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诺基亚公司(NOK.US)2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Nokia discusses addressing customer project costs, winning AI data center deals, managing tariff impacts, and growth strategies focusing on R&D and core areas. The company reports mixed financial results, strong order growth, and strategic moves like the Infinera acquisition to accelerate innovation and access hyperscale customers.
会议速览
Nokia's First Quarter Earnings Call Overview
The call begins with a disclaimer about forward-looking statements and identifies risks affecting future business and financial performance. The presentation discusses growth rates on a constant currency and portfolio basis, and margins based on comparable reporting. The agenda includes key messages from the quarter and a review of financial performance.
Nokia's New Leadership: Initial Observations and Future Plans
The new leader of Nokia shares initial observations after three weeks, emphasizing the company's strong heritage in connectivity and outlining plans for presenting a complete value creation vision in November.
Nokia's Resilient Market Performance and Strategic Focus
Despite a year-over-year net sales decline, Nokia experienced solid order growth and market recovery, with notable expansions in network infrastructure and cloud services. The company emphasizes its strong product portfolio, trusted partnership with customers, and potential growth in hyperscale, enterprise, and defense markets, while addressing challenges including global trade impacts and capital allocation strategies.
Infinera Acquisition and Financial Performance Update
The acquisition of Infinera is expected to boost product innovation, enhance access to hyperscale customers, and complement existing customer, geographic, and technology profiles. Despite a decline in Q4 net sales, there was strong growth in network infrastructure and cloud services, offsetting challenges in mobile networks and Nokia technologies. The company remains confident in achieving synergy targets and generated significant free cash flow.
Mobile Networks Sales Growth and Regional Performance Update
Net sales in mobile networks have grown, particularly in North America and India, with a decline in EMEA. Gross margin decreased due to a one-off contract settlement. Cloud and Network Services saw a strong start to the year with expanded margins. Nokia Technologies' net sales declined due to a challenging comparison with the previous year but saw an increase in the annual net sales run rate. Cash performance was strong in the quarter, with sizable free cash flow generation.
Nokia Secures Multi-Year Contract Extension with T-Mobile and Expands Network Infrastructure in High-Growth Geographies
The company announces a significant, multi-year contract extension with T-Mobile, emphasizing the partnership's role in shaping the future of mobile connectivity in the US. Additionally, it highlights a growing backlog in the network infrastructure segment, attributing this to strategic acquisitions and the increasing demands of AI and data center builds, particularly in high-growth geographies and with hyperscale customers.
Analysis of Incra's Reported Loss and Infinera's Financial Performance
Despite a reported loss of $100 million, which raised questions about revenue and margin expectations, it was clarified that the loss pertains to Q1 and includes only March's results post-acquisition. Infinera, including stock-based compensation, was loss-making in the previous year, offering context for the reported figures.
Synergies and Scale in Optical Acquisitions
The acquisition of Infinera alongside Nokia brings significant scale, expected to unlock $200 million in synergies. Despite Infinera not substantially impacting current operating profit, it's anticipated to accelerate performance in 2025.
One-time Contract Settlement and Mobile Network Project Issues
A significant one-time contract settlement of 120 million was taken due to a customer-specific project related to stabilizing and enhancing portfolio competitiveness. The issue predates recent portfolio improvements and was a result of underestimating the total cost to remediate a problem. The company assured that this is a one-time issue specific to this project and that measures are being taken to improve operational visibility and prevent similar occurrences.
Strategies for Winning Large AI Data Center Deals
The discussion highlights the importance of portfolio orientation, scale, bandwidth, reliability, and performance in winning large AI data center deals. The speaker emphasizes the relevance of their solutions to hyperscale customers due to the increasing demands driven by AI and cloud technologies. They also mention aggressive investment in opportunities, the necessity of collaboration and co-development, and the longer cycle for revenue growth in this sector. The acquisition of Infinera is cited as a strategic move to leverage learnings and investments in the optical side for IP networks.
Nokia's Strategy Amid Licensing Deals and Tariff Impacts
The speaker discusses the positive impact of recent licensing deals, such as the Amazon agreement, on Nokia's non-smartphone IP sales. They also address the cost impact of tariffs, emphasizing the focus on short-term mitigation strategies and potential long-term adjustments to their manufacturing network, including utilizing existing US facilities.
Divisional Performance and Growth Strategies Update
The company reiterates its strong growth outlook for network infrastructure, particularly in the script and IP sides, with investments targeting hyperscaler and data center segments. Despite headwinds in At and T, mobile networks are expected to develop stably. Cloud and network services show good growth momentum, especially on the core side, with an operating profit assumption of around one point ed billion for technology.
