Chewy (CHWY.US) 2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Chewy reported surpassing Q1 2025 earnings expectations with an 8% net sales increase, driven by growth in active customers and robust profitability. Strategic highlights include the expansion of Chewy Vet Care, successful migration to a first-party sponsored ads platform, and the balanced approach to managing demand and supply, contributing to active customer growth and retention.
会议速览

The call begins with a welcome and an introduction to the speakers, followed by an overview of Chewie's first quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025. The presentation and earnings release are made available online. Discussion includes forward-looking statements, non-GAAP financial measures, and risks associated with the company's performance. The call concludes with an announcement about the webcast and replay availability.

Chewie reported a strong start to 2025, with Q1 net sales exceeding guidance by increasing over 8% to $3.12 billion, driven by new and existing customers across various offerings. Auto ship sales reached a record high, representing 82% of Q1 net sales and growing nearly 15%. Active customer base grew to 20.8 million, reflecting 3.8% year-over-year growth. Gross margin expanded by approximately 60 basis points year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased by about 120 basis points. The company also generated nearly $50 million in free cash flow and deployed $23.2 million toward share repurchases. Strategic initiatives including Chewie Vet Care, sponsored ad business, and the Chewie Plus membership program showed promising progress.

In the first quarter of 2025, Chewie reported an 8.3% year-over-year net sales growth to $3.12 billion, exceeding guidance. Active customer growth increased by 3.8%, reaching 20.8 million customers. Auto ship customer sales grew by 14.8% to $2.56 billion, representing 82.2% of total net sales. Gross margin expanded by approximately 60 basis points year-over-year, and adjusted net income rose 8.6% to $148.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin saw a 50 basis point year-over-year expansion to 6.2%, with a free cash flow of $48.7 million.

The company reports first-quarter financials, including $23.2 million spent on share repurchases and a strong liquidity position. It forecasts second-quarter net sales between $3.06-$3.09 billion and full-year net sales between $12.3-$12.45 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook for the full year is 5.4%-5.7%, with an expectation of 75 basis points year-over-year margin expansion. The company anticipates continued investment in business growth and shareholder returns, maintaining a debt-free status. Leadership expresses confidence in the company's strategy and team, despite the bittersweet nature of an impending leadership change.

The company is experiencing low single-digit growth in customer accounts, driven by strong execution and efforts rather than market normalization. Industry growth is estimated at 3-4%, with the company aiming to grow at twice the market rate through active ad growth and increased share of wallet. Household formation remains flat, and pricing strategies are not significantly impacted by inflation, although the industry may adjust pricing in response to tariffs on discretionary categories.

The company discusses its progress and strategy regarding sponsored ads, emphasizing the successful first-party platform migration enabling support for new content formats, self-service, and both onsite and offsite advertising. The dialogue highlights increasing demand for offsite opportunities and the continuation of positive momentum into 2025, with an expectation for a strong year in sponsored advertising.

The focus in 2025 is on expanding the product suite into social and off-site categories, building on previous success in the consumables sector. Efforts are concentrated on increasing supply, enhancing utilization rates, and maintaining high ROI expectations through close alignment with partners. Additionally, a key platform is being developed to improve supplier experience and analytics capabilities, aiming to flow a greater portion to the bottom line while maintaining high margins, albeit slightly lower for off-site products.

The discussion focuses on the sustainability of active customer growth, highlighting improved retention rates and new marketing strategies. Key factors include a broader marketing funnel, product enhancements, and an increasing mix of auto-ship and repeatable category sales, leading to improved reorder rates and confidence in future revenue growth.

The dialogue discusses the successful expansion of Chewie Plus, a loyalty program offering benefits like free shipping and rewards, noting increased membership growth, active sessions, orders frequency, and cross-category penetration. Early results show strong net sales growth and incremental contribution profit, with plans to continue ramping up membership while maintaining discipline on contribution profit. Additional loyalty programs, including auto ship, also show significant engagement and growth, contributing to overall active customer growth and optimism for the year.

