A：Guangdong Securities adheres to party building as the guiding principle, deeply studies Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and carries out six party building actions to promote high-quality development of the company. "Yueguanjia" is a comprehensive financial service brand launched by Guangdong Securities, featuring companion-style services, providing one-stop services such as wealth management and research consultation, aiming to meet customer needs.

A：Hongkou area has a rich history and cultural heritage, as well as modern vitality. The North Bund area is undergoing evolution and innovation, with a beautiful riverside promenade, making it a bustling place that blends the past with the future.

A：In the unprecedented changes of the past century, China's economy has entered a crucial stage of carrying forward the past and ushering in the future. The technological revolution is accelerating industrial restructuring, and artificial intelligence is reshaping the global competitive landscape, providing new opportunities and challenges for China's economic development.

A：Since its establishment in 2012, the China Chief Economists Forum has successfully held 12 sessions, gathering top chief economists from financial institutions to form a unique research network and influence system. It has submitted numerous internal reference reports to the central government, participated in quarterly economic situation analysis meetings at the State Council's Policy Research Office, and has become an important bridge connecting market voices with policy-making.

A：The North Bund of Hongkou in Shanghai is the venue for this forum. Its prime location connects history with the future in a bustling area. Holding the forum here not only reflects attention to regional economic development, but also signals new trends and opportunities in China's economy.

A：The year 2026 will be themed "Hoisting the banner to the end, inheriting the past and ushering in the future, building a strong country." The conference will focus on topics such as financial structure transformation, macroeconomic regulation, global order reconstruction, and improving the quality and efficiency of capital markets. Chief economists from both domestic and international sources will be invited to discuss the direction of China's high-quality economic development.

A：Guangdong Securities is committed to providing comprehensive financial services such as wealth management and research consulting, with a focus on customer-centricity, professionalism, and innovation, striving to become a trusted provider of comprehensive financial services for customers.

A：We will optimize financial services, especially increasing financial support for technological innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and small and medium-sized enterprises, in order to better serve the high-quality development of the economy and the enhancement of new productivity.

A：The number of participants who registered for this year's China Chief Economist Forum was very active, with nearly 7,000 frontline insighters and thinkers signing up to participate.

A：The theme of this year's annual meeting is "Inheriting the past and ushering in the future, building a strong country", aiming to explore forward-looking and constructive ideas for the construction of Shanghai International Financial Center and the high-quality development of China's finance.

A：Vice Mayor Chen Shuai will represent the People's Government of Hongkou District to deliver a speech at the annual meeting, introducing the development achievements of Hongkou District as the core area of Shanghai International Financial Center construction, and looking forward to guests providing suggestions and ideas around the forum theme to jointly promote regional development.

A：Hongkou District has achieved remarkable results in the integration of finance and industry, and has become the core carrier area of Shanghai's global asset management center. It has gathered numerous financial institutions, with a large scale of asset management and active financial innovation, with many national leading platforms settling here.

A：Mr. Wei Gang believes that building an independent theoretical system for China's capital market is a key issue of the times. He emphasizes the importance of rooting in the national conditions, starting from the conditions of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, deepening the research on the functions, operating characteristics, and laws of the capital market in order to promote high-quality development of the capital market and provide solid financial support for China's modernization in a Chinese way.

A：The main characteristics of the world economy in 2025 are as follows: Firstly, growth has become the norm, but the logic of growth has not yet broken. Secondly, the instability of the world economy in 2026 will mainly come from three major structural root causes, including the long-term weakening and imbalance of global growth momentum, the global financial system being in a low fault-tolerant state, and geopolitical economic logic replacing efficiency logic. The first major structural root cause is the long-term weakening and highly imbalanced global growth momentum. Developed economies are affected by population aging and declining investment returns, while emerging economies face constraints of debt and shrinking development space. This low growth trend is highly differentiated, increasing the difficulty of global system coordination. The second major structural root cause is that the global financial system is in a low fault-tolerant state. With high interest rates, high debt, and high uncertainty, the buffer space has significantly narrowed, and risks are more likely to manifest as local outbreaks and cross-market transmission. The third major structural root cause is that geopolitical economic logic is replacing efficiency logic, with some countries systematically politicizing, weaponizing, and tooling trade, investment, technology, and finance, leading the global economy from efficiency-focused to a broad security-oriented direction, forming a globalization model with higher costs, lower efficiency, and greater fragmentation.

A：China should anticipate all risks and maintain its own stable development to provide scarce stability. The five musts proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference are essentially a systematic solution to address external uncertainties with internal certainty. Providing growth certainty at the macro level by expanding domestic demand, optimizing investment structure, and nurturing new quality productivity to maintain a medium-to-high-speed, sustainable, and predictable growth path; providing supply certainty at the industry level, relying on a complete industrial system, continuous iterative technological capabilities, and large-scale application scenarios to provide stable and replicable supply capabilities globally; providing rule certainty at the institutional level through high-level institutional openness to promote regional and multilateral cooperation and reduce institutional friction costs; providing a stable anchor at the financial level by accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi, regional financial cooperation, and financial regulatory coordination, providing more diverse risk mitigation choices for southern countries globally.

A：The historical transition of China's financial structure mainly reflects the relationship between direct finance and indirect finance. In recent years, the proportion of incremental indirect finance has gradually decreased, while the proportion of incremental direct finance has increased, especially the growth of direct financing in the corporate sector. The demand for credit in the household and corporate sectors has declined significantly, while the demand for direct financing has maintained rapid growth. This reflects a deep change in the economic structure of China, with increasing demand for direct financing in high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and future industries. At the same time, government bond financing has played an important role in the rapid development of direct financing in this round.

A：The proactive fiscal policy in the future will continue and may be more proactive, especially when the international environment is becoming more unstable and uncertain, internal stability becomes particularly important. Therefore, in the next few years and even longer periods, the financing needs of the market in terms of finance will continue to remain significant and will not show obvious contraction.

A：In the years after 2026, the overall situation in traditional sectors is expected to remain stable and improve to some extent, with traditional financing demand possibly increasing compared to 2025. However, due to changes in economic structure, the real estate industry will no longer generate huge financing demands as it did in the past. Financing demand from the residential sector and property developers may rebound, but it will not return to previous levels. Credit growth may rebound in 2026, but it is still unlikely to exceed a growth rate of 7%.

