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奇富科技(03660.HK,QFIN.US)2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
China's consumer credit industry, bolstered by AI advancements, demonstrated resilience and growth in 2025 despite global economic uncertainty. The sector served millions of users, facilitated increased loan volumes, and improved operational efficiency. Strategic discipline, risk management, and international expansion, particularly in the UK, were key. The company committed to compliance, product optimization, and AI+credit strategy for future digital transformation, while prioritizing shareholder returns through share repurchase programs.
会议速览
In the first half of 2025, the consumer credit industry in China experienced steady growth, driven by AI-driven transformation.
In the first half of 2025, the Chinese consumer credit industry maintained stable growth despite economic uncertainty and regulatory pressure. Through the upgrading of AI technology in credit decision-making and risk management, the industry served more than 60 million users, leading to a year-on-year increase of approximately 140% in total loan amounts. The issuance of ABS reached a record high, while also deepening embedded financial layouts, expanding internet platform cooperation, and achieving high-quality development.
Empowering AI for upgrading banking services and expanding overseas.
The company continues to promote the AI+ banking strategy, upgrade intelligent credit agents, and enhance financial service capabilities. Collaborating with AI hardware suppliers to customize AI devices, improve product competitiveness. The products cover user acquisition, risk management, etc., expected to address the shortage of risk personnel and improve approval efficiency. The bank orders are expected to be launched in Q3. Responding to regulations, optimizing compliance operations. In terms of overseas operations, the small-scale operation in the UK has been initiated, showing good performance. Plans to strengthen risk models and explore more international markets.
Review and Future Outlook of the Second Quarter Financial Report: Revenue, Risk Control, and Shareholder Return.
The second quarter financial report shows that despite facing economic uncertainties, the company still achieved revenue growth, mainly benefiting from the increase in capital-intensive loans. At the same time, the company strengthened risk control, adjusted its business portfolio, and continued to advance shareholder return plans, including stock buybacks and dividends. Looking ahead, the company will adopt a cautious strategy, optimize operational efficiency, and expects third-quarter non-GAAP net profit to be between 160 million and 180 million RMB.
Management's outlook on the growth of loans and the recovery of consumer loan demand, as well as an analysis of changes in fees.
Discussed the management's latest views on the growth of loan volume, pointing out that consumer loan demand may rebound compared to the beginning of the year. At the same time, the latest trends in rates were analyzed, with some areas performing better than expected, and the possibility of rates staying at current levels in the coming years and the factors that may drive change were explored.
Analysis of the impact of weak consumer credit demand and industry regulation adjustments on business.
The dialogue discussed the recent soft demand in the consumer credit market, pointing out that although the government has introduced subsidy policies, the short-term effects are limited. At the same time, industry adjustments have increased the difficulty for some users to obtain loans, affecting business development. Faced with regulatory uncertainties, the company will prioritize risk management and expects that after the implementation of new regulations in the fourth quarter, the market will gradually be cleaned up, industry competition will become more rational, and this will be beneficial for long-term operations and increasing market share.
Impact of new regulatory policies on Ice business and strategies for expanding overseas markets.
Discussed the potential impact of new regulatory policies on Ice business, believed to be beneficial for the long-term health and sustainability of the industry. Ice business will maintain healthy rates, while also evaluating various response plans. Regarding overseas markets, the company values technological capabilities and fair competition, and is promoting growth through organic means and local collaborations. Specific strategies are currently being evaluated.
Technology Drive and Global Expansion: Creating a Respected Financial Technology Enterprise.
The conversation emphasized the importance of technology and operations as core driving forces, pointing out that the key to sustainable survival in the industry cycle lies in having genuine technology and a firm commitment to serving users. The company considers global expansion as a strategic focus, taking into account regulatory environment, fintech acceptance, innovation, and the maturity of financial infrastructure when selecting target markets. Particularly, it places special emphasis on using AI and big data technology advantages to improve user risk assessment accuracy and provide differentiated products and pricing in markets with clear regulations and encouragement for innovation. In overseas markets, such as the UK, the initial focus is on market understanding and risk model optimization, adopting a cautious strategy.
Investor Q&A session: Questions from a representative of a well-known financial institution.
During the investor communication session, a representative from a well-known financial institution raised follow-up questions, aiming to have a better understanding of the progress and strategic direction of the related business, showing the investors' high level of attention and professional insight to market dynamics.
Asset quality and third quarter profit forecast: Risk adjustments and business outlook
The quarterly changes in asset quality were discussed, especially the increase in the C2 ratio, attributed to the increased risks in embedded financial businesses and channel adjustments. Looking ahead, the importance of balancing risk and competitiveness was emphasized. At the same time, the quarterly profit forecast for the third quarter showed a decrease, involving assumptions factors such as loan volume, asset quality, and loan structure.
Facing new regulations and liquidity challenges, optimizing risk management strategies to stabilize lending operations.
Discussed the impact of new regulations and tight liquidity on loan business, as well as measures to address these challenges through optimizing risk management and asset allocation strategies, including enhancing pre-loan approval models, adjusting risk control policies, optimizing recovery strategies, and maintaining adequate reserves to manage potential risks.
