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礼来公司(LLY.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Eli Lilly reported a 45% revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong performances from various products. The company highlighted pipeline milestones, including approvals and phase 3 trials for multiple indications. Key discussions also covered the promising oral GLP-1 program, significant US manufacturing investments, and strategies to address market access and competition challenges.
会议速览
Lily Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Overview
The call introduces the Lily Q1 2025 earnings report, highlighting the participation of various executives and outlining the focus on non-GAAP financial measures. It emphasizes the potential for actual results to differ from projections due to several factors.
Lilly's Q1 Growth and Pipeline Advances
The company reported a 45% revenue growth in Q1, driven by key products and the advancement of its pipeline, including the successful Achieve one trial for a type 2 diabetes treatment and several other significant clinical milestones. Additionally, the company announced plans to significantly increase its US manufacturing investment and addressed concerns regarding tariffs and trade, advocating for enhanced tax incentives over tariffs.
Q1 2025 Financial Performance and Revenue Growth Analysis
The company experienced a strong Q1 with a 45% revenue growth, driven by key product sales and improved gross margins. Marketing and R&D expenses increased due to new launches and late-stage asset development. The effective tax rate and earnings per share were negatively impacted by acquisition-related charges. Revenue growth was particularly strong in the US and Europe, with volume growth offsetting price declines.
Global Pharmaceutical Company's Q1 2025 Performance Update
The pharmaceutical company experienced a 17% increase in revenue outside the U.S., driven by volume growth from Manjaro. Key product updates include encouraging uptake for atropic dermatitis treatment, approval for Crohn's disease, and strong sales growth for Manjaro and Montero in the cardiometabolic health segment. Additionally, the company anticipates further access improvements and launches for various treatments in oncology and neuroscience.
Update on Financial Guidance and Progress in R&D for a Novel GLP-1 Agonist
The company presents strong Q1 performance and updates its 2025 financial guidance, absorbing the impact of announced tariffs. Notably, it highlights the successful phase 3 trial of its novel GLP-1 agonist, demonstrating efficacy, safety, and weight loss outcomes comparable to existing injectable GLP-1 monotherapies, with a focus on managing diabetes and obesity.
Phase 3 Trial Results: Tolerability and Safety Profile of Weekly Injectable GLP-1
The first phase 3 trial for a weekly injectable GLP-1 demonstrated a favorable tolerability profile with low discontinuation rates due to adverse events. Results will be presented at the 85th Scientific Sessions of the American Diabetes Association and published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Update on Clinical Trials and Regulatory Progress in Diabetes, Obesity, and Oncology
The company outlines its 12-month plan for diabetes and obesity trials, aiming to submit for approval for obesity later this year and type 2 diabetes in 2026. It also discusses withdrawing a U.S. application due to regulatory requirements, initiating new phase 3 trials in obesity and chronic low back pain, and advancing a phase 3 program for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Additionally, it announces progress in oncology with a new phase 3 program for KRS G 12 C mutant resected adjuvant lung cancer and the advancement of five new medicines into phase 1 clinical trials.
Navigating PBM Dynamics and Formulary Access in Obesity Medication Market
Despite concerns over PBM dynamics impacting formulary access for obesity medications, the focus remains on developing and distributing better, more accessible medicines. The company emphasizes growing market share, particularly in the private pay segment, and is excited about the potential of oral and injectable therapies, aiming to drive brand preference and share while awaiting new product launches.
Oral Medicine Development Strategy for Broad Indications Including Cardio, Immunology, and Neuroscience
The speaker discusses the potential of oral medicine, particularly or GP ro, for use in various broad indications beyond weight loss, including cardio, immunology, and neuroscience. They express confidence in pursuing multiple directions and combinations for patient benefit, highlighting ongoing innovation in oral incarns and multifunctional orals.
Exploring the Role of Oral Medications in Treating Obesity and Diabetes
The discussion highlights the potential of oral medications in addressing obesity and diabetes, emphasizing their advantages over injectables due to patient preference and the potential to reach a broader patient base. It outlines studies aiming to switch patients from injectables to oral treatments and targets segments of the population with comorbid risks or overweight conditions, indicating a significant global opportunity and manufacturing benefits.
