AI时代“新石油”!新能源电池潜力有多大?
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会议摘要
Huabao Fund Hu Yijiang and senior analyst Ma Wanyu live discussion of new energy batteries and energy storage industry, pointed out that energy storage batteries as an important growth point, benefiting from domestic policy support and strong demand in overseas markets. China is a global leader in this field and offers high-quality investment opportunities. The National Securities New Energy Battery Index and related ETFs are recommended as investment tools, emphasizing the uniqueness of their focus on the energy storage track, effectively capturing industry opportunities and diversifying risks.
会议速览
The dialogue focused on investment opportunities for new energy batteries and energy storage batteries, and detailed the composition of the battery industry chain, including upstream electrochemical materials, midstream cell manufacturing and downstream end applications. The characteristics of energy storage battery as a long industrial chain and its investment value in the field of new energy are emphasized.
The dialogue revealed the incremental changes in the new energy battery market, pointing out that from 2020 to 2025, vehicle power batteries will grow tenfold, while energy storage batteries will grow from a small base to 20 times, accounting for nearly 35% in 2026, becoming a new driving force for the growth of new energy batteries.
Domestic energy storage industry growth is mainly driven by policy, 25 years 136 and 114, respectively, to promote the new energy feed-in tariff marketization and new energy storage installation guarantee, improve the project yield. Overseas, the incremental demand and highlights were discussed, but the specifics were not detailed.
The overseas energy storage market is in strong demand due to geopolitical conflicts and explosive growth of data centers. The unstable characteristics of data center electricity consumption highlight the key role of energy storage system in adjusting load and ensuring the stable operation of AI computing power. It is estimated that by 2030, the electricity consumption of data centers in the United States will account for 22% of the total electricity consumption, and the energy storage demand is huge.
China's energy storage industry occupies an absolute leading position in the global market. In 2025, energy storage battery shipments are expected to reach 350 gigawatt hours, an increase of 110 year-on-year, accounting for 64% of the global share. China's new energy storage installed capacity continues to grow, and the cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 370 GW in 2030, far exceeding the current forecast. Policy, industrial chain improvement and downstream demand are the key factors to promote the development of China's energy storage industry.
The dialogue discussed in depth the strong growth momentum shown by China's energy storage industry with policy support, especially the significant increase in installed capacity, which is expected to jump from 80-90GWh in 2024 to 180GWh in 2025 and 300GWh in 2026. The analysis pointed out that policies such as No. 136 and No. 114 not only promoted the rapid development of the industry in the short term, but also set a framework for long-term stable income and enhanced investor confidence. In addition, despite the fierce competition in the industry, the battery manufacturing process is regarded as a more profitable node due to its technology-intensive characteristics. Overall, China's energy storage industry is ushering in unprecedented development opportunities, the market potential is huge.
The discussion focused on energy storage batteries as a high-quality investment direction in the field of new energy, and introduced a national securities new energy battery index focusing on upstream and downstream enterprises of energy storage batteries. Its characteristics include high lithium content, weight concentration on lithium batteries, inverters and power equipment, and the top ten constituent stocks accounting for nearly 60%, showing the comprehensive coverage and investment value of the index in the field of energy storage batteries.
The dialogue focused on the market performance and investment value of the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, pointing out that its top 10 weight concentration is as high as 58%, far exceeding similar indices. From 2020 to 2024, the index has gained 258.59 per cent and an annualized gain of 23.17 per cent, demonstrating strong growth potential and stability. At present, the valuation of core companies such as Ningde Times has been adjusted to a reasonable range, and future performance forecasts are optimistic, providing investors with attractive opportunities.
The dialogue discussed the global recognition and valuation premium of leading companies in the energy storage industry, such as the Ningde era, and pointed out the opportunities for A- share investors to invest in the energy storage track at a reasonable valuation. This paper analyzes the current situation of the energy storage industry maintaining a high growth rate after valuation digestion, emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of investment under the leading position of policy support and global manufacturing industry, and recommends paying attention to dividend products with good matching of dividend yield and valuation.
This paper discusses the efficient ways to invest in the energy storage industry through new energy battery ETFs, including the advantages of professional research, risk diversification, transparent position, flexible trading and low rates, and recommends an upcoming ETF product focusing on the energy storage track, which is suitable for investors who want to seize industry opportunities while avoiding single stock risks.
要点回答
Q:If we look at the battery sector, new energy batteries, energy storage batteries, how do we simply understand it?
A:Well, in terms of the battery sector, it is mainly divided into two categories: power batteries and energy storage batteries. In the field of energy storage batteries, it is a long industrial chain, starting from battery cell manufacturing, through module and PACK assembly, to PCS converter, BMS power management system, EMS energy management system and other links, and finally forming energy storage system. The upstream involves electrochemical materials, including the four main materials of positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and separator, as well as various auxiliary materials and additives.
