台积电 (TSM.US) 2026年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
TSMC forecasts increased capital expenditure driven by AI and advanced packaging demand, expanding capacities globally, maintaining profitability through strategic margins, and emphasizing technology and customer trust as competitive advantages against rivals.
会议速览
Overview of TSMC's Second Quarter 2026 Results PresentationTSMC held a performance briefing for the second quarter of 2026, which was broadcast live in English and presided over by TSMC's head of legal relations. The CFO will summarize last quarter's operations and forecast guidance for the next quarter, after which the Chairman and CEO will convey key messages from the company, and the meeting will be open to question-and-answer sessions. The meeting contains forward-looking statements to alert participants to risks and uncertainties.
Second Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights and Third Quarter Business OutlookReported the financial performance of the second quarter of 2026, including the proportion of revenue, balance sheet, cash flow and capital expenditure of each technology and platform. Revenue is expected to grow 12% in the third quarter to $45.6 to $4.58 billion, with gross margin and operating margin also given in specific ranges.
Second to Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Forecast and Capital Expenditure PlanDiscusses the earnings situation for the second through third quarters of 2026, including the reasons for gross margin growth and expected decline, as well as adjustments to the $60-6.4 billion capital budget for the full year, highlighting the continued profitability commitment to shareholders and the increase in the cash dividend plan.
TSMC's Global Expansion and Strengthening of AI Technology LeadershipTSMC expects revenue of $4 billion billion at the end of the second quarter, benefiting from strong demand for cutting-edge technologies. Looking to the future, TSMC is accelerating the layout of AI areas, plans to invest $10 billion in Arizona to build a new plant, while expanding advanced packaging capacity in Taiwan. The company emphasized that it will continue to support customer growth, especially in mature nodes and high-value areas, and is committed to developing next-generation 14nm technology to meet high-performance computing needs.
TSMC's Capital Expenditure Planning and KX Project Expansion Strategy in the Next Three YearsIt discussed capital expenditure plans for the next three years, underlining the strong commitment to long-term trends such as AI and the strong determination to expand the KX project, without providing specific figures, but saying that it will invest flexibly based on business opportunities to ensure that it supports customer needs.
Arizona, USA, New Investment Billion KPADs Capacity PlanningDiscussed plans to invest in additional 100 billion KPADs capacity in Arizona, with the goal of meeting strong market demand. The total production capacity will reach 265 billion KPADs, and four new plants are planned, with the specific schedule adjusted according to market conditions.
TSMC CEO talks about the importance of competition and technology in the semiconductor industryDiscusses the pressure TSMC faces from competitors such as Samsung, emphasizing that technology, manufacturing capabilities and customer trust are the core competitiveness of the semiconductor industry, and government support is important but not decisive.
AI Accelerators and Advanced Packaging Technologies: Market Needs and Corporate StrategiesThe dialogue revolved around the growing market demand for AI accelerators and the competitive landscape of advanced packaging technologies. One side emphasized the importance of increasing investment in AI accelerators, pointed out that market demand continues to be strong, and was optimistic about the growth forecast in the next five years, but did not give specific figures. The other side discussed the rise of advanced packaging technologies, particularly EMIDT technology, and expressed a welcome attitude towards increased flexibility in the market and a commitment to fully support customer success, even in the face of technical challenges. Both sides have shown their determination to actively respond to market changes.
TSMC How to Plan Capacity to Deal with Market Demand and Competitive PressureDiscusses the various factors that TSMC considers when planning capacity, including customer demand, industry competition, and the impact of external factors such as data centers, and emphasizes the optimistic expectations for the growth trend of the AI industry and the prudent decision-making for capacity expansion.
TSMC explores long-term profitability and pricing strategiesThe dialogue revolved around TSMC's long-term profitability, referring to the high profit status of memory manufacturers, but emphasizing TSMC's value realization as a partner, that is, indirectly increasing its own profits by ensuring customer success, while promising not to suddenly raise prices significantly to maintain a trusting relationship with customers. The discussion also touched on the reasonable gross margin target that TSMC should maintain and the importance of its pricing strategy, with the ultimate goal of achieving long-term sustainable development while balancing the interests of customers and the company.
