At the annual meeting of the China Chief Economist Forum, experts deeply discussed topics such as the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center, the outlook for global financial and capital markets, the new policies of Trump, and the relationship between China and the United States. Special attention was paid to how fiscal policies can promote consumption and expand domestic demand, pointing out the foundation and pillar role of fiscal policy in national governance. Suggestions were made to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, increase subsidies to specific groups, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, etc., in order to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness, and thus promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy.

The focus of the discussion is on how to further improve the structure of national income distribution, increase the proportion of middle and low-income groups in national income, through reforming the tax system, increasing transfer payments, accelerating the marketization and circulation of rural land, etc. Especially by improving the tax system, promoting income distribution fairness through the reform of personal income tax, thus enhancing consumption. At the same time, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, shifting from investment to a balance between investment and consumption, to achieve supply-demand balance. In addition, deepening the reform of the household registration system, raising the standards of rural pension insurance, are all measures aimed at promoting consumption and optimizing economic structure.

In the discussion, experts focused on how macroeconomic policies affect consumption, savings, and the real estate market, and also explored the role of policy regulation in stabilizing economic growth, promoting structural transformation, and preventing financial risks. They particularly emphasized the impact of housing prices on residents' consumption and savings decisions, pointing out the difference between real estate development and housing price bubbles. They also proposed adjustment strategies for fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the importance of structural reforms. Experts held different views on whether future policies should be tightened or adjusted, but generally agreed that current policies still need to be further optimized to promote healthy economic development.

The discussion focused on whether the current policy measures are sufficient to support economic growth, especially in regards to the economic outlook for the fourth quarter and next year. Participants believe that the basket of policies implemented since September 26 has made significant breakthroughs that were previously unseen, from fiscal policy to monetary policy, all demonstrating the government's determination to stabilize the economy. However, there is uncertainty regarding the long-term effectiveness and direction of these policies, especially considering the stability of the real estate market and changes in external demand. They also explored ways to stimulate the economy through fiscal stimulus, promote consumption, address local government debt, and utilize state-owned assets to boost consumption and economic growth. In addition, the discussion also touched on how to increase the proportion of consumption in GDP by adjusting income distribution structure, and how to overcome the bottleneck of income growth through internationalization.

The discussion focused on how to effectively encourage consumption, analyzing the consumption tendencies and changing consumption demands of different age groups. It particularly emphasized the preference of young people for cultural-related products and services, suggesting that policies should focus more on meeting these demands. In addition, the interaction between fiscal policy and monetary policy was also explored, as well as how these policies can better promote economic growth and consumption. Predictions were made on the future trends of interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the exchange rate of the Renminbi, emphasizing the importance of unblocking the transmission of monetary policy.

In the keynote speech session, the discussion focused on the importance of real estate for stable economic growth. It was pointed out that the stability of the real estate market not only directly affects economic growth, but also has a significant impact on overall economic recovery through driving related upstream and downstream industries and influencing consumer spending. In addition, it was emphasized that policies need to be more proactive to ensure the achievement of economic growth goals by 2025.

The focus of China's economic development outlook in 2025 is on expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption and investment, as well as stabilizing the real estate market. Policymakers need to focus on how to effectively implement fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth. In addition, infrastructure investment is seen as one of the important drivers of economic growth and needs to be given priority attention and investment. There are downside risks in the real estate market, which need to be stabilized through policy support. Overall, the expected economic growth in 2025 is influenced by domestic and international conditions, and stability growth needs to be achieved through extraordinary adjustment measures and expectation management.

The conversation focused on the economic outlook and policy recommendations for 2025. On one hand, there is a moderate optimistic view towards the economy in 2025, despite the uncertainties in the external environment such as the potential impact of "Trump 2.0", it is believed that these risks can be hedged through the diversification of export structure and utilizing the resilience of globalization. It is expected that domestic demand will gradually improve, and the government is taking a series of measures to counter deflation, such as lowering interest rates and increasing consumer subsidies, aimed at stimulating consumption and economic recovery. The importance of the continuity and expansion of consumer subsidy policy, as well as the necessity of subsidizing the service industry to promote employment and income growth, are particularly emphasized. Furthermore, key issues such as adjustments in the real estate market, coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy are also mentioned. Overall, the economic strategy for 2025 emphasizes stimulating domestic demand, policy flexibility, and measures to address external shocks.