Industry adjustment and risk management strategies under regulatory changes.
With the implementation of new regulatory rules, the industry faces challenges of liquidity tightening and risk fluctuations. In response to this situation, further risk management control measures have been taken, it is expected that the loan volume will moderately decrease and the loan portfolio will tilt towards capital-intensive businesses, but the change will not be significant. This move will affect the speed of revenue recognition and profitability, while the risk level is expected to slightly increase but still remain manageable. In terms of financial performance, pricing, financing costs, and customer acquisition costs are expected to remain stable.
Progress and Future Plans of Company Stock Buybacks
The conversation revolves around the company's stock buyback plan. Currently, the $45 million buyback plan has completed the majority, purchasing more stocks than the annual target for 2024, accounting for 9% of the initial number of shares. Faced with market fluctuations and regulatory uncertainties, the company will adopt a flexible strategy to optimize capital allocation efficiency, and will be dedicated to providing industry-leading shareholder returns in the long term.
Outlook for ABS issuance targets and cost of funds in 2025
The 2025 ABS issuance plan was discussed, with the total annual issuance expected to increase by over 30%. Due to the higher proportion of ABS in the funding structure, it is anticipated that the funding cost will significantly decrease. In the first half of 2024, ABS issuances reached 1.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of approximately 45%. The issuance speed will be adjusted in the second half of the year according to liquidity conditions, and it is expected that the funding cost in 2025 will be noticeably lower than in 2024.
要点回答
Q:What challenges did the global economy face in the first half of 2025?
A:In the first half of 2025, the global economy faced growing uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions despite facing external headwinds, with China's economy remaining broadly stable and demonstrating strong resilience.
Q:What reforms are being implemented in the consumer credit industry, and how are they using AI?
A:The consumer credit industry is undergoing supply side reforms under regulatory guidance to provide inclusive and innovative consumer credit solutions. AI is being actively leveraged to drive upgrades across the consumer credit value chain, with a user-centric approach and a focus on the essence of FinTech.
Q:What progress has been made in theABS market and user acquisition?
A:The company maintained a stable funding supply by leveraging diversified funding partnerships and robust asset quality. They issued approximately RMB 7.8 billion inABS during the quarter, a year-over-year increase of about 70%, with issuance costs declining further to a record low. Total new credit line users grew 40% year over year to 1.79 million, and average cost per credit line user decreased slightly. The number of new borrowers increased by approximately 155% year over year.
Q:What is the status of the AI plus bank strategy and new partnerships?
A:The company is advancing its AI plus bank strategy by upgrading its focus procredit tax solution to a next-generation super AI credit agent and entering into a strategic partnership with an AI hardware provider to develop a customized all-in-one AI machine. These will enhance Brb services capabilities and empower key credit approval processes.
Q:What is the new regulatory notice issued by the China's National Financial Regulatory Administration, and how will it affect the industry?
A:The China's National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to strengthen the management of internet loan facilitation business of commercial banks, aiming to enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services. This provides clearer guidance for internet-based lending practices and is expected to improve the health and sustainability of the loan facilitation sector.
Q:What are the company's strategic priorities for the second half of the year?
A:For the second half of the year, the company will prioritize prudent compliance operations, optimize products and services, improve operational efficiency, continue executing the One Core II win strategy, advancing the AI plus credit strategy, enhancing the AI agent platform, and driving digital transformation of financial institutions. They will also continue overseas expansion, with plans to refine risk models, enhance conversion efficiency, and explore international opportunities.
Q:What was the sequential and year-on-year revenue growth for Qi in Q2, and what factors drove this growth?
A:The sequential revenue growth for Qi in Q2 was $3.57 billion compared to $3.11 billion in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of $4.16 billion from a year ago. This growth was mainly driven by higher volume in capital-heavy loans and a modest decline in overall funding costs. The sequential increase also included a larger contribution from platform services, particularly Ice and other value-added services, which more than offset the decline in capital-light loan facilitation. Additionally, platform services accounted for about 25% of the ending loan balance.
Q:What was the impact of recent regulatory changes on loan origination and facilitation, and what is the outlook for pricing?
A:The management of Qi anticipates making timely adjustments to the business mix in response to regulatory updates and rapidly changing market dynamics. The average IRR of the loans originated or facilitated in Q2 was 19.0%, which is flat on a sequential basis. Looking forward, pricing is expected to fluctuate around this level for the coming quarters.
Q:What were the latest non-GAAP net profit figures for Qi, and what were the major factors that impacted it?
A:The non-GAAP net profit for Qi in Q2 was $1.500 billion, compared to $1.93 billion in the prior year's quarter. Factors that impacted the non-GAAP net profit include a loss associated with a currency derivative instrument related to the company's CB issuance in the prior year's quarter, foreign exchange gains, tax rebates, and higher contributions from the capital-heavy model. The effective tax rate for the latest quarter was unusually high due to withholding tax provisions and the distribution of cash from onshore to offshore.
Q:What is the latest business outlook for Qi, especially considering the economic uncertainty and market dynamics?
