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诺和诺德公司 (NVO.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
The earnings call revealed strong sales and profit growth, strategic product updates, and future financial guidance. Notable R&D achievements include a completed phase 2 trial for Corro Metu and upcoming phase 3 trials for Evo and Evo Plus. Financial highlights include a 16% sales increase and a 25% rise in operating profit. The company anticipates further growth in 2025, with a focus on expanding its product portfolio and maintaining shareholder returns.
会议速览
Review and Strategic Update of No Nordics Performance in the first half of 2025
This meeting reviewed No Nordics' performance in the first half of 2025, including sales and profit growth, and adjusted the annual sales expectations, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of the obesity and diabetes markets in the United States. The company emphasized its achievements in sustainable development, patient services, new drug research and development, and partnerships, while also looking ahead to future strategic priorities.
Analysis of global sales growth in the first half of 2025 and performance of the GLP-1 drug market.
In the first half of 2025, global total sales increased by 18%, with diabetes and obesity treatment drugs performing well, particularly GLP-1 drugs. The US market saw growth through adjustments and channel optimization, while the international market performance varied due to different product portfolios and geographic regions. Sales of rare disease drugs grew by 15%, mainly benefiting from the increased market acceptance of Novo Nordisk's Tropin and Sequoia. Sales of diabetes care products in the US increased by 9%, while sales of obesity care products grew by 58%, mainly due to the increased market penetration of drugs like Ozempic.
Sales growth and market expansion strategy for GLP-1 products in the first half of 2025.
In the first half of 2025, sales of GLP-1 products in the US and European markets have significantly increased, particularly in the field of obesity treatment. Despite facing challenges from the illegal compound market, the company has expanded its market share through innovative marketing, direct-to-patient services, and partnerships. At the same time, it is actively advancing the approval of new products and global market layout, and is expected to continue expanding market coverage to more countries in the second half of the year.
Global Diabetes and Obesity Market Expansion and Innovative Treatment Solutions.
The dialogue emphasizes the huge unmet needs of global diabetes and obesity patients, pointing out that currently only a few patients can access GLP-1 drugs or branded weight-loss drugs. Companies promise to expand market coverage, introduce new channels and treatment options, and reduce barriers to accessing innovative therapies through investment in the value chain. Particularly focusing on the potential of the obesity market, aiming to meet the needs of patients with different BMIs through a diverse product portfolio, providing both rapid and gradual treatment options, while ensuring safety and effectiveness.
Overview of the Phase 3 development plan and preliminary research progress for Amacrine drug.
Reviewing the safety and efficacy data of Amacrine drugs in the Phase 1 B2 A trial, significant weight loss effects were demonstrated at different doses. Based on discussions with regulatory agencies, a comprehensive Phase 3 development project called 'Amaze' is planned to be launched in early 2026, aiming to evaluate the potential application of Amacrine in various obesity-related comorbidities, including cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and others, in order to unlock its broad potential in the field of obesity treatment.
Milestone in drug research and development in 2025: Progress in the fields of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.
The conversation outlined key milestones in pharmaceutical research and development in 2025, including the initiation of Phase III trials for CACOCERIA in the field of obesity, positive opinions from EMA for the diabetes treatment drug SEMAFOR, submission of the application for the cardiovascular disease drug ESSENCE in Japan, and the expected results of the Phase III trials for EVO and EVO+ in Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, it mentioned the approval of EHEMA treatment drugs for hemophilia A and B, as well as progress in new drug development in the cardiovascular disease and emerging APY fields, demonstrating innovation and challenges in the pharmaceutical industry across multiple disease areas.
Overview of Sales, Profit Growth, and Financial Performance in the first half of 2025.
In the first half of 2025, sales increased by 16% and 18% respectively in Danish krone and fixed exchange rates, driving the development of the two major operating units. However, the gross profit margin decreased from 84.9% to 83.4%, mainly due to increased costs of capital amortization, depreciation, and capacity expansion. Sales and distribution costs rose by 15%, administrative costs increased by 10%, while operating profit and EBITDA increased by 25% and 60% respectively. Net profit and earnings per share increased by 22% and 23% respectively. Free cash flow decreased to 336 billion Danish krone, mainly due to increased capital expenditure. The board of directors decided to increase the interim dividend by 7% and has returned 365 billion Danish krone to shareholders. Sales growth in 2025 is expected to be between 8% and 14%, while operating profit is expected to increase by 10% to 60%.
