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默沙东集团(MRK.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Merck emphasizes its commitment to increasing dividends, prioritizing business development, and investing in its growth drivers and pipeline. Significant progress includes clinical and regulatory milestones, a license agreement for a cardiovascular disease treatment, and global regulatory approvals for Cavasin. The company also discusses its financial performance, supply chain strategy, and plans to mitigate tariff impacts.
会议速览
Merck & Co. Inc. Q1 Earnings Conference Call
Merck & Co. Inc. conducts its first quarter earnings conference call, with the CEO, CFO, and President of Research Labs addressing participants. The call covers GAAP vs. non-GAAP results, forward-looking statements, and risks associated with the company's financial projections.
Pharmaceutical Company's Growth and Innovation Progress
The company has made significant progress in the year's beginning, with increased contributions from new medicines and vaccines and ongoing pipeline advancement. Key focuses include addressing global health challenges, enhancing US manufacturing, and managing potential tariff impacts, while maintaining full-year revenue and EPS guidance. Recent research efforts highlight promising data for treating pulmonary arterial hypertension and HIV, reinforcing the company's position for long-term leadership in oncology and HIV treatments.
Biopharmaceutical Innovation and Pipeline Expansion
The company has significantly expanded its late phase pipeline through internal advancements and strategic business developments, focusing on areas with unmet needs such as oncology, cardiometabolic, ophthalmology, and immunology. With numerous promising potential new growth drivers expected to hit the market, the pipeline includes scientifically advanced modalities and molecules with foundational multi-nation potential. The commitment to early research and development ensures a robust slate of upcoming data readouts, presentations, filings, and approvals, positioning the company to navigate through the Corona Loe period and continue delivering breakthrough therapies and value creation.
First Quarter Business Performance and Strategic Investment Outlook
The company's first quarter results met expectations, with total revenues impacted by declines in specific markets but driven by strong global demand for innovative products, particularly in oncology and animal health. Notable growth was seen in Keytruda sales, despite challenges in China, and the animal health sector showed robust growth across all species.
Financial Review and Guidance Update for a Pharmaceutical Company
The company reported an increase in gross margin due to favorable product mix and a decrease in operating expenses. Guidance for full year revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other expense, tax rate, and EPS were provided, with adjustments for foreign exchange impacts and one-time charges. The company highlighted growth drivers including a robust pipeline and key products, while also noting moderating sales for certain products post-catch-up vaccination programs. Capital allocation priorities include investments for growth, dividends, and share repurchases, with a focus on maximizing potential opportunities and business development.
Updates on Cardiometabolic Disease Program: WRVR's Efficacy in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension
The first quarter saw significant progress in clinical and regulatory milestones, particularly in cardiometabolic disease. WRVR, the only active signaling inhibitor for pulmonary arterial hypertension, demonstrated a 76% risk reduction in major outcomes in the Phase III Zenith trial. Results were published in the New England Journal of Medicine, highlighting WRVR's potential to alter the disease trajectory for PAH patients. The Phase II Hyperion study was stopped early due to loss of clinical equipoise, with data expected later this year.
Update on Clinical Programs, Regulatory Approvals, and Pipeline Progress
The update covers ongoing clinical studies, including the long-term extension study Soteria, the Phase II Light Ray study for an auto-injector option, and the completion of recruitment for the Phase II KIN study on pulmonary hypertension. The company has secured exclusive rights to HRS5, an investigational small molecule for treating elevated levels of LP(a), and is planning a global clinical development program for cardiometabolic diseases. Recent regulatory approvals include cavasin for the prevention of invasive disease and pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumonia in adults in Europe, and Garda So II for preventing certain HBV-related cancers and diseases in males aged 16 to 26 in China. Detailed results from Phase II trials evaluating a once-daily oral fixed-dose combination for HIV were presented, showing non-inferiority to comparator antiretroviral therapies. In oncology, a pivotal Phase II trial evaluating a subcutaneous fixed-dose combination of pembrolizumab and verri hyriidae alpha with chemotherapy met its dual primary endpoints, demonstrating non-inferior pharmacokinetics and consistent efficacy and safety. The FDA granted priority review for intruda as part of a peri-operative treatment regimen for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The company received the first conditional European Commission approval for Well AEG for treating adults with von Hippo lindo disease. Near-term milestones include upcoming PDUFA dates for oncology and RSV, anticipated results from Phase II studies in the cardiometabolic space, and filings for HIV treatments.