Q:In the past few years, the most closely related to life and the direction of high growth in the battery track is new energy vehicles. What is the main source of battery increment now?
A:The new energy battery increment was mainly contributed by the new energy vehicle power battery in the early stage, but the current increment has changed. The latest increase comes from energy storage batteries, especially in global lithium battery shipments, which have grown from single digits in 20 years to 28% in 25 years, with shipments reaching 650G watt-hours.
Q:Judging in 2026, the proportion of energy storage batteries may be close to what?
A:We judge that in 2026, the proportion of energy storage batteries may be close to 35%, so energy storage batteries are an important driving force for the growth of new energy batteries as a whole.
Q:Where does the current growth of energy storage batteries at home and abroad come from?
A:The momentum for the growth of energy storage batteries at home and abroad has been strengthened. On the domestic side, there are strong policies. For example, Document No. 136 issued in February 2025 requires the marketization of new energy feed-in electricity prices, and Document No. 114 issued in January this year defines the electricity price mechanism for power generation side capacity. These policies provide the possibility of high yield for energy storage projects and promote the rapid development of new installations for independent energy storage. On the foreign side, events such as the Iran war have led to an energy security crisis and stimulated the demand for overseas energy storage installations. At the same time, the explosive growth of data centers also has a huge demand for energy storage, especially in the US market. The installed energy storage capacity may reach about 80G watt-hours in 2026, of which about 30 to 40G watt-hours are related to data centers.
Q:On the energy storage track, from the perspective of the data center, how much electricity does it need, and what role does the energy storage system play in it?
A:Data center power consumption is very high, according to third-party statistics, the U.S. data center new computing power demand brought about by the annual compound growth of 4% to 5%, by 2030 will reach about more than 1200 T watt-hours, accounting for 22% of the total U.S. electricity consumption, equivalent to half of the U.S. residential electricity consumption. The role of energy storage for data centers is to solve the contradiction between power consumption and power generation, to smooth the instability of new energy power generation and the high volatility load of data centers through energy storage, and to ensure the stable and economical operation of AI computing power.
Q:What is China's development level and manufacturing level in the field of energy storage in the world?
A:China is absolutely ahead of the world in the field of energy storage. Whether it is energy storage batteries, power batteries or photovoltaic wind power and other new energy industry chain, China occupies a dominant position in the global market. For example, in 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments reached more than 350 gigawatt hours, a year-on-year increase of more than 1 times, accounting for 64% of the global market share. In addition, China has built and put into operation the new energy storage installed capacity of more than 100G watts, and is expected in the next five years the new energy storage cumulative installed capacity will exceed 370G watt-hours.
Q:Is there any policy support and specific data to prove the improvement of China's energy storage manufacturing capacity?
A:The improvement of China's energy storage manufacturing capacity has benefited from sound policy support, such as documents No. 136 and No. 114, from the market-based pricing mechanism to the requirements for the construction of basic energy storage facilities in various provinces. Although the amount of money earned is not the core factor of whether the project can take shape, for large energy companies, especially central state-owned enterprises, they pay more attention to the certainty of the project, that is, under certain conditions, they can stably obtain a yield of 5% to 6%, rather than the uncertainty of high risk and high return. The certainty of the energy storage industry provides an important guarantee for its long-term investment.
Q:What is the impact of No. 136 and No. 114 on the new energy industry?
A:The two documents frame the policy direction of the new energy industry in the next three to ten years and the expected rate of return range, and provide stimulus policies according to the specific conditions of different provinces and cities. For example, in Inner Mongolia, local policies that are more conducive to promoting the development of the industry have been formulated on the basis of national policies, which may achieve a higher rate of return in the short term, although it is difficult to maintain in the long term, but it is positive and effective as a starting and stimulus measure.
Q:What is the growth trend of the domestic energy storage industry?
A:According to the data forecast, the installed capacity of domestic energy storage will reach about 180 gigawatt hours in 2025, doubling from 80 to 90 gigawatt hours in 2024, and the growth rate is accelerating. It is expected that the domestic installed level will reach about 300 gigawatt hours in 2026, showing a growth index of several decades.
Q:Will the energy storage industry experience extremely low profit margins, as extremely competitive as China's manufacturing industry?
A:Although the competition in the energy storage industry is fierce, it may be relatively better than other links due to the high technical strength and profit margin potential of battery enterprises, which are the key nodes in the industrial chain. At the same time, there are many high-quality investment opportunities in the entire industry chain, including raw material suppliers such as anode, anode, diaphragm, electrolyte, battery assembly, system integration and other links.
Q:For investors who want to invest in energy storage batteries, what are the recommended index tools?
