Shopify, Inc.(SHOP.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Despite uncertain market conditions, Shopify reported strong Q1 2025 performance with a 27% revenue increase and a 15% free cash flow margin. Key growth areas included offline and B2B GMV, which grew by 23% and 109% respectively, while international GMV increased by 31%. The company highlighted enhancements in cross-border trade capabilities, improvements in duty calculations, shipping, and fulfillment, and the expansion of Shopify Payments into 16 new markets. Additionally, multi-currency payouts in 20 European countries and the launch of Shopify Pay Installments in Canada underscored the company's commitment to innovation and operational discipline.
会议速览

Shopify's Q1 2025 conference call featured updates from the president and CFO, discussing financial results, forward-looking statements, and non-GAAP measures, with a reminder about associated risks and uncertainties.

Despite market uncertainty, Shopify continues to show consistent quarterly growth, with data through April showing little evidence of a slowdown. The company emphasizes its agility and commitment to helping merchants of all sizes adapt rapidly to changes. Shopify's business model allows for quick adaptation, prioritizing tools and support needed for merchants to thrive. Key growth areas include offline and B2B GMV, which increased by 23% and 109% respectively, and international GMV, which grew by 31%. The company has introduced various enhancements, including improved cross-border trade capabilities, easier local buying options, duty calculation at checkout, and simplified international shipping. These innovations demonstrate Shopify's unmatched pace and dedication to unlocking opportunities for merchant success.

Shopify has significantly expanded its Shopify Payments service, nearly doubling its global reach to 39 countries, including launches in 16 new markets. This growth simplifies onboarding for merchants, reduces fees, enhances security, and improves conversion rates with features like Shop Pay. Additionally, multi-currency payouts were introduced in 20 European countries to facilitate global operations and mitigate exchange rate impacts.

Shopify Payments, particularly Shop Pay, drives significant growth for large merchants, with notable brands integrating the solution. The Shop app also sees accelerated growth, and Shop Pay Installments expand to Canada, marking global progress.

Shopify emphasizes AI integration, requiring teams to explore AI solutions before requesting additional resources. Recent developments include building servers for internal efficiency and re-architecting the AI engine for better merchant support, doubling monthly average users of Psychic since 2025 began.

Highlighting significant growth in European, Asian, and Latin American markets, the dialogue emphasizes Shopify's increasing market penetration, driven by product enhancements, marketing investments, and strategic partnerships. Notable successes include a 36% year-over-year GMV growth in Europe and innovative solutions like same-day delivery through collaborations with delivery partners, showcasing Shopify's commitment to supporting merchants' growth and adapting to evolving retail landscapes.

Highlighting Shopify's agility, scalability, and merchant-centric approach, the dialogue emphasizes the platform's unique position in the market, attracting global brands across diverse industries due to its ability to swiftly navigate market changes and challenges. With a focus on cutting costs and modernizing technology, Shopify stands out against legacy platforms, offering a durable business model centered on supporting merchants' success. The discussion underscores the platform's growth opportunities, resilience, and commitment to delivering unmatched value while balancing profitability and long-term growth.

The company reports its eighth consecutive quarter of at least 25% pro forma revenue growth, driven by expanding merchant base, innovation, and strong GMV performance exceeding US e-commerce growth rates.

In Q1 2025, Shopify reported a 23% increase in GMV to 74.8 billion, driven by same-store sales growth, new merchant acquisitions, and expansion in Europe. Revenue rose 27%, with merchant solutions revenue growing 29% due to increased penetration of Shopify Payments. Strong growth was seen in various categories including health and beauty, home and garden, and food and beverage.

Shopify reports a 21% growth in subscription solutions revenue, driven by an increase in merchants on its platform and higher variable platform fees. The company also highlights the benefits of its longer paid trials, the expansion of payments into more countries, and the acquisition of Vantage Discovery to enhance AI-powered search capabilities. Despite higher operating expenses, Shopify maintains strong operating leverage and free cash flow margins, emphasizing continued investment in key growth areas.

