LOGIN | Register
Cooperation
阿斯麦公司 (ASML.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
文章语言:
EN
Share
Minutes
原文
会议摘要
ASML navigates industry challenges, emphasizing clarity post-tariffs, managing high-NA systems demand, anticipating China market decline, and preparing for AI-driven growth, while addressing cash flow and supply risks.
会议速览
ASML's Q3 2025 Financial Results and Future Outlook
ASML reported Q3 2025 net sales of €10.6 billion, including €5.6 billion from system sales, with a gross margin of 51%. The company expects Q4 sales between €12.5 billion and €13 billion, with a gross margin of 51-53%. Leadership changes and a new share buyback program were also announced, highlighting strategic moves and financial health.
Market Trends and Sales Forecast: AI Growth, EUV Adoption, and China Demand Decline in 2026
The industry has seen a positive trend with increased investment in AI infrastructure, more customer engagement in AI, and adoption of EUV layers in logic and DRAM. However, a significant decline in China customer demand is expected, impacting total net sales in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025. Despite this, overall sales are not projected to fall below 2025 levels, with EUV business anticipated to grow and Dpv business to decline. More details on the 2026 outlook for the China market will be provided in January.
ASML's Technological Progress and Strategic Partnerships in EUV and AI
ASML reports advancements in EUV technology, including the release of new systems and strategic engagement with Mistral AI for integrating AI into its portfolio, enhancing performance, productivity, and innovation.
Advanced Lithography Systems and Market Dynamics in Semiconductor Industry
Discusses the impact of advanced lithography systems on product mix shifts, expectations for AI infrastructure growth, and market visibility for future revenue opportunities, including insights into China's semiconductor market trends.
AI Investment Trends and Revenue Linearity in 2026 and 2027
The dialogue discusses the recent AI investment trends and their implications for revenue linearity in 2026, noting strong orders in the last two quarters. However, it is considered too early to predict linearity for 2027, with emphasis on the lumpy nature of orders and the positive medium-term outlook.
DRAM Architecture Transition to 4x Square: No Negative Impact on EUV Layer Growth
The dialogue clarifies that transitioning DRAM architecture from 6x to 4x square does not reduce EUV layers; instead, it's anticipated that EUV layer count will grow. This transition introduces a more complex structure, requiring advanced masks, which benefits EUV technology. The conversation reassures that 4x square is not detrimental to EUV advancements, countering initial concerns.
Analysis of Positive Market Trends in DRAM and AI Infrastructure Post-Tariff Clarity
The dialogue discusses a shift from uncertainty to positivity in the DRAM and AI infrastructure markets, attributing this change to increased clarity regarding tariffs. This has enabled customers to make more concrete decisions on capacity building, leading to optimistic projections for EUV growth next year, which is relevant to both DRAM and advanced logic markets.
Analysis of Gross Margin Improvement in Q4 Due to Mix and Upgrade Business
The dialogue discusses the factors contributing to a better-than-expected gross margin guide for the December quarter. The analysis attributes the slight improvement at the midpoint to a mix of elements including tariffs, volume, and mix. Specifically, the negative impact of Ed exes is offset by positive Lona and upgrade business. Overall, these dynamics lead to a slightly better gross margin than previously anticipated, despite the challenges posed by volume and mix changes.
Capacity Concerns and Market Demand for UV Tools in HVM and AI Chip Production
A discussion on the feasibility of meeting high-demand projections for UV tools in HVM and AI chip manufacturing, emphasizing the need for market diversification and ongoing capacity preparation to avoid supply limitations.
Backlog Analysis and Forecasting for Growth Beyond 2026
Discussion revolves around the composition of the backlog, emphasizing orders extending beyond 2026, which complicates projections for strong growth in 2026. Acknowledges healthy order intake and high contingent in the backlog, yet uncertainty regarding pull-ins and push-outs makes concrete predictions challenging.