A:It is recommended that investors pay attention to the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, which is a pure index product that focuses on investing in energy storage battery tracks. The top three weights of the index are enterprises in the fields of lithium battery, inverter and power equipment, and the content of lithium battery is high, close to 40%, ranking first among all battery indexes. Through this index, investors can fully cover the energy storage battery upstream and downstream related high-quality enterprises, to achieve accurate investment in this field.
Q:What are the characteristics of the industry distribution and market capitalization distribution of the National Securities New Energy Battery Index?
A:In the new energy battery index, the lithium-electric track accounted for a higher proportion, reaching 34%, 27% and 22%. The concentration of its top 10 heavyweights is 58%, about 10-20 percentage points higher than other similar indices, reflecting the index's more concentrated weighting of the energy storage track. In addition, the concentration of the index in the energy storage industry is relatively high.
Q:Judging from the performance of the past year and years, does the National Securities New Energy Battery Index have an advantage?
A:The National New Energy Battery Index has risen by 258.59 per cent over the past five years (end-April 2020 to end-April 2024), yielding an annualized return of 23.17 per cent, outperforming the 13-19 per cent annualized return of other indices over the same period. Even when the market fell in 2022, the index fell less than the broader market, while it performed steadily and reliably in other years, reflecting a better growth advantage.
Q:What is the current valuation of the Truman Circuit (I. e., the New Energy Battery Index)?
A:Since 2022, the new energy sector has experienced a major correction, during which the performance of leading companies mostly exceeded market expectations, such as Ningde era actual profits exceeded the 2021 forecast. After the industrial adjustment period, the valuation of these enterprises has been moved down accordingly. At present, the valuation of core targets such as Ningde era is less than 20 times, and sunshine power supply and easy lithium energy are also in their early 20 times. Most index constituent stocks are in a relatively reasonable valuation range. With the improvement of future prosperity, the performance forecast may be further revised, making the current valuation more attractive.
Q:Why is everyone so concerned about the new energy industry?
A:The new energy industry is not only one of the world's leading "new business cards", it has a complete and huge industrial chain and has a significant influence on the national economy and people's livelihood. At the same time, the industry is in a stage of rapid growth, and the valuation of key leading companies matches the growth rate, representing the highest level of productivity in the world, so it is an investment direction worthy of attention.
Q:How did the share price perform after the Ningde era listed on the Hong Kong stock market, and what logic is reflected behind this?
A:Ningde era's stock price rose rapidly after the listing of Hong Kong shares, and its valuation was higher than that of A- shares, which shows that investors in the global market have a higher recognition of Ningde era than the domestic A- share market. The valuation premium once reached 50%, which means that overseas markets believe that the value of Ningde era is undervalued by 50%, but now it is maintained at a premium level of 30 to 40%, reflecting that Ningde era is widely recognized as a leading enterprise in the world.
Q:For A- share investors, what are the investment opportunities in the energy storage industry, especially in leading companies such as the Ningde era? For ordinary investors, how to invest in the energy storage track efficiently and conveniently?
A:This is a great opportunity for A- share investors. Since it is difficult for overseas investors to directly invest in A- share zero-investment companies, they will choose to buy through Hong Kong stocks at a high premium. On the other hand, A- share investors can invest in the energy storage track from the perspective of relatively cheap and reasonable valuation, especially the industry leader like Ningde era. After a certain period of valuation digestion, its valuation is more reasonable. At the same time, it is a very good investment choice from the perspective of cost performance. Investors are advised to choose the New Energy Battery ETF as a way to invest in the energy storage track. ETFs are built by professionals, and by investing in the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, they can cover 50 leading stocks in the energy storage battery industry with one click, spreading risk and avoiding concentration on a single constituent. In addition, ETF trading is flexible, highly transparent and has low rates, which is suitable for real-time trading on the market, which helps to reduce investment costs and better diversify risks.
Q:How to view the valuation changes of the energy storage industry and its investment value?
A:The valuation of leading enterprises in the energy storage industry has dropped from nearly 40 to 60 times in 21 years to about 20 times now, and the long-term valuation is only 15 times. After a large valuation digestion, it now has a good matching relationship. Taking into account the domestic and foreign market demand to maintain a good state, the energy storage industry not only high growth rate, but also reasonable valuation, is a worthy of focus on the layout of the investment track.
Q:What are the characteristics of the upcoming new energy battery ETF?
A:The upcoming New Energy Battery ETF is a product of Huabao Fund's tracking of the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, which will invest in 50 core listed companies in the energy storage battery industry at one click, with transparent positions and good liquidity, suitable for investors seeking to diversify risk and facilitate trading. The ETF not only provides a convenient and efficient way to invest in energy storage tracks, but also effectively spreads investment risk and prevents the impact of shocks caused by individual stocks or events.

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