A：Social financing is expected to continue growing at a rate of around 12%, with direct financing potentially reaching a growth rate of about 12%. This indicates that the financing scale driven by traditional indirect financing methods may experience a slight rebound, but it is unlikely to return to the past growth rate of 12% to 13%.

A：The development of the future capital market is crucial, as the real economy will continue to have a sustained demand for the capital market with the development of high-tech technologies, especially the growth demand for the bond market and stock market. In 2024, there will be a turning point in policies, and in 2025, the Chinese stock market will steadily recover. It is expected that this trend will continue to advance in 2026. The leading role of a new batch of high-tech industries in the stock market and unprecedented policy support for the stock market, combined with capital outflows from the real estate industry and maintaining loose liquidity, will all contribute to the future continuous improvement of the stock market.

A：The optimization of financial structure with the trend of direct financing accounting for more than half brings many benefits to the economy, including but not limited to accelerating economic structural transformation and upgrading, providing stable long-term funding support, effectively reducing financing costs, alleviating corporate debt pressures, improving fund allocation efficiency and economic and financial resilience, promoting financial market development and expanding wealth appreciation paths.

A：With the long-term and rapid development of direct financing, its growth rate will be faster than indirect financing, effectively alleviating current issues such as debt problems, leverage issues, and excessive M2 growth rate, and helping to address these problems.

A：From the perspective of economies of scale, China is currently facing a dual challenge of ice and fire. Emerging industries are developing rapidly but domestic demand is weak. Economic growth relies on the technological progress and cost reduction brought by economies of scale. The economies of scale effect in China's manufacturing industry is significant, and economies of scale in green industries and artificial intelligence also have a major impact on the global economy. For example, supporting emerging industries through government subsidies, reducing the cost of green energy, and promoting global green transformation. Subsidies and carbon border adjustment mechanisms are two models for promoting the development of green industries, and the Chinese model has shown higher success in the past 20 years.

A：I believe that the key to green transformation lies in the development of scale green emerging industries, and government support is necessary. Especially in emerging markets, carbon taxes are relatively moderate, while carbon trading markets are considered an ineffective mechanism due to large price fluctuations. In the field of artificial intelligence, despite controversies, the economies of scale and laws of AI are apparent. The ongoing discussion about whether AI is a bubble or not. Professor Philip Gain estimates the impact of AI on economic growth through extrapolation and a task-based approach. Extrapolation refers to historical revolutions such as electricity and telecommunications, predicting that AI will bring global economic growth of 0.8 to 1.3 percentage points per year by 2024. The task-based approach focuses on specific aspects of AI replacing human behavior, with an estimated growth rate of 0.08 to 1.24 percentage points.

A：The AI Economics Report released by the Central Research Institute in 2024 adopts a method similar to s m o g a, but places more emphasis on cost reduction and the future enhancement of AI capabilities. The estimate suggests that for China, AI may potentially bring an average annual economic growth of 0.8 percentage points in the future.

A：From 2019 to 2024, U.S. trade protectionism towards China led to a significant decrease in its import share from China, while the import share from Russia and other countries such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia increased. This indicates that changes in geopolitical economy have prompted our country's trading partners to shift from the West to the Belt and Road region, forming a new closed-loop external circulation model, where exports are no longer just consumer goods but rather more investment goods, forming equity rather than debt assets.

A：The fundamental reason for the current weak domestic demand is the downward financial cycle, with real estate debt issues leading to a tendency for businesses and individuals to pay off debt rather than invest in consumption. Additionally, the indirect financing model mainly used makes it difficult for banks to generate loan demand in an economic downturn. Therefore, coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are very important, as fiscal injections of external currency and adjustments to tax and transfer payment arrangements can effectively boost domestic demand.

A：The importance of injecting foreign currency into the economy lies in the fact that besides financing, bank credit can also create currency providing liquidity assets, which cannot be achieved through direct financing. Especially in the current process of transitioning from direct financing to indirect financing, fiscal expansion can ensure an increase in money supply, thereby enhancing economic vitality.

A：Currently, the social security system in China has limited impact on reducing the income incentive coefficient, especially the social security system for low-income groups is not yet perfect. Therefore, improving the disposable income of low-income groups and strengthening the social security system play a crucial role in promoting common prosperity and narrowing income gaps, which also requires active participation and adjustment of fiscal policies.

A：Currently, the net issuance of financial bonds is basically synchronized with the liquidity injection by the central bank. The net issuance of government securities matches the liquidity injection by the central bank, but there was a special situation in 2024 because the decrease in bond yields led to concerns about a financial crisis, causing the central bank to reduce its liquidity injection.

A：Ten years ago, I proposed in an article that our country's fiscal deficit rate could reach 4% or even higher, because at that time the caution line was 3%, and this 3% caution line had no economic basis, it was stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty when the European Union was formed. According to the latest data predictions, if we include factors such as local government special bonds and special national bonds, the broad deficit rate could be as high as 8% or more, so I believe that under the current circumstances, it is helpful to stabilize the economy by appropriately increasing the deficit rate.

A：The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes maintaining a necessary scale of fiscal deficit and total debt, as well as total expenditure. It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will not weaken in 2020, and the expansionary policy stance will continue to be implemented.

A：The financial sector needs to strike a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining its own health, especially since real estate has become a significant risk. If problems arise in the financial sector, it will have a serious impact on the national economy as a whole. In addition, our country relies mainly on indirect financing and pays high attention to banking risks. Therefore, the approach taken is gradual reserve requirement reductions rather than significant interest rate cuts to ensure the stability of the financial system.

A：The main reasons include that consumption and investment have low elasticity to interest rates, so lowering interest rates is difficult to effectively promote increased consumption and investment; at the same time, the narrowing of interest margins in commercial banks and a significant decrease in interest rates can increase the pressure on net interest margins, affecting the healthy operation of financial institutions. In addition, China has a large adjustment space for reserve requirement ratio, compared to the United States, China no longer has a statutory reserve requirement ratio and has room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts. Because consumption and investment in China have low elasticity to interest rates, lowering interest rates may not significantly increase consumption and investment, but may instead lead to deposits being transferred to wealth management, stock markets, and other channels rather than directly stimulating consumption and investment. Additionally, considering economic cycles, price levels, exchange rate factors, and the role of structural monetary policy tools, China has chosen to gradually and steadily lower interest rates, while optimizing credit structures through structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and weak economic sectors.