2025 Sales and Operations Profit Growth Forecast Lowered and Financial Outlook
The forecast for sales and operating profit growth in 2025 has been lowered due to decreased expectations for growth in the US obesity and diabetes markets. Net financial projects are expected to grow again, primarily driven by anticipated currency gains, especially in the US dollar, partially offset by interest expenses related to debt financing. The effective tax rate is expected to remain at 21%-23%, with capital expenditures projected at 650 billion Danish kroner, and free cash flow is affected by lower-than-expected sales growth. Despite the adjustment in the annual outlook, the company remains confident about the future and is committed to continuing to treat more patients with chronic diseases.
Personnel changes and future strategic prospects of Nokia and Nortel's top management
The high-level personnel changes at Novo Nordisk were announced, including the merger of the research and early development departments, the appointment of a new Chief Scientific Officer and International Operations Leader, and gratitude towards the former leadership. It was emphasized that the focus in the future will be on improving innovation levels, optimizing business execution and operational efficiency to address challenges in the field of chronic disease treatment.
Pharmaceutical companies should respond to changes in US healthcare policies and adjust their market strategies in China.
Discussed the impact of updates to US health insurance policies on drug coverage populations, as well as legal actions taken by companies against the marketing of illegal compounds. At the same time, analyzed the reasons for the increase in inventory in the Chinese market, as well as strategic adjustments in response to intensifying competition, including potential changes in research and development as well as business strategies.
Exploring the Growth of Market Share and Strategic Adjustments in the Chinese Market
The discussion revolved around the growth of the Chinese market, pointing out that the slowdown in growth was not due to a decrease in market share, but rather the need to adjust after clearing the backlog of pre-sales inventory for the Gobi model last year. It emphasized the need to accelerate the market expansion of GLP products, especially in the fields of diabetes and obesity, by covering a wider area through online and offline channels and increasing sales team investment. It expressed confidence in the future Chinese market based on huge unmet demand and an excellent team. It also mentioned the follow-up discussion on strategic building blocks.
Focus on diabetes and obesity, strengthen implementation and financial optimization.
The discussion focused on shifting the company's strategic focus towards the treatment of diabetes and obesity, emphasizing the importance of execution efficiency, and proposing the need to optimize cost structures to support future growth and ensure not falling behind competitors.
Analyze CVS growth drivers and future sales forecasts.
The drivers of CVS growth, including new marketing activities and channel expansion, were discussed, and their impact on overall performance was evaluated. At the same time, forecasts for future sales growth were made, pointing out that despite market fluctuations, the company remains optimistic about growth potential based on existing product portfolio and development of new channels.
Company plans to expand production capacity and introduce new drug for obesity treatment.
Discussed the current production capacity expansion situation of the company, indicating that the capacity is sufficient to support the accelerated development of IO, and it is expected to launch obesity treatment drugs in the United States next year in a non-supply-restricted manner. Also mentioned the possibility of market performance trending towards stability due to supply chain issues.
Priority development of the diabetes and obesity drug market
Discussed priority development strategies in the diabetes and obesity drug market, emphasizing market expansion for Zimbe and Bogovi products, as well as commercial investment and execution for Ozempic and Mogobe.
The company explained the reasons for terminating the development of the Fgf 21 target drug and future strategies.
The company explained the reason for terminating the development of the Fgf 21 target drug, stating that no significant improvement in efficacy was seen in comparison trials with semaglutide. Although the biological value of Fgf 21 is still recognized, the company has decided not to continue advancing this project in light of the current market competitive landscape. Meanwhile, the company remains optimistic about the development of another drug, Mash, whose data package has received priority review from the FDA, with results expected this quarter. The company emphasized that it will continue to focus on the development of assets with differentiation advantages.
Discussion on pricing strategy in the second quarter and the market impact of Surpass Cbot
Discussed pricing strategies for the second quarter, especially price trends and market performance of Govi and Zen. At the same time, analyzed how the launch of Surpass Cbot could potentially change the competitive landscape within the diameter market, especially in competition with Aspi.
Global Pricing Strategy and Market Competitive Situation Analysis
The dialogue delved into global pricing strategy, emphasizing that the main reasons for price erosion in the second quarter were channel optimization and increased convenience in patient acquisition, as well as the significant performance of product advantages in the market competition, especially in the remarkable effects of cardiovascular risk reduction. This highlights the importance of strategic targeting different patient groups and doctors in market expansion.