A:Given the persistent economic uncertainty and rapidly changing market dynamics, the company will continue to adopt a prudent approach in business planning for the remainder of 2025 and focus on enhancing operational efficiency. For the third quarter of 2025, the company expects to generate a non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.8 billion. However, this outlook is subject to material changes and is based on the company's current and preliminary view.
Q:What is the current state of demand for the company's products and what challenges are users facing?
A:Effective demand for the company's products remains soft with recent industry adjustments making it difficult for some users to obtain loans, leading to a rise in demand from this group that does not meet the company's risk standards.
Q:What is the impact of the new regulation on the company's take rate and competitive landscape?
A:The impact of the new regulation on the company's take rate is hard to predict due to the near-term volatility and uncertainty around implementation. However, in the long term, the market is expected to become cleaner with industry consolidation, leading to more rational competition and benefiting the company's operation and take rate.
Q:What is the company's position regarding regulatory changes and how has it performed historically?
A:The company views the new regulatory changes positively, believing they will benefit companies with strong technology capabilities and encouraging fair competition. They have successfully navigated previous regulatory adjustments and expect to do so this time as well.
Q:How is the company approaching its overseas expansion and what factors are considered?
A:The company aims to become one of the most respected FinTech firms globally and sees overseas expansion as a key part of its strategy. Factors considered in selecting target markets include regulatory environment, openness to FinTech, innovation, and financial infrastructure.
Q:What considerations are made for choosing target markets in the company's expansion strategy?
A:The company looks at several factors when choosing target markets, including stable regulatory systems, encouragement of FinTech innovation by regulators, and the maturity of financial infrastructure to apply AI and big data technology effectively.
Q:What is the current status of the company's operations in the UK and what is the approach to understanding the local market?
A:The company's operations in the UK are in a nascent stage with small monthly loan volumes compared to its overall portfolio. The focus is on building understanding of the local market and refining risk models, acknowledging the need for a cautious and trial-and-error approach.
Q:What are the assumptions behind the company's Q3 earnings guidance?
A:The assumptions behind the company's Q3 earnings guidance include loan volume, asset quality, and loan mix. The guidance implies a decline in Q/Q and a wider range, but the specific underlying assumptions are not detailed in the transcript.
Q:What are the delinquency rates and production rates for Q2?
A:In Q2, the day one delinquency rate remained relatively stable, but the production rate decreased from 88.1% in Q1 to 87.3%. The C 2 M2 rate came in at around 0.64%, slightly higher than 0.60% in Q1.
Q:What adjustments were made in response to the increased risk in the embedded finance business?
A:For the embedded finance business, targeted adjustments were made to improve conversion rates for channels with a higher safety margin and to tighten risk standards for those with a lower margin. These adjustments were aimed at maintaining a proper safety margin, and all channels are running within a reasonable balance range.
Q:How did the risk level change for the app business and what was the primary reason?
A:The risk level for the app business increased for existing loans, though to a lesser extent than in the embedded finance business. The primary reason for this increase is the new rules issued in April, which led to a tighter liquidity for some platforms.
Q:What steps were taken to manage risk in the app business?
A:To manage risk, the company further optimized risk management and asset distribution strategies, keeping funding supply stable and improving risk metrics. Specifically, they will look at FPD 7 as a leading indicator for risk matrix for new loans in June, given the incomplete performance of FTD 30.
Q:How did the company respond to the tightened funding supply due to new regulatory rules?
A:The company coordinated across both pre- and post-loan management processes. Pre-loan side enhancements included improving A and B score predictive power and tightening risk control policies. Post-loan side adjustments to collection strategies and operations were implemented, resulting in improved collection rates.
Q:What is the new provision coverage ratio and how does it reflect the company's financial position?
A:The new provision was about 5% of new risk Barry loans, and the provision coverage ratio in Q2 reached 662%, near a record high. This indicates a highly robust financial position with a significant cushion to manage potential risks.
Q:How will the new regulatory rules affect the industry and the company's loan volume and mix?
A:The new regulatory rules are causing industry adjustments, leading to tightening liquidity and increased volatility in risk. As a result, the company has decided to further tighten risk management control. This may lead to a modest decline in loan volume and a shift in the mix towards a higher risk profile, impacting revenue and profitability.
Q:What is the current progress and plan for the share buyback program?
A:The company has executed $500 million of a 450 million share buyback program and reduced the share count by about 9% so far this year. With the current market conditions and regulatory uncertainties, the pace of buyback will be adjusted to enhance capital allocation efficiency. The company remains committed to delivering industry-leading shareholder returns through sustainable growth and a shareholder return program.
Q:What is the ABS issuance target for the remainder of the year and how does it influence funding costs?
A:ABS issuance for the first half of the year was RMB about 14.4 billion, up about 45% from the same period last year. The issuance pace has been seasonal, with stronger demand and liquidity in the first half. In the second half, the pace will slow to balance insurance costs. For the full year of 2025, it is expected that the total EPS will grow by over 30% as a percentage of ABS in the funding mix increases, leading to a decrease in funding cost compared to 2024.
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