A：The key to increasing residents' income lies in optimizing income distribution, especially addressing the root cause of weak consumption. This is related to three aspects: consumption capacity, consumption willingness, and the adaptability of supply to consumption. Among them, consumption capacity is closely related to income distribution, consumption willingness is related to the reform of public resources and fiscal expenditure structure, and the adaptability of supply to consumption is related to market access and property rights protection of enterprises.

A：During the period of transition from old to new economic drivers, as technological advancements drive up productivity levels and supply capabilities significantly, the new economic drivers are mainly capital-intensive and technology-intensive rather than labor-intensive. This means that some workers are unable to integrate into the wave of technological development, leading to a differentiation in employment and income, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.

A：The basic characteristics of income distribution in China are that the income of the household sector accounts for the highest proportion among the three major sectors (households, enterprises, and government). However, in international comparison, the proportion of household income in both primary distribution and redistribution in China is at a medium-low level. The share of labor compensation in national income is relatively high in China, but it is also at a medium-slightly low level globally. The low proportion of property income is the main reason why household income distribution in China is lower than in countries such as the United States, especially the need to further increase the proportion of interest income and equity income.

A：Since 2008, the proportion of China's residents' income distribution has increased. Looking at the data from 2016, the proportion of residents' income distribution has increased by five percentage points. This is mainly due to the labor shortage of migrant workers leading to higher labor prices, as well as the peak and decline of the labor age population leading to an increase in the share of labor compensation in income distribution. The income share of China's corporate sector is relatively high internationally, which is related to China being a socialist state with state-owned enterprises playing an important role in counter-cyclical adjustments. At the same time, the proportion of dividends and financial contributions from state-owned enterprises also needs to be increased. On the other hand, the income share of the government sector is relatively low, which is related to China's implementation of policies such as tax cuts, reductions in fees, and adjustments in the real estate market leading to a decrease in relevant tax revenue.

A：It is expected that this ratio will further decrease by 2025, which indicates that reducing the macro tax burden helps alleviate the burden on residents and businesses, but lower is not always better. Because continuously reducing the level of macro taxation may limit public services and macroeconomic control capabilities, leading to a decrease in income, increased deficits due to rigid spending, or an increase in special debt. Therefore, the government's low-level fiscal situation should be viewed rationally, and a reasonable macro tax rate should be maintained.

A：Currently, the scale of personal income tax in our country is 1.4 trillion, accounting for only 8% of tax revenue. It is very low compared to the total fiscal revenue of 22 trillion. Due to the small number of individual income tax payers, only in the tens of millions, the ability to adjust the income distribution of 1.4 billion people is limited. If the tax exemption threshold continues to be raised, it may lead to fewer and fewer taxpayers, and the direct tax adjustment ability for income distribution will further decrease.

A：The ratio of direct taxes in our country is relatively low. Apart from personal income tax, property tax is also low, especially inheritance and gift taxes have not yet been officially included in the agenda. The construction of property tax is crucial for optimizing the income distribution pattern.

A：There are four basic characteristics of the distribution pattern of national income: residents have the largest share of income; residents' income is relatively low, mainly due to low property income; business income is high; government income is low.

A：The distribution pattern of national income is mainly influenced by the stage of development and resource endowment, for example, during periods of supply shortages in the past, institutional design tended to increase the supply of capital, while in the current phase of insufficient demand, it is necessary to increase the proportion of labor compensation to address demand shortages.

A：The industrial structure determines the pattern of income distribution. Labor-intensive industries such as agriculture and services will increase the proportion of residents' income, while capital-intensive industries such as manufacturing may lead to an increase in the proportion of corporate income, showing a U-shaped change.

A：There are three main types of global income distribution patterns, namely the British-American model (high resident income, high degree of labor marketization), the Japanese-Korean model (high corporate income, chaebol economy), and the Norwegian and Finnish model (high government income, high welfare). The key to optimizing income distribution in our country lies in seeking a balance between people's welfare, corporate supply capacity, and government macroeconomic control capabilities, rather than unlimited expansion of a single proportion.

A：Suggestions for making concessions include the following: first, starting with state-owned enterprises, significantly increase contributions to the government for social security system construction; second, focusing on listed companies, encourage dividends and stock incentives to increase residents' property income; third, improve the long-term mechanism for wage growth, implement plans to increase income for urban and rural residents; fourth, study and explore the establishment of a special fund for increasing income for urban and rural residents with central financial support, providing appropriate subsidies to companies for salary increases; fifth, adjust the distribution path of financial resources, such as raising salaries for those still working and adjusting retirement benefits; sixth, gradually reduce the subsidy levels for pension funds for different groups; seventh, strengthen physical redistribution, and increase investment in education and other fields.

A：The reform of personal income tax should shift from basic deduction to additional deductions, such as considering deductions for dependents with non-working spouses, and gradually shift from classified collection to comprehensive collection. At the same time, improve the system for property income, study inheritance and gift taxes, enhance the regulatory function of direct taxes, and further increase the redistribution of tangible assets.

A：From two perspectives. First, from the perspective of per capita income, if we can maintain steady growth, we are expected to further approach the level of middle-income developed countries by 2035, challenging the narrative of the "middle-income trap". Secondly, from the perspective of industries, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we are at the forefront of technological revolution, such as catching up in the fields of renewable energy, artificial intelligence, etc., which will have profound impacts on industrial development.

A：In terms of time significance, "the 14th Five-Year Plan" is a new stage after the completion of a moderately prosperous society in the previous 100 years, facing new opportunities and challenges, and laying the foundation for building a socialist modernized country by 2035. In terms of spatial significance, it is a process of rebalancing, aiming to reshape the supply curve to promote high-quality development, while emphasizing the importance of human roles, enhancing consumption and investment efficiency to shape a better demand curve.

A：The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is reflected in seven aspects: the turning point period for peaking carbon emissions, the turning point period for urbanization, the decisive period for clearing hidden debts, the period of tackling internal and external risks, the deepening period of enterprises going global, the accelerating period of technological innovation, and the period of prolonged strategic competition between China and the United States.