Discussion on capital expenditure and long-term cash flow development and exploration of We Go's impact on cash channels restart.
The discussion revolves around the expected time and amount for adjusting capital expenditures to maintain the levels and the potential impact of We Go restarting on the changing trends in cash channels. Participants inquired about when capital expenditures can be reduced to long-term maintenance levels and the expected amount, while also exploring the importance of the change in cash channel adoption rates after We Go restarts.
Discussion on company's capital expenditure strategy and product launch plan in the US market.
Discussed the relationship between capital expenditures (CapEx) and long-term growth opportunities for the company, emphasizing the importance of CapEx investments in core businesses and assets, and predicting that CapEx will gradually decrease in the coming years. At the same time, expectations for product launches in the U.S. market were mentioned, including rapid market entry plans after product approval and a multi-channel sales strategy to meet the needs of different patients.
Detailed guidance on revenue growth and product development.
Discussed the assumptions affecting annual revenue growth, as well as the possibility of stagnant or decreasing revenue in the next fiscal year. At the same time, issues regarding the clinical trial scale and market access requirements of single-chamber equipment for R&D projects were raised, as well as considerations on whether the current production capacity meets demand.
Pharmaceutical company guidelines adjustment and product development progress discussion.
The conversation revolved around the adjustment of the pharmaceutical company's guidelines, progress in product development, and future plans. The company emphasized that their guidelines are based on current trends but are flexible to respond to unforeseen events. At the same time, the company is pushing forward with the clinical equivalence validation of its products, without the need for a complete phase III clinical trial. Additionally, the company is confident in its future market performance, expecting to demonstrate its strength through empirical data, and expressed gratitude and blessings to the senior executives who are about to depart.
要点回答
Q:What are the reasons behind the lower sales growth expectations for the second half of 2025?
A:The lower sales growth expectations for the second half of 2025 are related to lower growth expectations for the COVID in the US obesity market, lower growth expectations for C in the US Type 1 diabetes market, and lower than expected penetration for a product in select international markets.
Q:What actions is No Nordics taking to address the issue of unsafe compounding and ensure patient access to legitimate GLP-1s?
A:No Nordics is working to prevent unlawful and unsafe compounding of semalam time in the US while ensuring patients have access to safe, legitimate GLP-1s produced by No Nordics. It launched Novo Care Pharmacy in March 2025, and the penetration of GLP-1s within the cash channel is now around 10% of total prescriptions.
Q:What is the overall market share of No Nordics in international operations (IO)?
A:No Nordics remains the market leader in IO with a total diabetes and obesity GLP-1 volume market share of 71%.
Q:What is the company's strategy to reach more patients with its diabetes and obesity treatments?
A:No Nordics' strategy includes investing across the value chain to gradually expand the diabetes and obesity markets, reaching new patient groups, and physician segments, introducing new channels and treatments, and reducing barriers to access to innovative treatments and devices.
Q:What are the characteristics of the obesity market that the speaker mentioned?
A:The obesity market includes a diverse range of patient segments with varying needs for weight loss and comorbidities such as atherosclerosis, heart failure, fibrosis, and obstructive sleep apnea. The portfolio aims to address these needs with subcutaneous and oral delivery methods and differentiated treatment goals to support both rapid and gradual weight loss.
Q:What were the results of the phase 1 B2A trial with subcutaneous acide in people with overweight and obesity?
A:The phase 1 B2A trial showed that the safety profile for the drug was consistent with that of base therapies. The most common adverse events were mild to moderate and primarily gastrointestinal. Respondents treated with the drug experienced estimated body weight losses of 9.7%, 16.2%, and 22% after a 12-week maintenance period at doses of 1.25 mg, 5 mg, and 20 mg, respectively. The 60 mg dose resulted in a significant 24.3% estimated body weight loss after 36 weeks.
Q:What are the details of the comprehensive Phase 3 development program for amacrine?
A:The comprehensive Phase 3 development program for amacrine, named MA, is set to start in the first quarter of 2026. It will assess the weight loss potential of amacrine with multiple maintenance doses, both subcutaneous and oral routes of administration, and evaluate obesity-related comorbidities such as atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, knee osteoarthritis, and obstructive sleep apnea.
Q:What significant accomplishments in the field of obesity and diabetes treatment have been made recently?