The company has seen a significant increase in auto ship customer sales from 66% to 82% since the IPO, attributed to improved acquisition, retention strategies, and a personalized digital experience. Additionally, hard goods growth at 12% is driven by a focus on assortment freshness, better inventory lifecycle management, enhanced discoverability, and personalized website experiences, with notable successes across all subcategories due to active customer growth and refreshed assortment.

Chewy reports strong momentum and market share gains, capturing more of the dollars moving online than in previous quarters. Gross margins within the core business are queried, with inquiries about potential changes or promotions affecting margins, alongside questions on operating expenses and the impact of automation efforts on leverage.

The company reported a successful Q1 with a gross margin that expanded over 60 basis points year over year on a normalized basis, excluding one-time benefits from the previous year. Gross margin growth was the single biggest contributor to the EBITDA increase, with sponsored ads and product mix accretion following. The company expects a sequential increase in gross margin from Q1 to Q2 and anticipates that the majority of the year-over-year EBITDA increase will be driven by gross margin improvements. Operating expenses were also managed effectively, with a focus on leveraging Opex lines and maintaining consistent advertising and marketing expenses.

Chewy is taking a measured approach to expanding its vet clinic services, with plans to add approximately 10 clinics in 2025, bringing the total to the high teens. The company is pleased with the performance of existing clinics, noting strong booking rates and higher-than-expected new customer acquisition. About half of new customers introduced to Chewy through the vet clinics make additional purchases from the website within 30 days. The expansion into vet services opens up a significant market opportunity, estimated at over $20 billion, and also boosts the pharmacy business. Chewy is excited about contributing to and benefiting from the growing pet health sector, including newer technologies like telehealth and software solutions. The vet clinic expansion is seen as a defensible mode of customer engagement, similar to auto ship and 2E plus programs, allowing customers to discover Chewy in new ways and increasing share of wallet.

