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Tempus AI (TEM.US) 2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
In Q1 2025, Tempest achieved a 75.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $255.7 million, with notable growth in genomics and data services. The company reported a 99.8% growth in quarterly gross profit to $155.2 million and improved its adjusted EBITDA to a negative $16.2 million. Tempest updated its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.25 billion. A significant development was a $200 million data and modeling license agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos, aiming to create the world's largest oncology foundation model, enhancing drug discovery and diagnostics.
会议速览
Tempest's 2025 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call
The conference call discusses Tempest's financial results for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, with remarks from the VP for Investor Relations, the CEO, and the CFO. Participants are advised on how to ask questions and warned about forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures.
Tempus Reports Record Q1 Revenue Growth and Announces Major Data and Modeling License Agreement
Tempus experienced a record-breaking Q1 with a 75.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $255.7 million, driven by strong growth in genomics and oncology testing. The company also announced a $200 million, three-year data and modeling license agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos to build the world's largest foundation model in oncology, expected to significantly advance precision medicine. Tempus has raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.25 billion, reflecting the robust performance and strategic partnerships.
Exploring Collaboration and Deal Structure in Pharmaceutical Innovation
The dialogue discusses the excitement and interest generated among major pharmaceutical companies following a significant $200 million data licensing deal involving foundational model development in oncology. It highlights the complex deal structure, including upfront fees, payments, and potential stock components, and the expectation for revenue recognition over a three-year period. The partnership is noted for its potential to leverage existing work and data, signaling a collaborative approach to advancing drug development.
Strong Performance and Future Growth Prospects of Hereditary Screening Business
The hereditary screening business has exceeded expectations, showing a growth rate significantly higher than the initially forecasted mid to high teens. Despite concerns about commoditization, the business is expected to continue growing due to the increasing demand for inherited risk assessment for various diseases, not just cancer, suggesting a promising future for high rates of growth.
Deep 6 Acquisition Enhances Clinical and Molecular Data Connectivity
The acquisition of Deep 6 aims to expand the company's capabilities in combining clinical and molecular data, facilitating richer data sets for patient insights and treatment responses. This move aligns with the strategy to focus on data and services acquisitions, enhancing connectivity to high-quality institutions and providing providers with advanced analytics tools for clinical trials and patient care.
Impact of Reimbursement on Gross Margin and Long-Term Investment Strategies
The speaker discusses the increase in oncology ASPs due to migrating volume to the FDA-approved version of an assay and the potential upside from XM reimbursement, which isn't yet factored into projections. They also outline plans to reinvest profits into the business post-EBITDA positivity, emphasizing investments in AI applications, genomics, and the MRD space for sustained growth and technological advancement.
Genomics Company Discusses Q1 Performance and Insights Business Growth
The company discusses the impact of weather on Q1 genomics volumes, emphasizing sustained growth over short-term fluctuations. They highlight strong performance in their insights business, driven by a significant contract with AstraZeneca and overall growth exceeding 50%, providing confidence for future years.
Leveraging Data and AI for Advancements in Cancer Diagnostics and Treatment Selection
The speaker discusses the future of diagnostics in cancer treatment, emphasizing the role of AI and technology in analyzing vast amounts of molecular data to derive insights for personalized diagnostics and therapy selection. They highlight the potential for AI to predict patient responses to specific drugs, such as EGFR inhibitors for non-small cell lung cancer, aiming to personalize treatments and improve outcomes.
Advancements in Precision Oncology: Leveraging AI for Personalized Treatment Insights
The speaker discusses the future of precision oncology, emphasizing the use of AI technology and extensive data to provide granular insights into patient recurrence likelihood, intervention strategies, and the severity of recurrence. Growth across the portfolio is noted, with MRD volumes limited due to lack of reimbursement.
Revenue Guidance Update and Contributions from Pathos and Ambre
The new revenue guidance for the year, raised by $10 million to $1.25 billion, includes contributions from Pathos and assumes high teens growth for Ambre, with conservative estimates for the latter's performance for the remainder of the year. The company expects to sign and deliver additional revenue beyond the initial visibility, showcasing a strong start to the year.
