好市多公司(COST.US)2025财年第三季度业绩电话会
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Costco Wholesale Corporation reported significant progress in Q3 FY2025, including the opening of nine new warehouses, a 13% increase in net income, enhanced member value through price reductions and extended service hours, successful navigation of tariffs and supply chain challenges, and innovations in digital offerings. The company also saw growth in membership and improvements in gross margins, despite increased SG&A expenses due to investments in employee wages.
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The company discusses its third quarter 2025 performance, highlighting new warehouse openings, financial results, competitive pricing strategies, and the success of the Kirkland Signature brand. They also address the impact of tariffs, investments in digital technology, and initiatives to enhance the member experience.

The company reported a net income of $1.9 billion for the third quarter, marking a 13% increase from the previous year. Despite challenges including a LIFO charge, employee vacation day accruals, and negative impacts from foreign exchange rates, net sales reached $61.96 billion, an 8% increase. Key metrics showed growth in comparable sales, e-commerce sales, and membership fee income, while renewal rates saw slight decreases attributed to digital acquisitions and new memberships from promotional campaigns.

The company experienced a 6.8% increase in paid household members and a 6.6% rise in cardholders year-over-year, with executive memberships growing by 9%. Gross margin improved by 41 basis points year-over-year to 11.25%, driven significantly by the fresh departments due to sales leverage and lower commodity costs, particularly dairy, butter, eggs, and olive oil. Food and sundry margins saw an increase, enabled by price reductions on eggs and butter, while non-food margins were slightly up worldwide but down slightly in the US. Improved margins in gas and e-commerce were key drivers of the overall gross margin increase.

LIFO negatively affected the gross margin rate by 23 basis points, with a $130 million LIFO charge in Q3 2025 compared to an $11 million credit in the previous year. The reported SGNA rate increased year over year by Ed basis points, influenced by investments in employee wages and partially offset by sales leverage and productivity improvements. Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately lynx billion dollars, with an estimated total for the year of over Ed billion dollars. Fresh categories experienced high single-digit comparable sales growth, led by double-digit increases in meat and strong performance in produce. Non-foods also saw high single-digit comp sales growth, with gold and jewelry, toys, housewares, and home furnishings all up double digits. Food and sundries had mid to high single-digit comps, with cooler and frozen food showing the strongest results.

In Q3 2025, Costco successfully lowered prices on various products, including butter, eggs, and specific Kirkland Signature items, leveraging locally sourced production and moving items to Asia for APAC warehouses. The company introduced over 100 new Kirkland Signature offerings, providing 15% to 20% more value than national brands. Optical departments and ancillary businesses saw significant value additions through high-quality lens manufacturing and affordable luxury frames. Despite negative gas comps due to lower average prices per gallon, Costco navigated inflation and tariff impacts by working closely with suppliers to mitigate costs. The evolving tariff landscape added operational complexity, but Costco's expertise in buying and limited SKU model offered agility. Digital and e-commerce efforts, including targeted campaigns and a personalized product recommendation hub, resulted in double-digit growth in various categories. Big and bulky item sales online surged by 30%, bolstered by Costco Logistics' delivery experience. Costco Next, the curated marketplace, showed healthy year-over-year growth, equaling total sales for fiscal year 2022 in Q3 2025.

Despite the moving tariff scenes and daily changes, Costco has been fortunate with key commodity prices coming down. The company is taking advantage of opportunities to lower prices, seeing an improved competitive landscape and planning to continue investing in price reduction to mitigate tariff impacts for its members.

The dialogue discusses strategies employed by a grocery company to manage inflation and maintain competitive pricing amidst rising costs. Key tactics include closely monitoring commodity prices, swiftly reducing prices when possible, and leveraging supplier relationships to lower costs. The conversation also explores the impact of these strategies on market share, particularly in non-food categories, and the potential for pull-forward demand in specific items.

Buyers proactively pulled forward summer goods and sporting goods ahead of tariff impacts, allowing for stable or slightly increased pricing. Furniture and appliances, with healthy inventory, were less affected, driving non-food sales. Strategic movement of goods and partnerships with non-EU regions mitigated higher tariff impacts. Quantifying demand pull-forward due to tariff fears was challenging.

An expert provides valuable financial insights followed by a question-and-answer session, addressing inquiries from industry analysts regarding market trends and forecasts.