Nokia's Impressive Technology Base and Employee Passion Highlighted by New Executive
The new executive was pleasantly surprised by Nokia's advanced technology base, including ongoing research at Nokia Bell Labs, and the passion and team mindset of the employees towards evolving the business.
Strategic Focus on Growth and Efficiency in R&D and Go-to-Market Investments
The company aims to drive efficiencies in non-core areas and invest significantly in R&D and go-to-market strategies, prioritizing organic growth and strategic acquisitions that promise cost and revenue synergies. Emphasis is placed on identifying scalable growth segments that materially impact the business, ensuring disciplined spending on opportunities that move the needle for a $20 billion company. The goal is to spend enough to gain competitive advantages and provide unique value to customers.
Exploring Growth Trajectories in Hyperscale Cloud and Enterprise Markets
The discussion highlights the distinction between hyperscale and enterprise markets, emphasizing the significant growth in the optical and networking business post-infrastructure acquisition. There's recognition of early opportunities in IP networks, albeit with a longer revenue cycle, and a strategic investment of €100 million annually is mentioned to drive incremental sales in the enterprise networking sector, indicating a focus on technology stack evolution to maximize customer value and accelerate growth.
Outlook for Strong Growth in Optical Networks Division
The company anticipates robust growth for the year, with a particular emphasis on the optical networks division, which showed the best organic growth in the first quarter.
Strategic Growth Opportunities in Optical, IP Networks, and Fixed Networks
The speaker highlights significant growth opportunities in the optical sector, followed by IP networks, particularly emphasizing the importance of traction with hyperscalers. Fixed networks are seen as a stable, growing business, with notable demand for fiber and fixed wireless access contributing to growth, especially in markets like India. The company aims to capitalize on hyperscaler and CSP opportunities in the IP sector, focusing on data center investments.
Update on Mobile Networks Growth and Net Footprint Gains
The company confirms stabilization in mobile networks growth, noting a 30K net footprint gain since year-end 2023, with further details to be disclosed at a later capital markets day event.
Enterprise Sales Growth Driven by Optical and Infra in the US
Enterprise sales growth was primarily driven by the optical and infrastructure segments, particularly in the US, validating the early thesis on infrastructure growth.
Nokia and Amazon Settle IPR Dispute, Boosting Nokia Technologies' Net Sales Run Rate
Nokia and Amazon have amicably resolved their intellectual property rights dispute, ending all litigation. The deal, details of which remain confidential, has contributed to an increase in Nokia Technologies' net sales run rate to the guided range of Ed Ed billion euros.
Strategic 360 Relationship with Amazon Across Multiple Business Segments
The speaker highlights the significance of Amazon as a customer and partner in various business areas, emphasizing the comprehensive nature of their relationship beyond a tech licensing agreement.
Nokia's Capital Allocation Strategy and Focus on Growth Amidst Network Infrastructure Challenges
The discussion highlights Nokia's prioritization of capital allocation for growth, particularly in network infrastructure. Despite the market's forecasted limitations, Nokia is focusing on maximizing value through R&D, go-to-market strategies, and talent development. The CEO emphasizes the importance of investing in businesses at different stages, noting the aggressive investment cycle in AI and hyperscale builds, and the potential for collaboration with customers to drive innovation.
Strategic Perspectives on Capturing Value in the AI Cloud and Mobile Networks Business
The speaker discusses the unique position of their company as a European player with a full portfolio in the AI Cloud and mobile networks space, highlighting robust R&D, core, and IP portfolios. They emphasize the potential for significant value capture, encouraged by growth in the core business and emerging opportunities in enterprise and defense. The speaker notes the importance of understanding business cycles and scale differences between various segments, while also looking forward to AI-driven investments in services like augmented reality, virtual reality, autonomous vehicles, and robotics, which will require performant, reliable, and secure wireless communications.
Impact of Tariffs on Demand for MN and Ni in Q1
There was no significant demand pull-forward for MN or Ni from US customers in anticipation of tariffs during the first quarter, according to discussions with customers and internal assessments. The company is actively monitoring the situation and considering how to leverage its global manufacturing network in response to potential shifts in demand.
Hyperscaler Spend Amid Data Center Leasing Freeze Talks
Despite discussions of hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon freezing data center leasing, the company observes strong growth and order growth in its optical business segment, indicating no significant hesitancy in customer spend. Hyperscalers' leasing pauses do not necessarily reflect changes in capital expenditure plans, given their various investment options. Historical trends suggest short-term digestion periods following massive capital builds, akin to current technology transitions in the GPU market, which is not surprising to the company. The order book and pipeline suggest no long-term shift in investment thesis for the market segment.
