
Q:What is the significance of the private market space for the wealth management business?
A:The private market space is significant for the wealth management business because it represents an aggregate client asset size of about $250 billion. The journey towards growth in this space will involve an education process and reweighting or rebasing individuals' portfolios, which is expected to take time.
Q:What is driving the consistent pattern of share gains in the equity business?
A:The consistent pattern of share gains in the equity business is driven by investments in the platform, people, and global regions. Additionally, the business has experienced durable share-based gains, particularly through increases in prime brokerage and technology investments that have benefitted both derivative and cash-based businesses.
Q:How has the relationship with Carter evolved and what is its significance?
A:The relationship with Carter has expanded from a referral-based model to include the provision of advice-based services throughout the journey of private companies moving from a private to a public state. This has been beneficial for solidifying work in wealth management, including for founders and family offices, and has helped deepen relationships with private companies.
Q:In what ways has the wealth management business grown and what is the potential with the new partnership?
A:The wealth management business has grown by explaining the value of advice to a broader client base and through the addition of services for the entire journey of private companies. This includes the new partnership with Carter, which is expected to add more substantial depth to the base of the business, especially in the context of robust capital markets activity.
Q:What is the potential of the parametric growth and partnership with third-party investment advisors?
A:The potential of parametric growth includes expanding its use within the wealth channel and with third-party asset managers. Parametric has been gaining market share through tax harvesting and has seen growth through partnerships with retail distribution channels. This partnership with third-party asset managers is seen as an opportunity to grow parametric further, although these inflows can be lumpy and are not expected in every quarter.
Q:Are there areas where the company could deploy more capital to drive growth?
A:The company continues to prioritize the dividend, which is dollar-share sacrosanct, and to manage buybacks as an opportunistic tactical lever. While the company has over $300 billion in excess capital, it prefers to deploy capital internally within the business and integrated firm, focusing on adjacent and orthogonal investments that align with its strategy. These investments are aimed at scaling with key clients, building product capabilities, and investing in technologies for efficiency and effectiveness. Specific examples include investments in the markets business, investment banking, and internal investments like Etrade Pro.
Q:What criteria does the firm use to evaluate potential inorganic growth opportunities?
A:The firm uses several criteria to evaluate potential inorganic growth opportunities, such as strategy, culture, timing, and price. They have been well-trained in these aspects due to the experience of Mr. Gorman and have successfully integrated multiple companies in the past. However, they are cautious and avoid making acquisitions just for the sake of it.
Q:Why does the firm believe that being a private company has been advantageous in recent years?
A:Being a private company has been advantageous due to the democratization of the private channel and the ability for companies to stay private longer. This has been particularly beneficial for firms to sustain capital structures without the immediate pressure to go public. The private status has also been helpful for sponsors as they can continue to grow their businesses without the need to seek public market funds.
Q:How does the firm anticipate changes in regulations will affect M&A and IPO activities?
A:The firm anticipates that changes in the regulatory framework, which could lead to earlier and easier public listing opportunities, will attract strategic investors and may result in a more robust IPO market. This, in turn, could create a conducive environment for large cap M&A across various industries, given that strategic buyers and sellers will be more inclined to engage in cross-border deals due to more predictable regulatory outcomes.
Q:In what ways does the firm expect to maintain or grow its net interest income as short-term rates are projected to lower?
A:The firm expects to maintain or grow its net interest income despite short-term rates lowering due to the natural hedges in the model such as margin balances, SEC lending, pledge assets, stabilization, and brokerage suite balances. Moreover, the firm anticipates growth from higher lending balances, especially from new client participation and increasing demand from the bank itself.
Q:How does the firm manage its balance sheet to offset changes in interest rates?
A:The firm manages its balance sheet by offsetting the impact of changing interest rates with various financial instruments and strategies, such as an increase in lending balances. They also rely on behavior-based adjustments that naturally occur when interest rates fluctuate, which can provide upside potential for net interest income.
Q:What factors are driving the increase in brokerage balances?
A:The increase in brokerage balances is driven by market rises and a more transactional level of activity that is influenced by what's happening in the marketplace at a given time.
Q:What is the growth strategy for the derivatives business?
A:The growth strategy for the derivatives business involves running it as a barbell with a best-in-class and traditional product, alongside high touch, research-driven sales that are embedded with asset managers to capitalize on market dispersion.
Q:What challenges exist in the current market environment?
A:Challenges in the current market environment include geopolitical uncertainty, uncertainty around how the economy manifests in terms of Fed policy and fiscal response, and the democratization of private capital class leading to liquidity issues.
Q:How is the current capital market cycle positioned, and what are the expectations for investment banks?
A:The speaker indicates that while there is pent-up supply and product flow, creating potential category killers, there's also geopolitical uncertainty and a challenging market environment. Investment banks with large global enterprises and world-class corporate finance bankers are positioned to succeed in the current cycle, providing full support for global ideas and risk management.
Q:What is the outlook for investment banking and capital markets over the next few years?
A:The outlook for investment banking and capital markets over the next three to five years is positive, with opportunities despite geopolitical uncertainty potentially impacting risk off or asset prices. Investment banks will face a test on which companies and ideas win in this environment.
Q:What staffing and resourcing challenges are present for the upcoming capital market cycle?
A:There is a staffing and resourcing tension as investment banks tend to be pro-cyclical, meaning they may over-hire. The challenge is to balance an installed base of experienced bankers with the need not to over-staff during market downturns.
Q:How should one think about the management buffer in the current regulatory environment?
A:One should think about the management buffer in the context of regulatory uncertainty and the need for predictability. Over time, as there is more certainty, the sides of the buffer should prudently lower. A comfortable level to work from is suggested to be above 250 plus.
Q:Is the current level of profitability in institutional securities sustainable over time?
A:The speaker expresses optimism about sustaining the current level of profitability in institutional securities over time, given the businesses are performing well and the markets are also doing extremely well.
Q:How do the performance of investment banking and markets businesses relate to economic growth?
A:The performance of the investment banking and markets businesses is closely related to economic growth. During periods of economic volatility or concerns of a recession, these businesses generally perform less well. Conversely, when there is a reacceleration of growth, they tend to perform better. There is a need to manage through different economic conditions while maintaining durability and essential partnership with clients.
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