Pricing Strategy and Portfolio Strength in Chronic Weight Management Medications
The discussion highlights the strategic approach to pricing new oral weight loss medications at a meaningful discount compared to injectable competitors, aiming for more transparent pricing and reduced gross-to-net spreads. The portfolio's expansion targeting a broader BMI range is expected to strengthen the company's market position and leverage in PBM discussions.
Impact of CBS Announcement on Access to Affordable Medicine and Market Competition
The CBS announcement sparks discussion on its potential to increase access to affordable medicine for smaller employers and employees, versus concerns over reduced choice and market share shifts. A recent study highlights significant benefits and ROI within two years, emphasizing the positive impact on patients and employers opting in. However, the move could limit options for patients currently using specific medications, raising questions about market reaction and share movement.
Update on Trailblazer Alzheimer's Study Progress and Success Criteria
The team has completed enrollment in the TB 3 study, an event-based trial aiming to significantly reduce the risk of Alzheimer's symptoms in patients with elevated amyloid levels. Success is measured by preventing progression to the symptomatic stage, using the CDR global score as the endpoint. The study's readout could occur earlier than the projected 2027 date, depending on the accrual of progression events.
Atlas Launch Dynamics and Peak Sales Aspirations
The company discusses the strong initial uptake and high aspirations for Atlas, a new medicine targeting Atopic Dermatitis, highlighting positive physician feedback and aiming for broad access and coverage in the U.S. market despite competitive dynamics.
Market Dynamics and Formulary Positioning in Obesity Medications
The discussion focuses on the rarity of one-on-one formulary approaches in the obesity medication market, addressing the impact of price leverage and payer strategies on managing spend. Despite the competitive landscape, strong market performance and momentum are emphasized, with ongoing efforts in various sectors including PDMS, Medicaid, auto Medicare, and self-pay markets.
FDA's Request for Additional Data on Titi and Hep Test
The FDA has requested additional data from multiple trials to support the indication for the Titi and Hep test, citing the need for further evidence beyond the strong benefits observed in the initial study. Despite the positive outcomes, this requirement may limit investment in addressing significant unmet medical needs, considering the population is already covered under the obesity indication.
Update on Financial Guidance and Clinical Trial Safety Profiles
The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance, noting a high single-digit price erosion consistent with previous forecasts. Inquiries were also addressed regarding the safety profile of a drug in clinical trials, including concerns over hepatic safety signals and diarrhea rates, with assurances provided that no significant safety issues were observed.
Strategies and Outcomes of Competitive Formulary Positioning in the Pharmaceutical Industry
The discussion explores past strategies involving aggressive formulary positioning to gain competitive advantage in the pharmaceutical market, specifically within the context of IL-17 competitors. It highlights the shift from being a follower to a leader in a new category, the impact of such strategies on market share and sales, and the evolving dynamics with increased competition and product differentiation. The speaker emphasizes the importance of offering more choices in the marketplace, particularly in areas of significant innovation, and discusses the company's stance against using payer channels exclusively to drive market share.
Clarification on Zap Bounded Coverage and Employer Opt-in Levels
An investor inquiry addresses concerns over the number of patients covered by CBS Camlock for Zap bounded, with a response indicating that the coverage is a subset of accounts and employer opt-in levels are not high.
Discussion on Tariffs, Supply Chain Repatriation, and Tax Reforms in the Pharma Industry
The dialogue explores discussions with the Trump administration regarding tariffs outside of the 232 investigation, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry's stance on repatriating supply chains, addressing trade imbalances, and the impact of tax reforms on drug properties' profits and tax revenue in the United States. It highlights the industry's efforts to move towards a more resilient sourcing strategy and the complexities involved in balancing efficiency, market mechanisms, and regulatory environments.