Adapting Global Manufacturing Networks Amid Tariffs and Supply Chain Challenges
The dialogue discusses the agility and flexibility required in a global manufacturing network to mitigate potential impacts of tariffs, highlighting past successes during supply shortages. It also addresses the monitoring of ongoing situations and the anticipation of growth in specific business segments, particularly noting the slower growth expected in the fiber market compared to optical and IP networking.
Clarification on Tariff Costs and T-Mobile Contract Details
The discussion focuses on clarifying whether the company absorbs the cost of tariffs or passes them onto customers, noting that the answer varies across different contracts. Additionally, there's a query about the T-Mobile contract, seeking details on its commencement and potential margin impacts, to which the response highlights the contract's significance and long-term nature but provides no further specifics due to confidentiality.
要点回答
Q:What are the areas of focus for the new CEO of Nokia?
A:The new CEO of Nokia, who has just started his role, is focusing on the company's approach to capital allocation, aiming to drive efficiency and invest sufficiently in growth segments to deliver long-term value.
Q:What are the key performance indicators for Nokia's different business segments?
A:Nokia's key performance indicators for different business segments include net sales growth, profitability (operating margin), and free cash flow. In the first quarter, network infrastructure and cloud and network services experienced growth, while mobile networks saw stabilization.
Q:What is the projected impact of tariffs on Nokia's operating profit for the first quarter?
A:Tariffs are expected to have a negative impact of about €50 million on Nokia's operating profit for the first quarter, although the supply chain teams are working to further mitigate this exposure through their global manufacturing network.
Q:How did the acquisition of Infiniti affect Nokia's financial performance and prospects?
A:The acquisition of Infiniti is seen as a valuable addition, bringing benefits such as scale to accelerate product roadmaps, increased access to hyperscale customers, and a more diverse customer, geographic, and technology profile. The business showed strong momentum, with positive feedback from customers and progress toward synergy targets. This acquisition is expected to be accretive to Nokia's value and to deliver the anticipated synergies.
Q:What was the net sales growth in North America and India, and what was the reason for the decline in EMEA sales?
A:Net sales in North America grew at a double-digit pace due to low levels of investment activity in the year-ago quarter. India returned to growth within the APEC region, while EMEA sales declined due to some one-off contract settlements impacting net sales.
Q:What factors impacted the gross margin, and what was the net sales growth in the quarter?
A:Gross margin declined, primarily reflecting a one-off contract settlement with a net impact of €1.0 billion euros. Excluding this, mobile networks gross margin would have been more aligned with the normalized range. Net sales grew by Ed in the quarter, driven by continued momentum in core networks, mainly in 5G core, and strength in India.
Q:How did net sales perform in the different regions, and what were the main drivers of growth?
A:Net sales grew by Ed, with broad-based growth in CNS, particularly in India, driven by network infrastructure and especially by fixed networks due to strong fixed wireless access demand. Europe saw a decline, but this was mostly due to Nokia Technologies; excluding this, net sales would have declined by 7%.
Q:What were the main factors contributing to the free cash flow generation?
A:The company generated over Ed million in free cash flow, mainly from sizable inflows related to net working capital, due to the seasonal decline inreceivables typical in the quarter.
Q:What is the updated outlook for script comparable operating profit and free cash flow conversion?
A:The script comparable operating profit is still expected to be in the range of script to script billion. The free cash flow conversion is expected to be Ed to Ed of comparable operating profit.
Q:Can you provide details on the contract extension with T-Mobile and its significance for Nokia?
A:The contract extension with T-Mobile is a significant multi-year extension of the strategic partnership, which will shape the next chapter of mobile connectivity in the US. It is seen as an opportunity for growth, given T-Mobile's position as an innovative leader in the space.
Q:What is driving the growth in the network infrastructure segment and what are the key factors for its increasing backlog?
A:The growth in the network infrastructure segment is consistent with the rationale of the Infinera acquisition and the demand from hyperscale customers driving AI and data center build. The increasing backlog is also influenced by new connectivity demands between data centers for AI, such as training and inference. Additionally, the segment is seeing an increase in optical networking within data centers.
Q:What is the impact of the timing of deal bookings on the financial performance in the first quarter?
