百事可乐公司(PEP.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

The company highlights its focus on operational excellence, margin improvement, and investments in data, technology, and infrastructure. Key brands like Pepsi and Gatorade have seen market share gains, and the company is expanding its portfolio through organic growth and partnerships. The decision to recast segment results aims to optimize growth and improve operational efficiency. PepsiCo maintains a strategic approach to promotional activity and value actions, applying a nuanced pricing strategy. Organic sales growth guidance now includes high inflation economies, but this is not expected to significantly impact revenue or earnings. Strategic initiatives for Frito-Lay North America include value investments, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence. The reduction in full-year earnings outlook is attributed to new tariffs, heightened macro and consumer uncertainty, and subdued FLNA performance. International business remains a significant growth driver despite slowdowns in certain markets. Revenue management tactics, execution capability enhancement, and cost optimization are strategies to address FLNA's volume weakness. PepsiCo is also focusing on entry price points and smaller pack sizes to maintain brand frequency and consumer engagement. Legislative changes regarding ingredients are being proactively addressed, with a transition towards natural ingredients underway.

会议速览

PepsiCo's First Quarter Earnings Call Overview

A summary of PepsiCo's first quarter earnings question and answer session, highlighting the participation of the company's senior leadership, discussion of business plans, updated script, guidance, and outlook, along with a cautionary statement on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures.

Instructions for Participating in a Q&A Session

Participants are instructed to limit their input to one question and are guided on how to add their name to the Q&A roster using their touch tone phone.

Strategic Investments and Execution at Frido Amidst Consumer Pressure

The company is executing a multi-faceted strategy focusing on investments for improved price points, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence. Despite consumer environment pressures, returns are visible on recent value and price point investments.

Optimizing Dual Size Strategy and Portfolio Transformation for Business Growth

The company is witnessing significant unit growth through a dual size strategy in single serve products and by enhancing multi-pack assortments at lower price points, particularly benefiting convenience stores. This strategy, coupled with portfolio transformation offering consumers more options and improved operational excellence post-SAP implementation, aims to increase consumption frequency and retain customers in the category.

Impact of Tariffs on Full Year Earnings Outlook and Strategies for Long-term Offset

The reduced full year earnings outlook is primarily attributed to tariff impacts, with inquiries into specific areas of friction and long-term plans to counteract ongoing tariffs, alongside potential incremental investments affecting the outlook.

Adjustment of Guidance Due to Tariffs, Macro Uncertainty, and Subdued Performance

The guidance adjustment is driven by new tariffs, heightened macro and consumer uncertainty, and subdued business performance. Mitigation plans are being worked on, and while top line guidance remains within the initially projected band, the consumer confidence downturn and business turnaround plans are impacting the outlook.

International Business Growth and Market Trends

The company's international business is the largest growth engine, with expectations of mid to high single-digit growth in various markets despite consumer slowdowns in China and Mexico.

Strategies for Revitalizing Credo's North America Business Amidst Disappointing Volume Trends

The discussion highlights the need for strategic reinvestment and aggressive plans to turnaround the disappointing volume trends in Credo's North America business. Key strategies include enhancing value investment with intelligence, participating in all market sub-segments where consumers are driving consumption, and improving operational excellence through better data, systems, and leadership. The focus is on protecting the long-term health of the franchise while driving productivity and execution capability.

Strategies for Navigating Consumer Spending Pressures in North American Snack Market

The company observes complex consumer behavior due to disposable income challenges, with emphasis on entry price points and smaller pack sizes to maintain brand frequency. Strategies include adjusting offerings based on the month's time and utilizing data and tools for optimal revenue management, particularly in convenience stores, to address declining volumes and traffic.

Adapting to New Legislation on Ingredients and Managing Business Sensitivity to Market Trends

The company is leading the industry transformation by reducing sodium, sugar, and improving fats, with a significant portion of its portfolio already free of artificial colors. Major brands like Lays and Tostitos will be artificial color-free by the end of the year, aligning with the anticipated consumer demand for more natural ingredients. The transition towards natural colors is being orchestrated pragmatically to avoid unnecessary panic or chaos, aiming to provide consumers with natural color options within a few years.

Potential Impact of Legislative Changes on Business Operations

Discussions in various states may lead to restrictions on certain business categories, but the overall effect on the company is expected to be limited. The exact implications depend on how future legislation is implemented, with many details still uncertain.