The company discusses the deceleration in sales growth due to lapping gains from precious metals and gift cards, emphasizing strategic priorities to improve member experience in high-volume warehouses through expansion and technological enhancements, while expressing confidence in continued growth opportunities.

Despite a fluctuating macro environment including tariffs, Costco has achieved consistent year-over-year EBIT margin growth. The company attributes this to a focus on long-term business management rather than short-term quarterly performance. Key factors include fresh productivity improvements, reduced spoilage, and commodity deflation benefits. Costco's philosophy centers on driving value for members through global buying, in-country production, and growth in e-commerce and retail media. The goal is to continually lower prices and increase profitability, with a belief that margin growth can be sustained over time as part of this strategy.

The discussion centers on the implications of a significant LIFO (Last In, First Out) charge in Q4, anticipated to moderate in future quarters, and how this contrasts with the substantial headwind experienced throughout 2022. Insights are provided on margin dynamics influenced by market conditions and peer activities in Santorio County, affecting the company's financial outlook.

The LIFO charge for the first two quarters showed a credit due to deflation in non-food items. Inflation started to appear in the third quarter, affecting the LIFO calculation.

The discussion revolves around estimating the Last-In, First-Out (LIFO) charge for the full year, considering the impact of inflation on inventory costs, particularly in non-food items. The estimated full-year LIFO charge is around $145 million, with a $130 million adjustment required in the third quarter to account for higher inflation. If inflation remains constant, an additional $50 million charge is expected in the fourth quarter.

The inflation rate has slightly turned positive, leading to an estimated annual charge of $145 million based on current rates. This charge has been adjusted across the first three quarters, with a final adjustment in the fourth quarter. Higher or lower tariffs could affect the cost of goods, influencing this number. Despite the quarter's inflation adjustment, overall inflation remains relatively low compared to the post-Covid period, affecting inventory values estimated between $12-$13 billion.

The discussion centers on how future inflation levels will impact inventory costs and LIFO charges for the upcoming fiscal year. The company's forecast for 2026 will depend on whether inventory and product landing costs increase, influenced by inflation. No carryover effect from current inflation is expected into 2026, but rising inflation could lead to a higher LIFO charge, whereas reduced tariffs could result in a lower charge.

The $12 to $13 billion LIFO charge pertains primarily to the US inventory, as the company employs the retail method for international operations, focusing on US business for LIFO calculations.

Grocery inflation remained low, with some items like eggs and Paul past experiencing inflation while dairy products saw deflation. Digital sales accounted for about 8% of the business, excluding Instacart deliveries and travel business, reaching up to 12% when gas sales were excluded. Costco logistics handled 20% to 25% of total deliveries, focusing primarily on big and bulky items for efficient cost management.

Over half of the members have downloaded the app, indicating significant digital engagement. There's still room for growth, particularly in improving member experience through quarterly enhancements, such as increased inventory availability, improved search functionality, and enhanced communication. Digital wallet usage for payment card integration accelerates checkout speed, further driving digital engagement. Continued improvements aim to outpace overall growth and increase digital penetration among members.

The company is leveraging digital advancements, such as the digital membership card and scan-and-go technology, to expedite checkout processes and enhance customer experience. Additionally, they are considering extending gas station operating hours to boost gallon growth and sales.

The company discusses the upcoming depot opening in Florida and the opportunities for improving supply chain efficiency and reducing costs through optimized network operations and e-commerce logistics. Strategic planning for future buying is also addressed, detailing nimble decision-making processes in response to changing environments and tariff challenges, leveraging domestic and international sourcing options.

The discussion focuses on the sustainability of recent core gross margin improvements, attributing unique factors such as adjustments for ingredient deflation. It also explores the potential effects of tariff rollbacks on vendor pricing, emphasizing agility in adapting to the changing environment and commitment to delivering value to members through strategic investments and productivity enhancements.

In a dynamic environment influenced by tariffs, Costco prioritizes working with suppliers to offset price increases, focusing on delivering value to members through strategic sourcing and assortment adjustments. The company also explores partnerships, such as with Affirm, to offer flexible payment options for large purchases, enhancing member experience and loyalty.