A：The past year marked a turning point in the narrative surrounding China, with overseas investors shifting their attitude towards Chinese investment from one that deemed it uninvestable to now viewing Chinese assets as an unavoidable investment choice. Over the past five years, strategic goals have been steadily achieved through a series of five-year plans, leading to a deeper understanding among overseas investors of China's cyclical policies and an increased focus on long-term planning.

A：Opportunities include industrialization in southern countries (such as the growth in demand for engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, etc.), globalization of Chinese enterprises (further expanding overseas markets), AI scenarioization (opening up downstream application space), and increasing consumption rates (optimizing income distribution, improving consumption infrastructure, implementing paid staggered vacations to nurture new consumption hotspots). The main challenge lies in how to gracefully bid farewell to the traditional growth model that relied on real estate and other traditional driving forces in the past, and face the problems brought about by adjustments in the debt cycle.

A：I believe that beneath the apparent debt issues in China lies a core problem with assets. We need to focus on debt allocation and restructuring on the asset side. There are three solutions: first, embrace AI and technological advancements while avoiding excessive reliance that could lead to the replacement of human value; second, pre-emptively establish a social security network, focusing on employment security for different groups such as young people, middle-aged people, etc.; third, combat internal competition, improve labor efficiency, stabilize employment positions, and strengthen the enforcement of labor laws.

A：Starting from 2019, Chinese equity assets have been re-evaluated to nearly 35 trillion yuan, with revaluations in fields like real estate still ongoing. The process of risk clearing is crucial in the next five years and will bring adjustments in supply and demand, balance between domestic demand and external demand, as well as balance between assets and liabilities.

A：Artificial intelligence and the new economy are overwhelming themes in the capital market, from great power competition to the transition of old and new driving forces, all of which have significant historical significance. Currently, the progress that China has made in the field of artificial intelligence, such as good model performance, relatively low training costs and computing power requirements, and an increase in self-sufficiency in AI chips, shows a narrowing gap with the United States. It is expected that in the future, only China and the United States may be the main centers of the new economy globally.

A：The development of the new economy has already had macro significance, for example, the AI-related capital expenditure last year contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth, and its scale has exceeded the direct and indirect contribution of real estate to the economy. This has changed the market and macro understanding of China's growth.

A：Despite the rapid development of the new economy, it seems that there has not been a significant improvement in residents' confidence and employment expectations at the micro level. In fact, a large number of positions are disappearing and being added at the same time, leading to instability in the job market. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the different implications of the rise of the new economy on both macro and micro levels, embracing AI and the new economy while avoiding the "Turing trap" to prevent a cliff-like drop in human value due to technological advances.

A：Over the next five years, six major carbon governance mechanisms (six carbon mechanisms) will be gradually established, including local carbon assessment, industry carbon control, enterprise carbon management, etc. The accuracy of carbon accounting and the development of related markets (carbon market and electricity market) are important opportunities. At the same time, attention should be paid to potential opportunities and challenges brought by the development of national territory (such as the revitalization of Xinjiang and Northeast), changes in financial structure (such as the challenges of Shanghai as a financial center), and the improvement of macro-control capabilities.

A：In 2026, the country proposed optimizing measures for the landing of major projects, and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that investment this year should stabilize after the decline. Last year, fixed asset investment mainly contracted in economically large provinces, and policy financial instruments were mainly used in these areas. It is expected that a large number of projects will start in March at the beginning of spring, which will have a significant impact on the upstream and downstream industrial chains. If fixed asset investment can be repaired, it will be an important clue.

A：In the Central Economic Work Conference in 2026, it was proposed to further rectify the inwardly spiraling competition. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data has seen a positive growth for the fifth consecutive month, providing imagination space for policy to intensify efforts against inwardly spiraling competition. If the anti-inward spiral measures continue to progress, prices in industries such as construction, new energy, automotive, computer, and electronics may bottom out and start to rise again.

A：Pay attention to the development of AI applications in China because it has a wide range of application scenarios; breakthroughs in the field of technological innovation, especially investment opportunities related to VC and technology stocks; technological self-reliance and basic research, such as controlled nuclear fusion and quantum technology; the field of big finance, especially how to effectively manage in the era of asset management; and the re-balancing of valuation in cyclical industries.

A：Currently, the market believes that the old economy sectors are cheap enough and the value is highlighted, but the turning point in the fundamentals has not yet arrived. Between the new economy and the old economy, the general view is that before seeing the old economy recovery, it is still inclined to embrace the new economy. However, when participating in new economy themes, more attention should be paid to technology governance, including ethical and security issues brought about by technological breakthroughs, and incorporate them into the investment framework.

A：Opportunities mainly include mergers and industry consolidation brought about by anti-overwork, Pleasant 50 going global, VC and technology stocks corresponding to scientific innovation, REITs or REITs-like investments corresponding to asset activation, and golden opportunities under major unprecedented changes in a century.

A：In 2026, there will be increased subsidies in the consumer sector, and it is also expected that there will be incremental investments in infrastructure. In addition, attention will be paid to the implementation of the 2025 manufacturing plan and opportunities brought about by rising commodity prices.

A：The Chief Index has been released, which is based on multidimensional economic data compilation, providing a reference for macroeconomic analysis. At the same time, the "Towards the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan - Globalization and Great Changes" series of books have been released, including books that comprehensively interpret the framework of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan and strategic analysis for coping with the changes in globalization, providing deep insights for policymakers, market practitioners, and various readers in society.

A：The Chief Forum will launch a series of new products in the future, including Chief Consulting, Chief Salon, Chief Face-to-Face, and Chief Study Abroad. The products of the Chief Forum mainly include three core contents: Firstly, the monthly Chief Core Viewpoint, which summarizes the research judgments of hundreds of chief economists to help grasp macro trends and policy dynamics; secondly, the annual release of fund investment white papers and other financial works; and thirdly, the monthly updated Chief Online Think Tank, inviting chief economists to interpret and discuss hot topics through live broadcasts.

A：All content will be packaged within membership benefits, and subscribed to the content account's product showcase on platforms such as WeChat and TikTok. In addition, after lunch, everyone is required to return to the main venue to prepare for the afternoon meeting.

