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小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK,XPEV.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
XP Inc. achieved record financial and operational results, including a 149% increase in vehicle deliveries, exceeding 10,000 monthly overseas units, and a gross margin above 20%. The company unveiled AI and RD advancements, planned global expansion with new vehicle models, and targeted breakeven by Q4. XP Inc. aims to launch robot taxis and humanoid robots, enhancing its physical AI technologies and cross-domain integration for future growth.
会议速览
XP Inc's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Results, Forward-Looking Statements, and Q&A
The dialogue covers XP Inc's Q3 2025 earnings conference call, detailing financial and operating results, compliance with securities regulations, and a question-and-answer session. The call highlights the company's commitment to updating stakeholders while adhering to GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, with a replay available online.
XP's Q3 2025 Record Results and Strategic Vision for Physical AI
XP achieved record results in Q3 2025 with increased deliveries, revenue, and gross margin. The company focuses on AI R&D, aiming for breakeven in Q4 and planning to launch VLA 2.0, robot taxis, and humanoid robots in 2026. An open ecosystem approach will accelerate value creation, while introducing super extended range EVs and one vehicle dual energy models to expand market share and address key challenges in the EV sector.
Global Expansion and Localized Production: A Milestone in Overseas Deliveries and New Models
Achieved record monthly overseas deliveries, expanded global presence with new stores, commenced European production, and planned to introduce diverse models in 2026.
Revolutionizing Intelligent Driving: Xpy's V 2.0 Model and Robotaxi Innovations
Xpy is advancing intelligent driving with its V 2.0 model, offering enhanced safety and user experience. The company plans to deploy this model across its lineup, open-source it for global partners, and launch 3 robotaxi models in 2026, focusing on scalability and cost-efficiency. Xpy invites industry collaboration to promote advanced technologies and build a sustainable ecosystem for robotaxi services.
X Robotics Unveils Next-Gen Humanoid Robot: Mass Production & Market Expansion by 2026
X Robotics showcases advanced humanoid robot with plans for mass production by 2026, targeting commercial deployment and SDK opening for global collaboration, projecting annual sales of over 1 million units by 2030, alongside robust AI-driven vehicle business growth.
Q3 2025 Financial Results: Record Revenues and Year-over-Year Growth Highlighted
The CFO discusses the company's financial performance for Q3 2025, noting a significant year-over-year increase in total revenues of 101.8% and a quarterly increase of 11.5%, with total revenues reaching 20.38 billion. The presentation focuses on R and B, providing a brief overview of the financial achievements for the quarter.
Record Q3 2025 Sales Surge, Driven by New Models & Services Expansion
The company reported a significant 105.3% YoY and 6.9% QoQ increase in vehicle sales revenue to 18.05 billion in Q3 2025, alongside a 78.1% YoY and 67.3% QoQ rise in services revenue to 2.33 billion, attributed to successful milestones and expanded after-sales and technical R&D services. Despite higher R&D and SGA expenses, gross margin improved to 20.1%, reflecting ongoing cost reduction efforts. The net loss narrowed to 0.38 billion from 1.81 billion YoY, showcasing financial recovery and strategic investments in new vehicle models and technologies.
Guidelines for Participating in a Conference Call and Asking Questions
Instructions are given on how to ask and cancel questions during a conference call, emphasizing clarity, order, and repeating questions in English if asked in Chinese. Instructions include using specific star codes on the phone, picking up the handset if on a speakerphone, and asking one question at a time.
Exploring the Shift from Traditional Automotive Models to Physical AI in Vehicle Development
The dialogue discusses the fundamental differences between traditional automakers and the emerging physical AI model in vehicle development. It highlights the integration of technology, software, and hardware as pivotal in shaping the future of cars, which are expected to evolve into robotic formats over the next decade, significantly increasing the role of AI components in car manufacturing.
Revenue Trends from Volkswagen Collaboration: Q4 2025 and 2026 Outlook
Discussed revenue growth from Volkswagen's technology collaboration, expecting Q4 2025 to match Q3, with touring SOC revenue starting small but ramping up with vehicle sales. Full year 2026 revenue projected to be comparable to 2025, contingent on milestone delivery. Plans to reinvest collaboration revenue into R&D.
Exploring Comparative Advantages in Humanoid Robot Development Amidst Industry Peers
A query about strategic ambitions in humanoid robotics, focusing on future roadmap and comparative strengths against industry peers, is raised, seeking insights into long-term competitive positioning.
XPS Robotics: Advancing Humanoid Robot Development with Integrated AI and Synergistic Industry Expertise
Discusses XPS Robotics' strategic roadmap, emphasizing the integration of AI, bionic features, and synergy with the automotive industry to advance humanoid robot development, highlighting the 8th generation robots and their potential for commercialization.
