Arm Holdings (ARM.US)2025财年第四季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

Arm concluded its fiscal year 2025 with over $4 billion in revenue, marking a significant milestone with a $1 billion-plus quarter. The company's success is attributed to the growing demand for Arm architecture in AI workloads across various sectors, including data centers, PCs, smartphones, and automobiles. Key achievements include record-breaking license and royalty earnings, driven by the chiplet approach and Custom Silicon Solutions, with notable partnerships and products gaining traction in the market.

会议速览

ARM Achieves Record-Breaking Revenue and Royalty Milestones in FY 2025

ARM concluded its fiscal year with record-breaking revenues and royalties, surpassing $4 billion and $2 billion respectively, driven by high demand for power-efficient AI compute technology across diverse markets including data center, automotive, smartphones, and IoT. The company also secured a significant multi-year AI partnership with the Malaysian government.

Arm's Dominance in AI Cloud Deployments and Custom Silicon Solutions

Arm is leading in AI cloud deployments, with notable advancements and deployments by Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and AWS. Strong momentum in custom silicon drives license and royalty growth, highlighted by increased smartphone royalties.

Arm Ltd's Fiscal Year 2025 Performance and Strategic AI Advancements

Arm Ltd. reports record fiscal year revenue, driven by strong growth in royalty and licensing revenue, particularly from advanced CPU technology and AI. The company highlights significant advancements in AI software and hardware, strategic partnerships, and increasing demand for custom silicon, positioning Arm at the forefront of the AI revolution from edge devices to cloud computing.

Impact of Tariffs on Business Operations and Royalties

The discussion focuses on the indirect effects of tariffs on a company's operations, particularly concerning potential impacts on revenue through royalties. While direct impacts are minimal as tariffs target end products, not services, concerns arise over possible negative demand elasticity if end-device costs increase, potentially affecting royalty income.

Increase in V.N. Percentage Driven by CSS Adoption and Royalty Growth

The company has seen an increase in V.N. percentage, attributed to the growing significance of CSS in royalties, particularly in client and infrastructure sectors. With early CSS adoption and royalties starting to flow, future growth is expected to be more closely tied to CSS adoption, indicating increasing penetration of CSS as a percentage of royalties.

Pricing Dynamics and Evolutionary Advancements in CSS Technology

New CSS deals maintain pricing at a double rate compared to standard implementations, with a significant step change for first-generation CSS and continuous increases as technology evolves and optimizes.

Arm's Strategic Shift Towards Direct OEM Relationships and Customization in Silicon Design

The company is increasingly engaging directly with OEMs, including hyperscalers and automotive companies, to customize silicon designs, driven by the complexity of AI workloads and the need for differentiation. This trend is expected to continue, impacting traditional relationships with fabless semiconductor companies, as OEMs seek to unlock unique features and performance benefits.

Uncertainty in Fiscal Year Guidance Amid Market Fluidity and Macro Impacts

Due to significant market fluidity and uncertainty regarding indirect demand implications, particularly influenced by tariff actions, the company opts not to provide a fiscal year guide with a potentially very wide range.

Strong Growth in Smartphones, Infrastructure, and Automotive Drives ARM's Royalty Revenue

ARM reports significant growth in royalties from smartphones, infrastructure, and automotive sectors, with strong demand for ARM-based CPUs in data centers accelerating its market penetration.

Arm's Licensing Deal with Malaysian Government Paves Way for Sovereign AI Advancement

A recent licensing agreement between Arm and the Malaysian government highlights a progressive move towards fostering AI and cloud technology startups within the country. The deal enables startups to access Arm technology for chip development, signaling a potential model for other governments to follow in accelerating sovereign technology growth.

Insight into ARM's Royalty Progression and Sequential Trends

The discussion highlights the expected progression of royalty income through the year, noting particularly strong growth from Q1, with Q2 anticipated to be seasonally weaker. Further sequential growth is expected in the latter half of the year, with specific guidance to be provided later.

Record Licensing Revenue Driven by AI Demand and Compute Refresh Cycles

Licensing revenue reached an all-time high of over $600 million, driven by strong CSS demand, growth across platforms, and AI's increasing compute requirements. AI workloads necessitate more compute, accelerating product cycles and boosting licensing growth. Full-year licensing growth was 20%, ahead of expectations, with ACV growth at 15%. Mid to high single-digit growth is the target for the next year, though double-digit growth may be achievable depending on AI's progression.

Arm's Role in Evolving Compute Landscape and AI Partnerships

As of the last quarter, the company's Ed customers show a roughly equal split between client (mostly mobile) and infrastructure use, with a minor portion in auto. Discussions also highlight significant opportunities in licensing and royalties through partnerships with OpenAI and Nvidia, particularly focusing on the Stargate project which leverages Grace Blackwell chips. The project underscores the increasing demand for more compute power, especially given the advancements in AI technologies like ChatGPT, emphasizing Arm's role as the exclusive CPU provider for energy efficiency in high-power computing scenarios.