In Q1, cross-border GMV constituted 15% of total GMV, with half involving US trade balance and the rest inter-regional within Europe. The expiration of the de minimis exemption for goods from China is not expected to significantly impact Shopify, given only 1% of GMV relates to imports from China under the exemption. Shopify's diverse merchant base across various industries ensures resilience against economic shifts. Higher-income consumers, comprising over half of US buyers, provide insulation from pricing swings. Q2 revenue growth is forecasted in the mid-20s year-over-year, driven by strong revenue growth factors from Q1. Gross profit dollars are expected to grow in the high teens, primarily from merchant solutions and payments. Operating expenses are anticipated to be 39%-40% of revenues, reflecting expense leverage and high-return investments. Free cash flow margin for Q2 is projected to be in the mid-teens, maintaining a focus on growth over near-term margin optimization.

Despite global trade uncertainties and potential consumer spending shifts, Shopify reports strong Q1 performance with no significant impact on GMV. The company attributes its resilience to its diverse merchant base and broad customer income range, noting continued strength into May 2025.

The company reports strong GMV performance in April and May, despite the early stages of tariff escalations affecting China-specific merchants. Meanwhile, SMB merchant acquisition remains consistently strong, showing no signs of hesitation despite market uncertainties.

Many large retailers are moving to Shopify due to the restrictive and slow nature of their legacy commerce platforms, seeking improved execution speed, reduced complexity, and lower cost of ownership.

The discussion highlights the significant integration of AI into Shopify's internal operations, enhancing efficiency and access to information. The company emphasizes its commitment to maintaining discipline in expenses and marketing spend, adjusting as necessary based on market dynamics and the effectiveness of AI in improving margins and merchant acquisition.

The company emphasizes long-term focus, adapting to early signals, and maintaining strict marketing and profitability guidelines, with a core philosophy centered around attracting and serving merchants effectively.

The speaker emphasizes Shopify's unique advantage in rapidly analyzing growth engine performance and LTV changes, enabling swift decision-making for market share adjustments.

The discussion covers Shopify's marketing strategy, emphasizing no specific shift in targeting but focusing on disciplined, return-based marketing across various segments. Additionally, it explores the potential of AI shopping, highlighting Shopify's commitment to being present wherever commerce occurs and the company's ongoing partnerships and opportunities in AI-driven commerce.

In a period of economic stress, Shopify demonstrates its quality and resilience, positioning itself to gain market share even when macro conditions are not favorable.

Investors are concerned about the persistence of gross margin pressures and the impact of a PayPal accounting change on revenues and margins, seeking clarity on when margins will stabilize.

The discussion highlights Shopify's stable subscription solution margins around 80%, with expectations for consistency. On the merchant solutions side, PayPal integration and larger merchant GMVs introduce gross margin headwinds, balanced by margin-accretive products like tax, capital, and Shopify FX. The impact of non-cash revenue from partnerships and the effect of paid trial changes on subscription solutions growth are also addressed, with an outlook for these factors to normalize by next year.

Shopify is experiencing significant growth in its point of sale (POS) business, particularly among large, multi-location brands, due to its robust feature set, rapid product expansion, and unified commerce system. The company differentiates itself from competitors like Clover, Square, and LightSpeed by offering a single platform for viewing online and offline business operations, supporting various channels including AI and social media. Shopify's partnerships with major Sis and its ability to quickly integrate new services, such as same-day delivery, are key factors in winning over legacy brands.

Shopify views the rise of AI agents as a significant opportunity, not a threat, as it increases complexity for merchants, highlighting Shopify's value in managing multiple channels.

