维萨卡公司(V.US)2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Visa reported strong Q2 2025 financial results with net revenue up 9% YoY, driven by resilient business strategies including consumer payments, commercial solutions, and innovation. Cross-border volume grew by 13%, and the company saw significant advancements in tap-to-everything technology and commercial volumes. Despite global economic uncertainties, Visa anticipates low double-digit growth in adjusted net revenue and adjusted operating expenses for Q3, with adjusted EPS growth in the high teens. The company's diverse business model and focus on client engagement have contributed to its robust performance.
会议速览

The call welcomes participants to Visa's fiscal second quarter 2025 earnings conference, introducing the CEO and CFO who will discuss financial highlights and forward-looking statements, with a reminder about the availability of the webcast replay and financial documents on the company's website.

Despite a dynamic and uncertain environment, Visa reports a 9% year-over-year increase in net revenue, with strong growth in payments volume and processed transactions globally.

The company emphasizes its focus on innovation and product development in consumer payments, commercial services, and money movement solutions, highlighting growth in credentials, tokenization, and expanding acceptance globally. Key developments include significant advancements in tap-to-pay technologies, partnerships for open-loop transit cards, and the launch of stablecoin settlements, alongside enhancements in commercial and B2B travel verticals.

This quarter, significant deals were signed to offer Visa Direct through digital applications for rapid bank account transfers, enhancing real-time money movement capabilities domestically and cross-border. Partnerships with Jack Henry, Checkout.com, and Tabae highlight the strategic focus on growing the business and expanding with existing customers, driving a 22% growth in value-added services revenue.

The company successfully executes its strategy, entering five new countries across four regions, securing deals with notable banks and retailers. Key innovations include a new AI-powered version of Authorized.net, a unified checkout experience, and enhanced fraud protection solutions utilizing machine learning and AI. Additionally, the open banking platform, powered by Tink, reaches a milestone of serving over 10,000 merchants across Europe.

At Investor Day, the speaker discussed the evolution of Visa's service stack, emphasizing global connectivity, infrastructure, and a services architecture that enables the creation of client solutions. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Visa reported strong financial performance halfway through its fiscal year, with resilient consumer spending and stable trends in cross-border volumes. The company is focused on innovation, serving clients, and leveraging its diverse business model to capture future opportunities, as demonstrated by its resilience in various environments.

The company reported robust Q2 results with global payments volume increasing by 8% YoY, cross-border volume (excluding intra-Europe) up by 13%, and total processed transactions growing by 9%. Net revenue rose by 9% YoY in nominal dollars and 11% in constant dollars, driven by resilient consumer spending, lower incentives, and better-than-expected value-added services. International payments volume grew by 9% YoY, while US payments volume increased by 6%, with e-commerce outpacing face-to-face spend. Cross-border volume showed a 13% increase, with e-commerce and travel segments up by 14% and 12%, respectively, demonstrating a well-distributed geographic mix and revenue diversity.

Growth moderation between Q1 and Q2 was attributed to leap year effects, Ramadan and Easter timing, currency depreciation in some countries, and reduced travel from Canada to the US. Despite these challenges, cross-border volume growth matched Q4 2024 levels and surpassed pre-Covid trends.

The company experienced robust financial results, marked by a 9% year-over-year increase in service revenue, 10% growth in data processing revenue, and a 24% surge in other revenue primarily due to advisory and value added services. International transaction revenue rose by 10%, influenced by FX impacts. Client incentives grew by 15%, lower than anticipated due to deal timing factors. Key drivers included strong payments volume and cross-border transactions.

Revenue increased by 13% year-over-year, driven by a 6% growth in commercial payment volume and a 28% rise in direct transactions. Value-added services revenue grew to $2.6 billion, with operating expenses up 7% primarily due to increases in personnel, marketing, and depreciation costs. The tax rate was lower than expected at 16.9%, contributing to an EPS of $2.76, up 10% over the previous year. The company bought back $4.5 billion in stock and distributed $1.2 billion in dividends, with a new $30 billion repurchase program authorized in April.

