A：I graduated from the finance department of Wuhan university with a bachelor's degree and a master's degree. after graduation in 2016, I entered the securities industry to engage in buyer's research. after going through securities firm self-management, insurance fund and private placement, I joined penghua fund in 2020 to be responsible for macro strategy and financial industry research, and gradually expanded the coverage of upstream industries, including nonferrous metals, chemical industry, steel, etc. From my personal research experience, two important characteristics have shaped my investment philosophy: one is to have both a bottom-up industry research perspective and a top-down perspective of macro strategy, with a market-wide industry comparison foundation and cyclical thinking; The second is to work in an institution that focuses on absolute returns for a long time and attaches great importance to risk control.

A：My investment framework is based on three ideas. First, the starting point for any asset pricing is the asset pricing model, whether it is stocks or bonds, focusing on the molecular cash flow and denominator discount rate, with a particular focus on the risk premium in the discount rate. Second, the essence of stock investing is to buy management to create shareholder profitability and focus more on reinvesting in additional returns. Finally, in the process of stock investment, asset ranking and industry comparison are very important. Following the principle of "short-term is a voting device and long-term is a weighing device", we look for assets with improved profit expansion cycle or future growth visibility, and add valuation factors after industry comparison and asset ranking to give priority to the allocation of profit expansion assets to realize Davis double-click. When such assets are not found, they are allocated to stable ROE or high-dividend assets. In volatile markets, retracement risk is controlled through structural flexibility and position management.

A：Expanding the circle of competence and grasping the boundary of competence are not contradictory, but a steady process. When expanding the circle of competence, we will try to invest in new industries with small positions first, accumulate cognition through practice, and control the negative impact. In risk management, the use of "left take profit, right stop loss, flexible structure, position management" strategy. Among them, the left side of the take profit refers to the gradual realization of gains when approaching the target price; the right side of the stop loss is to set a loss range limit, to avoid invalid positions loss of portfolio value. Structural flexibility means avoiding significant negative beta shocks in the allocation structure and adjusting the industry allocation according to the macro situation; position management is to reduce the position waiting opportunity when there is a lack of cost-effective assets.

A：(Actual examples of specific industry comparisons and cross-track rotation are not given here, but it is mentioned that this is the key to the portfolio's outperformance and will need to be shared in detail later.)

A：At that time, I allocated a number of high-dividend assets, including utilities, big finance, some consumer industries and pharmaceuticals, which were partial to the must-have consumer attribute. Market funds are extremely chasing dividend assets, resulting in unattractive dividend yields for many stocks, and are beginning to expect stock dividend yields to continue to rise or even exceed annual profits. This reflects the market's extreme pessimism about corporate profits, and this line of thinking is not in line with universal business logic. At the same time, the ability of dividend assets to stabilize dividends under economic pressure has been falsified, such as must-have consumer goods showing optional attributes, low earnings expectations, and financing while dividends are on the side of thermal power, coal and banks.

A：At that time, the industry trend driven by AI capital expenditure was clear, such as cloud testing hardware, SOC chips and other companies under the new product cycle profit significantly increased; Lithium battery industry has also begun to show strong profit elasticity. The profit cycle and valuation cost performance of these industries are very high. Therefore, I have tilted the investment and research experience and portfolio allocation focus to these industries.

A：In the past two years, the non-ferrous sector has been allocated more, the main logic is that the supply side has reduced production due to declining grades, environmental protection policies, capital goods inflation and other issues, the postponement of new projects has led to supply contraction, while the demand side has benefited from overseas industrialization and emerging industries to maintain rapid growth, and the accumulation of supply and demand contradictions has brought about price increases. In addition, some mining companies are on the left side of the cost curve and have achieved volume increases through expansion and integration, making the underlying stocks perform well. However, at the beginning of the year, the non-ferrous sector was suppressed in financial and dual industrial attributes as price trends were fully reflected in market capitalization, as well as the judgment that the dollar was likely to weaken and the global industrial cycle was not fully upward.

A：There are three prerequisites for stock selection: first, stock selection in the sector selected in the industry comparison. On this basis, I will pay attention to three aspects: the company should be at the key node of the industrial chain, and changes in technology path and industrial policy will not greatly reduce the value of assets; the company has competitive advantage barriers, including business model advantages, customer stickiness and excess return ability; the management has the ability of efficient capital allocation, which can maximize the efficiency of capital utilization.

A：This is not simply a weight problem, but the frequency of intervention in investment decisions. Daily research of individual stock companies is the daily work of fund managers, not only to provide portfolio targets, but also to perceive the basis of industry and macro changes. Industry comparisons are more of a monthly, quarterly or even longer-term dimension, relying on micro-evidence accumulation and industry cycle change judgments. Macro research is relatively low-frequency, focusing on important broad asset price inflection points, long-term changes in the economic cycle and changes in the structure of the economy, although the frequency is low, but the weight is not necessarily low, critical moments can play a key role. High-frequency economic data is usually not of particular concern.

