美国超微公司(AMD.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Despite facing regulatory challenges including export controls, AMD reported strong Q1 2025 growth, with significant increases in data center and client/gaming segments revenue. The company remains confident in delivering double-digit revenue growth, driven by its latest CPU and GPU offerings and strategic investments in AI and data center solutions.
会议速览

The call welcomes participants to AMD's 2025 first quarter financial results conference, highlighting the availability of earnings materials and non-GAAP financial measures. Key executives are introduced, and upcoming conference attendance is announced. The discussion includes forward-looking statements with noted risks and uncertainties.

Despite evolving tariff and regulatory dynamics, the company experienced significant growth, marked by a fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration. This success was driven by strengths in core businesses and expanding data center and AI momentum, with revenues and EPS exceeding consensus estimates. Notably, the data center segment saw a 57% year-over-year revenue increase, fueled by the latest fifth-gen Epic processors and sustained demand from cloud providers. Additionally, the company highlighted strong enterprise adoption and strategic partnerships, alongside advancements in AI solutions and hardware, positioning it for continued strong growth.

The company experienced a significant increase in client segment revenue, with a 60% year-over-year growth, marking five consecutive quarters of revenue share gains. Gaming revenue saw a 30% decrease year over year due to lower semi-custom sales, offset by higher Radeon graphic sales. The company launched several new products, including the Ryzen XRD processor and Radeon Quest GPU, to strong demand. Despite facing macro and regulatory headwinds, including export controls to China, the company anticipates strong double-digit percentage revenue growth driven by its latest generation of CPUs and GPUs and the ramping production of accelerators.

The company reports record first quarter revenue exceeding guidance, driven by growth in the data center and client and gaming segments, with increases in gross margin and operating income.

The company anticipates Q2 revenue of around $7.4 billion, with a $1.5 billion impact from new export license requirements affecting shipments to China, yet expecting 27% year-over-year growth. Client and gaming segment revenue is projected to rise by double digits, while the data center segment revenue will decrease due to the exclusion of certain revenues. Non-GAAP gross margin estimates include inventory charges, and operating expenses are expected to be around $2.3 billion. Despite trade uncertainties, strategic investments are being made to capitalize on high-performance computing opportunities across various markets, following a strong start to 2025 with revenue growth and expanded margins.

The company experienced significant growth across multiple segments in Q1, notably in the client business and data center operations, driven by strong desktop performance, gaming product launches, and increased ASPs. Despite export control limitations causing a $700 million headwind in Q2, the outlook remains strong due to ongoing strength in client, gaming, and data center businesses, with expectations of sequential growth in CPU and GPU areas.

The data centered GPU performance met or slightly exceeded expectations in Q1. With high customer interest and a strategic partnership with Oracle, the company anticipates a strong AI infrastructure investment and growth in the second half of the year despite uncertainties related to tariffs.

The data center GPU business experienced significant double-digit growth, with the majority of the impact expected in the September quarter. Inventory increased to support strong client and server ramp and the upcoming data center GPU ramp, due to long lead times for building inventory.

The company discusses its excitement for the upcoming Mi Lor series launch and the acquisition of Zt systems to address rack-scale challenges. They highlight increased customer enthusiasm for the Mi 400 series and strong year-over-year growth in the enterprise and on-premises market segments, attributing success to product strength and enhanced go-to-market strategies including direct engagement with end users and broadened product portfolio.

The company previously anticipated flat data center revenue in the first half of the year; adjusting for a significant China-related impact, expectations remain flat. Gross margin guidance for the quarter includes a charge related to the MI 308, with an expectation of returning to over 54% in the second half due to growth in the client, gaming, and data center businesses, particularly with the launch of MI 350 two-five. The company notes improvements in gross margin driven by a richer mix of products and expanding enterprise market share in the data center segment, offsetting the lower-margin impact of the MI 308.

The discussion highlights Intel's perspective on system-based architectures, emphasizing their capability to address customer needs through a combination of internal investments and partnerships. Additionally, it explores the company's client business performance, noting significant gains in revenue share, particularly in high-end notebooks, commercial sectors, and desktops, while addressing concerns about market growth, macroeconomic impacts, and inventory management.

Despite challenges in China, the company anticipates strong double-digit growth in data center GPU sales, driven by increasing demand and adoption of their products, particularly the Mi 325 and Mi 300 series.

The speaker discusses the impact of China's restrictions and upcoming AI diffusion rules on the addressable market for AI accelerators, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the market and the importance of maintaining the US's leading role in AI technology. Efforts are being made to ensure that global adoption of the US AI ecosystem remains strong despite regulatory challenges.