Exploring the Role of Chiplets in Arm's Future Strategy

The discussion highlights the significance of chiplets in the semiconductor industry, particularly for Arm, emphasizing the role of AMBA fabric as a standard interface and the potential implications for future chip design and manufacturing.

Arm's Record-Breaking Fiscal Year and Exciting Future in AI Technology

The company concluded its fiscal year with a record-breaking billion-dollar quarter, driven by high demand for Arm architecture in AI workloads across various sectors, signaling a promising future.

要点回答

Q：What are the key financial milestones that Arm has achieved?

A：Arm has achieved several key financial milestones, including a record-breaking quarter with revenue exceeding $4 billion, marking the first time in company history that revenue topped $4 billion. Royalty revenue also surpassed $2 billion for the full year, and a record royalty of $607 million was generated in the latest quarter. Additionally, licensing revenue hit an all-time high of $1.5 billion, bolstered by new deals such as a multi-year AI partnership with the Malaysian government.

Q：Which sectors are contributing to the broad-based royalty growth?

A：Royalty revenue growth is broad-based, with contributions from all major markets such as data centers, automotive, smartphones, and the Internet of Things (IoT). The strong performance in these sectors demonstrates the effectiveness of Arm's diversification strategy.

Q：What are some of the significant AI infrastructure partnerships and deployments?

A：Significant AI infrastructure partnerships and deployments include a collaboration on Arm-based drive agx platforms for next-generation vehicles, announced by NIKOS GM and Nvidia. Additionally, companies are turning to Arm for custom silicon, with over $2 billion in new AWS CPU capacity powered by Arm-based Graviton over the past year. This momentum in custom silicon and licensing has driven both license and royalty growth.

Q：How has the adoption of RMV CPUs and compute subsystems impacted royalty revenue?

A：The adoption of RMV CPUs and compute subsystems across multiple sectors has driven significant increases in royalty revenue. Specifically, smartphone royalties have jumped year over year, far outpacing modest growth in chip shipments, highlighting the rising value per device of chips incorporating Arm technology.

Q：What new developments have been made in Edge AI platforms?

A：A new RVN Edge AI platform has been launched, combining Cortex A 320 and Ethos U 85 NPU to support Bi-parameter models. This platform has garnered collaboration from major players like Infineon, NXP, Renesas, Qualcomm, and STM, further bolstering the company's position in Edge computing and driving both mobile and cloud royalty revenue.

Q：What were the financial results of the latest quarter and the full fiscal year?

A：The financial results for the latest quarter included total revenue of $5.2 billion, which was at the upper end of the guided range. Royalty revenue grew year over year to $607 million and was above expectations, with strong growth across all end markets. Licensing revenue increased more than 50% year over year to $634 million, with much of the growth tied to demand for advanced CPU technology like RMV and AI. The company closed the fiscal year with a strong record of performance, supported by year over year growth in royalty and licensing revenue.

Q：How does the company expect tariffs and macro uncertainty to impact its business?

A：Based on current visibility, the company expects a limited direct impact on its royalty and licensing revenues due to tariffs and macro uncertainty. While the indirect impact on demand in the royalty business is less clear, the company believes that the overall effect has been limited as customers tend to invest through temporary slowdowns, given the lengthy chip development timelines. Furthermore, partners have indicated that the impact of pull-in demand on the company's royalty business has been minimal.

Q：What is the anticipated growth compared to the previous year?

A：The anticipated growth is an increase of Ed year on year.

Q：What is the expected impact of tariffs on the company's revenue and operations?

A：Tariffs have a minimal direct impact on the company's revenue since they are applied to end products and not services. However, there may be an indirect impact on revenue if supply chains are affected, which could potentially affect the cost of end devices. The company has not seen any impact from tariffs in the current quarter and does not expect any impact for the remainder of the year. They note a strong foundation in business fundamentals and growth, despite uncertainty around tariffs.

Q：What is the framework for the potential indirect impact of higher end-device costs due to tariffs?

A：The framework for the potential indirect impact of higher end-device costs due to tariffs is that if the cost of the end unit goes higher, it would result in a negative demand elasticity, meaning there could be a reduction in demand which could, in turn, affect the company's royalties.

Q：What factors contributed to the increase in Vn% and what does it indicate?

A：The factors that contributed to the increase in Vn% include a rise in CSS (C) which is becoming a more meaningful part of royalties. The first instances of CSS were recognized in the last quarter and are expected to become more material in the future. This is one of the reasons for the step-up in Vn%. The increase in Vn% indicates that CSS is becoming a significant driver of growth and will likely influence future royalty growth.

Q：Will the company continue to provide the V9 adoption rate in future quarters?

A：No, the company will not provide the V9 adoption rate every quarter going forward. This decision was made because the metric has become 'noisy' over the past couple of quarters, and while it was intended to give correlation to future royalty growth, CSS adoption is still in its early days. As CSS adoption and royalties increase, the correlation with the V9 adoption rate may not be as clear.