Despite a recent price increase and concerns about its U.S. branding internationally, Costco reports strong membership growth and positive sales trends. The company is pleased with its renewal rates, sign-up activity, and growing membership count, noting that it's still early to fully assess the impact of the membership fee increase. Internationally, Costco experiences robust sales growth, with all its countries showing positive comp growth. Members express a desire for improved international relations, but this has not significantly impacted sales or membership metrics.

The company anticipates ongoing lower renewal rates for digital memberships, attributed to the characteristics of recent sign-ups. Strategies to address this issue are being considered, acknowledging the nature of new customers impacts renewal rates.

The company observes a decline in renewal rates among digital promotions, attributed to younger members and the impact of newly opened Asian warehouses with higher membership volumes. Strategies include enhancing digital engagement and personalization to move members up the loyalty curve, particularly targeting younger demographics for improved renewal rates.
要点回答
Q:What are the highlights of Costco's third quarter of fiscal 2025?
A:The highlights of Costco's third quarter include the opening of 9 warehouses, including relocations in Melbourne Australia and Japan, and 7 net new U.S. locations, plans to open 10 more in the fourth fiscal quarter, bringing the total warehouse count to 914 worldwide.
Q:What financial results were mentioned for Costco's third quarter?
A:For the third quarter, Costco reported net income of $1.9 billion, or $4.28 per diluted share, up more than 13% from the year-ago quarter. Net sales were $61.96 billion, an increase of 8% from the prior year. US comparable sales were up 6.6%, excluding gas deflation.
Q:How did the membership fee income perform in the third quarter?
A:Membership fee income grew by $117 million, or 10.4% year over year, to $1.24 billion. Growth was 11.4% excluding FX. The renewal rate for the U.S. and Canada was 92.7%, and the worldwide renewal rate was 90.2%.
Q:What were the numbers for paid household members and cardholders at the end of the third quarter?
A:At the end of the third quarter, Costco had 79.6 million paid household members, up 6.8% versus last year, and 140.2 million cardholders, up 6.6% year over year. There were 37.6 million paid executive memberships, up 9% versus last year.
Q:How did the gross margin rate change in Costco's third quarter?
A:The reported gross margin rate in the third quarter was higher by 11.25%, up 29 basis points from last year, with core margins up by 24 basis points on their own sales. The increase was driven by strong sales leverage, lower commodity costs, and improvements in fresh departments and food and sundries.
Q:What was the year-over-year change in Sgna and what factors influenced it?
A:The year-over-year change in Sgna was higher by 0.26 basis points, coming in at 9.16% compared to 8.9% last year. Adjusted for gas deflation, it was higher by 0.04 basis points. The operations component and the effects of sales leverage and productivity improvements also contributed to the increase. The impact from this year's March employee wage agreement and the July 2024 wage increase were incremental factors. The impact from the July increase will be lapped in the next script week.
Q:How did stock compensation, pre-opening expenses, and other costs change year over year?
A:Stock compensation was lower or better by 0.04 basis points with and without gas deflation. Pre-opening expenses were higher or worse by 0.04 basis points both with and without gas deflation, driven by more new warehouse openings in the quarter. Other costs were higher or worse by 0.04 basis points both with and without gas deflation, reflecting the catch-up accrual for higher vacation days in the 2025 employee agreement below the operating income line. Net interest and other expenses were $50 million this year compared to $87 million last year, largely attributable to foreign exchange.
Q:What were the performance highlights in core merchandising sales for the quarter?
A:Core merchandising sales increased with the fresh category having comparable sales up high single digits, led by double-digit growth in meat and strong performance in produce. Non-foods also had comp sales in the high single digits. Gold and jewelry, toys, housewares, and home furnishings all grew double digits. The company continued to grow share in most non-food departments, although year-over-year growth decelerated in bullion and gift card sales as they started to lap tougher compares from a year ago. Food and sundries had mid to high single-digit comps, with cooler and frozen food showing the strongest results.
Q:What measures has Costco taken to offer more value to its members?
A:Costco has lowered prices on various items such as butter, eggs, and Kirkland Signature products. They have moved more items to locally sourced production to lower prices and have introduced new Kirkland Signature (KS) items that offer 15% to 20% value compared to national brand alternatives with equal or better quality. They have also leveraged their scale and global operations to source American-made goods like mattresses, pillows, and plastic resin goods. The company has been able to bring significant value to members through optical departments by combining their labs manufacturing high-quality lenses with a range of frames including luxury brands.
Q:What is the impact of inflation and tariffs on Costco's operations?