The dialogue focused on issues related to income, employment, especially the employment of young people, while also discussing the effectiveness of childbirth subsidies and the challenges they pose to policy-making. It proposed increasing the openness of the service industry and improving the business environment as strategies to promote employment and income growth. In addition, it explored consumption stimulus measures, such as providing subsidies for home decoration, and boosting consumer confidence and household wealth effects through stabilizing the stock market and real estate market. Furthermore, the potential impact of long-term interest rates on the economy and the banking industry was discussed, emphasizing the interest rate game between macroeconomic policies and economic recovery.

At the 2025 Chinese Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting, experts shared insights into the current economic situation and discussed strategies for asset allocation. Facing significant volatility in the stock market, a bull market in the bond market, record-high gold prices, and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, experts advised institutions and individuals to adopt a balanced strategy, focusing on high-dividend, low-volatility equity assets, while also keeping an eye on high-tech areas such as AI and new energy. In addition, experts emphasized the role of cognitive productivity in promoting high-quality economic development, and proposed how the capital market should respond to the development of new productive forces. The forum also discussed the potential of new fields such as low-altitude economy, and looked ahead to future trends in the economy and investments.

In the current economic situation, the deep integration of technological innovation and capital markets is the key to promoting high-quality economic development. By analyzing successful cases such as M7 Company, we recognize the importance of patient capital for the growth of technology companies, as well as the huge potential returns on technology investments. As the world's second-largest economy, China faces new challenges in technology competition and needs to achieve "me Better" on the basis of "me too" products, that is, surpassing existing standards through innovation and market adjustments. In addition, the widespread adoption of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots is expected to significantly increase total factor productivity, thereby driving fundamental changes in production relations. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to reform the capital market deeply, optimize existing stocks, and promote the development of new productivity. The government and the private sector need to increase support for scientists and hard technology, invest in long-term, hard technology projects through means such as technology finance, and promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, ultimately achieving high-quality economic development.

This meeting focuses on the new intelligent productivity and future industrial layout, emphasizing the importance of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence in the future development of industries. The key discussions include industrial intelligence, industrial digitization, Chinese-style modernization, and the application of artificial intelligence in various industries. In addition, it also emphasizes the role of private economy in the development of new intelligent productivity, and puts forward policy suggestions to promote the development of private economy. Finally, through roundtable discussions, the meeting delved into the related topics of the layout of new intelligent productivity and capital, pointing out that humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, AI, etc. will become key tracks for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

In this conversation, the focus is on how new productivity can drive the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, especially in the context of Chinese manufacturing. Participants discussed the essence of new productivity, emphasizing the importance of innovation and technological revolution, and pointing out that new productivity not only represents advanced production methods, but also involves elements such as green, low-carbon, innovation, coordination, and sustainable development. In particular, as a representative of the traditional energy industry, Sinopec has shown how to explore and develop new energy forms and solutions such as shale gas, controlled nuclear fusion, and hydrogen energy through transformation and upgrading in the context of new productivity. In addition, the discussion also touched on emerging industries such as smart cars and humanoid robots, demonstrating the huge potential of the combination of new productivity and manufacturing industry. From the perspective of the capital market, new productivity provides new investment opportunities, especially in the field of high-end manufacturing. In conclusion, it is emphasized that with the continuous advancement of technology and the deep integration of manufacturing industry, there may be a more concentrated industrial structure in the future, where large companies may occupy a more important position due to their technology input and innovation capabilities.