Exploring Cash Pay Approach and Distribution Strategies for Pharmaceutical Products
The discussion focuses on the cash pay approach for pharmaceutical products in the US, particularly regarding the availability of certain medication vials in pharmacy chains and the potential for expanding distribution channels beyond online portals. Insights are shared on the successful performance of the sales pay segment, the intention to add more products and services to facilitate patient access, and the impact of price changes on market growth.
Disciplined Approach to Pricing and Margins in Addressing Overweight and Obesity in America
The company discusses its disciplined strategy for pricing and margins, aiming to address 75% of overweight and obese Americans with GLP-1 therapy, emphasizing sustainability and patient access.
Expectations and Tolerability in Obesity Studies with GLP-1 Monotherapy
The discussion focuses on expectations for weight loss and tolerability in obesity studies using GLP-1 monotherapy, referencing a 70-week trial that achieved about 13.7% weight loss and had a 21% vomiting rate. It's noted that adverse events typically occur early during dose escalation, with no late-onset concerns observed.
Industry Focus on Resolving IRA Issue Amidst Drug Pricing Risks and Policy Changes
The industry is currently concentrating on addressing the IRA problem concerning small molecules, while managing risks related to drug pricing reforms and potential legislation. There's a bipartisan appetite for pursuing drug pricing issues, but the complexity involves discussions on net pricing in Europe, PBM reform, and 340B matters. The long-term goal is to facilitate a trade discussion with Europe that could alter drug pricing dynamics on the continent.
Update on Access and Coverage for Obesity Treatment
The company has seen significant progress in employer and Medicaid coverage for their obesity treatment, increasing from 50% to mid-to-high 50% for employers and from 11 to 14 states for Medicaid by the end of 2024. They anticipate further advancements in the market, noting their competitive pricing and strong momentum with over 75% of patients starting anti-obesity treatment with their product.
Update on Phase 2 Trial Completion and Data Disclosure for Lean Mass and Fat Mass Effect
The company discusses the completion of two Phase 2 trials by June, focusing on the effect on lean mass and fat mass. The first trial's data, involving semaglutide, will be disclosed first, followed by the ongoing trial with tzip. Specific disclosure dates for the latter have not been commented on.
要点回答
Q:What were the results and significance of the Achieve one trial in Pogo Pro?
A:The Achieve one trial in Pogo Pro for patients with type 2 diabetes met expectations and represented the first step toward Eli Lilly's goal of creating a medicine with injectable GLP-1 efficacy, safety, and tolerability, but with the convenience of a once-daily pill. It has the potential to impact hundreds of millions of people with chronic diseases and is expected to deliver phase 3 data across type 2 diabetes and obesity over the next 12 months.
Q:How much did revenue grow in Q1, and what are the key products contributing to this growth?
A:Revenue grew 45% in Q1 compared to Q1 of 2024, with key products such as Jardiance, Humalog, Kexeva, Enbrel, and Zyprexa contributing to a revenue increase of more than $4 billion, now accounting for $7.5 billion of the company's revenue.
Q:What were some of the key pipeline milestones achieved in Q1?
A:Key pipeline milestones in Q1 included the approval of Jyveka in the EU for CLL, Ovo in the US, EU, and Japan for Crohn's disease, and the initiation of a phase 3 program for Olimar acid in resected adjuvant non-small cell lung cancer.
Q:What is Eli Lilly's stance on tariffs and trade?
A:Eli Lilly supports the US government's goals to increase domestic investment but does not believe tariffs are the right mechanism. They suggest that enhanced tax incentives or the extension of the Tax Cut and Job Act would better achieve these goals. They emphasize the negative effect of tariffs on the company, which has a large US manufacturing footprint with ongoing projects to build and expand new sites, and urge the administration to negotiate deals with key trading partners to remove harmful tariffs and non-starter market access barriers.
Q:What is the impact of current tariffs on Eli Lilly's financial outlook?
A:The currently announced tariffs do not materially change Eli Lilly's 2025 financial outlook. However, an expansion of tariffs to other geographies or increases in retaliatory tariffs would negatively impact the company.
Q:What were the Q1 2025 financial performance results?