A:The timing of deal bookings had an impact on the financial performance in the first quarter. The deal was closed in February, so the revenue was only booked in March, which had a positive result. When looking at Infineera's performance including stock-based compensation in operating profit level, they were loss-making last year. The scale issue with Infineera and the different scale with Nokia's optical business are expected to result in synergies of 200 million, with the goal to see an acceleration in performance in 2025 for both Infineon and the optical business.
Q:What were the reasons behind the significant contract settlement and what is the potential for future occurrences?
A:The significant contract settlement was due to a customer-specific project with a specific customer, where work and investment were made to stabilize and enhance competitiveness. The surprise was that full visibility on the total cost was not available initially, leading to a gap in the assessment. The decision was made to take a charge to fully address the situation and meet the customer's needs. It is not expected that this will happen again, as the issue was specific to this project and the company has learned from it and plans to improve operational visibility moving forward.
Q:What is required to win large AI and data center deals and what is the investment strategy?
A:To win large AI and data center deals, companies need a portfolio that aligns with the high-scale and bandwidth demands of hyperscale数据中心, which are similar to the capabilities expected by cloud and AI-driven hyperscale customers. This has opened up opportunities as the technology stack and expectations for reliability and performance have aligned. Investments in this opportunity have been aggressive, including acquisitions like Infineera in the optical space, and require collaboration and co-development that can lead to a longer revenue growth cycle.
Q:Will the new licensing deal with Amazon affect Nokia's non-smartphone IP sales guidance?
A:The new licensing deal with Amazon is seen as a positive example and is expected to affect Nokia's non-smartphone IP sales guidance. While specific figures have not been updated, the company plans to provide more insight on this at the Capital Markets Day later in the year. The company is happy to see the increase and development of these segments, and the licensing deal is one of the proof points of this progress.
Q:What is the primary focus of the script mentioned in the speech?
A:The primary focus of the script is on the cost impact and not on pricing. It's based on the company's own costs and reflects the current perspective on the situation.
Q:Why is the team advised to focus on what they can control?
A:The team is advised to focus on what they can control because the situation is very dynamic, and by focusing on short-term impacts and mitigation strategies based on the current supply chain and manufacturing network, they can ensure they maintain supply continuity for customers.
Q:What is the reason for not providing visibility in the second half of the assessment?
A:Visibility in the second half is not provided because the situation is dynamic and the exact conditions for that period are unclear. However, the company is evaluating and pursuing mitigation strategies beyond the second quarter and considering longer-term strategic options.
Q:What are the divisional indications for the fourth quarter and are they still in place?
A:The divisional indications for the fourth quarter include strong growth in script within network infrastructure, an additional investment of $100 million for the IP side, stable development in mobile networks despite headwinds, and good growth momentum on the core side of cloud and network services. These indications are still in place and the company continues to reiterate them.
Q:What has been the pleasant surprise for the new executive regarding Nokia's technology base and employee base?
A:The new executive was pleasantly surprised by the technology base at Nokia, specifically mentioning the product portfolio and the long-term technology being researched at Nokia Bell Labs. Additionally, the employee base was highlighted for their passion, team mindset, and openness to learning and evolving the business.
Q:How does the new executive view the potential impact of acquisitions on the business?
A:The new executive believes that selective acquisitions that align with the company's core growth areas and can be synergized in terms of cost structure and revenue are essential. Acquisitions should not only be exciting but should also be disciplined and material to the business's impact.
Q:What is the current status and trajectory of the company's hyperscale cloud customer traction?
A:The company is seeing most growth in the hyperscale and AI data center sector of the optical and networking business. Although there is some early activity in IP networks with hyperscale customers, the revenue growth in IP networks is expected to have a longer cycle. Investments in this space have already been made, particularly in the optical segment.
Q:What are the areas of focus for growth in the current year according to the transcript?
A:The areas of focus for growth in the current year include optical networks, IP networks, and fixed networks. In particular, the transcript indicates a strong opportunity for growth in optical and IP networks, with fixed networks being a more predictable and stable business. There is a specific mention of the importance of the Indian market and the growth of fixed wireless access.
Q:Which regions are contributing to the growth in optical and fixed networks?
A:The growth in optical and fixed networks is attributed to the US market, which has seen significant contributions from hyperscalers and fixed wireless access. The transcript indicates that in the first quarter, fixed network buyers' growth in India was 9%, partly driven by fixed wireless access, and this growth is expected to continue.
Q:What was the growth in mobile networks for the year, and what is the perspective moving forward?