Merck's Strategies to Mitigate Potential Tariff Impacts
The company has been rebalancing its supply chain strategy since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, aiming to have regional manufacturing for regional demand. It plans to spend billions of dollars to optimize its supply chain, including repositioning manufacturing, bringing on external manufacturing, and building internal manufacturing for long-term stability. Inventory management is also highlighted as a key tactic to mitigate short-term impacts of potential sector-specific tariffs.
Investor Concerns Over Keytruda's Patent Expiry and Company's Long-term Guidance
An investor expresses concerns about the impact of Keytruda's patent expiry on the company's future, noting the stock's low valuation. The company highlights its confidence in the long-term outlook due to a strong pipeline of new products with blockbuster potential, but does not plan to provide specific line-by-line guidance currently.
FDA's Current Stance and Ongoing Communications on Vaccine Programs
The FDA is maintaining its schedule for programs with imminent PDUFA dates, including active dialogues on potential label changes and near-term filings, despite uncertainty regarding the impact of personnel transitions.
Navigating Business Development and Addressing Price Differential in Pharmaceutical Industry
The speaker discusses the company's ongoing focus on business development despite macroeconomic volatility, noting the challenge of aligning sellers' expectations with market realities. They express confidence in progressing with deals and address the issue of price differentials between the U.S. and other markets for innovative medicines, advocating for PBM reform, fair value from foreign governments, and collaboration with the administration to protect U.S. innovation and access.
Merck Addresses Gardasil Dosing Regimen and Manufacturing Strategies Amidst US Tariff Concerns
The discussion highlights Merck's confidence in Gardasil's current dosing regimen and efficacy, addressing potential changes in CDC recommendations. Merck also outlines its manufacturing strategies to mitigate long-term tariff impacts, emphasizing preparedness for Keytruda and new products through inventory management and securing US-based manufacturing capabilities.
Inquiries on US Investment Opportunities and PD 1 VEGF Data Impact on LM 2909 Development
An inquiry discusses the potential for increased US CapEx pending tax reform and explores whether recent PD 1 VEGF data suggests accelerating resources for LM 2909's development.
Strategic Investment Growth and Portfolio Advancements in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing
The company anticipates surpassing script billion in investments over the next few years, driven by firm decisions and the return of manufacturing. Tax environment considerations won't deter investment plans. Significant emphasis is placed on the potential of PD 1 VEGF in demonstrating OS benefits, with the company holding a competitive edge due to clinical expertise and extensive data. The impact of potential competitors is expected to be minimal, particularly post the Loe of Keytruda, with efforts focused on converting patients to earlier stage settings. The long-term outlook for the company is positive, with substantial opportunities seen despite minimal risks.
Update on Gardasil Global Growth and Market Expectations
Growth in Gardasil sales globally has slowed, notably due to the end of a successful catch-up cohort program in Japan. China is expected to contribute a headwind to sales this year.
Assessment of Product Shipping to China and Expectations for Global Growth
The company will reassess at the year's midpoint whether to ship more product to China, with current dynamics suggesting unlikely further shipments. This scenario is factored into the guidance. Strong double-digit growth is expected outside China, with a focus on maximizing opportunities globally and protecting lives from HPV-related cancers.