International Expansion and Domestic Growth Strategies for Long-Term Success

The discussion highlights the company's strategy to leverage international growth as a key driver for long-term success, while also emphasizing the continued growth potential in the US market through portfolio evolution, better execution, and tapping into new channels. The company is investing in international capacity, talent, and brand strategies, recognizing the accretive nature of international markets. However, the CEO disagrees with the notion that the US business cannot grow faster, pointing to opportunities for growth through an integrated operating model, direct-to-consumer models, and a more relevant portfolio and channel presence.

Impact of Tariffs, Macro Uncertainty, and International Momentum on Revenue Guidance

The discussion focuses on the factors affecting the company's revenue outlook, including the influence of tariffs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the strength of international markets, which offset some of the challenges faced in North America. The company's guidance is based on current observations and scenarios, with potential for upside if certain external pressures, like tariffs, are relieved.

Portfolio Transformation and Adaptation to GLP 1 Oral Medications Market Launch

The company discusses adapting its portfolio to cater to dietary preferences influenced by the upcoming GLP 1 oral medications, focusing on protein, fiber, hydration, portion control, and innovation in product offerings.

PepsiCo's Beverage Business Strategy and Acquisitions

The company discusses its successful execution of strategies to improve margins and brand performance in the North American beverage sector, highlighting the acquisition of Poppi as a strategic move pending regulatory approval. They express optimism about brand growth, particularly in carbonated soft drinks and sports drinks, and outline plans for brand relaunches and portfolio expansions.

Update on Energy Drinks Portfolio and Potential Expansion with Celsius

The speaker discusses the positive outlook on the energy drink sector, noting sequential improvements and the strong performance of Celsius. They mention ongoing conversations with Celsius regarding potential distribution partnerships following Celsius's recent brand acquisition.

PepsiCo's Strategic Approach to Enhancing North American Beverage Business and Brand Growth

The company highlights its focus on operational excellence, margin improvement, and strategic investments in brands like Pepsi and Gatorade to gain market share and adapt to consumer trends. Emphasizing long-term capabilities development, portfolio expansion through partnerships, and targeted innovations, the strategy aims for sustained growth in the North American beverage market.

PepsiCo Recasts Segment Results for Strategic Growth and Operational Efficiency

The decision to recast segment results aims to enhance focus and growth potential in various parts of the business, including beverages, foods, and international operations. This move underscores a strategic shift to maximize long-term growth, particularly in the international market, by providing clearer separation between the food and beverage operating models. Additionally, it highlights integration opportunities in North America for more efficient business operations and potential growth through shared infrastructure and supply chain optimizations.

Strategic Pricing and Value Differentiation in the Snack Industry

The speaker discusses the strategic approach to pricing in areas of high and low consumer differentiation, emphasizing the importance of understanding product value and adjusting pricing strategies accordingly for profitability and growth.

Inclusion of High Inflation Economies in Organic Sales Growth Guidance

The company has started including high inflation economies in its organic sales growth guidance to align with peers, though this change is not expected to significantly impact revenue or earnings.

Concluding Remarks and Expressions of Gratitude in a PepsiCo Investor Call

The speaker thanks participants for their trust and investment in PepsiCo, marking the end of the presentation and inviting attendees to disconnect and enjoy their day.

要点回答

Q：How is PepsiCo's strategy for Frigo contributing to its growth?

A：PepsiCo is executing strategies such as improved pricing and focusing on the sizable away-home opportunity, which has led to the start of seeing returns on investments in value and new price points. The dual size strategy in single serve has seen meaningful improvement in units, especially when paired with meal deals in convenience stores. The company is also seeing growth in multi-packs and has introduced a lower-priced 10 count assortment that is delivering good returns.

Q：What are the components of PepsiCo's strategic playbook for the current period?

A：PepsiCo's strategic playbook consists of three main legs: generating a good return on invested value, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence in execution and cost.

Q：What is PepsiCo doing to improve operational excellence and portfolio transformation?

A：To improve operational excellence, PepsiCo is right-sizing costs, improving field rates, and enhancing execution in the market. As for portfolio transformation, the company is offering consumers more options with more permissibility and functionality in snacks. The recent completion of an SAP implementation is expected to improve service levels and provide better execution visibility in the coming months.