A:Significant accomplishments include the initiation of redefined 11 phase 3 trials for cacoceria, the submission of semaglutide at 7.2 mg for approval in the EU, and the anticipation of the internal triple GLP-1/GP-1 readout. Notably, the OIC label update for treating peripheral arterial disease in people with type 2 diabetes received a positive EMA opinion. In addition, there are positive results for cardiovascular benefits and kidney disease risk reduction with semaglutide 1.0 mg in type 2 diabetes patients.
Q:What new indication has asparaglutide received for hemophilia A?
A:Asparaglutide has been approved by the FDA for once-daily prophylactic treatment to prevent or reduce the frequency of bleeding episodes in adults and children 12 years of age and older with hemophilia A or B without inhibitors. A positive opinion was also received from the EMA for this use.
Q:What is the current status of the Phase 2 trial with Corr and the planned Phase 3 trial for early Alzheimer's disease?
A:The phase 2 trial with Corr in acute decompensated heart failure has successfully completed and phase 3 initiation is expected in 2025. Additionally, the readout of the Evo and Evo plus phase 3 trials in patients with early Alzheimer's disease is anticipated towards the end of 2025.
Q:How did sales and operating profit growth perform in the first six months of 2025?
A:Sales in the first six months of 2025 grew by 16% in Danish krona and 18% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit increased by 25% measured in Danish krona and by 29% at constant exchange rates. EBITDA increased by 60% measured in Danish krona and 19% at constant exchange rates.
Q:What changes are being made to the board of directors regarding the interim dividend?
A:The board of directors has decided to increase the interim dividend by 7% compared to August 2024, to be paid out in August this year. A total of 36.5 billion Danish kroner was returned to shareholders mainly as dividends in the first six months of 2025.
Q:What are the key updates to the financial outlook for 2025?
A:The financial outlook for 2025 has updated sales growth expectations to be between 8% and 14% at constant exchange rates, with operating profit growth now expected to be between 10% and 60% at constant exchange rates.
Q:What is the reason behind the reduced sales outlook for 2025?
A:The reduced sales outlook for 2025 is attributed to lower growth expectations for the second half of the year, specifically in the US obesity market, the CPE market in the EU, and select emerging markets.
Q:What role is Martin Lange taking on and what is his background?
A:Martin Lange has been appointed Chief Scientific Officer and will resume responsibility for research and development starting tomorrow. He has been with Novo Ndi for many years, bringing deep scientific expertise, strong leadership, and longstanding experience to his new role.
Q:What is the expected impact of the formulary update by CVS, and how many people are expected to switch to Novo Nordisk's products?
A:The impact on Pres in the lily suggests that the formulary update by CVS could affect roughly 200,000 lives. It is unclear how many of those people will actually switch to Novo Nordisk's products.
Q:Has Novo Nordisk initiated any legal action regarding personalized GLP-1 dosing and compounding?
A:The company is pleased with the progress of the CBS formulary conversion and is taking legal actions to protect patient safety and ensure compliance with laws. They are increasing dialogue with the FDA and considering pressure on entities that are false advertising and misleading patients with illegal APIs. However, the company does not specify whether they have initiated particular litigation for this purpose.
Q:What is the reason for lower growth in China, and what is the strategy to address it?
A:The lower growth in China is not due to market share loss but is attributed to stock adjustments made in anticipation of Gobi launches. The company is focusing on accelerating the growth of GLP-1 in both diabetes and obesity, expanding offline and online销售渠道, and increasing investment in the GLP-1 sales force. They are confident about China's future due to the large unmet need for diabetes and obesity and their strong local team.
Q:What are the strategic priorities going forward?
A:The strategic priorities going forward include focusing more on diabetes and obesity, increasing execution and agility, and realigning the cost base to ensure growth opportunities are capitalized on. The company plans to execute and outcompete the competition, as demonstrated in IO, and allocate resources where growth is identified.
Q:How will the recent CVS bonus impact the company's growth and what is the growth rate once the bonus is complete?
A:The impact of the increased alfi move versus remaining underlying growth is not clearly detailed, but the focus is on the completion of the CVS bonus and its subsequent effect on the company's growth rate. The consensus has fallen out at about 9% sales EBIT growth, but further analysis is needed to ascertain the precise growth rate once the bonus is fully realized.
Q:What are the current trends and future expectations for CVS conversion and weight loss campaigns?
