高盛集团 (GS.US) 2026年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Goldman Sachs reported $20.3 billion in net revenues and $20.98 earnings per share in Q2 2026, driven by strategic dealmaking, AI investments, and strong client relationships. Highlights include leading M&A advisory, record revenues in Equities, and Asset Wealth Management growth. Capital management priorities were emphasized, including investing in the business, increasing dividends, and repurchasing shares, reflecting disciplined capital management and positioning for continued growth and returns.
会议速览
Record Earnings and Strategic Growth at Goldman Sachs in Q2 2026Goldman Sachs reports record revenues, earnings, and ROE for Q2 2026, driven by increased strategic dealmaking and AI investment opportunities. The firm highlights its leadership in M&A advisory and its integrated approach across global banking, markets, and asset wealth management, positioning it at the center of clients' most significant transactions.
Record Client Activity, Strategic Growth, and AI's Role in Goldman Sachs' FutureGoldman Sachs reports record backlogs, revenues, and fundraising, attributing success to strong client engagement and AI-driven opportunities. The firm highlights its global strength, strategic acquisitions, and capital management. It anticipates continued growth in AI infrastructure investments, emphasizing people's pivotal role amidst technological change.
Record-Breaking Q2 Financials: Highest Net Revenues and Earnings per ShareAchieved record net revenues of $20.3 billion and earnings per share of $20.98, driving a quarterly ROE of 23.5% and ROTE of 25.5%. Global banking and markets revenues hit $15.5 billion, with advisory revenues up 17% year-over-year. Investment banking backlog at a five-year high, optimistic outlook for strategic dialogues.
Record Financial Performance with Strong Revenues and Inflows in Q2The dialogue highlights record financial achievements in the second quarter, including revenues of $7.4 billion, significant growth in intermediation and equity financing, and a record $4 trillion in assets under supervision. It also notes strong loan growth, increased management fees, and robust fundraising, forecasting full-year fundraising to exceed $105 billion.
Q2 Financials: Loan Portfolio Growth, Expense Management, and ProfitabilityThe company reported a 3% sequential increase in the total loan portfolio to $261 billion, primarily driven by growth in collateralized and residential real estate loans. Net interest income stood at $4 billion firm-wide. Despite a rise in non-economic expenses to $5.6 billion, attributed to transaction-based costs from heightened activity, particularly in derivatives, the company maintained disciplined expense management. The efficiency ratio improved, reflecting a decline in the compensation ratio net of provisions to 31%, highlighting material operating leverage and a focus on driving long-term efficiencies.
Strong Financial Performance, Strategic Capital Management, and Regulatory OptimismThe firm highlights robust financial results, strategic priorities in capital management, and a positive outlook on regulatory reforms. Key points include an effective tax rate, strong CCAR test results, increased dividends, share buybacks, and expectations for a balanced regulatory approach to support lending and capital formation.
Equations Business Growth and Client Base Diversification in Global MarketsThe dialogue highlights strategic investments in technology, talent, and financial resources to enhance market share in global equity financing, particularly in Asia. It emphasizes the diversification of client base and the importance of global scale advantages in managing equity asset flows. The discussion also touches on optimizing portfolio concentration and the benefits of a global footprint in capturing growth opportunities.
Strategic Capital Allocation for Client-Focused Growth and Shareholder ReturnsThe dialogue emphasizes the strategic allocation of capital towards supporting client activities and enhancing shareholder returns, prioritizing investments in the client franchise over excess capital for buybacks, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital generation and investment.
Strategic Capital Deployment and Shareholder ReturnsDiscussed strategic allocation of capital to areas of opportunity, emphasizing disciplined and nimble processes for deploying funds or returning them to shareholders. Highlighted successful capital deployment in Asia, alongside investments in client resources, and a commitment to creating shareholder value through consistent returns and strategic growth initiatives.
Durability of AI CapEx Cycle and Impact on Goldman Sachs' Earnings OutlookDiscussion focuses on the durability of the AI capital expenditure cycle, emphasizing Goldman Sachs' confidence in long-term growth opportunities despite potential short-term market recalibrations. The dialogue highlights the firm's disciplined approach to capital deployment, its diversified revenue streams, and the impact of Asia's hyperscale trade on revenues, alongside considerations of balance sheet demand and prime capacity constraints.