A:Fresh and food inflation remained similar to last quarter, while non-foods saw low single-digit inflation return for the first time in a number of quarters. Inflation in non-foods was driven primarily by imported items. A $130 million LIFO charge was recorded for the quarter, with a potential additional charge in the fourth quarter depending on the level of inflation. Tariffs are adding complexity and challenges for operations, and the company is working with suppliers to mitigate the impact on cost, including moving production and sourcing to other countries. The global supply chain remains relatively stable, but shipping delivery dates have become less predictable and spot rates for shipping containers have increased recently. However, shipping is generally covered by contracts, limiting material impacts.
Q:How has Costco's digital and e-commerce strategy performed?
A:The digital and e-commerce strategy has made progress in building capabilities to deliver more personal and relevant experiences for members, which helps them save time and money. Successes included a targeted Mother's Day campaign and the launch of a personalized product recommendation hub. Gold and jewelry, toys, health and beauty majors, housewares, small electrics, and apparel all grew double digits year over year. The company continues to grow share in big and bulky items sold online, powered by investment in Costco logistics. The curated marketplace showed healthy year-over-year growth, with sales on Costco next equaling total sales for the fiscal year 2020. The company is excited about the pipeline of new vendors for future rollouts.
Q:How has the company managed to keep prices stable or slightly increase them?
A:The company has managed to keep prices stable or slightly increase them by strategically moving goods and partnering with regions worldwide to mitigate non-eu s tariff impacts, as well as by having healthy inventory in key categories that are less affected by tariffs.
Q:What challenges might Costco face regarding membership experience in its busy clubs?
A:Costco might face challenges in maintaining the overall membership experience in its busy clubs due to factors such as difficulty finding parking and navigating through the store, leading to longer times to enter and exit the club.
Q:How significant is the impact of lapping growth from precious metals and gift cards on Costco's financials?
A:Lapping growth from precious metals and gift cards has a significant impact on Costco's financials, as the company has experienced double-digit growth in non-foods and high single-digit growth this quarter, which is partly a reflection of the impact of these factors as they cycle through year over year.
Q:What does Costco aim to achieve with its strategy for its high volume warehouses?
A:The strategy for high volume warehouses is to improve the member experience by cannibalizing existing high volume locations, which will allow the company to reallocate resources and enhance the overall warehouse operation. This strategy includes the recent expansion of gasoline hours, which has positively impacted throughput and parking space turnover.
Q:How does Costco view the potential for growth in its less mature warehouses?
A:Costco views the potential for growth in its less mature warehouses as significant, with year-over-year continued growth observed. The company believes there is still tremendous opportunity for these warehouses to grow and mature like the higher sales warehouses.
Q:What is Costco's focus when it comes to managing the business over the long term?
A:When it comes to managing the business over the long term, Costco's focus is not particularly on individual quarterly performance but on investing in the business to grow the company. The company aims to drive value for members by lowering prices consistently through global buying and local production, among other strategies.
Q:How should the current LIFO charge comparison be viewed in light of future expectations?
A:The current LIFO (Last-In, First-Out) charge comparison should be viewed as a moderation in the LIFO impact in the fourth quarter and the coming quarters, which is different from the 2022 period where there were more significant LIFO headwinds over 12 months. The difference in the current environment is due to the company experiencing deflation in non-foods for the first two quarters, turning slightly inflationary in the third quarter, which affects the LIFO calculation.
Q:What is the projected net landed cost of inventory items at the end of the year and how does it compare to the beginning of the year?
A:The projected net landed cost of inventory items at the end of the year is estimated to be $145 million, which is higher than the cost at the start of the year. This increase is due to current inflation rates.
Q:What is the estimated inflation rate for non-foods and what will the charge for the year be based on this estimate?
A:The estimated inflation rate for non-foods is slightly positive, and the estimated charge for the year is $145 million, which includes $130 million in the first three quarters and an additional $10 million in the fourth quarter if inflation remains constant.
Q:How does the estimated inflation for the year relate to the LIFO charge and overall inflation?
A:The estimated inflation for the year is reflected in a LIFO (Last In, First Out) charge of $145 million, which is about 100% to 100.5% of overall inflation within the LIFO calculation. This indicates that while it represents a change from previous periods, the overall inflation remains relatively low.
Q:What factors could affect the LIFO charge in the future?