A：I am more optimistic about the-share market. From a macro perspective, the domestic and international environment is relatively stable, and the domestic economy is in the stage of finding the bottom of traditional kinetic energy and the development of emerging kinetic energy. Although the overall performance is flat, after structural adjustment and risk release, the balance sheet of micro entities has stabilized, and the policy has responded to short-term economic fluctuations more accurately and effectively, giving market confidence. Overseas, geo-risks have cooled and inflation expectations have fallen, creating a soft landing and liquidity-driven environment, with stable overall fundamentals and structural upward earnings, providing greater opportunities for equity markets.

A：The current stock-bond yield spread is at a historical high, superimposed on the profit repair space, stocks have a systematic advantage over bonds. In addition, the ratio of new deposits to M2 continued to decline, superimposed on the maturity peak of residential deposits and policies to guide medium-and long-term funds into the market, making the capital level favorable to the stock market. The overall A- share market is optimistic, but the structural characteristics are obvious, and the profit side is more differentiated. Pay attention to three directions: first, AI hardware, market demand is constantly improving, and technology iteration is accelerating, including overseas chain and domestic chain; The second is the sea chain. Under the background of trade friction, the share of domestic export enterprises has increased and prices have been raised, reflecting the global competitive advantage of the midstream manufacturing industry. Third, the non-bank financial sector has historically had obvious excess returns in the weak stage of strong stocks and bonds, and is in the upward profit period from a long-making stage.

A：At present, the AI industry chain has three important prosperity characteristics: first, the entire North American science and technology industry chain has a high prosperity and good performance, model manufacturers have formed a closed loop, and demand and profits have continued to improve; Second, there is a contradiction between the nonlinear growth of computing power demand and the linear expansion of the supply chain. The prosperity is transmitted to a wider range of fields, and the domestic industrial chain has also begun to increase its share. Third, AI penetration rate is low, with only 8% of enterprises in North America, the actual lifting space is large. As for the AI bubble problem, although the market has repeatedly worried about the delay of construction caused by the bottleneck of the supply chain and the increase of storage price to restrain the demand for expenditure, the industrial chain itself will seek solutions, and the long-term prosperity of the AI industrial chain will be extrapolated, with obvious horizontal expansion. Subsequent investment judgment needs to pay attention to whether the improvement of model capability can be converted into commercial value.

A：My overall response strategy is to be more focused in the AI sector and enhance the anti-vulnerability of the portfolio. Specifically, it includes two aspects: first, to invest in high-quality node-based companies with verified supply chain delivery capability and innovation platform capability, which have balanced performance in terms of performance growth, cashability and valuation; The second is to pay attention to the direction of new technologies, especially the role of hardware in model cost reduction and efficiency enhancement and system optimization, such as incremental links such as optical communication and CPU, which play a key role in the operation of AI business logic, and these upstream links are expected to drive greater upward elasticity in overall earnings due to the inflationary effect.

A：The semiconductor sector has been dominated by strong cycles and expected growth in the past, but with the AI of global resonance driving demand growth and the global semiconductor industry chain boom and duration beyond any cycle in history, investment attributes have changed significantly. Now the industrial chain profit ceiling range continues to spread, domestic semiconductors in the global share of the increase, while domestic computing penetration accelerated, technical capacity is also improving, capacity bottlenecks are opening. Therefore, the domestic substitution range accelerated, sea orders increased, industrial chain price increases, technological breakthroughs, performance support gradually strengthened, valuation fluctuations are expected to decline, the entire industry into the performance of cash and long-term space to open the dual-driven stage.

A：The question of the Strait of Hormuz may not be the main contradiction. In terms of broad asset class performance, real interest rates rose more than nominal interest rates, inflation expectations fell, the dollar index rose but the yuan was relatively strong, oil and gold prices fell, and stocks in different sectors diverged. The current structural divergence in the market reflects a K-shaped divergence in the return on capital, rather than the direct suppression of aggregate demand by oil prices, inflation and interest rate hike expectations. AI-related industries have led to higher real interest rates, which has continued to suppress the business climate of most industries.

A：Although insurance and brokerage firms are in an upward earnings cycle, the reasons for the weak performance of the sector may include the impact of transactional factors and the generally weaker money-making effect under market differentiation, resulting in limited earnings elasticity across the sector. For the insurance sector, the debt side has seen high growth for four consecutive years, reflecting that it has become an important option for the allocation of the underlying wealth of residents, while solvency has improved, channel reform has shown results, and profitability and quality have improved significantly. Brokers, on the other hand, due to the rebound in market volume and performance, the adjustment of the classification rating system has prompted brokerages to pay more attention to equity asset allocation and ROE. There is differentiation within the non-bank financial sector, with the non-AI sector ranking higher.

A：For a small number of investors with expertise and sufficient energy, they can pursue returns by investing in segmented ETFs and track-based active equity products while controlling overall risk. For most investors, it is recommended to choose a full-market fund and select fund manager products with stable performance and high long-term Sharpe ratios in different environments for long-term holdings.