Mass Production and Commercialization Milestones of Humanoid Robots
Discusses challenges in humanoid robot production, emphasizing capability integration and language-based communication. Highlights 1.0 stage mass production, 2026 field testing, and 2030 goal of 1 million units. Outlines use cases including tour guiding, retail, and household applications, aiming for an open SDK to foster diverse scenarios.
Exploring Xon's Robot Taxi Launch: Technology, Cost Efficiency, and Competitive Edge
The dialogue delves into Xon's decision to launch robot taxi services by 2026, focusing on their technology inflection points, cost reduction strategies, and unique business model. It compares Xon's approach to other Chinese robot taxi companies, highlighting their technological path and competitive advantages.
2026 Vision: Advancing R&D for Robotic Taxi Systems and Enhanced Mobility Solutions
The dialogue outlines a strategic R&D approach focusing on full-stack self-development and cross-integration capabilities. By 2026, the company aims to launch advanced robotic models, such as the Rob x.c. fleet, enhancing mobility with driverless L4 models and assisted driving L4 models. This strategy addresses current limitations in taxi systems, including high production costs and complex scenario handling, positioning the company for a competitive advantage in the robotic taxi industry.
Future Expansion Plans and Strategic Partnerships of Robot Taxi Business
Discusses future growth milestones including fleet size and market expansion, current collaboration with Golden Map, and potential partnerships with smaller ride-hailing companies.
X Bank's Strategy for Robot Taxi Launch and Ecosystem Partnership
X Bank plans to launch three robot taxi models at varying price points, aiming to collaborate with business partners like Aab for traffic, payment, and operation support. The strategy involves developing a robust interface to integrate with diverse service providers across countries and cities, enhancing the ecosystem for commercial success.
Revenue Projections for Emerging Business Segments: An Overview of Future Growth
The discussion revolves around anticipated revenue from emerging sectors including robot taxis, humanoid robots, and electric vehicles. While no precise estimates are provided, the speaker highlights a commitment to scaling operations and achieving volume production, particularly for the flying car and autonomous driving technologies. A long-term goal of 1 million annual humanoid robot sales by 2030 is mentioned, reflecting confidence in technological advancement and diverse applications. The overall sentiment is optimistic about future growth potential, despite the evolving nature of these ventures.
Expanding Vehicle Portfolio and International Market Growth
Discussion on launching new vehicle models across various segments, equipped with advanced powertrain options, targeting both domestic and international markets, with a focus on achieving significant growth by 2026.
Exploring Growth in EV Models and Affordability of Humanoid Robots
Discussed potential growth of new EV models, emphasizing different customer bases and usage scenarios. Highlighted advancements in robot affordability through software optimization and integration challenges. Outlined progress in overseas localized production, aiming for higher international market contribution and localized supply chain strategies.
Conference Call Concludes with Investor Contact Information Provided
The dialogue concludes a conference call by thanking participants, offering contact information for further investor inquiries, and instructing the audience to disconnect their lines.
要点回答
Q:What were the key operating metrics reported by XP in Q3 2025?
A:In Q3 2025, XP reported record results in key operating metrics including a new high in vehicle deliveries at 116,007 units, a 149% increase year over year. The company also achieved a gross margin exceeding 20% for the first time, and reduced its net loss, aiming for breakeven in the fourth quarter.
Q:What is the role of AI models in the development of mobility and daily life?
A:As AI models advance and become integrated with real-world data, machines are gaining the ability to interact, communicate, transform, and create within our physical environment, reshaping the future of mobility and daily life.
Q:What is XP's strategy for becoming a leading global company in embodied intelligence?
A:XP's strategy to become a leading global company in embodied intelligence includes developing an extensive portfolio of technologies, products, and supporting a business ecosystem. This involves providing AI-powered vehicles to consumers worldwide, deploying mass-produced robotaxis on a large scale, and achieving the mass production of humanoid robots. An open and dynamic ecosystem is seen as crucial to unlocking the full potential of physical AI for humanity.
Q:What new vehicle product was launched by XP and what are its features?
A:On November 6th, XP launched the preysal S for the XP X 9 Super, an extended range vehicle equipped with a 5 C rate, high capacity lithium-polymer battery and a total range of up to 1602 km. It is the world's first seven-year-old vehicle to offer the longest range, highest AI computing power, smallest turning radius, and most efficient space utilization in its category. The 9 Super Erev model has received unprecedented interest, especially in northern regions and inland cities of China.
Q:What are the plans for introducing new vehicle models in Q1 2026?