Driver trends showed strength through April 21, with payment volume up 8% year over year, debit up 9%, and credit up 7%. Cross-border transactions excluding Europe grew 12%, while travel and e-commerce volumes increased 13% year over year.

The company outlines its financial expectations for Q3 and Q4, emphasizing adjusted net revenue growth, operating expenses, non-operating income, tax rates, and EPS growth, while accounting for factors like tariffs, FX volatility, and acquisition impacts.

During a Q&A session, a company representative emphasizes the focus on supporting clients through data sharing, product solutions, and advisory services amidst economic challenges, rather than pursuing immediate partnership deals.

The speaker discusses the effects of foreign exchange movements on the travel and cross border business, noting a slight slowdown in growth, particularly domestically. They emphasize the importance of monitoring the situation closely and highlight the business's diversity, especially in cross border transactions, as a key factor in navigating this period.

The speaker discusses the effects of currency weaknesses and a slowdown in travel, particularly from Canada to the US, on cross-border transactions. They note that while there has been a notable decrease in this corridor, the overall impact on global travel volume and revenue is small due to business diversification. Assumptions for the remainder of the fiscal year are based on the average of March and April data, projecting cross-border transactions to remain slightly below the FY24 Q4 levels.

The discussion focuses on the robust growth in value add services, with inquiries about its performance through the cycle and the varying revenue models. Additional insights are sought on the projected growth for the latter part of the year.

The company reports strong performance attributed to its strategy, execution, and product portfolio. About 65% of revenue comes from enhancing Visa payments, with growing efforts in enabling diverse payment types and services. Notable progress includes relaunching the authorized do net platform for small business checks and developing unified checkout experiences for sellers of all sizes. Financial successes are also seen in issuing solutions, risk and security solutions, and advisory services. Further financial insights are expected from Chris regarding the quarter's performance and future outlook.

The speaker discusses the company's preparedness for various economic cycles, highlighting increased exposure to everyday spending, a larger debit business, more e-commerce spend, and geographical diversification as key factors. They emphasize the resilience and diversification of the business, noting that 65% of the operations have a close correlation to visa transactions, with the remainder independent of these transactions, offering a buffer against potential economic impacts.

The speaker clarifies that despite Q2 incentives growing 15% lower than expected due to deal timing, the outlook for the full year shows modest growth rate increases. Anticipated early renewals and client-related performance adjustments are expected to drive higher growth in the second half of the year, with Q3 and Q4 growth projected to be sequentially higher than previous quarters.

The discussion highlights the factors affecting the discrepancy between nominal cross-border volumes and international revenue, including FX volatility, client mix, pricing, and hedging impacts. Speakers delve into the specifics of these elements, emphasizing the conservative approach to FX volatility, the yield dynamics of US inbound transactions, and the timing of pricing benefits. Additionally, they address questions regarding hedging effects and the minimal impact of de minimis and China-related tariffs on volumes.

The discussion highlights the query regarding the normalization of US volume growth considering the effects of Easter and potential spend pull-forward due to tariffs. The responder emphasizes the stable and healthy environment, cautioning against over-extrapolation from short-term data and the need to observe the quarter's progression for a clearer trend.

The discussion highlights the observed weakness in travel and entertainment sectors among affluent groups, contrasting with strength in retail goods. Despite some fluctuations, overall volumes remain healthy and stable across discretionary and non-discretionary spending, with higher spend bands showing faster growth than in previous quarters.

Despite increased geopolitical uncertainty affecting consumer and business confidence, the speaker emphasizes resilience in spending, strong employment, steady wage growth, moderated inflation, and healthy consumer balance sheets. They remain committed to their investment and product roadmap, while staying vigilant for potential adjustments and seeing opportunities for M&A in the current environment.

The discussion highlights Visa's historical resilience during economic downturns, emphasizing diversification in business, exposure to everyday spend and eCommerce, and the ability to adjust revenue and expenses to maintain margins.