Expanding Prime Services Amid Market Dynamics for Enhanced Client Portfolio ManagementThe dialogue highlights the strategic growth of prime services in response to market dynamics, emphasizing selective expansion and leveraging multi-year investments to support client portfolio management, with a focus on pricing leverage and disciplined market participation.
Navigating Capital Ratios, Financing Growth, and Efficiency in Investment BankingDiscussed the impact of SLR ratios on financing business growth, emphasizing dynamic constraint management and strategic resource allocation. Highlighted disciplined expense growth, leveraging AI and firm process improvements for enhanced productivity, and the role of technology in scaling client activity without significant human capital expansion.
Exploring the Multiplier Effect of Advisory Fees and Financing Demand in Corporate BankingThe dialogue discusses the multiplier effect of advisory fees on additional banking activities and the high demand for financing services, particularly in the context of an AI capital expenditure supercycle. It highlights the firm's strategic focus on leveraging trusted advisor relationships to expand services across wealth management, asset management, and client financing, emphasizing the firm's approach to balancing market share growth with risk management.
Analysis of Loan Growth in Global Banking and Markets BusinessDiscusses the sources of loan growth in GDM, highlighting big financing deals and general deals-related financing in Q2.
Strategic Deployment of Capital in Deals Book and Expansion of Financing SolutionsThe dialogue highlights the strategic prioritization of deploying capital into deals, emphasizing disciplined growth in financing solutions, and leveraging origination capabilities to serve diverse client bases through a multifaceted distribution strategy.
Managing CT One Ratio and Capital Deployment StrategiesDiscussed the drivers behind the CT one ratio changes, emphasizing market risk, credit risks, and earnings relative to dividends and buybacks. Highlighted the firm's commitment to an operating model, capital cushion for client-based deployment, and strategic return of capital through share buybacks, aiming to maintain a balanced capital management approach.
AI-Driven Efficiency and Productivity: A New Era in Workforce OptimizationThe dialogue discusses how advancements in AI technology have led to increased employee productivity, reducing the need for headcount expansion while maintaining robust revenue growth. The focus is on leveraging AI to enhance workforce efficiency rather than making structural changes to the human capital footprint.
Backlog Trends & Strategic M&A Driving Growth in DCMThe dialogue highlights robust revenue growth attributed to strategic mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on scale advantages. While leverage finance and refinancing are noted, the primary driver of backlog activity is large-scale strategic opportunities, reflecting a shift in CEO perspectives towards inorganic growth amidst favorable regulatory conditions.
Understanding the Lag Between Fundraising and Revenue Recognition in Alternatives BusinessThe dialogue discusses the time lag between raising capital and recognizing revenue in the alternatives business, emphasizing the continuous deployment process and the strategic approach to managing funds for optimal investment opportunities.
Anticipated Material Increase in Incentive Fees for Q3 and Q4Speakers discussed expectations of significantly higher incentive fees in the third and fourth quarters, attributed to specific known transactions. The increase is not indicative of a medium-term run rate adjustment but rather a result of scheduled events and earnings certainty for the firm.
Exploring Demand Drivers and Growth Strategies in Fundraising SuccessDiscusses the firm's strong fundraising momentum, attributing it to both long-term strategy and current market conditions. Highlights the attractiveness of the firm's scale, capability, and customization in asset management, particularly in private credit. Emphasizes the correlation between expertise, differentiation, and LP discernment, projecting continued performance and growth.
Leveraging AI for Enhanced Client Services and Internal Efficiency at Goldman SachsDiscusses the rapid evolution of AI technology and its integration into Goldman Sachs, emphasizing the firm's investment in engineering talent and data to enhance client services and internal processes, positioning the company as a leader in AI-driven innovation.