Impact of Adjusting HPV Vaccination Recommendation on Sales and Doctor Checks
The potential adjustment of the HPV vaccination recommendation from ages 11 to 12 to ages 9 to 12, expected to be voted on in June, is viewed as a positive development. This change is important because it could lead to higher completion rates of the vaccination schedule, especially starting at age 9, and it aligns with a time when there are fewer other vaccinations, making it easier for families to prioritize. While the adjustment is significant, it's already approved for the younger age cohort, and vaccinations are occurring; the official recommendation will reinforce this practice.
Strategies for Navigating Potential Tariffs and Intellectual Property Location Queries
The discussion revolves around inquiries concerning the potential impact of tariffs on a company's operations and the location of intellectual property for a specific product. The speaker addresses concerns about inventory management, manufacturing repositioning, and the unwillingness to disclose the IP location due to proprietary reasons, emphasizing preparedness for various scenarios.
Innovative Strategies Behind Recent Acquisitions and Pipeline Development in Pharmaceutical Industry
The discussion highlights the strategic acquisition of assets from China, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and innovative potential of these moves. Despite initial perceptions, the company underscores its commitment to being a front-runner in innovative drug development, referencing specific acquisitions and pipeline molecules that showcase their ambition to lead in markets such as wet AMD and diabetic macular edema, as well as in the development of first-to-market and most effective PCSK9 inhibitors.
Strategic Approach to Portfolio Diversification and Growth in Therapeutic Areas
The speaker emphasizes a balanced portfolio strategy, highlighting successes and the pursuit of being best in class in various strategies. They stress considering the entire portfolio beyond recent deals, indicating a focus on growth and addressing unmet needs in therapeutic areas like obesity. The approach involves exploring a full spectrum of opportunities to position the company for future waves of innovation and leadership.
要点回答
Q:What are the key topics discussed during the conference call?
A:The key topics discussed during the conference call include the company's progress for the year, focus on near-term opportunities and innovation, supply chain strategy, recent investments in US manufacturing, first quarter results, revenue growth, and the advancement of research and development.
Q:What investments have been made in US manufacturing by Merck, and what are the implications?
A:Since 2018, Merck has invested $12 billion in US manufacturing and has committed to an additional $9 billion for projects through 2028. These investments are leading to more products for US patients being manufactured in the USA and more opportunities for export.
Q:What are the significant milestones in the company's research and development?
A:Significant milestones in research and development include the presentation of phase II data for wraae in additional patient populations, advancement in the HIV pipeline with data from Phase II trials of zilant, and new clinical trials and regulatory submissions in oncology.
Q:What are the components of the company's late phase pipeline, and what is their potential value?
A:The late phase pipeline comprises internally discovered compounds and compounds acquired through business development transactions, with potential commercial opportunities of over $12 billion by mid-decade. Initial launches from this pipeline include wrair and cap vax.
Q:What is the company's strategic approach to business development?
A:The company's strategic approach to business development includes assessing opportunities with urgency to drive near and long-term growth and value creation. Science and value-driven business development are top priorities.
Q:How do the company's first quarter results reflect on the global demand for its innovative portfolio?
A:The company's first quarter results reflect robust global demand for its innovative portfolio, with total company revenues of $8.8 billion, and growth primarily driven by new products wrair and cap vax, as well as strength in oncology and animal health.
Q:What was the change in other expense and the tax rate?
A:Other expense was $75 million, and the tax rate of Ed benefited from certain discrete items.
Q:What is the non-GAAP guidance for full year revenue and other financial assumptions?
A:The non-GAAP full year revenue guidance is between $60.1 billion and $65.6 billion, representing growth excluding a negative impact from foreign exchange. The gross margin assumption is now approximately Ed, including costs related to tariffs. Operating expenses are assumed to be between $9.2 and $9.3 billion. There's also an expectation of a script million dollar payment related to a license agreement with Hongre Phar and a Hood million dollar tech transfer payment with Lenovo.
Q:What items should be considered when evaluating the guidance and how will the HPV catch up vaccination program affect future sales?