The discussion highlights the growing interest and investment in the stablecoin space, noting a $200 million milestone in settlement flows. Despite this, stablecoin usage remains a small portion of overall settlement volume. Optimism is expressed regarding potential clearer and more pragmatic regulations from the US government and other countries, which could signify a tipping point for stablecoin adoption. The company is actively exploring broader product opportunities and partnerships within the stablecoin sector, emphasizing the early stage of development in relation to their broader business operations. Additionally, navigating global risks, especially in the context of trade disputes, is recognized as a significant consideration for a US-based company operating globally.

The company emphasizes its deep engagement with governments and regulators worldwide, leveraging a dedicated team and country managers to navigate challenging environments. Despite increasing nationalism and regulations, the company boasts a successful track record in operating within highly regulated markets, utilizing tailored strategies tested across similar conditions. Collaboration with clients and partners plays a crucial role in educating governments about the global payments market's complexities, ensuring mutual success.
要点回答
Q:What were the main financial results and business drivers for Visa's fiscal second quarter 2025?
A:Visa's main financial results for the fiscal second quarter 2025 include $9.6 billion in net revenue, up 9% year over year. Key business drivers were strong, with even growth despite the lapping of Leap Day from the previous year, and consumer spending remained resilient. In constant dollars, overall payments volume grew 8%, US payments volume grew 6%, and international payments volume grew 9%. Cross-border volume excluding intra-European transactions rose 13%, and processed transactions grew 9% year over year.
Q:How is Visa continuing to execute its strategy and what are the recent innovations?
A:Visa is continuing to execute its strategy by expanding credentials and acceptance, driving user engagement, and growing both carded and non-carded volumes. Recent innovations include the continued expansion of tokenization with a total of 13.7 billion tokens, 50% of eco-Merce transactions globally being tokenized, and significant progress in displacing cash in key markets. The company has also signed an agreement with Affect in Colombia to launch consumer debit cards and build acceptance with cash agents. Visa's stablecoin offerings have seen progress with interoperability and programmability capabilities, and new products like Tap to Everything, Tap to P2P, and a new version of Authorize.Net with AI capabilities are driving digitization and enhancing security.
Q:What is Visa's outlook for consumer payments and what innovations are driving growth?
A:Visa's outlook for consumer payments is positive as the company's products and solutions are enabling success in high value consumer payments use cases. Innovation such as Tap to Everything, multi-currency cards, flex credentials, account-to-account solutions, and a differentiated cardholder benefits platform are driving growth. Specifically, efforts in Tap to Everything are digitizing cash and fostering habituation, with growth in devices and global penetration rates. Tap to P2P offers enhanced security and real-time money movement, which is being launched in the US with Samsung Wallet.
Q:How is Visa progressing with its commercial solutions and value-added services?
A:Visa is making progress with its commercial solutions and value-added services by driving further penetration of these opportunities. This includes a 6% increase in constant dollars for commercial volume, 28% growth in Visa Direct transactions, and a 13% year-over-year increase in CMS revenue in constant dollars in Visa Commercial Solutions. The company is deepening relationships with clients to capture accounts receivable and accounts payable opportunities and utilizing product innovation such as embedded finance solutions to drive card adoption. There has been strong demand for innovative payment solutions in the B2B travel vertical, and Visa has expanded its agreement with Leon Leon Global to support end-to-end collections and payouts.
Q:What strategic partnerships and offerings are contributing to Visa's growth?
A:Strategic partnerships and offerings contributing to Visa's growth include deals with Jack Henry for Visa Direct, agreements with banks and financial institutions like Lloyd's and Talia for embedded Visa virtual cards, and support for B2B travel solutions. The company has also partnered with Decathlon, a sporting goods retailer, to provide payment services and fraud protection solutions. Additionally, the acquisition of Feature Space has enabled Visa to provide an enhanced holistic fraud protection solution called Adaptive Real-Time Individual Change Identification (ERIC Risk Hub). These partnerships and offerings help Visa to expand its money movement platform and grow its client relationships.
Q:What is the significance of the milestone of 10,000 merchants using Tink's pay by bank capability?
A:The milestone of over 10,000 merchants choosing Tink's pay by bank capability via more than 10 European PSP partnerships across their Vas portfolio indicates a significant achievement in market penetration and acceptance of the payment service.