Approaching its 10-year IPO anniversary, Shopify emphasizes its strength in navigating uncertain times, highlighting its ability to manage expenses, deliver profitability, and support merchants through complexity.
要点回答
Q:What are the key trends and performance indicators mentioned for Q1 of 2025?
A:Q1 of 2025 saw consistent quarterly growth continue, with revenue up 27%, free cash flow margin hitting 15%, and an increase in offline and GMV of 23%. B2B GMV grew 109%, and international GMV increased 31%. The company saw continued growth across merchant GMV from entrepreneurs through enterprises, with a seventh consecutive quarter of GMV growth above 20%.
Q:How does Shopify's approach to agility benefit merchants?
A:Shopify is built for agility, allowing it to help merchants absorb change rapidly and at scale. This strategy ensures that as the business environment shifts, Shopify can continue to support merchants by being the guardians of their businesses, building, shipping, and improving commerce for everyone involved.
Q:What is the merchant resiliency attributed to Shopify and how is it significant?
A:Businesses on Shopify are more resilient than those not using the platform. Since 2015, 38 out of 39 quarterly merchant cohorts on Shopify have outperformed the overall e-commerce market. This resiliency, combined with Shopify's operational excellence, sets the company apart as it navigates through market uncertainties.
Q:What recent measures has Shopify introduced to assist merchants adapt to cross-border trade and duty calculations?
A:To assist with cross-border trade, Shopify has enhanced its managed markets products, introduced a merchant of record service for duties and taxes, and made duty calculation available at checkout. Additionally, the company offers duty inclusive pricing, a tariff guide AI tool, and simplified international shipping with Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) labels and expanded carrier options.
Q:How has Shopify Payments performed and what new markets were added in Q1?
A:Shopify Payments, the company's largest product offering, has made great progress with a GMV penetration of 64% in Q1. The product was launched in 16 new markets, which nearly doubled the number of supported countries to 39 from the end of 2024. Features like shop pay improve conversion rates and provide convenience for buyers, and the company also launched multi-currency payouts in 20 countries.
Q:Why is access to Shop Pay important for merchants on the Shopify platform?
A:Access to Shop Pay is crucial as it makes shopping simpler for buyers and offers them greater convenience. It also improves conversion rates and is becoming a pathway for large merchants to integrate with Shopify, driving upmarket enterprise-level growth opportunities.
Q:What is the significance of AI in Shopify's operations?
A:AI is at the core of Shopify's operations, transforming work processes. It is ingraining reflexive AI usage in the company culture, which means teams prioritize assessing the use of AI before seeking additional headcount or resources. This approach is fostering discussions and redefining decision-making processes.
Q:How has AI improved operational efficiencies at Shopify?
A:AI has improved operational efficiencies by making Shopify's work more legible and accessible. The company built a dozen MCP servers to enhance this capability, enabling anyone within Shopify to find resources and improve efficiency, which in turn drives operational efficiencies and keeps the company agile.
Q:What recent developments have been made in the Psychic AI engine and how have they benefited Shopify merchants?
A:Recent developments in the Psychic AI engine include re-architecture for deeper reasoning capabilities, processing larger business data sets, and enhanced accessibility in all supported languages. These changes have led to more than doubling of monthly average users of Psychic since the start of 2025, providing a significant benefit to Shopify merchants and giving them an unfair advantage.
Q:What is the progress in international growth and what features are being improved to support this growth?
A:International growth is being pursued by capturing market share in European, Asian, and Latin American markets. GMV in Europe grew 36% year over year, showing expansion and a strong presence in key regions like the UK, Netherlands, and Germany. Specific features being improved to support this growth include AI-powered translation and privacy compliance functionality.
Q:How is Shopify's offline business performing and what partnerships have been formed?
A:The offline business experienced a 23% growth thanks to strong mid-market and multi-location merchant growth and the addition of established brands. Shopify has partnered with brands like Alo, enabling same-day delivery options for customers near retail stores. This partnership exemplifies the trust and partnership-building aspect of Shopify's value proposition.
Q:What is the impact of Shopify's platform on high volume brands and market expansion?
A:Shopify's platform supports high volume brands like V.I.T.A.P.I.T and Bark Box through its powerful go-to-market strategy. This is fueling strong growth, attracting more brands to Shopify, and enabling the platform to handle complex business needs and market changes effectively.
Q:How does Shopify address the challenges of modern commerce and what is its strategic position?