Q：Why has the full-year earnings outlook been reduced despite stable organic growth expectations?

A：The reduction in the full-year earnings outlook is primarily due to new tariffs and pockets of tariff friction, heightened macro and consumer uncertainty as indicated by a decline in the consumer confidence index, and weaker performance from the Frigo division. The company has factored in known tariffs and has mitigation plans in place, but the economic conditions and business performance are below previous expectations.

Q：What factors are contributing to the challenges in the international business?

A：The challenges in the international business are attributed to new tariffs and tariff friction, increased macroeconomic and consumer uncertainty reflected in a drop in the consumer confidence index, and the subdued performance of the Frigo division. The company has plans to improve the Frigo business, but it will take some time to materialize.

Q：What is the impact of the tariffs on PepsiCo's business?

A：Tariffs are having a significant impact on the business by introducing new challenges and pockets of friction that were not present in the initial guidance. The company has incorporated known tariffs and is working on mitigation plans, which vary in their ability to be executed quickly.

Q：How is the international business expected to perform in the remainder of the year?

A：The international business is expected to continue the positive trends seen in the quarter and even accelerate, based on the performance in March. The business has been a key growth engine for the company and is anticipated to drive growth throughout the remainder of the year.

Q：Which markets are performing well and contributing to international business growth?

A：The markets performing well and contributing to international business growth are Europe, India, and Brazil.

Q：What is the magnitude and durability of the volume decline in the North American business?

A：The volume decline in the North American business is significant and persistent, hence the focus on fixing the business and considering more substantial reinvestment in the future.

Q：What steps are being taken to reinvest in the business without compromising its long-term health?

A：To reinvest in the business without compromising its long-term health, the company is focusing on protecting the franchise's value by investing productively, improving revenue management, stepping up execution capability, and pursuing cost efficiencies.

Q：What is the company's approach to participating in different market segments?

A：The company's approach to participating in different market segments involves focusing on areas where consumers are actively engaged, as well as those where they are driving consumption, with both organic and acquisition strategies.

Q：How is operational excellence impacting the business?

A：Operational excellence is improving due to better data, systems, and increased stability, leading to a recovery from the disruptions caused by Covid.

Q：Are the declines in North American volumes more pronounced in higher price points or larger packs?

A：The revenue management is becoming more complex as consumers are more challenged with their disposable income, with a focus on absolute value now being emphasized, resulting in less or smaller declines in small packs.

Q：How does the company react to the changing behaviors of consumers over the month?

A：The company observes different consumer behaviors at the beginning and end of the month, with consumers seeking value per kilo or per unit accordingly, and the company is leveraging data to make informed decisions.

Q：How is the company addressing the challenges faced by convenience stores and protecting its single serve performance?

A：The company is helping its partners in the convenience store business by offering meal deals and other specific offers to drive traffic and sales, thereby supporting its single serve performance.

Q：How is the business dealing with new立法 regarding ingredients and colors, and what is the potential impact on costs and exposure?

A：The business is facing challenges with new legislation on ingredients and colors, which may lead to incremental costs. The exact impact on the business's outlook and exposure to these changes is not detailed in the provided text.

Q：What is the company's strategy regarding the use of artificial colors in their products?

A：The company is in the process of transitioning their portfolio to use natural colors or provide natural color options. Major brands like Lays and Tostitos are expected to be free of artificial colors by the end of the year. This transition is being done in a pragmatic and orchestrated way to avoid unnecessary panic or chaos, with the goal to migrate the entire portfolio into natural colors or provide consumers with the option to choose.

Q：What potential effects could upcoming legislation regarding Snap have on the business?

A：There are ongoing discussions and some states are considering legislation that could potentially expose certain categories to restrictions, which may have a limited impact on the business as calculated so far. However, the full impact is uncertain due to many unknowns regarding how the eventual legislation will be implemented.

Q：How does the company expect its international business to contribute to future growth?

A：The company expects its international business to continue being a key driver of growth and profitability for the foreseeable future. The international business is already accretive to the company and is showing high growth potential in both beverages and snacks and foods in many markets. The company plans to continue investing in capacity, talent, go-to-market strategies, and portfolio and brand development.

Q：What is the company's view on the potential for the US business to grow?