Q:What are the foundational elements of Visa's as a service stack?
A:The foundational elements of Visa's as a service stack include global connectivity and the infrastructure built on Visa's network, a network of networks, access to credentials and acceptance, and a services architecture with specific capabilities that serve as building blocks for Visa's solutions.
Q:What were the notable aspects of Visa's business performance and the current environment as discussed at the event?
A:The notable aspects of Visa's business performance included strong financial results and resilience in consumer spending despite global economic uncertainty. Consumer spending remained strong with no signs of weakening in the US, although some categories like travel saw deceleration in growth. Cross-border volume growth was in line with Q4 2024 levels and above the pre-Covid trend.
Q:What is the company's approach to managing in the face of macroeconomic impacts?
A:The company's approach to managing in the face of macroeconomic impacts involves focusing on what they can control and being ready to make thoughtful adjustments when necessary, emphasizing their confidence in their business model, strategy, and employees.
Q:What were the growth rates for payments volume and cross-border volume in Q2, and what were the main drivers?
A:In Q2, global payments volume grew 8% in constant dollars, and cross-border volume excluding intra-European transactions grew 13% year over year. The growth was driven by resilient consumer spending, lower-than-expected incentives, and better-than-expected value-added services. Total process transactions grew 9%, and revenue grew 9% in nominal dollars and 11% in constant dollars.
Q:What is the geographic distribution of cross-border volume and its impact on revenue?
A:Cross-border volume is well distributed with no single region comprising more than 25% of total cross-border issued volume. The diversity by region and spend type results in similar distribution of associated revenues.
Q:What factors contributed to the moderation in growth from Q1 to Q2?
A:Factors contributing to the moderation in growth from Q1 to Q2 included the lapping of leap year, the timing of Ramadan and Easter, weaker currencies in certain countries, and softer Canada to US travel.
Q:What is the current status of the buyback program and what new authorization was issued?
A:At the end of March, Visa had $4.7 billion remaining in its buyback authorization and, in April, the board of directors authorized a new $30 billion multi-year buyback program.
Q:How does Visa view the potential impacts from tariffs and economic uncertainty?
A:Visa acknowledges the potential impacts from tariffs and recognizes the higher levels of economic uncertainty they entail. Despite this, their results have shown relative resilience in consumer spending, and they are managing the economic conditions by incorporating certain assumptions into their forecasts.
Q:What factors are contributing to the expected third quarter adjusted EPS growth?
A:The expected third quarter adjusted EPS growth is attributed to minimal benefit to net revenue growth, a one-half point contribution to operating expense growth, and a tax rate impact.
Q:What observations have been made regarding client decision making, and partnership arrangements?
A:The company's interaction with clients has been centered around providing data, information, tools, and solutions. While there could be discussions about partnership arrangements and deals in the future, these discussions have not been the primary focus of the company's time with clients.
Q:How is the company monitoring the impact of global events on its travel and cross-border business?
A:The company is closely monitoring the fluid situation and relying on facts to assess the impact of global events on its travel and cross-border business. It acknowledges the diversity of its business across regions, which provides some protection due to the smaller percentage that the US represents in terms of cross-border travel.
Q:What impact has the pull forward in spending had on the company's growth?
A:There was some evidence of pull-forward spending in electronics, mainly in the first part of April, but it was not a meaningful impact to the company's total growth.
Q:What assumptions have been made about the remainder of the year concerning cross-border business?
A:The company took the average of March and April for cross-border assumptions, which they believe accounts for the timing differences, currency weaknesses, and the slowdown in Canada to the US border. They extended this average through the remainder of the fiscal year, keeping in mind the diversification of their business and the smaller percentage of global travel volume that the US represents.
Q:How is the company anticipating the revenue impact of the mentioned factors on the cross-border business?
A:The company does not anticipate the revenue impact of the mentioned factors to be meaningful due to the diversification of their business and the relatively small percentage of global travel volume that the US represents in cross-border travel.
Q:What details can be provided about the performance and growth of the value-added services segment?