A:Q1 2025 financial performance showed revenue growth of 45%, gross margin as a percentage of revenue at 83.5%, an increase of 1% from the same quarter last year, and a non-GAAP adjusted performance margin of 42.6%, an increase of over 11 percentage points from Q1 2024. The Q1 effective tax rate was 20.2%, and earnings per share were $3.34, inclusive of a negative impact from acquisition IP and D charges of $1.72 per share.
Q:What factors contributed to the revenue growth in Q1?
A:Revenue growth in Q1 was driven by strong volume growth of key products like Sypora and Monaterro in the US, a one-time benefit from further restructuring the alliance with Al in Europe, and volume growth from Manjaro in Japan and China.
Q:How did the performance of key products contribute to Eli Lilly's Q1 revenue?
A:Key products' performance contributed to Q1 revenue through strong uptake in Immunology with Otezla for psoriasis and dermatitis, new patient starts for Crohn's disease, and the launch of Opyli in Europe for relapse or refractory CLL. In Oncology, Opyli was approved in Europe and is expected to launch in the second quarter. Cardiometabolic health saw robust performance with both Monaterro and Manjaro, driven by strong sales and new prescriptions.
Q:What is the updated 2025 financial guidance mentioned in the speech?
A:The updated 2025 financial guidance is not specifically detailed in the provided text; however, it is mentioned that the company has maintained strong performance in Q1, and as a result, the revenue and performance margin guidance for non-GAAP earnings per share remains unchanged, aside from Q1 charges related to IPR and D.
Q:What were the results of the recently completed orpha glip phase 3 trial?
A:The recently completed orpha glip phase 3 trial, named Achieve one, showed that orpha gliptin could deliver efficacy, safety, and tolerability similar to the best seen for available GLP 1 monotherapy injectables. It exhibited an average reduction of 1.3% to 1.6% in hemoglobin A1c, with more than 65% of patients achieving an A1C of 6.5% or less, which is below the American Diabetes Association's threshold for diabetes. At the highest dose, patients lost approximately 7.9% of their body weight, in line with existing injectable GLP 1s in patients with diabetes. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal, and the safety profile was consistent with the GLP-1 class, with low discontinuations due to adverse events.
Q:What are the upcoming clinical trials and expected outcomes related to orpa glip?
A:Upcoming clinical trials related to orpa glip include studies in people with obesity without diabetes and with obesity and diabetes, as well as trials in hypertension. The company expects to present full results from Achieve one at the Ada's 85th Scientific sessions and publish them in a peer-reviewed journal. Over the next 12 months, they expect to get results from four additional diabetes trials and two obesity phase 3 trials. Assuming success, they plan to submit orpa glip for obesity in Q4 and type 2 diabetes in the first half of 2026.
Q:What has been the company's response to the PBM dynamics concerning their obesity drug?
A:The company's response to the PBM dynamics concerning their obesity drug has been to focus on making better and more accessible medicines, and they are excited about the oral potential of orpa glip for wide distribution. They are pursuing a strategy that does not involve reducing access and choice for doctors and patients but aims to expand it. They are committed to driving share and preference for their brand while addressing the impact of PBMs and working through the situation.
Q:What are the potential indications for orpa glip beyond weight loss?
A:The potential indications for orpa glip beyond weight loss include a broad cardiovascular indication, combinations, and possibly areas such as immunology and neuroscience. The molecule has shown potential in type 2 diabetes and obesity, and there are plans to explore other therapeutic areas. The company is also pursuing multifunctional orals and has another molecule in development.
Q:What is the envisioned role of orpa glip in the core obesity and diabetes market?
A:The envisioned role of orpa glip in the core obesity and diabetes market is to play a significant part by leveraging its oral convenience and broader applicability. While the exact market share orfor glip will take over time is not specified, the company's strategy includes challenging the injectable market and expanding its reach within the market. However, detailed insights into the long-term market share expectations for orpa glip are not provided in the transcript.
Q:What are the potential benefits of oral medications over injectables in the context of type 2 diabetes and obesity?