A：The afternoon session will focus on core topics such as the global political and economic changes and the restructuring of the supply chain, as well as the reform of the monetary system, with special attention to geopolitical issues. The strategic shift by the United States is a key part of the global political and economic changes, manifesting as the largest strategic contraction since the Cold War, shifting towards emphasizing Latin America as its sphere of influence, and adopting a transactional diplomatic policy rather than the previous values-based diplomacy. This suggests that future competition between China and the United States will shift from a life-or-death struggle to a struggle for dominance, especially in the Latin American region. The United States may increase its intervention in the region, such as by strengthening pressure on countries like Venezuela, while also trying to prevent the infiltration of other countries' influence in the region.

A：The United States is currently implementing a "America First" strategy, reducing overseas military commitments, and withdrawing from international organizations that do not serve American interests through the signing of memorandums. In the future, there may be further actions such as regime change and territorial annexation, strengthening the plundering of resources from other countries, and not allowing external forces to interfere with its interests in its hemisphere. This will have a significant impact on countries around the world, including China and Latin America.

A：The current international situation is changing from "one superpower with many strong countries" to "two superpowers with many strong countries", with emerging forces led by China rising, while the United States still maintains significant military, high-tech, and currency hegemony. However, with the rise of right-wing forces in Western countries, there is a fundamental change in international power, and a historic turning point of the rise of the East and fall of the West is gradually emerging. In the future, there may be a multipolar structure where both China and the US stand together, with the participation of the European Union, Russia, Japan, India, and other countries as well as global Southern forces.

A：After the United States increases its budget to 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027, it may trigger a new round of global arms race in 2026, especially as the relative decline of European power. Economic hegemony is being reshaped, with the proportion of GDP of BRICS countries and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization rising significantly, while the proportion of the European Union in the global economy is declining rapidly. The proportion of the US GDP has always remained at about a quarter, but Trump's policies have led to a decrease in its global influence.

A：The United States believes that raising tariffs can effectively offset its trade deficit issue. They think that previous tariff levels were too low, and with changes in the economic situation, especially the need to reduce reliance on allies, they have taken action by pulling the trigger.

A：China has abundant rare earth resources, especially in the field of medium and heavy rare earths, which play an important role in the military industry. Therefore, it may be the only country capable of negotiating with the United States.

A：In the planning process, it is emphasized to comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-style modernization, drive a significant increase in comprehensive national strength and international influence, and make science and technology as well as openness the core focus. It is proposed to construct a unified national market, enhance the consumption rate of residents, and adopt unconventional methods to break through technological bottlenecks.

A：Domestic demand is crucial to the Chinese economy, especially in extreme circumstances, where an economy that can self-sustain like Russia's appears stronger. China is promoting a national unified large market and an international and domestic dual circulation strategy to enhance its domestic demand and self-sustaining capabilities.

A：Technology has become a key factor in the change of great powers, with the transfer cycle of technology centers being approximately 80 to 100 years. Currently, China's technological development has posed a challenge to the United States, making breakthroughs in the field of technology crucial for China's position in global competition.

A：Although the proportion of exports from the United States to China has been continuously decreasing, the total trade volume of China is still increasing. The structure has changed, and the trade war and technology war have actually promoted the diversification of Chinese trade and the upgrading of the commodity structure.

A：It is expected that future funds may be re-adjusted on a global scale, with increasing flows into safe countries and major powers such as China. Particularly in 2026, when small countries will face pressure, the role of funds in supporting the secondary market will become more prominent.

A：The artificial intelligence revolution is overturning the traditional production function of economics, with a large amount of labor being replaced by intelligence. This is causing existing macroeconomic theories and models to become obsolete, and the future world will enter a new stage dominated by grand narratives and competition between G2 countries.

A：This is difficult to predict. I usually answer "Bayes" (based on real-time changes in the scores of Sino-US games), although I firmly believe that the prevailing wind will blow to the east in the long run, short-term forecasts are uncertain.

A：I am not sure how much it can rise specifically, I can only watch while walking, because the situation during the competition is constantly changing in real time.

A：The focus is on the transformation of computing power supply and how to transform accumulated technological potential into business logic, forming a complete industrial ecosystem so that the capital invested in the front end can be recovered and form an economic cycle.

A：The core elements are electrical power and manufacturing capability. Whoever can possess these two things and complete the mission of the AI industry revolution will have the last laugh.

A：The most notable is the 70% increase in the price of gold, reaching $4,500 per ounce, which reflects concerns about the trustworthiness of the global capital in the US dollar credit system.

A：The reason the US dollar has not collapsed is because the United States has put all its national fate and gold credit in the field of artificial intelligence, and the market value growth of the science and technology AI chain has supported the credit status of the US dollar.

A：Americans may not be able to complete this mission because of a lack of manufacturing industry. Instead, this responsibility falls on the shoulders of the Eastern superpower (China), which will establish a strong and comprehensive industrial ecosystem in AI terminals, allowing the capital invested in the front end to circulate and form a closed loop.

A：China will integrate open-source large-scale model bases and ecosystems into various cost-effective and beautiful hardware peripherals to promote the penetration of AI, continuously optimize AI through scenarios and data, and then drive the expansion cycle of digital assets and new credit.

A：The order of globalization over the past 30 years has mainly been established in four aspects: the free flow of goods, the free flow of capital, the free flow of people, and the free flow of information. However, in reality, during these decades, the only aspects that have truly achieved free flow are the trade of goods and the flow of capital. The free flow of people has never been realized, and there are also many countries that choose to isolate themselves in terms of the free flow of information. Some of the ideal arrangements in the post-war system, such as GATT's management of goods trade to the WTO, the IMF balancing international payments, and the World Bank providing financial support, have limited influence in the current process of globalization. The real driving force comes from zero tariffs on goods trade and the opening up of capital projects.

A：The United States has become a key player in recent global changes. Since 2018, the United States has adopted a more confrontational approach in the field of trade, contrasting with other non-American countries. In the past, the United States was one of the main driving forces behind globalization, but now its attitude towards globalization has changed significantly. It has not only become the country with the highest global tariff rates, but also increased its revenue through tariffs. This indicates a shift in the structural role of the United States in the process of globalization.

A：China is a deep participant in globalization, but for a long time it has not been the driving force behind globalization. Faced with the challenges of anti-globalization, China needs to consider how to ensure that most countries can still benefit from globalization and address the imbalance between surpluses and deficits. A high-quality strategy for opening up to the outside world, including joint ventures and cooperation with local investors, expanding imports and other win-win models, can help maintain the growth of global trade volume and avoid moving in a pessimistic direction.