In the discussion, experts focused on the core of China's new productivity being innovation, with industry as the carrier and enterprises as the main implementer. The discussion mainly revolved around three directions: the transformation or reengineering of traditional industries, the rapid development of emerging industries, and the exploration of future industries. There was a special emphasis on the huge potential in areas such as AI artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and smart driving. At the same time, the important role of capital in driving the development of new productivity was mentioned, as well as the future changes and investment opportunities in the Chinese capital market. Experts believe that the organic combination of technological innovation and the capital market is key to promoting sustained economic growth and enhancing competitiveness in China.

The discussion highlighted that the strategic competition and comprehensive confrontation between China and the United States are long-term and dynamic, and this relationship is likened to a balanced state of dynamic games. China and the United States as mutually influential decisive variables, need to consider the possible reactions of the other when formulating strategies. The discussion pointed out that China is waiting for the policy actions of the United States in order to formulate corresponding countermeasures. In addition, the analysis also involved the impact of internal political struggles in the United States on Sino-US relations and the global economy. Specifically, the discussion addressed the changes in foreign policy of the Trump administration, the challenges in domestic politics, and how these changes might affect international capital markets and currency values. The discussion also touched on the stability of the Renminbi exchange rate and its role as a policy tool, predicting that the Renminbi exchange rate will fluctuate within a certain range. Finally, it pointed out the importance of the interactions between China and the United States, as well as the adjustments in political and economic strategies in the current global economic situation for the future relationship between the two countries and the global market.

The discussion first emphasized the political significance of the policy of expanding domestic demand proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference in China and the market's reaction to it, believing that the market has not fully priced in policy changes in China, especially in terms of the demand for policy certainty in a bear market mentality. In addition, the analysis explored the role of population quality and technological innovation in driving China's modernization, as well as the inspiration of Musk's innovation on China's technological development. Furthermore, the discussion addressed the impact of the US-China relationship, tariff issues, and global technological competition on the Chinese economy and market, particularly the potential impact of advancements in artificial intelligence and the semiconductor cycle on the economy. Overall, it emphasized the importance of policy response, technological revolution, and economic cycle patterns, as well as considerations for investment strategies in the current economic and market environment.

The year 2025 is predicted to be a year full of economic and capital market changes, especially for China. The resurgence of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's price-to-earnings ratio, the continued drag of the Chinese real estate market, and the outlook for economic cyclical recovery together constitute a major test for investors. In-depth analysis is proposed on various aspects such as the Chinese economic cycle, policy shift, and the global gold market, emphasizing the importance of finding opportunities in economic fluctuations. The outlook also specifically mentions stocks, gold, and government bonds as important investment targets, as well as the possible impact of policies, markets, and international situations in 2025 on investments. In general, despite the various challenges that may arise in 2025, investors still have a great opportunity to achieve good investment returns through correct strategic choices.

In the roundtable discussion on the outlook for the capital market in 2025, experts generally have a cautiously optimistic view of the stock market, believing that despite short-term market fluctuations, there are still investment opportunities in the long run. The discussion focused on the elasticity and volatility of the A-share market, emphasizing the potential impact of policies, interest rate levels, and technological innovation on the stock market. Experts presented predictions for the asset returns in 2025, with a special focus on the stock market, including investment opportunities in high dividend-yield assets and the technology sector. In addition, views on the bond and commodity markets were also mentioned, with expectations of decreased absolute returns in bonds and potential differentiation opportunities in the commodity market. The discussion also covered the impact of policy support, declining market interest rates, and the emergence of technology and artificial intelligence on the capital market. Overall, experts believe that despite uncertainties, investors can still find investment opportunities in 2025 by paying attention to policy trends, interest rate changes, and technological innovation.

In the discussion, experts focused on the current status and future prospects of the stock and bond markets, especially regarding investment opportunities. They pointed out that opportunities in the stock market often arise after market declines, while the current bond market is showing strength due to liquidity release. The experts also emphasized the importance of choosing the right investment strategy for investors, including timely adjustment opportunities and selecting bond products that can provide stable returns. In addition, they mentioned the impact of interest rate changes on the market and the potential influence of government policies on the economy and market trends.