A:The potential benefits of oral medications over injectables include reaching a global market that's more challenging with injectables alone, providing a significant opportunity for the company, and potentially offering a benefit from a manufacturing perspective.
Q:What are the indications being considered for the oral medication in weight loss?
A:The indications being considered for the oral medication in weight loss include switching patients from injectable to oral treatments for maintaining weight loss and reaching segments of the population with comorbid risk factors who have overweight but not obesity and need sustained lower body weight for health reasons.
Q:What are the expectations regarding the pricing strategy for the oral medication, and how does it relate to the portfolio of weight loss medications?
A:The company aims to move away from high list prices and deep discounts towards more transparent pricing. They plan to continue narrowing the gap between list and actual prices to provide a more similar basis for cost-sharing between patients and payers. This approach is expected to reduce gross to net spreads and rebate flows, resulting in more transparent overall pricing. It's part of their strategy to have a portfolio of weight loss medications in 2026.
Q:What is the company's position on the recent changes in the atopic dermatitis market with the introduction of a new competitor?
A:The company views the introduction of a new competitor in the atopic dermatitis market positively, especially regarding opt-in rates among smaller employers. They believe that more opt-in rates could lead to a net good for the business, as most employers who opt in tend not to opt out. They also highlight the importance of maintaining a wide range of choices for patients.
Q:What is the progress in the preclinical trial for the Alzheimer's disease and what would indicate a successful trial?
A:The progress in the preclinical trial for Alzheimer's disease is based on the number of progression events accrued. A successful trial would be indicated by a significant reduction in the risk of patients experiencing symptoms of Alzheimer's disease, as measured by the CDR global score.
Q:What is the company's outlook on peak sales for the new medication and the competitive dynamics in the market?
A:The company has high aspirations for the new medication, which is a great medicine with amazing data from clinical trials. They see strong uptake in the market and positive feedback from physicians, especially in the atopic dermatitis market. Despite heavy competitive dynamics, the company is confident in the breadth of the label and the perceived efficacy differentiation. They expect to overcome competitive challenges and achieve broad access and continued acceleration of uptake.
Q:What percentage of covered lives are using the one of one approach in formulary positioning?
A:The speaker is asking about the percentage of covered lives using the one of one approach in formulary positioning and the likelihood of this trend evolving going forward.
Q:How is the one of one formulary approach being taken by payers and how is it expected to evolve?
A:Some payers are adopting the one of one formulary approach as a method to manage spend. The approach is seen as an evolution in the market, and it's expected to continue across various segments like PDMS, Medicaid, and Medicare, as well as self-pay patients.
Q:What detail was provided about the FDA's expectations for additional data regarding the TITI and Hep test update?
A:The FDA wants multiple trials to support the indication for the TITI and Hep test, as the strong performance seen in the study was not sufficient on its own.
Q:How has the market response been to the new obesity indication for the product?
A:The market response to the new obesity indication has been positive, with strong growth noted in the first quarter. However, the challenges with the TITI and Hep test update and potential investment curtailment in this area are noted as negative aspects.
Q:What is the company's outlook on price erosion for the year?
A:The company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year, indicating a midpoint in the 32% range for price erosion. They saw consistent high single-digit price erosion in the first quarter, with a 6% decrease in price.
Q:Are there any concerns regarding the hepatic safety profile and diarrhea rates observed in the clinical trials?
A:There were no significant hepatic safety signals or imbalances inALT above five times the upper limit of normal or in diarrhea rates observed in the clinical trials. Although diarrhea rates were higher in the study, they were also higher in the placebo group and varied by country. Rates of diarrhea were not the main focus for assessing tolerability, and discontinuations due to adverse events were considered more important.
Q:What was the impact of formulary positioning on share and incremental sales for Tilly's drug?
A:Formulary positioning was used as a lever to reduce choice against other competitors. This strategy resulted in one of one formulary placement for the brand, but it was not the preferred strategy. The company aimed for multiple choices in the market, especially given the high level of innovation in the category.
Q:How many patients on Zaltrap are currently being covered by CVS Caremark?