A：The rapid decline in imports indicates that China's competitive advantage has significantly increased. Now China has formed advantages in all industries, fields, and against all countries, no longer relying on anything from abroad.

A：The early driving force of globalization mainly came from the promotion of China and the United States after 1990. However, by 2008, this trend began to change as the United States started deleveraging due to issues such as trade deficits and budget deficits, leading to a significant reduction in household sector debt levels and a reluctance to take on the leading role in globalization. Additionally, the increasing importance of security logic at the political level has caused globalization to lose an important driving force. It is estimated that globalization has been ongoing for 20 years and may continue in this trend for the next 10 to 20 years.

A：Globalization is built on three main pillars: the United States providing public security goods and acting as a rule maker and beneficiary; the global trade rules system of the WTO, in which China is also a beneficiary; and the free flow of global capital, manpower, and technology. However, now, investment perspectives must also take into account regional security considerations, the global energy structure may undergo significant changes, and the dominance of the United States in the financial sector may also move towards diversification. These trends are difficult to avoid.

A：From an investment perspective, the shift in the strategic focus of the United States reflects its intention to reshape energy and mineral resources and financial control, demonstrating a defensive hegemonic strategy, and even resorting to surprise attacks. This may result in a change in the global energy structure and a redistribution of control in the financial sector, potentially leading to a gradual diversification of the US dollar's hegemonic status.

A：The actions of the United States towards countries such as Venezuela demonstrate its strategic focus and determination. There is discussion on whether similar actions will be taken towards Greenland. However, from a strategic perspective, the United States' strategic focus may be defensive rather than contracting, focused on energy and technology fields. This may also address issues related to the US dollar and US debt credit. In the long term, it may have an impact on gold and digital currencies.

A：The shift in the United States national security strategy reflects a fundamental change in the assessment of national security, rather than a simple strategic contraction or shift. While some of the actions of the Trump administration may appear to be beneficial for reshoring manufacturing and resource acquisition, the success of this strategic shift from a European perspective, as well as the ability to truly revitalize American manufacturing, remains uncertain.

A：In the latest national security strategy of the United States, economic security has been placed at an unprecedented high priority. It is believed that the biggest source of insecurity for the United States currently comes from economic insecurity, including concerns about energy and manufacturing. This focus on economic insecurity has affected its military strength and overall national security, leading to a shift in strategic focus towards enhancing economic security, at the expense of other aspects such as value coordination and relationships with allies.

A：Europe feels very uncomfortable because it originally thought it shared common values with the United States, but now the United States not only interferes in European values but also economically interferes. This makes Europe feel awkward in its attitude.

A：In the United States, there are different opinions within the Republican and Democratic parties regarding the foreign policy of the Trump administration. Despite President Trump taking a series of actions involving expansion and strategic focus, the Republican and Democratic parties have different views on how to handle these policies and relationships with other countries.

A：The behavior pattern of the Trump administration is characterized by once they start a certain action, such as a trade war or involvement in Venezuelan affairs, they typically continue to push forward until the goal is achieved, and they rarely encounter effective resistance. Trump is adept at promoting his achievements through social media and using actual actions to increase fiscal revenue and adjust trade imbalances.

A：Key variables include the macroeconomic situation, especially the current GDP growth rate, inflation, employment rate, and international balance of payments indicators. In addition, comparative advantages at the industrial level are also very important, but more importantly is the proper use of macroeconomic policies, which will determine the positions of China and the United States in the global political-economic game. At the same time, the development of AI technology and its impact on the economies of both countries will be one of the most decisive factors in the next five years.

A：AI will become the most important variable affecting the relationship between China and the United States in the next five years, as it will determine the competitive advantage of the two countries. Although AI technology is developing rapidly, the specific level of development in the next five years is uncertain, including the risk of a partial or comprehensive bubble burst, and how this fluctuation will affect the economies and job markets of the countries.

A：From Trump's perspective, he is unlikely to engage in a hot war with a superpower easily, but Japanese political figures such as Takashi Nagaya may try to push for the further development of Japan's military, break free from US military control, and increase friction with China. However, overall, the probability of a hot war in the next five years is not high.

A：The game between China and the United States may enter a deep water area, especially in the financial field, and be influenced by external political factors. The two countries compete in terms of overall macroeconomic and structural technology, for example, the United States is facing high inflation problems, while China has advantages on the production side, but there are issues in terms of domestic demand, private sector growth, etc., which need to be addressed in order to maintain economic health and take the initiative.

A：For the United States, it is necessary to address the issue of high inflation and reduce the shortcomings in the manufacturing industry; for China, it is important to focus on supply-side reform, solve the economic growth rate, especially the bottoming out of private sector growth, low prices, and unstable social expectations.

A：Expanding domestic demand not only helps to boost domestic consumption and investment, but also allows other countries to profit from China by increasing imports, thereby reducing reliance on the United States, expanding the global circle of friends, and increasing the odds of success in international economic and trade struggles.

A：In the next five years, there will be a dynamic game between technology blockade and independent innovation, and the two countries will intensify competition within a limited scope of cooperation. China has made significant progress in areas such as semiconductors and is working hard to fill gaps and catch up with the United States in areas of strength.

A：It is expected that the capital markets (including A shares and H shares) will have great opportunities in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. Uncertainty and volatility in asset prices are increasing. The investment focus should be on domestic substitution and independent innovation, especially in industries such as new energy, batteries, photovoltaic components, and 5G communication. In addition, basic metals and rare metals are seen favorably due to the growth in demand for preparation, and gold also has the potential to rise due to security logic, but attention should be paid to the risks brought by liquidity drivers and geopolitical changes. Meanwhile, central banks in various countries expanding their balance sheets will drive up stock valuations, and the performance of the stock market is expected to be good.

A：We expect the US dollar to continue to weaken and become a relatively weak currency. The main reason is the large trade deficit in the United States, which requires continuous inflow of funds to maintain the strength of the dollar. However, due to various disturbances and policy uncertainties, inflows of funds from other developed countries to the United States are decreasing and this trend may continue, therefore the possibility of the US dollar weakening is high.