Reflecting on January Initiatives and Expressing Gratitude
A discussion revolves around reflecting on actions taken in January, expressing thanks for support, and welcoming new contributions, highlighting the importance of appreciation and continuous improvement in collaborative efforts.
Rephrasing Didier's Inquiry with Andrew's Perspective in a Corporate Call
A participant on a corporate call seeks to reframe a prior question, aiming to gain new insights or address it from a different viewpoint, indicating ongoing dialogue and collaborative problem-solving.
Critical Supplier's Preparedness Amid AI Market's Rapid Expansion
A critical supplier in the AI market discusses strategies to manage rapid industry growth, emphasizing flexibility and customer communication to avoid supply bottlenecks. The supplier highlights improvements in infrastructure and dialogue with customers to ensure timely responses to market demands, acknowledging the mutual challenges faced across the supply chain.
Revenue Ramp-Up and Order Patterns for High-End Technology Products
The dialogue discusses the company's current backlog management and future order expectations for high-end technology products. With a significant backlog being worked through, the focus shifts to the anticipated order wave following product qualification, expected in the second half of the next year. The conversation highlights the company's proactive preparation for growth, even without full demand clarity, aiming for shipments beyond the end of the next year.
China Market Demand and Revenue Projections for 2026
The dialogue discusses the projected decline in China's revenue for 2026, attributing it to the normalization of sales levels in the mainstream logic market after a period of high sales due to backlog fulfillment. The speakers highlight the conservative assessment of the Chinese market's future demand, based on customer dialogues and market understanding, despite stronger-than-expected sales this year.
Engagement with Audience Inquiry on Odo Bhs Line
A speaker acknowledges an inquiry coming from an audience member associated with Odo Bhs, inviting them to proceed with their question.
Advanced Packaging Solutions: Xt ed for Edd Integration and Transistor Density Advancement
Discussion focuses on the Xt ed, an advanced packaging product aiding Edd integration, addressing the slowdown in transistor scaling, and enhancing speed and accuracy, highlighting customer interest and market outlook.
EUV Technology Impact on Gross Margin and Product Mix Shifts
The dialogue discusses the impact of EUV technology and changes in product mix on gross margins, emphasizing the benefits of less China business and more EUV shipments, while considering the dilutive effects of Heine and install base business on margins.
Update on Installed Base and Service Business Growth Impacting Future Revenue
The dialogue discusses the company's installed base growth, particularly in EUV, and its positive impact on the service business. It notes a shift from upgrade revenue to service revenue, with expectations for an update on future upgrade business sustainability in January.
AI Advancements and Tool Maturity: A Path to Future Business Growth
Discussions centered on AI developments' impact on future bookings and business momentum, emphasizing the current focus on tool maturity and the transition to EUV technology. The dialogue highlighted the advancements in AI investments and the validation of system specifications, indicating a promising trajectory for long-term business growth.
High-NA Platform's Profitability and R&D Efficiency Outlook
The dialogue discusses the High-NA platform's dilutive impact on margins, emphasizing volume's role in improving gross margins. It highlights ongoing R&D investments for breakthroughs in lower NA, productivity, and imaging quality, while committing to efficiency gains in managing RD and SG&A expenses.
Lithography Advancements and AI Chip Impact on ASML's Future
Discussion covers lithography progress, AI investment, and implications for ASML, emphasizing advanced nodes and increased EUV adoption in DRAM, with a focus on AI-driven advancements and potential shifts in industry norms.
AI Impact on Investment, Customer Concentration, and Working Capital
The dialogue discusses the dual impact of AI on driving incremental investment while potentially limiting visibility due to customer concentration. It also addresses concerns over supply limitations with a single dominant customer and examines the effects of AI on market dynamics. Additionally, the conversation explores the factors influencing working capital intensity, particularly inventory levels related to Ina systems and down payments tied to order intake, emphasizing efforts to reduce cycle time for improved efficiency.
要点回答
Q:What are the highlights of ASML's third quarter 2025 financial results?