A:The company does not have a specific number of patients on Zaltrap covered by CVS Caremark to share. However, they mentioned that it is a subset of accounts and emphasized the low level of employer enrollment in those plans.
Q:What discussions have taken place with the Trump administration regarding tariffs and drug supply chains?
A:There have been discussions regarding the Trump administration's interests in having drug manufacturers record more profits in the U.S. and generate more tax revenue. The focus has been on national security aspects through Section 232 investigations and the repatriation of supply chains, as well as the potential for raising revenue through a reconciliation process.
Q:What are the implications of the 232 review on the availability and pricing of generic medications?
A:The 232 review has merit as it addresses the issue of commonly used generic medications, some of which were invented by Lilly or other innovative companies, moving toward offshore single-source competition. The branded industry would like to help with the problem of no real good pricing available, which results in a lack of onshore presence. The review could help determine if tariffs could shift the supply chain.
Q:How has Lilly adjusted its sourcing strategy to become more resilient?
A:Lilly has decided to move away from just a pure efficiency focus to a more resilient position by rebalancing its sourcing. This means they have more choices and could potentially mitigate the transient effect on Lilly from global trade imbalances, although the long-term impact is not significantly affected.
Q:What role does tax reform play in addressing the trade imbalance issue for Lilly?
A:Tax reform is key to resolving the income tax situation that has led to trade imbalances. Lilly has made investments to contain the tax issues internally, but真正的解决办法是通过税制改革调整国内与国外的税率差异。
Q:What is Lilly's position on the global tax provisions introduced in the 2017 tax reform?
A:Lilly notes that due to the 2017 tax reform, there are provisions for a minimum global tax, which means they already pay tax on foreign-sourced income. Consequently, whether they move operations back to the U.S. or not, the company would still face an increase in income taxes in third countries.
Q:How is Lilly approaching the cash pay approach for patients and potential expansion of that model?
A:Lilly has been pleased with the performance in its sales pay segment and is removing friction for patients. They intend to continue adding products and services to further enable patients to access medications at a relatively competitive price. While no specific announcement was made, the company's focus is on expanding access and affordability for patients.
Q:What are the expected outcomes of Lilly's studies on the new obesity treatment regarding weight loss and tolerability?
A:Lilly's new obesity treatment is a monotherapy GLP-1 agonist, not a dual agonist, which is expected to result in weight loss distinct from that seen with dual agonists. The company anticipates around a 13.7% weight loss with the GLP-1 monotherapy based on past results. As for tolerability, the study anticipates about a 21% incidence of vomiting, which is a reliable indicator. Discontinuations and tolerability events are expected to occur early in the study when patients increase their dose.
Q:What is Lilly's stance on potential drug pricing legislation and its impact on the industry?
A:Lilly acknowledges that discussing drug pricing risk is not coherent without also discussing real net pricing versus Europe. The company suggests that the discussion should involve PBM reform and the 340B program. The long-term goal is to change how drugs are priced in Europe and have the U.S. pay more for R&D costs. The focus is currently on fixing the IRA problem with small molecules. While acknowledging the risk, Lilly aims to manage it as it addresses policy changes in the background.
Q:What progress has Lilly made regarding access and coverage for its products in the U.S.?
A:Lilly has made significant progress in formulary access, starting with about 50% of employers at the beginning of 2024 and reaching mid to the high 70s by the end. In Medicaid, the number of states covering the company's products increased from 11 to 14. The company also anticipates progress in America for OSA during the second half of the year. With a strong market presence and a price point of $349 being competitive, Lilly expects to continue executing and making progress.
Q:When might we expect data from Lilly's Mama phase 2 trial and what should we expect from it?
A:Lilly's Mama phase 2 trial data was discussed, noting that the data from the first phase 2 trial, conducted before the acquisition of the assets and in combination with semaglutide, would be disclosed first. The data from the ongoing trial in combination with tzip is of greater interest, but no specific timeline was provided. The goal of the trials is to observe positive effects on lean mass and a decrease in fat mass.
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