A：We expect the RMB to strengthen, as a result of the weakening US dollar and improved prices due to China's internal policy efforts. In addition, the global trend of legal currency depreciation relative to tangible assets may push up global inflation, which is a positive signal for China. Therefore, inflation may be a good direction for asset allocation this year.

A：Both the US stock market and A shares have the potential to rise, but the specific performance needs to consider risk-weighted volatility. The central bank mentioned that the China Investment Corporation will play the role of a sovereign wealth fund, which may affect the performance of both. The US stock market may rise more than A shares in some time periods, but in terms of volatility, considering the stability of A shares, the cost-effectiveness of A shares may be higher.

A：I am more optimistic about the performance of precious metals and base metals, especially when the price of gold rises, other rare metals will also rise, among which silver will have a greater elasticity in performance. In addition, the industrialization process of Southern countries around the world is accelerating, driving the increase in infrastructure and industrial demand, which will have a positive impact on metal consumption and continue the overall upward trend seen this year.

A：The essence of globalization in the past 40 years has essentially resulted in a global imbalance, with some economies experiencing large trade surpluses while others are experiencing deficits. This situation is a result of the evolution of the international monetary system, especially after the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971 and the entry into the modern Jamaica system, making global imbalances possible.

A：The characteristic of global imbalance lies in the fact that countries, especially the United States, possessing international payment tools such as the US dollar, can create unlimited international currency, allowing deficit countries to purchase goods and services from surplus countries without limits. This was not the case in the international monetary system before 1971. The key factor is that as the issuing country of the international reserve currency, the US has the ability to create an unlimited amount of US dollars and use them as an international payment tool, which sustains the modern international trade system and global imbalance phenomenon.

A：Although China's trade surplus with the United States has decreased from close to 100% in 2019 to around 20% currently, the United States remains China's most important external source of demand. The relationship between China and the United States has not loosened due to trade frictions; rather, it has become closer in some ways, just more indirectly linked through third-country re-exports.

A：The United States creates a trade surplus globally by issuing dollars in exchange for goods, services, and reserve assets from other countries. This surplus essentially functions as a seigniorage tax collected by the United States from the global economy.

A：The decline of the global dominance of the US dollar primarily comes from within the United States itself, rather than external challenges. Although the dollar remains the most important reserve currency and currency for foreign exchange market transactions globally, there are five possible challenges to the dollar's status, such as a return to the gold standard, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), a super-sovereign international currency, a basket of multiple sovereign currencies, or a digital currency based on blockchain technology. In the next ten years, the current international monetary system will continue, and the dominance of the US dollar will remain. The reasons for the decline of the global dominance of the US dollar lie within the United States itself, manifested as hollowing out of industries and widening income inequality. The globalization dividend brought by the US dollar exports is mainly concentrated in the hands of the wealthy and financial capitalists, while the income share of ordinary workers decreases and the profit share of businesses increases. This imbalance in the internal economic structure of the United States may lead to national decline.

A：The United States has three strategies to face the challenges of globalization. The first strategy is to adjust domestic policies, such as abandoning the dominance of the US dollar and promoting policies for shared prosperity. The second strategy is to take anti-globalization measures when unable to resolve internal issues, such as reducing imports from other countries and increasing domestic savings. The third strategy is to continue to decline on the path of anti-globalization, which requires restructuring its domestic economic structure.

A：The goal of internationalizing the Renminbi should not be to replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency, as this would lead to hollowing out of domestic industries. It is more important to focus on maintaining existing trade stability, reducing reliance on foreign demand by expanding domestic demand, and paying attention to whether the United States' anti-globalization measures will cause domestic economic issues and how its external demand situation will impact China.

A：The internationalization of the RMB has achieved significant achievements in the post-pandemic era, specifically reflected in historical highs in global payment currency rankings, global trade financing rankings, and other aspects. According to data from SWIFT, the ranking of the RMB in global payment currencies has improved, and from 2022 to 2024, there is a trend of increasing volume in cross-border RMB loans and offshore RMB loans in Hong Kong. In addition, the issuance of Panda bonds (onshore RMB-denominated bonds) and Dim Sum bonds (offshore RMB bonds in the Hong Kong market) has also shown positive progress.

A：The current external environment changes that are affecting the internationalization of the Renminbi mainly come from the United States, including the impact of Trump's new policies on the dominance of the US dollar, as well as the capital outflows and market panic triggered by the "Three Kills" incident on April 2. After experiencing a series of fluctuations, the US dollar exchange rate has gradually stabilized, reflecting overseas investors' risk hedging behavior towards US dollar assets, especially in a high-interest rate environment, investors tend to use low-interest rate currencies for financing, thus promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi.

A：The development of digital currencies may play a supportive role in the internationalization of the Renminbi. For example, the United States is actively promoting the development of stablecoins, while the European Central Bank, although initially planning to introduce a central bank digital currency, has encountered roadblocks with the rise of stablecoins in the United States. China has already decided to pursue a central bank digital currency and has shown strong competitiveness in the private sector digital payment system. This will help promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, especially when combined with the central bank digital currency of the public sector and the advanced digital payment systems of the private sector.

A：The future trend of the US dollar exchange rate will be driven by two factors: on the one hand, the United States increasing tariffs can reduce the current account deficit, reduce the global supply of dollars, causing overseas investors to pay higher costs to obtain dollars, which will have a certain promoting effect on the internationalization of the Renminbi; on the other hand, the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration may reappear, which will have a negative impact on the internationalization of the Renminbi. Therefore, in the short term, the Renminbi exchange rate may be affected by event-driven fluctuations, but in the long term, the US dollar is showing a weakening trend overall, which is conducive to the internationalization of the Renminbi.

A：Yes, in 2023 Argentina used the renminbi to maintain its current account payments. Our CIPS, as a renminbi payment system, is being promoted globally, with overseas clearing banks continuously improving their practices, without the need to participate in the BIS international clearing bank's currency bridge project. For example, we have successfully graduated and gained valuable experience in Hong Kong.

A：Factors driving the internationalization of the renminbi include the Russia-Ukraine war, which has led Russia to settle trade with several countries using the renminbi; changing perceptions of Chinese assets overseas, with the Chinese stock market seen as a hedge against the US AI bubble; and geopolitical changes that have prompted the market to realize that having a significant market share (possibly 10% to 15%) for the renminbi can provide enough strength to avoid being bullied, promoting the use of the renminbi for international trade and investment settlement.