A:The highlights of ASML's third quarter 2025 financial results include total net sales of €7.1 billion euros, with net system sales driven by logic at 65% and memory at 35%. Mid-quarter management sales came in as guided at €2 billion, and gross margin for the quarter was within guidance at 50%. Operating expenses, including R&D andSG&A expenses, were as guided, with a tax rate of 17.8% for the quarter.
Q:What was the impact of tax and the interim dividend on ASML's financials in the third quarter?
A:In the third quarter, the impact on tax was 17.8%, and ASML paid the first interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share. The second quarterly interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share was also announced and will be paid on November 6, 2025.
Q:What share buyback program updates were announced by ASML?
A:ASML announced that it has purchased shares for a total amount of around €148 million and has acquired 9 million shares under the current program for a total of €5.9 billion. ASML expects to complete the €12 billion share buyback program in full within the 2022-2025 timeframe and intends to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026.
Q:What are the expectations for ASML's fourth quarter 2025 sales and gross margin?
A:For the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML expects total net sales to be between €32 billion and €34 billion euros, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion. Q4 is expected to be a very strong quarter with a gross margin between 51 and 53%. ASML also expects RD expenses of around €1.2 billion and G&A expenses around €320 million for the full year. The company continues to expect total net sales to be around €32.5 billion with a gross margin of around 62%.
Q:How is the market environment expected to affect ASML's business in 2026?
A:The market environment is expected to have a positive impact on ASML's business in 2026 due to continued investment in AI infrastructure, growing AI momentum across customers, and EUV technology adoption. However, ASML anticipates a significant decline in China total net sales in 2026 compared to the strong business in 2024 and 2025. The company expects overall 2026 EUV business to be driven by advanced DRAM and leading edge logic, while the DUV business is expected to be down compared to 2025.
Q:What are the recent technological advancements and collaborations announced by ASML?
A:Recent technological advancements and collaborations include the release of new EUV packaging lithography system, strategic engagement with Mistral AI for EUV, and the shipment of ICL's first EUV integration product, the X.T. 260. ASML also announced a partnership with Mistral AI for embedding AI across its portfolio to increase performance and productivity and an investment of €1.3 billion in Mistral AI's funding round. ASML's technology roadmap is shifting towards more advanced logic and era applications, with a revenue opportunity expected between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, supported by Ina's introduction.
Q:What positive news related to AI infrastructure was mentioned that is expected to create a backlog of opportunities?
A:Positive news related to AI infrastructure includes advancements and announcements that, while not immediately translating into orders, create a positive backlog of opportunities for AI moving forward.
Q:How is the expansion of customers beneficial for AI opportunities and market capacity?
A:The expansion of customers benefits AI opportunities as it ensures that the market capacity will be high enough to respond to the huge demand for goods related to AI infrastructure. This is a positive sign for the long-term growth of the market.
Q:What is the expected impact of the recent AI investment trends on revenues or orders in 2026 and what is the reasoning for the early assessment?
A:It is considered too early to make any comments on the impact of AI investments in 2027, as the order lumpy nature and recent strong order intake in the past two quarters indicate. There is no linearity in order arrival, so it is premature to discuss implications for 2027.
Q:What is the effect of the transition from 14nm to 7nm nodes on the number of EUV layers according to the discussion with customers?
A:The transition from 14nm to 7nm nodes is not expected to lead to a drop in the number of EUV layers. In fact, as the transition continues, the number of EUV layers is expected to continue to grow, supported by discussions with customers.
Q:How is the updated commentary for 2026 reflecting the positive news flow related to AI infrastructure and other factors?
A:The updated commentary for 2026 is positive and reflects the resolution of uncertainties around tariffs and clarity in customer capacity plans. This has led to an expectation of increased EUV usage next year, related to both DRAM and advanced nodes, and the potential for a more balanced market between logic and DRAM.
Q:What are the dynamics contributing to the gross margin guide for the December quarter?