A:Future LIFO charges could be affected by the level of inflation going forward. If inventory values and net landed costs of products increase due to new inflation rates or changes in tariffs, the LIFO charge could be higher in subsequent years. However, a carryover from current inflation into 2026 is unlikely; future LIFO charges would be based on new forecasts.
Q:What percentage of the business is digital and what percentage of eCommerce is done through Costco logistics?
A:The business is about 8% digital based on specific definitions excluding certain elements like delivery solutions through Instacart and the travel business. If some of those elements are included, the digital business could be slightly north of 10%. For eCommerce through Costco logistics, it accounts for about 20% to 25% of total deliveries and about 59% of big and bulky items.
Q:What is the current state of digital engagement among members and what initiatives are being taken to increase it?
A:More than half of members have downloaded the app, yet there is significant room for growth in digital engagement. Initiatives to increase digital engagement include improving inventory availability, search functionality, and communication with members. Enhancements to the digital wallet, such as integrated payment cards, are also expected to drive faster checkouts and higher digital engagement.
Q:What opportunities exist for further cost reduction in the distribution network and how is the company approaching inventory management with regard to tariffs?
A:There is an opportunity to optimize the existing depot network to enhance efficiency and reduce costs due to the company's scale of operations. This is being approached by investing capital in areas that make sense to optimize the network, leveraging the productive capabilities of the most efficient warehouses, and adjusting inventory planning and demand forecasts based on the impact of tariffs. The company is also considering how to manage inventory levels and potential changes in tariffs over the next six months to avoid challenges related to inventory chasing.
Q:What investments have been made to improve the e-commerce operations and what is their impact?
A:The company has built out the Costco logistics network and invested, especially on the west side of the country. The investments have leveraged the e-commerce operations to show improvement quarter over quarter, driving more scale and efficiency.
Q:What is the approach of the buyers regarding strategic planning and supplier commitments?
A:The buyers are extensively going through short term, mid-term, and long-term strategies. They are empowered to make decisions based on the importance of the item and current information, taking into account supplier commitments which are 6-8 months out.
Q:How is the company preparing for potential future changes in tariffs and supplier relationships?
A:The company is staying nimble and making good decisions to ensure value and quality for members. They are working with non-U.S. business partners and exploring opportunities to move goods to other regions if faced with high tariffs. The company believes in the value of a limited SKU count and has been able to source from different countries to offset impacts of tariffs.
Q:What are the expectations regarding core gross margin and potential impacts from deflation?
A:The positive drivers seen in the quarter may not continue in the short term, as they were somewhat unique to that period. The company continues to look for ways to invest in members to drive top line growth. If there are continued impacts of inflation, they could see some return to members to offset the increases. The company looks at it more in the long term rather than short-term benefits.
Q:What is the company's stance on inventory planning and the potential need to pass on prices?
A:The company's stance is to avoid raising prices as a last resort, consistent with their pricing philosophy. However, they are exploring the possibility of passing on prices if needed, depending on the individual items and ensuring value for members. The company is staying agile and evaluating each item to deliver the best value.
Q:How is the Affirm partnership expected to support member purchases and what are the potential benefits?
A:The partnership with Affirm is providing members with exclusive pricing and more payment options, particularly for large and bulky purchases. The idea is to deliver more value to members by allowing them to structure payments over time, while also offering them the opportunity to buy the product through Costco's digital solutions.
Q:What has been the member response following the recent price increase?
A:The company is pleased with the membership metrics, such as renewal rates and sign-up activity, and there has been no significant negative impact from the price increase. They have not seen much member feedback and have maintained control over prices in certain areas despite higher inflation. The company is closely monitoring the metrics and has not seen a material impact yet.
Q:What factors are contributing to lower renewal rates for digital members and what strategies are in place to address this?
A:Lower renewal rates for digital members are attributed to a younger average age of members in that group, unique promotions, and the fact that they are newer to the warehouse experience. The company anticipates that the lower rates will persist for some time due to these factors. However, there is an opportunity to improve renewal rates by engaging digital members more effectively and bringing them into the warehouse for a more personal experience. The company is working on strategies to move members up the loyalty curve.

Costco Wholesale Corp.
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