A:Shopify addresses modern commerce challenges by providing agility and ease of use. It is positioned not just as a tool but as a strategic advantage, handling changes efficiently and offering scalable infrastructure. The platform's strength in handling diverse verticals and brands shows its resilience and ability to support businesses across industries in adapting to market changes.
Q:What does the diversity of new businesses joining Shopify signify for the platform?
A:The diversity of new businesses joining Shopify, ranging from computer and gaming giants to apparel brands, indicates the robustness of the merchant base and the platform's capability to support various industries. This diversity reduces reliance on any single market or customer, positioning the platform to navigate market fluctuations and seize growth opportunities with confidence.
Q:What are the key principles that guide Shopify's actions and success?
A:The three key principles guiding Shopify are a focus on merchants, being adaptable to their needs, and operating with discipline to deliver value while balancing profitability and long-term growth. These principles underpin the company's commitment to its mission and its strategy for future success.
Q:How does Q1 performance align with Shopify's growth framework and merchant success?
A:Q1 performance aligns with Shopify's growth framework through continuous GMV growth and the addition of new merchants, particularly high volume ones. This growth reflects a focus on merchants, who are at the core of the company's success. The results also demonstrate the company's ability to pivot and adapt to challenges, as well as the delivery of value and support for merchants' growth.
Q:How does the shift to longer paid trials affect MRR comparisons?
A:The shift to longer paid trials, such as a three-month trial in certain markets, has made MRR comparisons from quarter to quarter and year over year more difficult to assess. This change, which started in Q4 of the prior year, is intended to increase the likelihood of greater GMV success for merchants in the long term.
Q:What were the trends in gross profit and operating expenses?
A:Gross profit was up 22%, with subscription solutions growing 19% and merchant solutions growing 24%. Operating expenses were $966 million for the quarter, 41% of revenue, and are trending towards a more efficient use of resources as the company continues to lean on its returns-based approach.
Q:How did the acquisition of Vantage Discovery contribute to the company's strategy?
A:The acquisition of Vantage Discovery in Q1 closed in March helps accelerate the development of AI-powered multi-vector search across the company's search APIs, which is a part of a broader strategy to ensure that merchants can continue meeting buyers regardless of where they're shopping or discovering great products.
Q:What is the impact of the de minimis exemption expiration for goods from China on Shopify?
A:The de minimis exemption for goods from China, which has expired, is not expected to have a meaningful impact on Shopify in the near term because only 1% of the company's overall GMV is related to imports from China that were subject to the exemption.
Q:What observations were made regarding the resilience of the merchant base and the quality and diversity of the merchant population?
A:The quality and diversity of the merchant base are key factors contributing to the company's resilience in the face of potential economic shifts. With millions of businesses across various industries and verticals, the diverse merchant base provides a solid foundation to navigate changing market conditions, offering unique stability to the company's business.
Q:What is the strategy of merchants in response to trade concerns?
A:Merchants are adjusting their strategies in response to trade concerns, including decisions on inventory, pricing, and sourcing. Some have raised prices, while others are changing sourcing countries, buying inventory, or adjusting the product mix in their catalogs.
Q:What is the outlook for GMV and revenue growth in Q2 2025?
A:The outlook for Q2 2025 revenue growth is in the mid-20s year over year, driven by the same factors that supported Q1's strong revenue growth. The revenue growth is expected to be tempered by the impact of PayPal and the length of paid trials. The company expects gross profit dollars to grow in the high teens, operating expenses to be 39% to 40% of revenue, and free cash flow to be in the mid-teens as a margin.
Q:What is the impact of Shopify's diverse merchant base and wide geographic spread on the company's performance?
A:The diverse merchant base and wide geographic spread of Shopify's merchants mean that their products are made across different locations, which results in varied exposure to tariffs. However, net of all impacts, there is no meaningful impact on GMV.
Q:What does the buyer demographic in the US tell us about the resilience of Shopify's merchants?
A:More than half of the buyers in the US have incomes exceeding $100,000, indicating a broad range of income levels among those purchasing from Shopify stores. The scale and diversity of the customer base help insulate both the merchants and Shopify itself from significant impacts.
Q:How is Shopify managing the effects of currency fluctuations and consumer spending?