A:The gross margin guide for the December quarter is better than what was previously implied, with volume increases and a positive impact from the upgrade business. A slight improvement in the midpoint growth margin compared to the last quarter, despite some negative elements, contributes to this outlook.
Q:What is the perspective on the potential demand for UV Lathes in satisfying the needs of new customers like HBM and Samsung Foundry by 2030?
A:While the exact number of UV tools needed for potential demand by 2030 is not specified, the focus is on the broadening of the customer base which reduces the risk of market supply limitation. However, making speculations about real capacity needs is cautioned against due to the complex relationship between customers and their actual capacity requirements.
Q:What are the expectations for growth next year and what is the current status of the backlog in relation to this growth?
A:The expectations for growth next year are positive, with a strong indication that UV业务 will be stronger. The company has been preparing for this growth and has worked on long-term capacity. The exit backlog is projected to be around 30 billion, even after considering the high Nana tools, which makes the growth expectations comfortably above model growth for the following year. There is a significant portion of the current backlog with maturity beyond 2026, contributing to the confidence in future growth.
Q:What is the potential impact of uncertainty in the market on the projected growth for 2026?
A:Uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding the pull-in and push-out effects of various factors, makes it extremely challenging to make concrete projections for 2026. The healthy order intake in the backlog that is beyond 2026 does not entirely negate these uncertainties, which is why a definitive call on the growth for 2026 as a strong, high single-digit, or double-digit year cannot be made at this stage.
Q:How does the company prepare for potential disruptions in the supply chain, especially given the recent announcements in the market?
A:The company strives to be ready and flexible in anticipation of market swings, having learned from the experiences of 2022. They have done a lot of work on flexibility, including preparing for longer lead time items and ensuring that they have more flexibility in the face of recent announcements. The company continues to have a dialogue with customers, providing updates and being prepared for growth, which is also in light of the recent market activity. They will have a better understanding of actual results in January and will continue to monitor the market closely.
Q:Is the company receiving adequate signals from its customers regarding potential future demands?
A:The company receives signals from customers and engages in a constant dialogue to understand their needs. The goal is to ensure that customers give timely heads up about their requirements so that the company can adjust its supply chain and manufacturing accordingly. This dialogue occurs on a quarterly basis and the company believes they are well-prepared due to these ongoing discussions and their ability to pivot in response to customer needs.
Q:What is the projected revenue pattern for High K and how will the revenue ramp-up curve look like?
A:The projected revenue pattern for High K will be influenced by the current backlog, with revenue expected to be realized as the data from qualification processes confirm the maturity and performance of the product. The next wave of orders is anticipated towards the second half of the following year. While the company is working on its backlog, it's not solely waiting for orders; they are also making progress in the field. In the next 18 months, the company expects to assess the likelihood of future insertion and continue preparing for growth.
Q:What is the reason behind the significant decline in China revenue expected in 2026?
A:The significant decline in China revenue expected in 2026 is attributed to the company having previously eaten into its backlog by underserving the Chinese market. Sales were initially high as they were working through this backlog. However, the underlying perspective on the Chinese market remains as it was a year ago, which is focused on mainstream logic. The current sales level is considered to be high compared to a normalized level for the mainstream market. This is based on the company's understanding of the market and ongoing customer dialogues. Despite the recent strength in sales, the company's view on the market has not changed, hence the indication of a significant decline in revenue.
Q:Why is the new product considered a significant development?
A:The new product is considered significant because it is the first product from Iml to support Ed integration, which is crucial as customers demand increased transistor density, speed, and accuracy over time.
Q:How does the company expect the new product to perform in the next year?
A:The company expects quite a few customers to be eager to adopt the new technology and believes they will see a substantial benefit from it. This suggests that the business and profitability from the product could be higher than historical levels for i-line scanners.
Q:Can the company expect an increase in gross margins due to the new product and EUV technology?
A:Yes, the company expects an increase in gross margins due to the new product and the increased presence of EUV technology, which has a strong gross margin. However, the exact impact on gross margins will also depend on the number of tools recognized for Heine, which is expected to be dilutive to the corporate gross margin. The final expectations will also consider the mix of products and the composition of the installed base.