AI-Driven Capital Raises: A New Era of Investment Banking Success Compared to Dot Com and Pandemic PeriodsThe dialogue discusses the significant impact of AI on current capital raises and investment banking activities, contrasting it with the dot com era and the pandemic period. While AI contributions are substantial, the firm's diversity and sustainability set this cycle apart, with historical patterns of acceleration and recalibration expected to continue.
Strategies for Enhancing Market Share with Top Clients at Goldman SachsDiscusses the firm's focused approach to improving wallet share with key clients, highlighting disciplined processes for identifying gaps and opportunities, leading to significant gains in market position over six years.
Asset Wealth Management Growth and Inorganic OpportunitiesDiscussed the current state and growth potential of Asset Wealth Management, highlighting acquisitions that have filled gaps and accelerated growth. Emphasized the importance of global banking and markets, while noting the durability of their scale. Mentioned ongoing efforts to find inorganic opportunities to enhance the franchise, maintaining a disciplined approach with a high bar for any new acquisitions.
Accelerating Investment in Ultra High Net Worth Wealth Management for Enhanced Client FootprintManagement highlights accelerated investment in ultra high net worth wealth management, aiming to expand client footprint and scale the business with people, acknowledging fragmented market opportunities and previous investment timing.
Leadership's Vision for Long-Term Growth and Investment in Goldman SachsThe firm's leadership emphasizes long-term investment strategies, focusing on growth opportunities over the next 3-7 years, aiming to expand the firm and its earnings, capitalizing on current market conditions.
要点回答
Q：What were the financial results for the second quarter and year to date?
A：For the second quarter and year to date, Goldman Sachs generated record revenues of $20.3 billion, with record earnings per share of $20.98, an Return on Equity (ROE) of 23.5%, and a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) of 25.5%.
Q：What factors contributed to the significant increase in strategic dealmaking activity?
A：The significant increase in strategic dealmaking activity was driven by clients' desire for greater scale to invest and compete more effectively, resulting in large cap corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) volumes reaching 90% through the first half of 2026.
Q：How did Goldman Sachs support clients in the context of AI integration and dealmaking?
A：Goldman Sachs supported clients by providing structuring, financing, risk management, and capital markets execution across both public and private markets. The firm also advised on integrating AI into operations and assisted with the structuring and execution of transactions related to AI, such as the deals for SpaceX and Alphabet.
Q：What positions has Goldman Sachs achieved in M&A advisory and announced volumes?
A：Goldman Sachs has become the number 1 M&A advisor and is the first bank to cross the $1 trillion in announced volumes over a six-month period. The firm's longstanding leadership in M&A combined with its '1 Goldman Sachs' operating ethos has created a real multiplier effect in the firm's advisory relationships.
Q：What is Goldman Sachs's strategy for further collaboration and growth across its franchises?
A：Goldman Sachs plans to further collaborate across its global banking and markets and asset wealth management franchise. The firm believes there is substantial potential to deepen connectivity between advisory, financing, capital markets, investing, wealth management, and to leverage its progress and pipeline to enhance value for clients and drive long-term growth.
Q：What record was set regarding client engagement and fundraising?
A：Goldman Sachs set a record with its backlog, which increased to its highest level in five years and second highest on record, underpinned by a record advisory backlog. The firm also experienced momentum across its trading businesses, with record revenues in financing and equations, and a record $59 billion of fundraising in the second quarter and $85 billion year to date.
Q：What recent acquisition and strategic partnerships have bolstered Goldman Sachs's Asset and Wealth Management business?
A：Goldman Sachs has recently acquired Industry Ventures and Innovator, both of which are showing solid momentum in the first few months of integration. These strategic partnerships have helped to expand the firm's capabilities and enhance its client offering.
Q：What is Goldman Sachs's stance on capital and regulation?
A：Goldman Sachs remains engaged with regulators to ensure a better alignment of regulatory outcomes with underlying risk. The firm's robust capital position and disciplined dynamic resource management enable it to support clients across market conditions, drive accretive returns, and return capital to shareholders. The firm recently announced an increase in its quarterly dividend and repurposed $4 billion of common stock.
Q：What is Goldman Sachs's approach to managing capital and supporting clients?