Impact of Macro Environment on Pharma and Biotech Data Business
Despite macroeconomic uncertainties including biotech funding and potential tariffs, the company emphasizes its strong position in the data business, serving primarily large pharma companies. While acknowledging some impact on biotech clients due to funding shortages, the company highlights the benefits its data services provide in enhancing trial efficiency and target identification, potentially mitigating budget constraints for its clients.
Update on Commercial Progress and Strategic Positioning in MRD Testing
The company discusses the strong demand and interest in their tumor-naive and tumor-informed MRD assays, noting the market's preference for informed assays due to their improved sensitivity and specificity. They highlight the challenges of managing volumes without current reimbursement and express confidence in their long-term positioning in the MRD space, particularly for cases with limited tissue availability.
要点回答
Q:How much did genomics revenue grow year over year in the first quarter of 2025?
A:The genomics revenue grew by about 89% year over year in the first quarter of 2025.
Q:What is the impact of the new data and modeling license agreement on the company's total remaining contract value and data usage?
A:The new data and modeling license agreement with AstraZeneca andPathos increased the company's total remaining contract value to more than $1 billion as of April 30. It also allows the company to use over 300 PB of data, which includes rich multimodal data connected to outcomes, to build a foundation model.
Q:What is the significance of the data and modeling license agreement for precision medicine and drug development?
A:The significance of the data and modeling license agreement lies in its role in advancing precision medicine. It is a step towards understanding at a molecular level why patients do and do not respond to cancer treatments. The agreement will provide insights that could lead to diagnostics playing a critical role in ensuring every patient is on the optimal therapeutic path and help drug companies to be more efficient and reduce the frequency of failed clinical trials.
Q:What is the deal structure of the $200 million data and modeling license agreement with AstraZeneca andPathos?
A:The deal structure involves a $100 million upfront fee from Pathos, potential stock components, and additional payments from AstraZeneca. The total amount of the deal, including these components, is expected to be reflected on the company's P&L in the coming months. The specifics of how these payments will be allocated on the P&L and the residual from Pathos were not fully detailed in the provided transcript.
Q:What are the financial details of the partnership between the speaker's company and AstraZeneca?
A:AstraZeneca made an initial payment in cash and has the option to make future payments partly cash and partly stock. The company has a $200 million data license and is part of a three-way partnership where AstraZeneca invests in a foundational model with a commitment of certain attributes, leveraging work done by Pathos and the speaker's company. This partnership is expected to generate revenue over a three-year period as the model is built.
Q:What were the surprising factors contributing to the performance of the hereditary business in the quarter?
A:The performance of the hereditary business exceeded expectations, growing at a much faster rate than the initial forecast of mid to high teens. The business has experienced rapid growth previously, and while the speaker notes that it may continue, they are not highlighting this for the audience and are instead watching the business performance month to month. As of the quarter, the business is performing strongly and there is no sign of slowing down.
Q:How does the company plan to use the deep integration of its products and what is the significance of this integration?
A:The deep integration of the company's products, referred to as deep Ed, is core to their business model. It involves combining large amounts of clinical and molecular data to build rich data sets, which can then be linked to outcome and response data. This integration allows for a molecular-level understanding of patients and their responses to treatment, facilitating advanced analytics and the ability to advance studies and clinical trials. It also enables providers to interrogate their own data sets, leading to a bidirectional feed of data that enhances the company's large data sets, now encompassing nearly a million patients.
Q:What is the company's investment strategy once it becomes profitable?
A:The company is looking to invest back into the business when it becomes profitable. The specific areas of interest for investment in 2025 and any potential changes to this wish list as a result of achieving profitability are not detailed in the transcript.
Q:What caused the $60 increase in oncology ASPs in Q1, and what are the plans for migrating XT volume to the FDA-approved version?
A:The $60 increase in oncology ASPs in Q1 was primarily due to the migration of Xt volume to the FDA-approved version of the assay, which has an Iasp with Medicare. Additionally, there was a small impact from some ASP improvement for a liquid biopsy code. By the end of Q1, 20% of XT volume was migrated to the FDA-approved version, with a target to migrate about 40% by the end of the year.
Q:What is the company's EBITDA outlook for the year, and how does it compare to competitors?