A:The growth in mobile networks for the year has been described as stabilizing, with no further details or expectations given. The transcript states that the mobile networks business is stabilizing, but no update on net footprint gains since the Mobile World Congress has been provided. A capital markets day is mentioned later in the year to give more understanding of the mobile networks business.
Q:What were the reasons behind the strong enterprise sales growth, and how does it impact future expectations?
A:Enterprise sales growth was primarily driven by hyperscale customers, with optical and more specifically infranil playing a significant role. The geographic focus was largely in the US. While this was a bright spot in the report, it is not clear if this momentum will be maintained in the coming quarters. The transcript suggests that the growth aligns with the company's strategy and is a validation of the early thesis on infrastructure.
Q:What were the key factors affecting the agreement with Amazon and the financial implications?
A:The agreement with Amazon was amicably signed and ended all litigation issues between the parties. A cash payment related to the agreement was made in the quarter, but no further financial details were disclosed. The deal is considered important for Nokia's net sales run rate, which has increased to €5 billion. The relationship with Amazon is described as a 360-degree relationship encompassing multiple business areas beyond just tech licensing.
Q:How does Nokia plan to balance growth and capital allocation with respect to its mobile network assets?
A:Nokia's capital allocation strategy involves focusing on growth in network infrastructure, including both optical and IP networks. The importance of mobile networks for Nokia's capital allocation strategy is discussed but not explicitly detailed. The transcript suggests that mobile networks are part of the ongoing business review and are important for the group, although specific strategies or growth expectations for this market are not clearly articulated.
Q:What is the significance of capital allocation in a CEO's role?
A:The significance of capital allocation in a CEO's role is that it is one of the most important aspects, involving the allocation of resources to R&D, go to market strategies, and intellectual capital, including the cultivation and development of talent.
Q:What business dynamics are affecting MN, and how does the speaker perceive AI and hyperscale development?
A:The business dynamics affecting MN include an aggressive investment cycle due to AI and hyperscale build, as well as faster product cycles in networking and optical. The speaker perceives significant opportunities for value capture through continued R&D and collaboration with customers.
Q:What differentiates MN's portfolio and what areas does the speaker see as key for value capture?
A:MN's portfolio is differentiated by its dual European and Western presence with a full portfolio in AI and networking. Key areas for value capture include growth in core business and the work of the Cloud and Network Services team.
Q:How does the speaker view the nature of the R&D business and its scale?
A:The speaker views the R&D business as heavily project-based due to the nature of deal-making and deployment. However, it's also seen as a scale business, with the scale business on the R&D side differing from that on the NNI side.
Q:What emerging opportunities and challenges does the speaker identify in defense and telecom sectors?
A:The speaker identifies emerging opportunities in enterprise and defense around R&D, with a positive outlook for trends in defense. There's also a belief that wireless communications will be necessary for various sectors such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and autonomous vehicles, requiring investment despite different business cycles.
Q:Did the company witness any significant changes in demand from US customers in the first quarter due to tariffs?
A:The company did not witness any material impact on demand from US customers in the first quarter due to tariffs. There has been no material shift in demand, and the company is monitoring the situation closely and assessing the need for responsiveness.
Q:What is the company's position on hyperscaler investments and the potential for CapEx changes?
A:The company is pleased with the revenue performance in optical and strong order growth, which indicates growth with hyperscalers. Freezing data center leasing talks by hyperscalers doesn't necessarily indicate a change to their CapEx plans as they have multiple investment options. The company anticipates that short-term periods of digestion around technology transitions and current technology transition in the GPU market will play out similarly to previous trends.
Q:How does the company plan for potential changes in production domiciles due to tariffs?
A:The company is closely monitoring the situation and evaluating all mitigation options as the production domiciles could potentially re-localize from Mexico to the US or shift to Southeast Asia. The company has been flexible and agile in the past and will continue to work on this and provide updates and clarity on the actions taken as the situation unfolds.
Q:What is the status of the B program and when can we expect a big uptick in orders?
A:The B program is being closely followed, and while there has been a pushout in the last few quarters, the company does not expect it to impact this year. Fiber is seen as a compelling technology that will continue to drive growth within the NNI segment, although at a slower pace compared to other segments. The company anticipates continued growth in the business, albeit not at the same potential as optical and IP networking.
Q:How are the company's contracts structured in terms of handling potential tariffs?
A:The company has various contracts across different businesses, and the structure of these contracts with respect to handling potential tariffs is not uniformly clear-cut. The company is looking at every alternative to mitigate the impact of tariffs. They emphasize that they have many different types of contracts, and there isn't a simple answer to this question.
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