A：2026 is likely to be a turbulent year. There are two key factors affecting the overall economic and financial trend this year: one is the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; the other is the latest development of the US-Iraq war. Although there is a dawn to end the war, the attitudes of Iran and Israel are not consistent, causing the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, which will push up crude oil prices and may trigger a rise in global inflation, which in turn affects the US interest rate cut cycle.

A：If the war leads to a prolonged high level of crude oil, it will indeed push up global inflation, which in turn will affect the pace of interest rate cuts originally expected in the United States, and may even lead to the risk of a shift from interest rate cuts to interest rate hikes.

A：The Fed's interest rate cut will have two direct effects: first, loose liquidity in capital markets, increasing demand for trading and investment; second, major global assets are denominated in dollars, and the interest rate cut will weaken the dollar, thus pushing up the price of dollar-denominated assets, and vice versa. For example, recent acts of war have led to a rebound in the dollar, with significant effects on dollar-denominated assets such as gold.

A：First, people think of gold as a natural hedge. However, under certain circumstances, such as the early days of the war, gold may fall rapidly as rising inflation expectations may lead to a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts or even expectations of interest rate hikes. However, after the liquidity crisis, the price of gold will quickly repair, suitable for bottoming operations. In addition, at higher levels of crisis, some assets, including gold, may also be under undifferentiated selling pressure as liquidity dries up.

A：Gold does have safe-haven properties, but the recent market performance is not typical. The risk-averse characteristics of assets cannot be understood simply and linearly, especially when the macro environment is complex, and investment decisions may be highly biased.

A：It is suggested that investors should do a good job in asset allocation according to their own risk tolerance, do not invest too much in a certain type of assets, and pay special attention to the management of positions and risk control.

A：Severe market volatility is expected to become the norm in 2026, related to uncertainties such as the global economic cycle and the pace of Fed rate cuts.

A：Relatively reliable investment assets are gold, U.S. stocks and A- shares. Gold is bullish for a long time, but there will be large fluctuations in the short term; U.S. stocks perform better because of their defensive nature and the impact of the Middle East war; the sale of institutional funds in A- shares at a high level helps the market to be healthy, and the recent trend is strong, so it is also optimistic.

A：Gold began to rise in the fourth quarter of 2022, nearly tripling. There are three main reasons: first, the market's unanimous expectation of the start of the interest rate cut cycle. Although the interest rate hike cycle will last until July 2023, gold has responded in advance before the end of the interest rate hike cycle; second, after the interest rate cut actually landed, the real interest rate fell, prompting investors to turn to gold in pursuit of higher real returns; third, changes in the global political and economic pattern have led to a decline in the credit of the US dollar and a weakening of the US dollar, central banks have increased their gold holdings in order to protect financial and national security.

A：Gold has a variety of properties, including natural currency properties, non-credit safe-haven asset properties, zero-interest characteristics and strong anti-inflation ability. Compared with equity bonds, gold is not affected by corporate credit, default risk, exchange rate risk, etc., but does not have interest income. Despite zero interest, its scarcity and anti-inflation characteristics make it show relatively small economic cycle volatility and low correlation with stocks and bonds in asset allocation, which is an important choice for building an effective portfolio.

A：The rise and fall of the price of gold is not mainly determined by the price itself, but by its scarcity and market demand. As long as market demand persists, especially for hedging against financial risks, the price of gold will not fall easily. In addition, gold has a lower correlation with equity bonds and is more suitable for inclusion in asset allocation to diversify risk. Whether the price of gold is high or not needs to be judged in the light of market supply and demand and the economic environment. At present, due to a variety of factors to support the gold market, including the global central bank continued to increase holdings, geopolitical friction brought about by the increase in safe-haven demand, gold prices are on an upward trend. Future trends are difficult to predict accurately, but their anti-inflation and low correlation make them valuable in long-term investments.

A：We usually compare the price of gold with other broad asset classes, such as gold with silver, stocks, etc. However, due to changes in factors such as the central bank's continued purchase of gold and the expectation of interest rate cuts in recent years, the credibility of some traditional comparison methods is declining.

A：The future price trend of gold may be influenced by three endogenous factors: central bank gold purchases, interest rate cut cycles and geopolitical risks. Among them, the change in the pace of interest rate cuts will have a greater impact on the price of gold in the short term; while the central bank's continued purchases and geopolitical risks are relatively stable and long-term.