A:Global Garda fill growth is expected to slow due to the success of the HPV catch up vaccination program in Japan, with future sales predominantly reflecting the primary age cohort. For Keytruda, the timing of wholesaler purchasing negatively impacted sales by approximately $2 million in the first quarter and is expected to positively impact sales by roughly the same amount in the third quarter.
Q:What is the updated strategy for capital allocation and investment priorities?
A:The company is moving toward a more diversified portfolio of growth drivers by investing with discipline and transforming the business to drive continuous productivity. They intend to communicate more about these efforts later in the year, remain committed to the dividend for growth, and continue prioritizing investments in the business for near and long-term growth and shareholder returns.
Q:What is the approach to business development and share repurchases?
A:Business development remains an important priority with ongoing active evaluation for additional value-creating transactions. Share repurchases have been increased to approximately script script billion dollars, similar to the full year amount in Ed, and the pace is expected to continue at this level.
Q:What are the updates on clinical programs in various disease areas?
A:In the field of cardiometabolic disease, the clinical program includes the ongoing long-term extension study Soteria and a phase II light ray study to support the development of an auto injector. A phase II K-1 study exploring pulmonary hypertension in heart disease is on track for completion later this year. In HIV, pivotal Phase II trials showed non-inferiority to comparator antiretrovirals. The FDA set a date for a priority review of intruda as part of a peri-operative treatment regimen for patients with stage I or IIa-receptable locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The company also received a first conditional European Commission approval for well AEG for the treatment of adults with von Hippo lindo disease.
Q:What are the upcoming milestones for Merck in oncology and other therapeutic areas?
A:Upcoming milestones for Merck include PDUFA dates for Keynote Xi in oncology, results from phase I/II registration enabling studies of an oral PCSK1 inhibitor candidate, and the completion of the phase II Cadence study on pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease. There are also plans to file for a dereling and avantair regimen in HIV and report phase II trial results for a novel NRTTA candidate, Mk-UL, for pre-exposure prophylaxis.
Q:How is Merck handling the challenges of tariffs and changing supply chain dynamics?
A:Merck has been actively rebalancing its supply chain, beginning with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, to ensure US, Europe, and Asia production for US, Europe, and Asia markets, respectively. They have invested significantly in this area, with plans to spend an additional script plus billion dollars, and are well-positioned with inventory to mitigate any short-term effects. For the medium to long term, they are repositioning manufacturing, changing plant priorities, bringing in external manufacturing, and planning internal manufacturing growth.
Q:What is Merck's strategy for the long-term impact of potential changes in Keytruda's patent protection?
A:While Merck does not typically use pricing as a strategy for tariffs, they are focused on optimizing the supply chain and are well aligned with the administration's goals. The company is confident in its long-term prospects, emphasizing the strength of its pipeline with over 15 new products in development, many with blockbuster potential, and looking at early to mid-$10 billion potential.
Q:What is the outlook for FDA processes and vaccine-related developments?
A:Merck has maintained an active dialogue with the FDA on near-term filings and does not see any shifts in timelines for imminent PDUFA dates. However, the long-term impact of FDA personnel transitions remains to be seen. The company has not experienced any delays in timelines for these critical filings.
Q:How is the macro environment influencing business development efforts?
A:Despite the macro volatility and uncertainty, Merck's focus on business development remains unchanged, seeking to identify new science-based opportunities to build on the pipeline. The complexity of the current environment is making it more challenging to finalize deals, but the company is actively considering the impact of this environment on value assessments while continuing to pursue aggressive deal-making.
Q:What is the sentiment among sellers in the market regarding potential deal sizes?
A:Merck observes a general dissatisfaction among sellers regarding market realities and their expectations for value. There is a gap between these expectations and the current market conditions, which Merck is working to address as it moves forward with potential deals.
Q:What is Merck's stance on international reference pricing and potential changes in U.S. pricing?