TSMC discusses customer concentration risk and investment strategy.The risks of increased customer concentration, especially in the context of growing AI market demand, and the question of whether TSMC would consider investing in customers through financial arrangements are discussed. TSMC said that the current cooperation model with customers is successful and has not considered such financial arrangements.
TSMC Investment and Technology Progress: US Billion Investment Plan and AI Computing Platform DynamicsTSMC's future 10 billion investment plan in the United States is discussed, including the investment time frame and market drivers, emphasizing the acceleration of investment according to market demand. At the same time, the progress of AI computing platform, especially the material contribution time of network switch, and the development trend of AI data center technology are discussed. It also addresses the growth potential of different AI technologies, such as CPU and GPU accelerators, and updates TSMC's progress in advanced packaging technologies, such as glass substrates and glass carriers, highlighting efforts to reduce costs and accelerate product time to market.
Analysis of TSMC's Capital Expenditure and Future Revenue Growth and Competitive SituationTSMC's capex plans for the next few years and their correlation to revenue growth are discussed, highlighting cloud AI and edge AI as key drivers. At the same time, the competitive landscape of the back-end packaging business is analyzed, and the possible impact of the progress of competitors in the field of advanced packaging is pointed out, as well as TSMC's attitude and strategy to this.
Discussion on Challenges of High NA Lithography Technology and Excess Market DemandThe dialogue focused on the application challenges of high NA lithography technology in the manufacturing industry and the problem of excess market demand. One side pointed out that although the high NA lithography machine has superior performance, its manufacturing cost and technology maturity are the key factors to decide whether to adopt it or not. The other party asked about the excess market demand, but did not get a specific response, only confirmed that the excess demand exceeded 30%-50%.
Discussion on Capacity Expansion and Advanced Packaging Investment Strategy in Semiconductor IndustryFuture capacity growth plans for the semiconductor industry are discussed, including expansion targets for 2nm and 3nm technology nodes, and capital expenditure allocations for advanced packaging and testing. The flexibility of capacity growth and market demand orientation are emphasized, and the correlation between advanced packaging and overall revenue needs to be further considered.
TSMC Capital Expenditure Increase and Mature Process Demand AnalysisDiscusses the reasons for TSMC's upward revision of its capex guidance, including AI accelerator demand growth and inflationary pressures. At the same time, the supply and demand dynamics of mature process nodes are analyzed, and it is pointed out that there is a shortage in the field of power management and sensors due to AI data center demand, while the demand in the field of consumer products is weak.
要点回答
Q：What are the financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026?
A：The financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026 include a review of revenue by process technology and platform, an overview of the balance sheet with cash and marketable securities, and an analysis of cash flow and capital expenditure. The quarter saw an increase in revenue, with advanced technology accounting for 77% of wafer revenue. Revenue growth was attributed to the HPC, smartphone, and automotive sectors. The balance sheet showed an increase in cash and marketable securities, with an overall increase in cash balance by 99 billion NT. The capital expenditures for the second quarter were 15.7 billion in US dollars.
Q：What is the guidance for the third quarter of 2026?
A：The guidance for the third quarter of 2026 indicates that the revenue is expected to be between 45,460 million to 45,800 million US dollars, representing a 12% sequential increase or a 37% year-over-year increase at the midpoint, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 TSMC estimates a growth margin between 65 and 67%, with an operating margin between 56 and 58% for the third quarter.
Q：What factors are expected to affect profitability in the second half of 2026?
A：Profitability in the second half of 2026 is expected to be affected by the steep ramp-up of the 2-nanometer technology, which is anticipated to dilute the gross margin by more than 3 to 4 percentage points. Additionally, the profitability is expected to be impacted by the growth of overseas expansion, gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs, and the scaling of the structural demand from industry mega trends such as 5G, AI, and HPC. On the positive side, strong demand for leading edge technologies and ongoing cost improvement efforts are expected to contribute to profitability. Finally, foreign exchange rate fluctuations may also play a role.
Q：How has the 2026 capital budget been adjusted and what will it be allocated for?
A：The 2026 capital budget has been raised to between 60 and 64 billion US dollars due to the strong structural demand from customers, including the emergence of the agented AI market. The budget is allocated with approximately 70 to 80 percent for advanced process technologies, about 10 percent for specialty technologies, and the remaining 10 to 20 percent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and other related activities.