The company attributes its business performance primarily to the strength of its product portfolio, especially the desktop channel products. Despite a strong first half, it plans for a subseasonal second half. The company is currently in an upgrade cycle, benefiting from new gaming CPU and GPU cycles, and is ramping up production to maintain channel fullness. For the next year, the focus is on early preparation and collaboration with hyperscale and OEM partners to address learning curve challenges in delivering rack-scale solutions, particularly for the Ed series.

The dialogue discusses the potential for year-over-year growth in the GPU business despite recent headwinds, with expectations for growth in subsequent quarters. It also addresses trends in the data center performance, confidence in significant sequential growth in the embedded space, and Opex management strategies, including the impact of acquisitions on operational expenses.

The discussion highlights AMD's perspective on the increasing importance of inference computing due to new reasoning models, emphasizing their strength in distributed inferencing and the effectiveness of their solutions like Mi 300. Additionally, it addresses the competition with custom silicon (Asics), suggesting that CPUs hold a larger share in the $500 billion TAM due to rapidly changing models and the importance of competitive total cost of ownership (TCO) for customers.
要点回答
Q:How did the data center segment contribute to AMD's overall financial performance?
A:The data center segment significantly contributed to AMD's overall financial performance by recording a 57% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $3.7 billion. This growth was attributed to the server CPU share gained due to the ramp of fifth-generation EPYC processors and sustained demand for fourth-generation EPYC chips. Notably, all major cloud providers ramped deployments of EPYC instances, leading to more than doubling in the number of Epic-powered cloud instances activated by enterprise customers year over year.
Q:How is AMD preparing for future growth in its AI business?
A:AMD is preparing for future growth in its AI business by continuing to innovate with new products and technology updates. This includes the upcoming launch of the 5th Gen EPYC processors at TSMC's new Arizona fab, with first production shipments expected in the second half of 2025. Long-term, AMD has announced its next-generation EPYC processors, called Venice, which will be the lead HPC products for TSMC's 7nm process node. The company is also advancing the development of its AI solutions, with the release cadence of AI software shifted to bi-weekly updates and increased developer enablement. Upcoming product launches include the MI 400 series, which is designed for both inferencing and training, and is set to launch next year, significantly expanding AMD's AI accelerator market presence.
Q:What was the impact of AMD's AI offerings on the company's revenue and customer adoption?
A:AMD's AI offerings had a significant impact on the company's revenue and customer adoption, with data center AI business revenue increasing by a substantial double-digit percentage year over year. The ramp-up of MI 325x shipments supported new enterprise and cloud deployments. More than 3000 MI 300 series platforms are in production across all leading service providers, catering to the expanding number of Instinct GPU deployments with cloud, enterprise, and AI customers. Additionally, multiple hyperscalers have expanded their use of Instinct accelerators for a range of generative AI, search ranking, and recommendation use cases, driving strong customer engagement and adoption.
Q:What strategic partnerships and technological advancements are contributing to AMD's AI business expansion?
A:Strategic partnerships and technological advancements are contributing to AMD's AI business expansion by driving enterprise adoption and facilitating access to more platforms. A key milestone includes the strategic partnership with 342 to build one of France's most powerful AI compute facilities, which will be powered by Instinct accelerators. Moreover, the acquisition of Zt Systems has bolstered systems design expertise, allowing AMD to provide ready-to-deploy rack-level AI solutions. The Mi 300 series is also being sample to multiple customers, with plans for accelerated production by mid-year, further supporting the expansion of AI infrastructure.
Q:What are the performance highlights of the new Ryzen processors?
A:The new Ryzen processors set new sell-out records and topped bestseller lists at leading global retailers, with significant performance gains in gaming and productivity. The launch of the Ryzen 5000 series in the mobile segment delivered higher performance than the competition.
Q:How did the notebook and APU sales perform?
A:AMD based notebook sell-through was very strong, and there was strong demand for the new generation of APU processors, leading to increased sales quarter on quarter. The first notebooks powered by new high-end Ryzen AI Max Plus and mainstream Ryzen AI Vector 300 series processors received positive reviews and set new standards for computing and graphics performance.
Q:What challenges did the gaming segment face and what were the key product launches?
A:Gaming revenue decreased 30% year over year, but there was strong demand for the Radeon Quest, which launched to strong demand with record first-week sell-out. FSR was introduced as a new rendering technology to enhance gaming experiences. Despite challenges, the segment worked on inventory replenishment and addressing sustained demand.
Q:What is the status of the embedded segment's performance and future outlook?
A:The first quarter revenue for the embedded segment decreased, but demand is recovering gradually. The outlook for the second half of the year includes improving demand in key markets and initial shipments of new products. The segment is expected to return to year-over-year growth driven by reduced inventory levels and an improving demand environment.