Chewy discusses the lack of significant inflation in the pet industry despite tariffs, noting continued trends toward premiumization driven by pet humanization. They also highlight equal growth in both dog and cat product sales.
要点回答
Q:What are the highlights of Chey's first quarter 2025 results?
A:The highlights of Chey's first quarter 2025 results include top line results exceeding expectations, continued growth in active customers, solid profitability, and free cash flow generation.
Q:What is the growth of Q1 Net sales and what contributed to this performance?
A:Q1 Net sales grew by over 8% to $3.12 billion, underpinned by strong participation from new and existing customers across a variety of Chey's offerings and a favorable mix of core consumables and health and wellness categories. Notable was the 12.3% year-over-year growth in hard goods.
Q:What is the significance of the auto ship subscription program in Chey's Q1 results?
A:The auto ship subscription program is a pillar of strength and differentiation for Chey, enabling high visibility and predictability in the business while also enhancing customer loyalty. Q1 auto ship customer sales of $2.56 billion represented approximately 82% of Q1 net sales, setting a record high for the company, and growing by nearly 15%.
Q:What was the adjusted EBITDA performance for the quarter and how does it compare to the prior year?
A:The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $192.7 million, representing a 6.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, and a year-over-year increase of approximately 50 basis points, adjusting for one-time items that positively impacted the first quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin by about 120 basis points year over year.
Q:What is the progress with the vet care or CBC initiative?
A:Since the last earnings call, Chey has opened three additional vet care practices, bringing the current count to 11 locations across four states. The initiative continues to outperform expectations in terms of demand generation and broader ecosystem benefits, and Chey is on track to open 8 to 10 new clinics in fiscal year 2025.
Q:What updates are provided on the sponsored ad business and the Tui Plus membership program?
A:The sponsored ad business has performed well, growing sequentially, and the migration to the 1 P platform has enabled the expansion of off-site ads. The Tui Plus membership program has transitioned out of beta phase following a successful testing period, indicating an expansion of loyalty and engagement with the Chey Plus paid membership program.
Q:What is the long-term outlook for Chey as per the CEO's perspective?
A:The CEO is confident in Chey's ability to deliver on the strategic roadmap and long-term financial model outlined at Capital Markets Day in December 2023. This confidence is grounded in Chey's execution to date and the meaningful progress made towards these goals. The company expects to achieve over 220 basis points of margin expansion, with approximately 80% of the expected profitability converting into free cash flow, while continuing to fund strategic growth initiatives. The path to achieving the long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target of 10% is supported by early-life cycle key verticals and programs like Auto Ship.
Q:What prompted the departure of Dave Reader, CFO of Chewie?
A:Dave Reader, CFO of Chewie, is leaving the company to pursue a CEO role in the semiconductor industry.
Q:How did Chewie's first quarter net sales grow year over year?
A:Chewie's first quarter net sales grew 8.3% year over year to $3.12 billion, exceeding the high end of the Q1 guidance range.
Q:What is the expectation forSG&A expenses and advertising and marketing expenses in fiscal year 2025?
A:The expectation forSG&A expenses in fiscal year 2025 is modest leverage driven by a scale fixed cost infrastructure and ongoing discipline and efficiency with respect to corporate payroll. Advertising and marketing expenses are expected to be in line with the results of the last two years, approximately 6.7% to 6.8% of net sales in fiscal year 23 and 24, consistent with the previously stated long-term target range of 6 to 7% of net sales.
Q:What is the projected adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter?
A:The projected adjusted net income for the first quarter is $148.9 million, an 8.6% increase year over year, with an adjusted diluted earnings per share at the high end of the guidance range at 35 cents. The adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter is $192.7 million, representing a 6.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, which is an approximate 50 basis points year over year margin expansion.
Q:What is the projected range for adjusted diluted earnings per share in the full year 2025?
A:The projected range for adjusted diluted earnings per share in the full year 2025 is from 30 to 35 cents.
Q:What is the company's outlook for free cash flow in full year 2025?
A:The company expects approximately 80% of adjusted EBITDA to convert into free cash flow for full year 2025, with capital expenditures at the low end of the previously stated range of 1.5 to 2% of net sales.
Q:What is the plan for capital returns and future share repurchases?
A:The company continues to reinvest free cash flow back into the business while returning capital to shareholders through periodic open market repurchases. In the first quarter, approximately 665,000 shares were repurchased for a total of $23.2 million, with $383.5 million of remaining capacity under the existing share repurchase program. The company ended the quarter with approximately $616 million in cash and cash equivalents and remains debt-free with an overall liquidity position of approximately $1.4 billion.
Q:What are the company's expectations for net sales growth in the second quarter and the full year 2025?