Q：What is the near-term demand outlook according to TSMC?
A：The near-term demand outlook according to TSMC is supported by strong demand for leading edge process technologies, including the steep ramp of their 2-nanometer technology. TSMC plans to be prudent in business planning while focusing on business fundamentals to strengthen their competitive position. Consumer and price-sensitive market segments are being challenged by rising component prices and uncertainties in the Chinese macroeconomics, which is being considered in their planning. TSMC remains confident in the multi-year AI mega trend and continues to see robust demand from cloud service providers. The company now expects the four-year revenue growth in 2026 to be slightly above 40% year-over-year in US dollar terms.
Q：What are the characteristics of a good technology partner according to the speaker?
A：A good technology partner should have a deep understanding of the technology, be able to utilize it effectively, and work together with the other party to prepare and scale up IT capacity.
Q：What is the speaker's position on customer signals and AI investment?
A：The speaker indicates that there are strong signals from customers regarding AI, leading the company to revise up their full-year revenue guidance. There is a focus on AI capex, with a particular mention of a strong CPU as a growth opportunity.
Q：What is the updated guidance regarding AI and how should the content be interpreted?
A：The company continues to see very strong and positive signals from customers regarding AI demand. The previous AI growth guidance of mid to high fifty percent is reiterated, and there is a discussion around the definition of AI accelerator and whether it's included in the guidance.
Q：How does the speaker describe the competitive threat from advanced packaging technology?
A：The speaker acknowledges that advanced packaging technology, specifically E-MIDT, is gaining traction. However, the company views their current packaging capacity as tight and constrained by customer growth, which they welcome as a sign of market expansion. They also express hope for the success of the new technology and are working hard to shorten the gap between demand and capacity. The competitive threat is thus seen as positive, and the company is optimistic about the flexibility it offers to customers.
Q：What is TSMC's stance on handling potential issues with new technology?
A：TSMC prioritizes supporting their customers' success, and they are committed to working with customers to address any issues that may arise with new technology. The company is confident in its ability to adapt and support customers effectively.
Q：How does TSMC approach capacity expansion and what factors are considered?
A：TSMC considers both customer feedback and competitive pressures when expanding capacity. They take into account the multi-year demand from customers and the competitive environment, and they also factor in externalities such as data center delays and power capacity. The company makes careful judgment calls based on input from customers and their own assessment of the competitive landscape.
Q：What are TSMC's thoughts on the future supply of chips given their capacity build-out plans?
A：TSMC does not provide a guarantee but believes that there will be a tight supply in the coming years, extending to around 2029. They foresee robust demand, especially from the emerging AI industry, impacting various sectors like automotive and robotics. The company has plans to increase capacity and is closely monitoring data center progress to ensure chips are not idle in inventory.
Q：What is TSMC's strategy regarding profitability and pricing for foundry services?
A：TSMC aims to be a profitable partner for their customers and emphasizes the importance of their customers' success. They do not provide specific profitability or pricing strategies but suggest that profitability should be aligned with the value they bring to their customers and the success of their partnership.
Q：What is the company's stance on price increases and customer survival?
A：The company does not intend to squeeze customers out of the market and maintains a trustworthy relationship with them. They assure customers that any profit margins are enough for long-term sustaining expansion, benefiting both the customers and the company.
Q：What is the company's philosophy on customer concentration and profit margins?
A：The company's philosophy is not to be concerned about customer concentration as their large customers are growing larger. The focus is on earning sufficient value and maintaining a good gross margin for long-term sustainability, which benefits both the customers and the company.
Q：What is the risk around customer concentration as AI demand continues to grow?
A：The risk around customer concentration is minimal as the company's large customers are growing larger and the company is happy with this trend. New players in the AI industry do not concern the company regarding customer concentration.
Q：Is TSMC considering investing in its customers?
A：TSMC does not have a strategy to invest in its customers, as they believe they are working successfully with their current customers under their current model. The company does not engage in financial arrangements for investment purposes.
Q：How should investors think about the progression of TSMC's investment in the U.S.?