A：Goldman Sachs manages capital by maintaining a robust capital position and a disciplined approach to dynamic resource management. The firm aims to support clients across various market conditions, capitalizes on AI-related opportunities, and focuses on strategic execution to grow its businesses. The firm's efforts also include enhanced connectivity across the firm to serve clients and deliver for shareholders.
Q：What is the impact of AI on the firm's operations and how is it being integrated?
A：AI is being integrated into Goldman Sachs's operations to expand the capabilities of its talent and drive commercial impact for clients. The firm views AI as a transformational technology that will enhance its services and capabilities without replacing the importance of its people.
Q：What were the year-over-year increases in revenues for the speaker's firm?
A：The year-over-year increases in revenues were as follows: asset wealth measured revenues were up 20% to $4.6 billion year to date, management and other fees were up 20% to a record $3.4 billion, and private banking and lending revenues were $689 million. Investments revenues of $441 million saw a significant year-over-year increase from substantially higher net gains on investments in private equity.
Q：What were the key figures for total assets under supervision and alternative AUS?
A：Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $4 trillion, supported by $91 billion of long-term net inflows across asset classes, with alternative AUS totaling $459 billion, driving $725 million in management and other fees. Gross third-party alternative fundraising was a record $59 billion for the quarter and $85 billion for the first half of the year.
Q：How did the firm's net interest income and loan portfolio growth perform?
A：Firm-wide net interest income was $4 billion, and the total loan portfolio increased 3% sequentially to $261 billion, reflecting growth in other collateralized and residential real estate loans. The provision for credit losses of $102 million primarily reflected impairments related to wholesale loans.
Q：What was the percentage change in total operating expenses, and what is the expected effective tax rate for the full year?
A：Total operating expenses were $11.7 billion for the quarter and $22.1 billion for the year to date. The quarterly non-economic expenses increased from the prior year to $5.6 billion, with the increase driven by transactions-based expenses tied to buoyant activity levels, particularly in equities. The firm's effective tax rate for the year to date was 18.5%, and for the full year, they continue to expect an effective tax rate of approximately 20%.
Q：What were the results of the firm's most recent CCAR test, and what are their views on the proposed changes to the regulatory framework?
A：The firm was pleased with the results of its recent CCAR test, which demonstrated the strength of its balance sheet under a severely adverse economic scenario. The stress capital buffer of 3.4% is effective through September 2027. They are encouraged by the direction of the proposed changes to the regulatory framework, particularly efforts to enhance transparency and improve stress test calibration, and look forward to swift progress towards Basel II finalization.
Q：What were the firm's capital management priorities, and what recent actions did they take?
A：The firm's capital management priorities remain unchanged, focusing on investing in the business for attractive returns, sustainably growing the dividend, and returning excess capital to shareholders through buybacks. Recent actions include an increase to the quarterly common stock dividend to $5 per share and the repurchase of $4 billion of the firm's common stock in the past quarter.
Q：How did the firm allocate its capital, particularly in the context of buybacks and client investments?
A：The firm is extremely disciplined about looking for places to invest in the client franchise and generates a lot of capital. They aim to allocate capital towards supporting their clients and their activities to produce benefits for clients and accretive returns for shareholders. Over the last 6 to 12 months, they saw a real opportunity in their business in Asia and have benefited from it. They are nimble in deploying capital and, when they don't see opportunities to deploy it, they get back to shareholders as quickly as possible.
Q：What is the perceived durability of the AI CapEx cycle and how does it relate to Goldman Sachs' earnings outlook?
A：The durability of the AI CapEx cycle is considered to be very significant and in the early innings of a long build-out cycle. Goldman Sachs views this as an opportunity for long-term growth and is investing accordingly. The firm expects to continue investing in this cycle, which is correlated to the firm's earnings momentum and highlights the breadth, depth, and diversity of the firm's franchise. The management team is focused on growth over the next three to five years rather than just the next quarter.
Q：How significant is the impact of the Asia hyperscale trade on Goldman Sachs' Equities business, and what does the recent correction imply?