A:The company expects second quarter 2025 net sales of between $3.06 and $3.09 billion, indicating approximately 7 to 8% year over year growth. For the full year 2025, the net sales outlook is between $12.3 and $12.45 billion, or approximately 6 to 7% year over year growth when adjusted to exclude the impact of the 53rd week in fiscal year 2024.
Q:What factors contributed to the company's Q1 results?
A:The company's Q1 results are attributed to the strength of execution and their own efforts.
Q:What are the reasons for the improved customer retention and ad quality?
A:The improved customer retention and ad quality are due to the company adding more customers and increasing retention rates, resulting in lower gross short churn. The algorithm has produced a cohort of higher-quality ads compared to those seen during the pandemic.
Q:How is the industry growth forecast for the year and how does it relate to the company's guidance?
A:The industry growth forecast is based on adoption and relinquishment trends, with household formation being flat and top-line growth estimated at 3 to 4%. The company's guidance reflects a share-gaining plan growing at roughly two times the market growth rate, with no baked-in inflation assumptions. Pricing adjustments in response to tariffs could occur, but are not currently reflected in the guidance, which is primarily driven by structural growth from active ads and share of wallet increases.
Q:What progress has been made in sponsored ads and how is the company expanding its advertising offerings?
A:The company has made great progress with sponsored ads, particularly with the first-party platform migration at the beginning of the year, which supports new content formats like video and enables self-service and both on-site and off-site advertising. This has led to continued momentum in sponsored ads, with plans to expand the product suite into social and off-site areas and into other categories, increasing the supply and utilization rates. The company is closely aligned with partners to activate more and more dollars for supply and is pleased with the utilization and transparency in ROI expectations, which have been exceeded.
Q:What is the company's strategy for managing demand and supply in the advertising business?
A:The company's strategy for managing demand and supply involves expanding the product suite and increasing supply in social and off-site areas, as well as in other categories. The focus is on activating more partners and increasing dollars from suppliers to drive higher utilization rates. The company is closely monitoring ROI expectations, which have been exceeded, ensuring a balance between demand and supply. The strategy also includes utilizing a platform that improves the flow-through to the bottom line and enhancing the supplier experience with greater analytical capabilities.
Q:What is the sustainability of active customer growth and how is the company improving retention?
A:The sustainability of active customer growth is enabled by the company's focus on improving retention for existing customers. The sources of new gross ads are not specifically mentioned but are implied to be a part of the company's strategy moving forward. Improving retention has been a key focus, and the company has made progress in this area which is enabling continued growth.
Q:What factors are attributed to the company's sustainability and momentum?
A:The company attributes its sustainability and early stages of gaining momentum to a broader marketing funnel and strategy, improvements in the product (frontstore and app), and the quality of customer retention which drives confidence in the revenue flywheel.
Q:How are new customer acquisition trends and customer retention performing?
A:New customer acquisition is trending at low single digits higher year over year. New customer reorder rates have shown a steady improvement year over year and are up by low single digit percentage points compared to previous cohorts, indicating that both acquisition tactics and customer retention efforts are effective.
Q:What are the details and outcomes of expanding the 'chew' program?
A:The 'chew' program expanded to all customers offers free shipping, 5% rewards, limited-time exclusive offers, and a free 30-day trial followed by a one-time introductory fee of $49 for the year. Since its expansion, it has shown strong net sales growth with members contributing positively to incremental profit and member growth.
Q:What is the company's view on loyalty programs and how they contribute to customer growth?
A:The company is pleased with the growth in brand awareness, conversion of brand awareness to active customers, and the reduction in customer churn. They are optimistic about the customer growth and the momentum carried into the second quarter, as well as the potential implications for the year.
Q:How has the path to becoming an auto ship customer evolved, and what are the drivers of the growth in hard goods?
A:The path to becoming an auto ship customer has evolved with the percentage of auto ship customers increasing from 66% to 82% over several years. The company is seeing improvements in the customer experience and assortment in hard goods, which has resulted in 12% growth. Specific changes in assortment and experience are not detailed, but they are contributing to the growth in this segment.
Q:What is the roadmap for acquisition into auto ship?
A:The roadmap for acquisition into auto ship follows the concept of 'brilliance in the basics of retail,' which includes a high assortment of products, high stock availability, and a powerful, personalized digital experience that enables customers to discover products easily, resulting in a higher conversion rate.
Q:How is customer loyalty structured according to the company's model?