A:The company feels positive about the strategy, execution, and products, and has made progress in enhancing payments and enabling various types of payments beyond Visa. New products and initiatives such as the relaunched Authorize.net platform and the unified checkout experience are expected to positively impact the market and grow the company's share in small business payments.
Q:How does the company's business model contribute to its resilience and diversification?
A:The company's business model contributes to resilience and diversification through the diversity of its business components such as being exposed to various types of spending, having a larger debit business, more e-commerce spend, and being geographically diverse. Additionally, 65% of the business has a close correlation to Visa transactions, but there's also a good portion of the business independent of visa transactions, adding to the overall diversification.
Q:What are the specific factors that impacted Q2 incentive growth?
A:Q2 incentives grew 15%, coming in lower than anticipated primarily due to factors related to deal timing. However, the full-year and second half of the year expectations have been updated to show slightly higher growth due to anticipated client performance adjustments and early renewals. The volume of payment volumes impacted by renewals is expected to be the same as the start of the year, at 20%.
Q:What is the relationship between nominal cross-border volumes and nominal international revenue?
A:The relationship involves various factors such as foreign exchange volatility, client mix, pricing, and hedging. FX volatility affects revenue but not volumes, while the client mix has an impact on revenue yield. Pricing is expected to benefit the business more in the second half of the fiscal year compared to the first half. Additionally, hedging plays a role, with a gain recognized in Q2 due to hedging, which was lower than a year ago.
Q:What is the impact of tariffs on de minimis exemption in the US?
A:The company is not seeing a material impact from tariffs related to China and specifically the spend associated with the de minimis exemption. Tariffs are not a significant portion of their volumes, and they do not expect any material impact from them.
Q:What is the outlook for US volume growth and how should it be normalized for specific events?
A:The outlook for US volume growth is stable and steady. While there was a pull forward in spending ahead of tariffs, normalization should be made considering the overall stable environment and the fact that the 8% month-to-date growth includes benefits from the timing of Easter. The growth should not be over extrapolated from a few weeks of data, and the stability of the consumer remains resilient.
Q:What are the current macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer and business uncertainty?
A:The current macroeconomic conditions include increased uncertainty among consumers and businesses, as reflected in consumer confidence metrics. However, factors such as strong spending, robust employment, steady wage growth, moderate inflation, and healthy consumer balance sheets suggest underlying resilience in the economy.
Q:How is the company's investment strategy positioned in light of current geopolitical and economic conditions?
A:The company remains committed to its product and investment roadmap, confident in the opportunities across its growth levers. It continually assesses scenarios and is ready to adjust its investment profile and product pipeline based on emerging facts. The company's strong financial position allows for potential M&A opportunities to be explored.
Q:What levers can the company use to maintain revenue and protect margins in a rapidly changing macro environment?
A:To manage revenue and protect margins in a shifting macro environment, the company can leverage its diversified business model, resilient volumes even during downturns, and the resiliency of incentives which are largely variable. On the expense side, the company can flex its expenses and maintain a balance between short-term and long-term priorities while continuing to invest in key areas for future success.
Q:What is the company's view on the demand for stablecoin settlements and other stablecoin payments?
A:The company sees real potential in the stablecoin space, having built a team of experts and made significant investments. While $200 million in settlement flows is a milestone, it represents a small portion of the company's overall settlement volume. The company is optimistic about clearer regulations, both in the U.S. and internationally, and is continuing to推进 settlement work while exploring broader product opportunities and partnerships in the stablecoin space.
Q:How does the company navigate government nationalism risk while operating globally?
A:The company navigates government nationalism risk through regular engagement with governments and regulators worldwide, supported by a world-class team. Country managers are deeply involved with local governments, and the company uses its experience in operating in highly regulated markets to tailor strategies to the unique needs of clients and partners. It educates governments and stakeholders about the complexities of the global payments market and works collaboratively to address their needs while maintaining success in the country.

Visa, Inc.
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