A:CVS conversion is still in the early days, with July data showing increases largely in line but more data expected. The uptick in numbers is attributed to both CVS and other commercial efforts, including a new weight loss campaign for lugovi as the primary message. The company plans to continue expanding its relationship with noble care pharmacy and see opportunities to partner with organizations like telehealth to expand the cash channel. Another product, ozempic, will be offered in noble care pharmacy in the second half of the year.
Q:What are the strategic priorities and growth opportunities for the company in the coming year?
A:The company is pursuing innovation-based growth focusing on markets with unmet needs, specifically diabetes and obesity. They aim to continue driving growth with their current portfolio and upcoming launches such as al obesity and cash channels in the US and abroad. The company expects low single-digit group sales growth next year, impacted by specific markets in IO. The priority is expanding with zimbe in type 2 diabetes and with bogovi in the obesity market, along with a forthcoming launch and oral sema for obesity.
Q:What is the company's position regarding capacity for accelerating its initiatives and future plans for obesity treatments?
A:The company is scaling fast with market penetration and new launches, seeing a fourfold increase in Gro in IO. They have launched in additional markets rapidly and expect to continue this pace. Regarding old C for obesity, the company plans to launch in the US next year without supply restrictions. The company's focus on launches and investments is reflected in the priorities of expanding with zimbe and bogovi, and the expectation of a non-supply restricted launch for the old C for obesity is aligned with these priorities.
Q:Why was the development of Sotagliflozin and Mounjotin discontinued, and does the company still have interest in the FGF21 target?
A:The development of Sotagliflozin and Mounjotin was discontinued because they were not differentiated in a meaningful way. A trial comparing the two against semaglutide did not show a dramatic improvement in efficacy. While the data is strong, it does not substantially differentiate from the existing treatments. The company's approach is to not progress assets without a meaningful differentiation.
Q:How does the company view the impact of Surpass-2 on competitive dynamics in the diabetes market and with respect to Takeda's drug, Tanzeum?
A:The company has observed headline data from a study which did not demonstrate a benefit versus the label type for Surpass-2. However, the study did show script CV risk reduction versus placebo. It appears that among inputs, the CV profile of the drug stands out, which is important for patient comorbidities. The company emphasizes the unique profile of their products and the importance of highlighting the quality of the CV profile for various stakeholders, including endocrinologists, GPs, and patients. The differentiation of their GLP-1 receptor agonists is a key selling point as the market expands.
Q:What is the reasoning behind the current level of CapEx investment and what are the expectations for future maintenance levels?
A:The current level of CapEx investment is directly related to the opportunities in unmet needs, specifically in areas like diabetes and obesity. The speaker believes that the investments are in the core of the company, encompassing both marketed and pipeline assets. The expectation is that they are fairly close to the peak of CapEx investment and, as assets are concluded, there will be a gradual decline. The historical maintenance level of CapEx has been around 5-10% of sales, and they anticipate it to be in the low double digits. CapEx is expected to be higher if there is a growth outlook and pipeline projects come to fruition.
Q:When is the anticipated approval and launch of the We Go product, and how will it be launched?
A:The anticipated approval for the We Go product is towards the end of 2025. The company is excited about the potential approval and is fully underway with launch readiness activities. The speaker mentions that the exact timing of the launch will be closely aligned with approval but does not provide specific details.
Q:What are the pricing strategy and launch readiness activities for the We Go product?
A:The speaker does not provide specific details on the pricing strategy for the We Go product. However, they acknowledge that a cash channel option exists and that launching the product through this channel is a long-term view from their perspective, particularly for obesity products. They express an intention to meet patients' needs regardless of their access options, whether through insurance or other means.
Q:What assumptions underlie the guidance for the second half of the year and next year, particularly regarding revenue growth and group revenue?
A:The guidance for the second half of the year and next year is not built with the low end in mind, indicating that the company is closer to the center of their base case. This base case is informed by script numbers and the run rate in IO markets and launches. The guidance range includes a low range to account for unforeseen events, such as potential gross to net adjustments in the US due to a rebate provision. Additionally, the company is seeing volatility in the obesity market, which affects the construction of the guidance range.
Q:What is the approach to establishing clinical equivalence for the single chamber device?
A:To establish clinical equivalence for the single chamber device, the company does not need to conduct a full phase 3 program. However, they do need to demonstrate a clinical equivalent, showing similar efficacy and safety potential as the dual chamber device. This is in progress from a manufacturing perspective and does not require a new build fill finish.
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