Q:What is the current thinking on the installed base as we go into the new year?
A:The current thinking on the installed base for next year indicates that the reputation for the installed base this year has actually gone up. The service business has developed quite nicely, and while there was more upgrade business in the first half, the second half is benefiting from an increase in the service business, which is closely tied to the development of the installed base in EUV.
Q:How sustainable is the upgrade business and what are the expectations for next year?
A:The sustainability of the upgrade business is unclear as it showed a significant drop in the second half of the year. An update on expectations for next year will be provided in January. However, positive developments such as AI investments and more customers benefiting from EUV are anticipated to have a partial impact on 2026 and are indicators of potentially stronger bookings in future quarters.
Q:What advancements have been made with HighNA technology and how does it compare to LowNA technology?
A:Advancements with HighNA technology include the demonstration of final specifications at customers and consistent source performance matching that of LowNA technology. Unlike LowNA, where source performance was a major detractor of maturity, HighNA's source performance is identical to LowNA's, and there are no showstoppers in tool maturity. The main difference now separating HighNA from LowNA is just the platform itself.
Q:What is the outlook for profitability and the operating expenses related to HighNA?
A:Revenue from HighNA is recognized but is dilutive. The profitability will improve with volume growth as the tool has significant capability in the factory and in R&D for HighNA. However, the total cost base will only be absorbed by a limited number of tools. As for operating expenses, the outlook for the cadence of R&D expenses and the R&D burden for the business going forward is expected to be influenced by the increased volume and the availability of the platform.
Q:What is the expected impact of high volume manufacturing in the upcoming timeframe?
A:The expected impact of high volume manufacturing in the upcoming timeframe is that meaningful numbers will be produced, which will lead to improved gross margin profiles. Although high costs are anticipated due to the long time required to achieve significant volume for meaningful contribution, the dilutive nature of these costs will be limited once meaningful numbers are reached.
Q:What is the current gross margin profile like, and how is the company addressing it?
A:The current gross margin profile is very low, described as 'high in a' which stands for high single digits, but it is still loss-making. Despite having high-Na up and running, there is still a formidable roadmap ahead with significant breakthroughs expected in terms of lower Na, productivity of tools, and imaging quality. The company is looking to increase efficiency and extract more value from the organization, aiming to manage both SGA (sales, general, and administrative expenses) and R&D expenses effectively.
Q:What is the impact of AI chips on ASML, and what are the implications of a faster cadence of these chips?
A:The impact of AI chips on ASML is that they are driving more advanced logic and DRAM, although the extent to which this is realized is still to be seen as it is measured in Ed months which is a fraction of a node in terms of timing. With the value that AI chips can extract being justified by more expensive nodes, the industry is changing. The trend is expected to continue, with the 2 nm node being the first proof. The larger customer base for these products is also seen as a potential motivation to move faster on advanced nodes. ASML is closely watching this trend and its implications.
Q:What is ASML's perspective on the concentration of customers in the industry, especially with regards to AI investment?
A:ASML acknowledges the increased concentration of customers, especially in the logic sector, with one customer being particularly active in leading edge investment. This concentration increases volatility in booking backlogs and quarterly revenue. However, the visibility into future revenues is not entirely compromised, and concerns around pricing power are not a major issue as the market size is dictated by what the customer can deliver. Supply limitations are a more significant concern than having only one customer.
Q:How should one think about working capital intensity and the impact of Ina?
A:Working capital intensity is increasing due to factors such as long installation times for systems related to Ina and down payments associated with order intake. ASML acknowledges that reducing cycle time is critical in minimizing working capital and is actively working on this front. However, significant progress requires meaningful volumes. The current working capital levels are considered reasonable for the business as it exists today, and further reductions in cycle time will be the biggest driver of improving working capital levels.
play
English
English
进入会议
1.0
0.5
0.75
1.0
1.5
2.0