A:Customer loyalty is structured in concentric circles, starting with high touch service during the market approach, then building around programs like ownership, and introducing newer complementary programs like Chime+.
Q:What factors contributed to the company's good growth?
A:The company's good growth is attributed to 'brillance in the basics,' team resilience, and quality execution. This includes freshness and newness of assortment, better inventory lifecycle management, discoverability, and a personalized approach that improves the online shopping experience.
Q:How has the assortment in hardgoods categories performed year over year?
A:The assortment in hardgoods categories has seen year-over-year growth across almost all subcategories, reflecting the company's efforts in active customer growth, share of wallet penetration, and the refresh of assortment by the team.
Q:What achievements in brand addition and onboarding efficiency have been made?
A:The company has added over 150 new brands to the portfolio in the last two quarters and reduced the time to onboard SKUs by about 40% to 50%, thus offering customers more choices and improving the speed of market response.
Q:What is the estimated industry growth and the company's share of that growth?
A:The industry is estimated to grow by 3 to 4% with an online penetration of about 30% to 35%, equating to roughly $4 billion in additional revenue moving online. The company is gaining roughly 50 cents of every dollar shifting online, which is higher than the historical rate of 40 to 42 cents.
Q:How does the company view its performance in gross margins and the moving pieces affecting them?
A:The company is pleased with its gross margin performance, which came in largely as expected and expanded by more than 60 basis points year over year, normalized for one-time items from the prior year. Sequentially, gross margin is expected to increase from Q1 to Q2, with gross margin improvements being a major driver of EBITDA growth.
Q:What is the expectation for gross margin improvements from Q1 to Q2?
A:The company expects gross margin to increase sequentially from Q1 to Q2 and reiterated that the majority of the year-over-year EBITDA increase is expected to be driven by gross margin improvements.
Q:What are the key factors contributing to the company's first quarter revenue growth?
A:The key factors contributing to the company's first quarter revenue growth include market share gains, revenue from active customer growth, normalization of year-over-year comparison, gross margin expansion, record EBITDA margin, and continued momentum in the second quarter.
Q:What is the expected contribution from gross margin and operating expenses in the second quarter and year-end?
A:The expected contribution from gross margin in the second quarter and throughout the year is a normalization with continued leverage from operating expenses. Operating expenses for Q1 were satisfactory, and the company expects to get more contribution from gross margin in the second quarter and the latter half of the year on a year-over-year basis.
Q:How is the new vet clinic rollout strategy and what is the anticipated impact on the business?
A:The company's strategy for rolling out vet clinics is measured, with a focus on performance and the number of clinics expected to grow in 2025. They are pleased with the performance of maturing vet clinics, customer utilization growth, and strong booking rates. Approximately half of new customers visiting the clinics follow up within 30 days with a purchase. This indicates a positive vet retention rate and performance across various metrics for the clinics.
Q:What is the potential market size for the company's vet services and how does this impact their business?
A:The potential market size for the company's vet services in the U.S. is around $20 billion. This enables the company to tap a portion of the market and grow their pharmacy business by gaining insights into the full spectrum of pharmacy services offered within the clinics. The company is quite pleased with the results and customer feedback regarding the services received.
Q:How does the company plan to expand its offerings and what is the TAM expansion potential?
A:The company plans to expand its offerings by bringing a comprehensive solution to a fragmented pet health sector, which includes new technologies like telehealth triage and insurance. This vision of the stack they're building is expected to contribute to expanding the Total Addressable Market (TAM) beyond what is currently captured. They also view programs like CBC in a similar light to auto-ship or 2E+; as ecosystem concepts that allow customer discovery and expansion of engagement with the brand across various points of entry.
Q:What are the company's views on pricing and the impact of tariffs on product costs?
A:The company observes very little inflation in the industry and continues to see a trend towards premiumization as customers opt for better quality pet products. However, there has been no significant increase in like-for-like product pricing due to tariffs, and the impact is even less noticeable in the hard goods category because the inventory impacted by potential tariffs is still in suppliers' locations onshore. The company's portfolio is mostly consumables with domestic input source streams, which means they see minimal impact from tariffs in fiscal year 25 and any related impacts have been embedded in their guidance.
Q:How has the company's business performed in terms of dogs versus cats?
A:The company's business has performed well across all segments, with no preference for either dogs or cats. The proportion of cats being a popular choice has been balanced by strengthening in the dog business. The company drove 6% year-over-year growth in consumables, which accounted for roughly 50% of the overall growth for the company.

Chewy, Inc.
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