A：Investors should not expect a specific schedule at this time, but they should be aware that TSMC has a plan and is speeding up investment progress as market conditions and customer demands allow. The company is also working swiftly to expand its facilities in Taiwan and Japan.
Q：When can we expect a meaningful contribution from TSMC's Coop platform?
A：Production of the Coop platform has started and it is expected to become a fairly important technology in the next few years, contributing meaningfully to the business as the demand for AI data centers increases.
Q：What is TSMC's outlook for different types of AI within the AI sector?
A：TSMC cannot provide a specific forecast for different types of AI within the AI sector. However, they acknowledge that AI and CPU growth potential is significant and visibility is high.
Q：What progress has been made with van's packaging technology?
A：TSMC is working on developing van's packaging technology, including larger size maps and advanced areas like glass substrates. A pattern line is being built, which is expected to take another year to mature before production with customers can begin.
Q：What is TSMC's sales growth outlook for the next couple of years?
A：TSMC has provided a solid capex outlook for the year and expects the revenue outlook in the next couple of years to remain significant. The revenue growth is tied to their investment, with a good assessment that the forecasted demand will lead to substantial revenue in the future.
Q：What is driving the demand for TSMC's products?
A：The increase in demand for TSMC's products is being driven by both cloud computing and edge computing. Additionally, there is an increase in tool vendors' prices, further contributing to the demand.
Q：How does TSMC view competition in advanced packaging and its potential impact on the business?
A：TSMC views competition in advanced packaging as a challenge, but the company believes that their value proposition remains strong. Rising competition, especially from companies like Intel, does not diminish the value of their foundry business, which spans front-end logic to back-end packaging.
Q：What are the challenges associated with different front-end processes and back-end capacity?
A：The challenges mentioned include different backgrounds leading to front-end processes being too diverse and a shortage of capacity in the back-end, which results in a bigger gap between different processes.
Q：How does the competitor's flexibility impact TSMC's business?
A：Competitor flexibility, which allows for a variety of wafers to be put into packages, helps TSMC to offer more services to its customers and stay competitive.
Q：What are customers' feedback and concerns regarding the challenges with dye stitching?
A：Customers are considering the impact of die placement challenges on the adoption of their technology, especially with a smaller field size. The feedback is whether these challenges are significant enough to slow down the adoption of the technology or if they could make the technology more productive.
Q：What is TSMC's approach towards using high-end tools like ASML's system?
A：TSMC considers ASML's high-end tool to be very good. They work with ASML to adapt the tool for manufacturing in terms of cost and maturity, taking into account technology maturity and their usage of the tool.
Q：Is the demand for TSMC's products significantly higher than the company's ability to supply?
A：There is an assumption that demand for TSMC's products is about 30-50% above their ability to supply. However, the actual excess demand might be even larger.
Q：Are the previously stated capacity growth numbers for TSMC still accurate?
A：The previously shared five-year capacity growth numbers for TSMC, which was around 70% for two nanometers and 25% for three nanometers, are still the same as of the discussion, and there have been no changes over the past quarter.
Q：What is the impact of advanced packaging on capital expenditure and revenue share?
A：Advanced packaging represents about 10-20% of total capital expenditure. The exact share of advanced packaging in the price and revenue compared to the capex is not specified, but it is suggested that advanced packaging becomes more capital intensive over time.
Q：Why is it challenging to allocate capital expenditure specifically to advanced packaging?
A：It is challenging to allocate capital expenditure specifically to advanced packaging due to flexibility between the front-end and back-end processes, sometimes creating bottlenecks which require more investment in specific tools, such as testers.
Q：What influenced the recent increase in TSMC's capital expenditure guidance?
A：The recent increase in TSMC's capital expenditure guidance is primarily influenced by the IT agenda, specifically AI and AI accelerators, and the continuous increase in demand. TSMC is collaborating with TSMC for capacity increase to meet the demand.
Q：What is the demand-supply dynamic and pricing for mature nodes in semiconductor manufacturing?
A：For mature nodes, the demand recovery is strong in specific segments, particularly those related to AI. Supply is tight in certain areas like power management, micro 90 mm technology, and sensors. Consumer products are not in high demand, and other segments do not show a strong demand. Pricing for mature nodes is very favorable or strong due to these conditions.