A：The uncertainty in 2026 lies mainly in the change in the pace of short-term interest rate cuts. Although it is still in a stable era, local risks may have a short-term impact on gold prices. Historically, gold's big bull markets have tended to occur during periods of economic prosperity and more currency overshoot, rather than in troubled times.

A：In the past two years, in addition to gold, silver, non-ferrous and other commodities have also shown eye-catching gains. After gold rises, money spills over to other assets such as colored. However, these varieties are volatile and not suitable for all investors. For individual investors, it is recommended to focus on large varieties such as gold, crude oil, copper and agricultural products to avoid the high volatility risk of tail varieties.

A：Gold is the most convenient way to invest in commodities, and direct investment in gold ETFs is recommended because its underlying asset is spot gold on the Gold Exchange, which is safe, reliable and easy to trade. For investors with other commodity investment needs, due to the small number of direct investment vehicles, they need to be cautious about the liquidity problems and risks of small varieties.

A：The advantage of gold ETFs is that their transaction costs are extremely low and almost negligible, while buying spot gold will face higher costs such as processing fees and handling fees. In addition, the bid-ask spread of bank paper gold products is relatively high, compared to the lower cost of gold ETFs.

A：There are such as bucket-breaking ETFs, non-ferrous futures ETFs and energy and chemical ETFs in the market, which track the corresponding futures contracts, although the underlying is less, but the appropriate allocation of these commodity futures ETFs is also feasible, but investors need to have a certain degree of professionalism and risk tolerance.

A：There have been risk events in investment targets such as silver, which are not suitable for all individual investors to allocate. Investors need to know the relevant information by themselves through network information, and individual investors must clearly understand the underlying asset characteristics of the investment target before investing, such as the rise and fall limit rules, the difference between the settlement price and the closing price, etc., so as to avoid investment losses due to unfamiliarity with the product characteristics.

A：Non-professional investors should do what they can when constructing commodity investment portfolios. If the degree of professionalism is low, only gold should be allocated first; if the degree of professionalism is high, other commodity futures ETFs such as non-ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and soybean meal can be included. In the investment portfolio, gold accounts for the majority, and other varieties are matched to achieve decentralized allocation. At the same time, it is recommended to allocate about 15% of the commodity portfolio in the overall portfolio, but the specific proportion should be adjusted according to individual risk tolerance and asset allocation needs.

A：It is recommended to buy gold on dips in the investment portfolio, especially when gold is falling rapidly. Due to its strong regression, institutional investors will increase their positions at the bottom. This is a better time to increase their positions. Empirically, when the price of gold falls by about 10%, it is suitable to increase positions. If it can quickly fall by 20%, it is a good opportunity to grab funds.

A：If the central bank continues to buy gold and the monthly gold reserve data is rising, it is appropriate to continue to increase the gold allocation. Once the central bank stops buying gold in the short term, investors can temporarily stop increasing their holdings and determine subsequent operations by observing market trends. The central bank's gold purchase signal is relatively reliable and can be used as an investment reference.

A：Large financial institutions are usually more reliable in their expectations of the price of gold, and while their research is inaccurate, their forecasts for gold perform better in commodity expectations. When most major global banks are bullish on gold, individual investors can increase their gold allocations at low levels, which is usually a more reliable signal.

A：Individual investors should pay close attention to macroeconomic signals, such as whether central banks are still buying gold, the forecasts of large financial institutions on gold prices, and various factors affecting gold (such as the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve). In addition, we should pay attention to the fluctuation of gold price, open or increase positions at low positions, and pay attention to controlling the investment ratio, avoid chasing high, and use the way of buying on low and selling on high to carry out band trading to improve the efficiency of income. If you don't have the ability to trade on a swing, a long-term allocation hold is also a good option.

A：The risks of gold investment include not to allocate too much to prevent decision-making difficulties at critical moments, not to chase high, but to take the opposite operation when the market fluctuates, that is, to buy when the plunge, and gradually reduce the position when the surge. At the same time, we should pay attention to the correlation between different assets, such as the fluctuation of silver market may affect the performance of gold, so we need to be flexible in the operation.

A：Investment is a profession that needs to be learned, and investors should not rush to invest with just one piece of news. It is recommended that investors first ensure that they do not lose money quickly, gain experience through diversification, and grow gradually. In the investment process, we should listen to the advice of professional investors, continue to learn, lengthen the investment cycle, and combine our own risk tolerance and investment objectives to do a good job of asset allocation to reduce investment risks.