A:Merck recognizes the need to address the significant price differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world for innovative medicines. They are open to working with the administration on this issue, highlighting PBM reform as an important step to reduce U.S. prices. Additionally, they are ready to engage in discussions on potential changes in U.S. pricing mechanisms.
Q:What is the company's stance on foreign governments valuing innovation and providing access to their patients?
A:The company believes that foreign governments should recognize the fair value of the innovation brought by companies and ensure access to medicines for their patients. This includes pricing that rewards the risk taken in innovation. The company and industry peers are working to promote this globally.
Q:What are the company's views on the potential for a single-dose Gardasil and the ability to adjust prices based on such a development?
A:The company expressed confidence in the safety and efficacy of Gardasil 9 with its current dosing regimen. They emphasized FDA guidance on what would be required for reduced dosing or a single dose, including efficacy against disease endpoints, data in both genders, statistical significance, and long-term protection. They are hopeful for a robust public discussion on the disparity between FDA requirements and ACIP proposals.
Q:What is the company's strategy regarding the manufacturing and long-term tariff mitigation efforts, especially concerning legacy products like Keytruda?
A:The company is focused on both new products and has an inventory in the U.S. to protect them through 2025. They are preparing for long-term efforts by securing additional manufacturing through contract manufacturers and internal resources. Tariffs' specific implications depend on their form but believe they are well-positioned to manage both inventory and manufacturing.
Q:What is the impact of recent PD-1 VEGF data on resource allocation and development of LM2909?
A:The company has disclosed a significant investment and plans to continue expanding with more than $4 billion since 2022. They acknowledge the advancements in the field but prefer to make investment decisions based on firm decisions and clinical expertise. The company is assessing the impact of potential OS benefits and potential for combination therapies, looking at both their data and field advancements.
Q:What new information emerged since the last quarter that impacted Gardasil's growth, and how does the company view the potential impact of the pandemic in China?
A:Gardasil's growth slowed globally, particularly due to effective execution by Japan in a catch-up cohort program. Growth in China is expected to be a headwind due to current dynamics, with an unlikely prospect of further product shipment this year. Despite this, the company expects strong global growth outside China, with the potential to meet the script billion dollar target, as they remain focused on maximizing opportunities globally.
Q:What could be the impact of extending the vaccine recommendation to adolescents and young adults?
A:Extending the vaccine recommendation to adolescents and young adults could be a positive development as it may lead to more people completing the vaccination schedule, especially since there are fewer other vaccines happening in this age group. This time frame could allow families to prioritize and focus on vaccinations more effectively.
Q:Is the new vaccine recommendation already approved in the targeted age group?
A:Yes, the new vaccine recommendation is already approved in the targeted age group, and vaccinations are already happening.
Q:Why is there no disclosure of where the IP for Key 2 to Sub Q is located?
A:There is no disclosure of where the IP for Key 2 to Sub Q is located for proprietary reasons.
Q:What is the company's position regarding potential tariffs?
A:The company does not want to speculate on potential tariffs as it needs to see the language from the administration. However, the company has taken steps in inventory management and repositioning manufacturing for the short and medium to long term, respectively.
Q:Why does the acquisition strategy seem to focus on non-innovative assets?
A:The acquisition strategy does not solely focus on non-innovative assets. It includes acquisitions like accelerant purchase and Winriver-velipoja that bring a front-leading molecule, as well as companies like Ibio in relation to wet AMD and diabetic macular edema. The strategy is to ensure a coordinated pipeline of both internal and external innovations that fuse into final products.
Q:How does the company view its role in the market with respect to innovation and competition?
A:The company aims to be first or best in class, not necessarily always being the first but ensuring it is the best in class. The company's strategy involves looking at the total portfolio and not just recent deals. It also plans to continue a range of opportunities that cover the full spectrum of potential growth areas, including areas with unmet need such as obesity, where there could be a 'next wave' of therapies.
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