A:The plan is to introduce three super extended range products in Q1 2026 to alleviate key challenges for extended-range vehicles (Erev) users by offering long pure electric range and quicker supercharging, capturing more of the Erev market.
Q:How did the global business of XP expand in Q3 2025?
A:XP maintained strong sales growth and established a solid foundation for long-term expansion through its localized approach. In September 2025, monthly overseas deliveries exceeded 10,000 units for the first time, growing 79% year over year. During the third quarter, 56 new overseas stores were established, expanding the cell and service network to 52 countries and regions. A European localized production facility at Magna Land in Graz, Austria, commenced operations, and the company began introducing the XPG G6 and G9 models simultaneously.
Q:What advancements are being made in AI for XP's vehicles?
A:XP is focusing on investing in AI, large models, computing infrastructure, and datasets, which is driving the continuous emergence of advanced capabilities from their physical world model. The upcoming V 2.0 model, with 10 more parameters than its predecessors, will substantially enhance safety and user experience in intelligent driving. The mass production of the VLA 2.0 model is seen as a major breakthrough in physical AI models, offering significant generational improvements in user experience.
Q:What are the plans for the VLA 2.0 model and its commercialization?
A:XP plans to open-source the VLA 2.0 model to global commercial partners, aiming to provide leading advanced driver experience to audiences. The initial launch customer for the VLA 2.0 model will be the Audi brand. Additionally, the Turing AI SOC has earned a formal sourcing from TTM, and mass production is expected to start early next year. Revenue from licensing technology to external partnerships will be reinvested into R&D for the Touring and V models to foster a positive cycle of innovation and commercialization.
Q:What are the characteristics of the robotaxi models that XP plans to launch in 2026?
A:XP plans to launch 3 robotaxi models in 2026 with technology that does not depend on high-definition maps or lidar, addressing industry challenges including high costs, operational limitations, and poor generalization.
Q:What is the projected timeline for mass production of advanced humanoid robots by X Robotics?
A:X Robotics aims to begin mass production of advanced humanoid robots by the end of 2026, after full capability integration through cross-domain innovation in Q2 2026.
Q:What are the projected sales figures for humanoid robots by 2030 according to the speaker's vision?
A:The speaker envisions that by 2030, humanoid robots could sell over 1 million units annually, once a new generation of robots reaches inflection, similar to China's automotive industry.
Q:What financial performance metrics does the speaker expect for the fourth quarter of 2025?
A:The speaker expects total deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be between 120,000 and 130,000 units, with year-over-year revenue growth of 36.6% to 44.3%, and projected fourth-quarter revenue between 21.5 billion RMB to 23 billion RMB.
Q:What are the main factors attributed to the year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases in vehicle sales and services and others revenue?
A:The year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases in vehicle sales revenue were mainly attributable to higher deliveries from nearly launched vehicle models, while services and others revenue increases were primarily due to the increased revenue from after-sales services and technical R&D services rendered to the Volkswagen Group due to the achievement of certain key milestones.
Q:What were the revenue increases year over year and quarter over quarter for vehicle sales and services and others in the third quarter of 2025?
A:Revenues from vehicle sales increased 105.3% year over year and 6.9% quarter over quarter, while revenues from services and others increased 78.1% year over year and 67.3% quarter over quarter.
Q:How does the speaker describe the difference between traditional automakers and those focusing on physical AI?
A:The speaker describes that traditional automakers focus on their own designs and how they target user segments, relying on the integration of tier 1 suppliers and different parts of the supply chain. In contrast, the physical AI generated model focuses on the definition of the future tech, involving full technology capability and cost integration.
Q:What is the projected impact of AI technology integration on future cars?
A:Future cars will integrate AI technology across various domains, which will lead to the development of a completely new set of products involving software, hardware, and infrastructure upgrades. This shift signifies that physical AI components will become increasingly prevalent in car development, with projections suggesting over 50% involvement in future car development.
Q:How will the collaboration with Volkswagen affect the company's revenue, particularly in the December quarter and the full year 2026?
A:The revenue from technology collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to increase significantly in the December quarter, mirroring the increase seen in Q3. Key milestones for Q4 are anticipated to be delivered, contributing to similar revenue levels as Q3. Regarding the touring associate, revenue from the supply of toolingSOC to pre-production verification vehicles is expected to start in Q4, with a ramp-up in revenue anticipated to align with the sales volume of the jointly developed vehicles starting early next year. It is expected that the revenue from the technical collaboration for the full year 2026 will be comparable to the revenue recognized in 2025, provided key milestones are met.
Q:What are the strategy and ambition regarding the longer-term roadmap and comparative advantages in robotics technology?