A：The impact of the Asia hyperscale trade on Goldman Sachs' Equities business is significant, with activities across cash and derivative markets being driven by client demand to manage their portfolios and returns. The recent correction, however, is not seen as a cause for concern, and the firm is confident in sustaining its investments in the Equities business.
Q：What are the constraints on growing the financing business and what is Goldman Sachs' willingness to lower its SLR ratio?
A：Goldman Sachs faces constraints on growing the financing business due to various factors, such as capital requirements and balance sheet management. The firm's SLR ratio is now the lowest among peers, and it is dynamic and subject to management's assessment. The firm is willing to manage this ratio lower to facilitate client activity but will also look at opportunities and make choices related to resource allocation to drive franchise performance.
Q：How much have expenses and efficiency gains been a result of market strength versus structural cost changes within Goldman Sachs?
A：Expenses and efficiency gains have been a result of both market strength and structural cost changes within Goldman Sachs. The firm has developed a significant amount of operating leverage which has been driven by disciplined growth in expenses relative to revenue growth. Investments in AI and firm process rewiring are ongoing, and the firm's efforts to scale and build more resilient, automated platforms are contributing to these gains. However, the firm has not undergone any structural changes in its expense base.
Q：What is the potential revenue impact of additional merger fees generated by Goldman Sachs' advising and announced deals?
A：The potential revenue impact of additional merger fees from advising and announced deals is not quantified by a specific percentage. The firm does not disclose an exact percentage but emphasizes the powerful effect these advisory relationships have on the firm's franchise. The revenue impact from this advisory work spills over into other areas such as financing, risk management, and execution, bolstering the firm's overall performance.
Q：What factors are contributing to the firm's financing and asset management success?
A：The firm's success in financing and asset management is attributed to its early integration in discussions, structural command of the market, and the 1GS approach which spills over into asset wealth management. This is achieved by giving management and clients the opportunity to invest in various assets, obtaining earlier looks at investments, and leveraging trusted relationships to provide coordinated services across the firm.
Q：How is the firm managing the high demand for financing, and what are the implications?
A：The firm is managing the high demand for financing by prioritizing the deployment of capital into the deals book and focusing on different types of financing such as M&A and event-driven demand. However, there's a mismatch between demand and the firm's capacity to provide financing, resulting in more demand than the firm is willing to engage with. This situation reflects the middle of an AI CapEx super cycle with demands on financing across various regions and industries.
Q：What factors contributed to the recent sequential growth in the firm's loans?
A：The sequential growth in the firm's loans is attributed to the deployment of capital into the deals book and event-driven financing, as well as growth in six financing which is connected to the firm's prior efforts in growing this area while maintaining discipline.
Q：How is the firm's origination capability impacting its asset and wealth management business?
A：The firm's origination capability is impacting its asset and wealth management business by originating and structuring high-quality investments in the fixed income space, which are then routed to asset and wealth management clients. This strategy helps clients gain exposure to investment products and contributes to the growth of the asset and wealth management business.
Q：What caused the decrease in the company's CP ratio, and how should one manage the CT1 ratio going forward?
A：The decrease in the company's CP ratio is due to lower market risk RWA variances and certain credit RWA variances, while the earnings generation relative to dividends and buybacks contribute to the balance. Going forward, the company aims to maintain an operating model within a range of plus 50 to 100 basis points, with a 150 basis point cushion for future client-based deployment. This cushion will be used for client-related activities and share buybacks, ensuring a managed approach to the CT1 ratio.
Q：What are the expectations for future headcount, and how is technology affecting productivity?
A：Future headcount is not expected to be structurally changed as a result of efficiency efforts such as AI and OneGold 3.0. The focus is on enhancing the productivity of world-class people to serve clients better. Technology is allowing people to be more productive without the need to replace others in the ordinary course. Therefore, there is an emphasis on investing in new technology to utilize it effectively for the benefit of people and clients.
Q：What is driving the increase in the firm's backlog, and how is it related to strategic M&A?