Q：How is the pricing for new CSS deals compared to standard implementation rates?

A：The pricing for new CSS deals is approximately double the rate of a more standard implementation.

Q：What is the strategic progression of the company mentioned in the speech?

A：The strategic progression of the company involves moving from charging IP per chip to higher royalty rates as it transitions into the CSS side of the business, doing more subsystems, and now moving towards direct signups with Oems such as hyperscalers and auto companies.

Q：What potential changes in customer base and market reach might the company experience?

A：The potential changes include the company dealing directly with Oems as end customers, which could alter the dynamics of the relationship with the existing fable semiconductor companies. There could be negative and positive impacts on the TAM (Total Addressable Market) that the company can address.

Q：How does the company's direct relationship with customers influence product development?

A：The direct relationship with customers influences product development by making it more efficient and aligned with the customer's needs. With AI workloads and complex systems, direct collaboration helps manage the increased development time and complexity, which is expected to continue.

Q：What is the impact of the lack of full-year guidance on market expectations?

A：The lack of full-year guidance due to a reduced amount of signal from partners and customers regarding their predictions and projections impacts market expectations by creating uncertainty. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the difficulty in forecasting due to macro impacts and timing differences in big deals.

Q：How is the company's visibility into near-term performance compared to historical trends?

A：The company's visibility into near-term performance is less clear compared to historical trends due to the lack of full-year guidance from partners and customers. The visibility is further complicated by macro impacts from recent tariff actions, resulting in a decision not to provide a full year guide with a large range.

Q：What is the expected growth in royalties by end market, and which markets are seeing strength and weakness?

A：The expected growth in royalties by end market includes continued strong growth in smartphones and PCs with screen, accelerating growth in infrastructure due to custom silicon deployments in hyperscalers, and a recovery in the networking business. Automotive is experiencing strong double-digit growth, while the IoT and embedded sectors have shown signs of stabilization after a period of slowness.

Q：What is the reason for the rapid adoption of Arm in the data center?

A：The rapid adoption of Arm in the data center is primarily driven by the transition of Nvidia to the Blackwell architecture, which uses Arm CPUs. This transition has provided an accelerant to the growth in the data center and has brought significant leverage for general purpose compute, especially in AI data centers.

Q：What milestone event occurred with the Malaysian government and why is it significant?

A：The milestone event was a licensing deal signed with the Malaysian government, allowing startup companies to access Arm technology at the core system level to rapidly design chips. This deal is significant because it reflects Malaysia's progressive vision to diversify its technology footprint and invest in AI and cloud startups, potentially leading to a broader adoption of Arm technology.

Q：What is the expected sequential growth pattern for royalties, and which quarter is considered seasonally weaker?

A：The expected sequential growth pattern for royalties is strong growth continuing from Q1. It is expected to be flattish in Q2, which is one of the seasonally weaker quarters, followed by ed to Ed sequential growth in each of the last two quarters in the back half of the year. Specific guidance will be provided later in the year.

Q：What factors drove the all-time high licensing revenue in the previous year?

A：The all-time high licensing revenue was driven by extremely strong demand for CSS, growth across all platforms, and significant software leverage, particularly around AI. The increasing demand for compute in AI workloads has led to customers accelerating their product cycles, resulting in more demand for new products and increased licensing growth.

Q：How does the company expect the growth in ACV to forecast annual growth?

A：The company expects ACV (Annual Contract Value) to be a better way to forecast what annual growth should look like, as it tends to smooth out some of the variability seen in the licensing revenue. The expectation is for mid to high single-digit growth in ACV, which has been the right target in the past, and may be exceeded and stay in the double-digit range due to AI-related overachievement.

Q：What is the split between data center and mobile in terms of CSS?

A：The split between data center and mobile in terms of CSS is approximately equal, with half of the clients being mobile and the other half being infrastructure.

Q：What opportunities exist on the license or royalty side with the Stargate project?

A：The opportunities on the license or royalty side with the Stargate project are significant due to the increasing demand for compute power, particularly as seen with OpenAI's technology advancements. The project is focused on providing the necessary compute for these algorithms, and the roadmap involves technology partnerships around Grace Blackwell chips.

Q：Why is energy efficiency important in the Stargate project?

A：Energy efficiency is critical in the Stargate project because it is focused on providing a lot of power and compute while ensuring that energy efficiency is maintained. This is why Arm, which is the only CPU provider inside of Stargate, is chosen for its energy-efficient capabilities.

Q：What is the significance of the chiplet space for Arm?

A：The chiplet space is significant for Arm as it relates to large SoCs that use multiple chips, or chiplets, with a common bus or interfaces on and off of die. The use of an AMBA bus and connectivity is essential in this space, and chiplets are a large value proposition for CSS. They help in utilizing most of the silicon area and transistors for RMIT, which is a key factor in driving the demand for custom chips.

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