A:The company's strategy for robotics technology is moving forward as planned, focusing on human-like robots that are highly appealing and can attract people to interact with. Their robots incorporate advanced features like muscles and bionic skin, making them more human-like and appealing for human interaction. Compared to existing robots in the market, the company's robots represent the seventh generation, with the eighth generation already in mass production. The company's robots integrate software and AI, differentiating them from hardware-driven robots. The company's advantages in robotics development include synergies with physical AI resources and expertise from the automotive industry, which aids in business strategy and mass production. Additionally, the company's knowledge in the electric vehicle industry is expected to facilitate their future sales and marketing布局 and globalization efforts. The company aims to commercialize their technology by reinvesting revenue from licensing and technical collaborations into their R&D team.
Q:What are the key milestones and scaling effects of the human robot operation by the end of 2026, and what are the long-term use cases targeted?
A:The mass production of human robots is considered one of the most challenging tasks the company has undertaken. Meeting the challenge of easily trainability with human language to enable various assistive functions is crucial. While specific capacity and effect scaling figures for human robot operations by the end of 2026 are not provided, the company's long-term goal is to deliver 1 million units by 2030. In terms of use cases, the company is targeting broader integration into daily life and various industries, although specific use cases are not detailed in the provided text.
Q:What are the stages of the new generation of mass-produced robots?
A:The new generation of mass-produced robots is entering the 1.0 stage, and it is anticipated that by the end of the next 10 months, the robot development process during mass production will be significantly advanced.
Q:What are the initial commercial scenarios for the robots?
A:The initial commercial scenarios for the robots include tour guiding, shopping, or retail assistance. It is hoped that by 2026, the robots will be working alongside people at XPS source campuses for field testing, and the SDK will be opened to more partners for commercialization purposes.
Q:When can we expect household robot applications and the opening of the SDK?
A:Household robot applications are expected within five years, and the opening of the SDK is anticipated to allow more partners to help with diverse and long-tail scenario applications, thus building a better robotic future and ecosystem.
Q:What is the reasoning behind launching a robot taxi service in 2026, and what are the technological inflection points or cost reduction strategies?
A:The launch of the robot taxi service in 2026 is a part of the company's R&D strategy focusing on full self-development and cross integration. Inflection points in 2026 include the ability to launch current models into the Rob x.c. configuration of fleets and the continuation of offering new capabilities for future vehicles to be more robotic.
Q:What are the future plans for the robot taxi business, including fleet size, city rollouts, and partnership strategies?
A:In 2026, X will launch three different types of robot taxi models to support various mobility purposes and demands. The company aims to work with business partners like Aab for development support in technology, operations, and services. Plans include launching partnerships with service providers across different countries and cities to build a toolbox and interface capability for a successful commercial launch in varied environments.
Q:What is the projected long-term goal for human robot sales?
A:The long-term goal is to have one million human robot sales per year by 2030, driven by the quick ramp-up in technology and multiple applications in home, office, and factory settings.
Q:What details are available regarding the new passenger vehicle models, their segments, prices, and volume targets?
A:New passenger vehicles with prices targeted to be competitive in the market have been announced. Pricing details and volume targets for these models were mentioned in the speech, as well as the plans for their launch in both domestic and international markets in early 2026. The company aims to continue enhancing its product portfolio across various price segments.
Q:What are the growth potentials for the new Erev models in 2026?
A:Growth potentials for the new Erev models in 2026 are expected to be substantial, driven by different customer groups purchasing the vehicles for varied scenarios. The actual growth could be several times the quarterly growth when the new version of X9 is delivered. Specific data for quarter 4 and the first quarter of next year will be necessary to provide a more concrete answer.
Q:How do the company view the affordability and fuel economy of the humanoid robot?
A:The company believes that the pricing logic between cars and robots is very different. They anticipate that future retail sales prices for robots could be very similar to car prices. Additionally, they note that traditional car pricing is weight-based, whereas robots have a high percentage of software (over 50%) and require significant costs for training software and integration. Despite the challenges, the company aims to make robots affordable and empowering for households.
Q:Can you provide an update on the progress of overseas localized production for next year and how smart driving capabilities will drive sales growth in international markets?
A:The company has initiated localized production in the second half of the year with a factory in Indonesia and a partnership with Magna in Austria. They anticipate a rise in production volume for these plants to support overseas growth, aiming for tens of thousands of locally produced vehicles in Europe and a few thousand in Indonesia. The company is also exploring additional opportunities for local capabilities in other markets and local supply chain integration. Smart driving capabilities are intended to drive sales growth in international markets, with the company looking for higher profits and growth from international businesses compared to the domestic market.
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