A：The increase in the firm's backlog is primarily driven by strategic M&A, reflecting a market environment where companies are focused on scale advantage and enhancing competitive positions. The regulatory environment also allows for inorganic growth opportunities, leading to more strategic activity. Leverage finance activity contributes to this growth, with a shift towards recapitalization and refinancing. While there is more dialogue with sponsors, actual accelerated activity has not yet occurred but is seen as a potential upside in these flows.
Q：What is the strategy for capital raising and deployment in the investment firm?
A：The investment firm aims to raise and deploy capital continuously over time with a target of 75 to 100 billion of annual fundraising. The team is set up to sustain this growth and make strategic decisions based on investment opportunities.
Q：What is the expected impact of incentive fees on the firm's income?
A：The firm expects materially higher incentive fees in the third and fourth quarters, related to specific transactions that are known and out there. This is expected to result in an unusually higher medium-term run rate contribution from incentive fees.
Q：What are the key drivers behind the strong fundraising in the recent quarter?
A：The strong fundraising is attributed to both the firm's strategy of using scale and capabilities to broaden platforms, resulting in customized solutions for big institutions, and the firm's expertise and differentiation in certain areas like private credit, which has gained momentum with institutional investors.
Q：How does the firm plan to use AI technology to enhance client services?
A：The firm plans to harness the combined capability of its talent, engineering, and highly differentiated data to integrate new technologies. This will enable the provision of better, faster, and more insightful advice to clients, continuing to make Goldman Sachs a preferred partner for significant transactions.
Q：How significant is the impact of AI and technology on current business performance compared to historical periods?
A：The impact of AI and technology on current business performance is very significant in terms of absolute dollars. While volumes in the market for I (presumably investment) activity are at or below the 10-year average, the firm's earnings are more diverse and sustainable compared to the last significant investment cycle, indicating that the current cycle's impact will likely follow a similar pattern of acceleration and recalibration.
Q：What is the contribution of One Goldman Sachs to the firm's success in wealth management referrals?
A：One Goldman Sachs has contributed to the firm's success in wealth management referrals, with wallet share improvements over the last 6.5 years, particularly focusing on second-tier clients. Improving market share with these clients has been a key driver for the firm's relative wallet performance.
Q：What approach does the firm take to identify areas for improvement and enhance client relationships?
A：The firm conducts a disciplined process across investment banking and financial advisory services to identify areas where it falls short, focusing on where it can do better and improve client relationships.
Q：How is the firm's market share discipline contributing to its performance?
A：The firm's market share discipline has been very constructive for its performance over an extended period, and the firm plans to continue being disciplined in assessing its weaknesses and opportunities for improvement.
Q：What is the ideal business mix between global banking and markets and asset wealth management, according to the firm?
A：The ideal business mix would slightly differ from the current situation, but the firm is content with the growth of global banking and markets and sees a lot of durability in its scale. However, there is also a lot of opportunity to grow asset wealth management.
Q：What is the firm's strategy for potential growth in its asset wealth management business?
A：The firm's strategy for potential growth in its asset wealth management business includes acquisitions that have allowed it to accelerate growth and continued pursuit of interesting opportunities that will further enhance the franchise. It will remain disciplined, with a high bar for organic growth, and consider inorganic opportunities when they arise.
Q：What areas does the firm believe could have seen more investment earlier, and what are they doing about it now?
A：The firm believes there are areas where it could have invested more sooner, and it is now investing more in those areas to accelerate growth. One such area is the ultra-high net worth, high-touch wealth business, where the growth of very wealthy individuals with investable assets is expanding rapidly, and the firm is investing more to scale with these people.
Q：How does the firm plan to scale its presence in the ultra-high net worth wealth business?
A：The firm plans to scale its presence in the ultra-high net worth wealth business by investing in the people who represent the client base, which will allow the firm to hold a larger client footprint and serve high net worth individuals more effectively.
Q：What is the firm's long-term growth strategy and focus?
A：The firm's long-term growth strategy is focused on running the firm with discipline, constantly looking at areas for investment over 3, 5, or 7 years, not just quarterly. It sees many opportunities to grow the firm, earnings, and the franchise over the next 3, 5, or 7 years.