Q:What are the company's expectations for revenue growth and AI integration?
A:The company expects strong double-digit percentage revenue growth for Zen 5, Epic, Ryzen, and Radeon businesses, and a ramp-up of Instinct MI 350 series accelerators in the second half of the year. Full-year growth is anticipated in the semi-custom business and for the embedded business, supported by a strategic opportunity to further differentiate AMD through product roadmaps that combine leadership compute and AI capabilities.
Q:How did the financial results compare to the previous year?
A:Record first quarter revenue of $5 billion was up 68% over the prior year, with gross margin at 54%, operating income at $1.8 billion, and diluted earnings per share at 96 cents. Growth was attributed to the data center segment and a strong client and gaming segment despite sequentially lower data center segment revenue.
Q:What is the impact of recent export controls on the company's business?
A:The recently announced export controls for Mi Xi shipments to China have an impact on revenue expectations, with a projected $300 million reduction in revenue from this segment. The company remains confident in its ability to grow revenue and execute on strategic priorities despite these challenges.
Q:What were the drivers of performance strength in the client business during the first quarter?
A:The performance strength in the client business during the first quarter was driven by a stronger mix of products and an increase in overall Average Selling Price (ASP), particularly in the desktop channel which includes strong gaming products. Additionally, there was an unexpected strength in the commercial segment which was previously underrepresented.
Q:How is the client business performing in the second quarter and what are the expectations?
A:In the second quarter, the client business is continuing to show strength with desktop performing above typical seasonality, a ramp in the commercial segment, and continued strength in gaming which is much better than typical seasonality. The business is also seeing sequential growth in the data center segment with the AIB business ramping and consoles starting their inventory replenishment. Despite a $700 million headwind from new export controls, the outlook for the second quarter is strong.
Q:How did the Instinct family perform in the first quarter and what are the expectations for the back half of the year?
A:The Instinct family's performance in the first quarter was in line with or slightly better than expectations, with customer interest being very high. The anticipated mid-year launch of the Mi 350 series is on track, and several deals, including a relationship with Oracle, have been announced. The expectation is for strong growth in the second half of the year due to investment in AI infrastructure.
Q:What was the impact of the data center GPU business in the first quarter and how is the additional revenue attributed to the export ban expected to be recognized?
A:The data center GPU business had a very strong performance in the first quarter, growing significantly with most of the additional revenue expected to come out in the September quarter (Q3). There was a minimal impact in the first quarter with the majority of the revenue expected to transition in Q3 and very little in Q2.
Q:What is the reason for the increase in inventory, and how is it related to future product ramps?
A:The increase in inventory is primarily due to the need to support the strong client and server ramp as well as the second half data center GPU ramp. Long lead times for future product ramps necessitate starting the production process with wafers immediately, which explains the increase in inventory.
Q:What is the status of the Mi 3 series launch and the company's readiness to address potential challenges?
A:The company is excited about the upcoming Mi 3 series launch and is well-prepared for it due to the Zt acquisition, which was done precisely to address large-scale, data center needs. The team is actively planning and designing with their Zt design team and customer design teams to address potential challenges from past deployments. The Mi 400 series has generated high enthusiasm from customers, and efforts are being made to learn from past deployment challenges.
Q:How has the AMD team contributed to the strong enterprise and on-premise server market share growth?
A:The strong enterprise and on-premise server market share growth is attributed to several factors including the strength of the product, broadened product portfolio for varied core counts and frequency ranges, and significant investments in the go-to-market space with added headcount and capabilities. The company is focusing on direct engagement with end-users and leveraging learnings from each deployment to benefit a wide range of industrial partners.
Q:What is the expected impact of the $1.5 billion revenue reduction on the company's financials in Q2 and Q3?
A:The expected impact of the $1.5 billion revenue reduction is that $700 million will be taken out in Q2 and the majority in Q3, affecting the company's financials in those periods.
Q:Is it a fair assessment to expect a return to a 54% plus gross margin in the back half of the year, considering the mix attributes?
A:Yes, it is a fair assessment to expect a return to a 54% plus gross margin in the back half of the year, considering the mix attributes. This is because the Q2 gross margin, excluding an 800 million charge related to the Mi 308, is around 52-4%, and factors such as improving client business gross margin and data center market share growth are expected to contribute to a slight improvement in the second half.
Q:Does the company have the necessary system level architecture capabilities, including interconnects, to address system-based architectures?