A：The company believes that the US business has significant growth opportunities and can continue to grow at a very good rate. They see the US as a source of funding for the rest of the world and a growth opportunity for the company. The US business will be focused on better execution, portfolio evolution, new channel penetration, and leveraging an integrated operating model to drive growth across various service models, including direct to consumer and direct to business.

Q：How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty on their revenue outlook?

A：The company has based its guidance on current estimates and has considered various scenarios. The momentum in international sales is a key underpinning of the guidance, and the company has taken into account the low single-digit impact of tariffs. They have not provided a detailed analysis of potential changes but have factored in their understanding of current events into the guidance provided.

Q：What are the driving factors for increased consumption in the protein, fiber, and hydration spaces?

A：The driving factors for increased consumption in the protein, fiber, and hydration spaces are the dietary choices made by GLP consumers who are focusing on these aspects and incorporating them into their daily choices.

Q：How are GLP consumers impacting the brands' relevance in their portfolios?

A：GLP consumers maintain brands in their repertoires by choosing smaller portion sizes and opting for multipacks or other options provided by the brands, which keeps the brands relevant while still making them a part of the consumers' choices.

Q：What is the rationale behind the acquisition of Poppy, and what are the plans for the brand?

A：The acquisition of Poppy was a strategic move to enhance the beverage business in North America, and plans for the brand include integrating it into the business after regulatory approval.

Q：What factors are contributing to the improvement in the beverage business's margin?

A：The factors contributing to the improvement in the beverage business's margin include improved operational excellence and a focus on profitable growth, which has been a key pillar of the strategy.

Q：How is the Pepsi brand performing and what is the company's outlook on its future?

A：The Pepsi brand is performing well, with gains in market share and stronger results in the carbonated soft drinks segment, particularly due to its focus on 0 sugar and brand activation. The company is optimistic about the brand's future and its multi-pronged strategy is starting to deliver.

Q：What is the company's position on the partnership with Celsius and its willingness to bring new brands into its distribution network?

A：The company feels good about the energy category and the partnership with Celsius. Discussions are ongoing regarding Celsius's new brand acquisition, but a decision on integration into the company's distribution network has not been made as it is still too early.

Q：What are the strategies for PepsiCo's Gatorade and other beverage brands mentioned?

A：PepsiCo is focusing on Gatorade, particularly Gatorade 0 0, which has performed well and is a significant part of the business. They are investing in powders and tablets as consumers move towards these products. Additionally, they are looking at opportunities with brands like Celsius and partnerships with Starbucks for coffee and unilife for tea, driven by a belief in the strategic intentions of their portfolio and consumer trends.

Q：How is PepsiCo's approach to its portfolio and brand development?

A：PepsiCo is pursuing both organic and inorganic growth strategies for its portfolio, including partnerships, and aims to be strategic about where they position their brands based on consumer trends. They acknowledge that this is not an overnight process but a long-term, year-after-year commitment. The company is building capabilities and talent and feels optimistic about the business's long-term prospects.

Q：What was the rationale behind recasting segment results?

A：PepsiCo recast segment results to provide more focus in different parts of the business, such as beverages, stores, foods, and its operating model. This reorganization helps to separate the fobo business international from the company-owned businesses that control manufacturing to selling, allowing for a clearer focus on value provided to partners and infrastructure. It's designed to position the company well for long-term growth, particularly internationally, and to integrate North American operations for future growth.

Q：What is PepsiCo's strategy for its North American and international businesses?

A：PepsiCo is enhancing integration in North America for more efficient operations and future growth, especially by sharing common infrastructure and supply chain models for various channels. Internationally, the company is focusing on the fobo business and applying technology and services to its operating units. Both regions are being managed separately, with North America being more operational and the international segment being both reporting and operational.

Q：How is PepsiCo approaching value in its products and promotional activities?

A：PepsiCo aims to be more intentional in revenue management in areas with less consumer differentiation. The strategic intent is to capture more value from consumers by leveraging product uniqueness in more differentiated areas. The company is becoming more nuanced in understanding value and how pricing should reflect that in different locations and brands.

Q：What is PepsiCo's stance on including high inflation economies in sales growth guidance?

A：PepsiCo has included the impact of high inflation economies in their organic sales growth guidance to ensure comparability with peers. However, it is not a significant contributor to revenue generation for the year and was not material in the first quarter. The impact on earnings is also immaterial, according to the company.

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