A:The company expects to achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity for the year, which is a significant milestone. This is particularly impressive when compared to other similarly situated companies that are still losing between 100 to 200 million dollars annually.
Q:What is the approach to investing in AI for healthcare and what are the specific areas of focus?
A:The company is mindful of the substantial opportunity to bring AI to healthcare at scale without underinvestment that could compromise long-term growth. Specific areas of investment include genomics, particularly the MRD space, with a tumor naïve platform under development and ongoing studies in various disease areas. Further, there are plans to invest in core AI applications and products, including the foundation model, data, and compute power for diagnostics at scale.
Q:What are the expectations for genomics volumes and the insights business in the remainder of the year?
A:While the company experienced delays due to weather-related issues in the first quarter, which affected genomics volumes, the focus is on long-term sustainable growth rather than short-term fluctuations. The company aims to continue investing in growth opportunities and has an expectation of solid performance despite the challenges faced in Q1.
Q:What competitive factors influenced the genomics business in the first quarter and what is the company's focus for future growth?
A:Competitive factors such as weather-induced issues impacted the genomics business in the first quarter, causing delays in test deliveries. The company, however, does not focus extensively on short-term profitability at the expense of long-term growth. The emphasis is on sustained growth over time rather than a single quarter's performance.
Q:How is the insights business performing, and what recent developments have been made?
A:The insights business is off to a good start, with the data and services business growing more than 40% and the insights business growing 58%. The company has a strong backlog with $940 million of real contract value yet to be delivered, which includes a recent deal with Astra that will increase the total contract value over a billion dollars. This visibility provides confidence for the remainder of the year and into the next several years.
Q:Can the company identify any tests in its portfolio that are gaining market share?
A:The company did not specify which tests in its broader portfolio are picking up share in the marketplace but implied that they are focusing on leveraging their data and collaborations with pharma to achieve early traction in the MRD space and capitalize on opportunities with partners like Astra.
Q:What differentiates Tempest's tests in terms of insights they provide to clinicians and patients?
A:Tempest's tests are differentiated by their ability to derive insights from a massive amount of data, including hundreds of petabytes of molecular data connected to vast amounts of outcomes, revealing associations that have not been previously understood.
Q:What challenges are associated with the use of the NCC guideline for non small cell lung cancer patients?
A:The NCC guideline recommends profiling non small cell lung cancer patients for EGFR positivity, but only about half of the patients respond to the drug, with different response durations even among those who do respond.
Q:How might AI and technology, specifically from companies like Tempus, change the approach to cancer treatment?
A:AI and technology may enable the prediction of whether a patient will respond to an EGFR inhibitor before they start the drug, which could lead to the design of intelligent, personalized diagnostics for therapy selection and more.
Q:What types of insights will data drive in the context of patient recurrence and intervention?
A:Data will provide greater granularity in understanding not just whether a patient will recur, but also how to intervene, how aggressive the treatment should be, and the meaning of specific molecular signatures like methylome signatures or mutations in the blood.
Q:What factors contributed to the updated revenue guidance for the year, and does it include Pathos's contribution?
A:The updated revenue guidance includes some amount of new Pathos revenue. The company has visibility into revenue, especially data revenue, and aims to sign and deliver a certain amount in the year, which has been the case for some time.
Q:How is the company assessing the risk of TCV being canceled or pulled out due to a choppier macro environment?
A:The company has not seen a significant impact on large pharma due to their multiyear, committed relationships. The data business benefits from biotechs being more efficient with their budgets, using the types of data licensed by the company to design trials or identify targets effectively.
Q:What has been the impact of the lack of funding for biotechs on the data business?
A:The lack of funding for biotechs over the last 24 months has impacted some biotechs, but it represents a small percentage of the company's overall business. The majority of TCV and revenue comes from large pharma with larger R&D budgets.
Q:What is the company's strategy for the tumor naive assay and how is the market reception?
A:The company is managing volumes for the tumor naive assay because it is not currently reimbursed by MCDX. The demand for the tumor informed assay in non small cell lung cancer and breast cancer has been strong, with informed being preferred due to its improved sensitivity and specificity. The company is also working on improving the tumor naive assay.
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