A:Yes, the company feels it has all the necessary pieces required for system level optimization, including partnerships with other industry players offering capabilities such as CPU, GPU, networking, and rack-scale architecture. They are focused on ensuring interoperability across different solutions, particularly in the interconnect space.
Q:What was the growth in the client business in the first quarter, and how does it compare to market growth and share gains?
A:The client business experienced unit growth, especially in desktops, and most growth was in high-end notebooks, commercial, and desktop overall. Market growth for the client business is expected to continue, and the company is seeing overall revenue share growth in the right places.
Q:How will macroeconomic factors, such as tariffs and inventory levels, affect the company's future plans?
A:The company is closely aligning with customers, monitoring inventory levels, and assessing consumption and sell-through to ensure a good overall inventory position. They are being agile in responding to changes and believe there is not a significant amount of pull-in or other impacts from macroeconomic factors.
Q:Did GPU sales grow sequentially in Q1, and what was the contribution of the MI 308 model?
A:Yes, GPU sales grew sequentially in Q1. The MI 308 model contributed to the revenue but is not specified in the exact amount. MI 325 and MI 300 were a majority of the revenue in Q1.
Q:What is the impact of AI diffusion rules and China export controls on the addressable market opportunity for AI accelerators?
A:AI diffusion rules and China export controls have a limited impact on the addressable market opportunity for AI accelerators as the company had already factored in the expectation of limitations on leading-edge GPUs into their Total Addressable Market (TAM) expectations. Active engagement with the government on AI diffusion rules is ongoing to ensure the continued use of the U.S. AI platform globally. The company is investing effort to ensure the rest of the world understands the importance of the overall ecosystem and the benefits of U.S. technology.
Q:How should traditional seasonality be factored into expectations for the second half of the year, considering potential pollings in the first half?
A:Traditional seasonality should not be factored into expectations for the second half of the year because the first half outperformed typical seasonal expectations. The company's guidance for the second half is based on a subseasonal period, and they are currently in a strong upgrade cycle for desktop business with continued strength in the gaming segment. The company is ramping up production to ensure the channel is full.
Q:What are the strategies being implemented to maximize the learning cycle for rack scale solutions?
A:The strategies to maximize the learning cycle for rack scale solutions include working closely with hyperscale partners to define solutions and addressing various areas that may require work, as well as collaborating with OEM partners who have gained insights from recent rack-scale solutions.
Q:Is it expected that the GPU business will grow year over year in the second half of the year despite challenges in the third quarter?
A:Yes, it is expected that the GPU business will grow year over year in the second half of the year, specifically in the fourth quarter, as the company anticipates strong double-digit growth for the full year following a decline in the second quarter attributed to specific, known factors.
Q:How does the decline in server GPUs in the first quarter compare to the overall data center performance?
A:The decline in server GPUs in the first quarter was less severe than the overall data center performance decline, indicating a more modest sequential decrease. The data center performance as a whole declined 5%, suggesting a better position for server GPUs compared to other components.
Q:What signs indicate a recovery in the embedded space for the second half of the year?
A:Signs of recovery in the embedded space for the second half of the year include improving order patterns and a better book-to-bill ratio, particularly in aerospace and defense and test measurement segments. There is also a sequential improvement in the industrial segment, although inventory issues still exist, and the overall demand pattern is improving.
Q:How should investors understand the Zt-related expenses in the second quarter and their implications for the full year and the second half?
A:Investors should understand that the incremental Opex from Zt is about $50 million, and the $2.3 billion figure includes everything related to Zt because the transaction closed on March 31. For the full year and the second half, investors should expect continued revenue growth to outpace Opex growth, with earnings per share growing much faster than revenue growth.
Q:How do cloud customers manage costs with the increasing use of multiple models and inference compute?
A:Cloud customers are looking for optimization around the use of multiple models and are seeking inference solutions that are cost-effective and efficient. AMD's product offerings with advantages in memory bandwidth and capacity are designed to meet these needs. Cloud customers are adopting a variety of models for different workloads, and AMD is addressing this trend with their software optimizations.
Q:What is the company's strategy regarding the competition with custom silicon in the AI space?
A:The company's strategy is to provide competitive TCO and choice to customers, leveraging their diverse product offerings that include both CPUs and GPUs. They aim to expand the overall inferencing capability in the market, believing that there is a place for both ASICs and CPUs in the evolving AI landscape. The company sees an opportunity to influence the market positively and is enhancing its training capabilities as well.