A：The United States will not easily give up its dominant position, but when China achieves internationalization of the renminbi, we should take a practical attitude. It is not advisable to completely replace the dollar as the dominant currency, but to seek to occupy a sufficient share in the global market, so that other countries are willing to accept and use the renminbi for settlement.

A：The challenges we face include being the best we can be and becoming a strong financial and economic power; at the same time, we must address external challenges such as the impact of geopolitical changes and decide whether to promote retail central bank digital currency or rely on private sector payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay to enter overseas markets when facing challenges from digital currency stablecoins.

A：Based on the views of the previous few guests, although it is generally believed that the US dollar is weakening, the actual trends vary. As for the forecasts of the US dollar against the Chinese Renminbi in 2026 and 2027, the discussion is still ongoing and no specific numbers have been provided. However, most people believe that due to the US fiscal issues, high debt levels, and the impact of economic management, the US dollar exchange rate is under depreciation pressure, but at the same time it is also influenced by the relative exchange rates of other currencies such as the Euro. The Renminbi may have short-term appreciation potential, but in the long term, it still needs to return to fundamentals.

A：We believe that the United States may cut interest rates three times, as opposed to the widely expected 1 to 2 times. If the United States does indeed cut interest rates three times, it will provide significant support for the Renminbi, allowing it to reach around 6.8.

A：In a book I read, it mentioned that the percentage of the US dollar in global currency reserves may decrease from the current 58% to 30% to 40% within the next ten years, which is the boldest prediction yet. This book is "Our Dollar and Your Problem," published by Kenny Rog, Chief Economist of FMF, at the beginning of this year.

A：Because the author accurately predicted many major issues in the book, including the peak of the Chinese real estate market in 2020, he has a high credibility for the view that the peak of the US dollar hegemony has already been reached.

A：Most discussions are based on GDP, policies, and interest rate differentials, but one important factor that may be overlooked is that the United States is still the largest destination for foreign investment in the world, despite China having a larger volume of outward investment, it lags far behind the United States and Europe in attracting foreign capital.

A：I have a guess that both sides may reach such a consensus. The United States also hopes for the appreciation of the RMB. If China makes certain promises regarding exchange rate appreciation, it will help to reach a trade agreement.

A：According to the current economic situation in China and the rebound of CPI and PPI, the likelihood of sustained reflation in 2026 is not high. The Chinese economy is still in the stage of improving people's livelihood needs, so it is unlikely to take significant measures to appreciate the currency.

A：The reasons for the drop in the US dollar index include a slowdown in the US economic growth, consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the impact of the internationalization of the renminbi on the US dollar's payment share, and market doubts about its credit due to the high level of US government debt.

A：It is predicted that the Renminbi will appreciate by 2026, potentially rising further to 6.8 or even lower after breaking 7, with the central forecast around 6.8. In the long run, as the global share of the US dollar declines, the Renminbi will have more opportunities for appreciation.

A：Intuitively speaking, due to China's huge trade surplus, it is not possible to maintain a huge surplus indefinitely, and exchange rate adjustments will play a converging role. The model predicts that adjustments are necessary after the imbalance, and envisions an appreciation rate of 3% per year, which will return to a balanced state in ten years.

A：Based on observations of the US dollar and systematic forecasts within the entire foreign exchange strategy system, we have included in the model the estimated devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies. Currently, the model shows that the dollar is approximately 15% overvalued, while the Renminbi is approximately 25% undervalued. We predict a long-term trend in which the Renminbi will gradually appreciate to achieve economic balance.

A：A 3% appreciation will indeed put some pressure on exporters, but as the example of Japan shows, with the development of high-quality products, exporters' sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations will decrease, so a 3% appreciation over the course of a year is acceptable and manageable.

A：The dollar reserve system is currently dominant, but is facing a gradual decline, including factors such as the increase in the US fiscal deficit and debt levels. This may lead other economies to turn to other assets, such as RMB assets. However, the internationalization of the RMB needs to consider whether its yield can attract long-term allocations, and whether the fundamental of the Chinese economy can support this transition.

A：In the past few years, the opening up of the Chinese financial market, especially the connectivity between the mainland and Hong Kong, has brought significant progress, which has helped to develop new economic momentum. Although there are some bright spots in the internationalization of the renminbi, solving many economic and livelihood problems is still needed to achieve a higher status. At the same time, it is also necessary to recognize that in the current environment, the role of the US dollar as a safe haven currency remains relatively stable, and the allocation of assets in emerging markets is more complex and diverse.

A：This is mainly because China's competitiveness in the industrial chain has greatly improved, the United States cannot afford a tariff hike of over 100%, and the impact of China's control over rare earths. Therefore, there is currently an anchor in the US-China relationship, even if the relationship is tense, the economic and trade ties between the two countries cannot be easily severed.

A：What I focus more on is not only China's relationship with the United States, but also its emphasis on economic and trade relations with Europe. The United States is implementing unilateral tariff policies, while Europe has expressed opposition to China's overcapacity issue. China is now proposing to lead development through technology while also considering consumption. It is expected that the State Council will formulate detailed fifteen-year plans for this in the first half of this year, which will have a positive impact on Sino-US relations and China's geopolitical and trade relations with Europe.

A：The future international reserve currency system will present a multipolar trend, with the US dollar, Euro, and Renminbi as the three main giants. Regarding the internationalization of the Renminbi, although the start is relatively stable, the pace can be appropriately accelerated. Establishing an offshore Renminbi trading center in a controllable manner can deepen the process of Renminbi internationalization and enhance financial security.

A：Currently, the settlement ratio of the Renminbi is about 4%, and it is expected to gradually rise to over 10% in the future, surpassing the Japanese Yen and the British Pound. There is a high possibility that it will become one of the top three payment currencies.

A：Professor Wu Xinru's research suggests that the actual exchange rate of the Renminbi is significantly undervalued, but I tend to believe that the Renminbi is not undervalued. The appreciation of the Renminbi is positive for the overall Chinese economy, but the appreciation should be gradual and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi to attract foreign investment, while avoiding significant fluctuations that may impact the competitiveness of export enterprises.