A:The company is factoring in views on guidance regarding overall consumer spend and the impact from FX into their forecasts. They have seen strength through April and into early May, continuing the performance seen in Q1. The consistency of this performance is considered as they look at guidance for Q2 and recent results in comparison to prior years.
Q:What is the current status of China-specific merchants in early May, and how is the impact of tariffs being managed?
A:In early May, both April and May have shown strong GMP performance. The environment is dynamic, and it is still too early to predict the full impact of tariffs. However, to date, there has been strength in GMV, and the guidance given for Q2 assumes continued strong performance in China.
Q:How is the new merchant pipeline performing, and what has changed over the last few months?
A:The new merchant pipeline has been consistently very strong, especially in the SMB segment, with no change in performance observed. However, on the larger merchant side, many legacy commerce platforms are showing their limitations, leading larger brands to migrate to Shopify and high ticket platforms for better performance, complexity reduction, execution speed, and lower cost of ownership.
Q:What are the reasons for larger brands moving to Shopify, and how is Shopify supporting these merchants?
A:Larger brands are moving to Shopify due to the limitations of their existing commerce platforms and the need for more flexible and cost-effective solutions. Shopify is supporting these merchants by providing tools and services that enable them to manage their businesses more effectively, such as the quick creation of a buy local filter and other features that address the challenges posed by tariffs.
Q:How is AI being integrated into Shopify's operations, and what is its effect on the company's expenses and marketing?
A:AI is being integrated into the DNA of Shopify's operations, with over 8000 employees leveraging it. This integration helps improve the company's search capabilities and support merchants more effectively. Internally, AI is expected to increase the effectiveness of teams, potentially improving marketing opportunities and supporting the company's growth. However, there is no change in views on free cash flow margins or the company's investment strategy. The company will continue to be disciplined in marketing spending and focus on long-term merchant relationships, adapting to market changes while maintaining profitability and growth.
Q:What visibility and flexibility does Shopify have in its growth engine?
A:Shopify has visibility and flexibility to see changes in its growth engine within a week and can adjust its spending based on solid data insights quickly.
Q:What is Shopify's approach to marketing spend and targeting?
A:Shopify's marketing spend is performance-based and supports various segments such as point of sale, SMB, and enterprise. There's no specific segment targeted over others; the marketing philosophy aims to support all great things Shopify is doing across its solutions.
Q:How does Shopify plan to stay relevant in the changing retail landscape influenced by AI?
A:Shopify plans to stay relevant by being present wherever commerce takes place, including new search platforms beyond traditional search engines. It continues to work on partnerships like the one with Perplexity and OpenAI and aims to be where consumers look for incredible products.
Q:What is the impact of AI shopping on Shopify's strategy?
A:AI shopping is a significant opportunity for Shopify, and the company will continue to be wherever consumers search for products, aiming to be the core retail operating system for many stores.
Q:How are gross margins trending for Shopify, and what is the impact of PayPal's accounting change?
A:Gross margins for Shopify have been fairly stable, with the subscription solution side remaining around 80% plus and the merchant solutions side facing headwinds due to increased merchant GMV. PayPal's accounting change had a non-cash revenue impact in Q4 but is not quantified. Going forward, margins will be a mix and are expected to stabilize as new revenue streams grow margin accretively. The paid trial change will be a headwind for subscription solutions in the current year but not in the following year.
Q:What competitive advantages does Shopify's point of sale offering provide, and how is it distributed?
A:Shopify's point of sale offering has competitive differentiation through features like a multi-year growth initiative, tap to pay, and having shipped to store capabilities. It also works with large, complex multi-location merchants and has partnerships with SIS for market expansion. The go-to-market strategy includes working with new geographies, verticals, and segments, and with larger SIS that can bring Shopify to market. Shopify views the future of retail as unified commerce across线上线下 channels and is working with companies like Shopify to ensure its products are surfaced when customers search.
Q:How does Shopify view the emergence of AI agents and how might they affect the company?
A:Shopify views the emergence of AI agents as an opportunity. The more channels there are, the more value Shopify provides by surfacing products from the most important brands. Shopify is working with AI companies to ensure its products are surfaced in new search areas and is not concerned about reducing its value proposition as AI agents may facilitate direct checkout and open new sales channels.

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