AI硬件：机器人主题怎么投？
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会议摘要
Experts and fund managers discussed the current situation and trend of AI and robot industry in depth, pointing out that although the robot sector is not hot but has great potential, similar to the new energy industry in the early stage of the outbreak, technology and cost control is the key. It is recommended that ordinary investors focus on segments such as smart big models, smart hand design and sensors through indexation, emphasizing long-term holding and batch buying. With particular reference to the importance of optical modules in AI computing infrastructure, its overseas revenue characteristics and high growth performance can digest high valuations, it is recommended to invest in batches at low market sentiment. The overall emphasis on investment needs to be cautious, according to personal risk tolerance to choose the right way, to grasp the opportunity of the industrial explosion.
会议速览
GEM artificial intelligence and science chip: the difference between overseas computing chain and domestic computing chain and investment opportunities.The dialogue discussed the differences between the GEM artificial intelligence index and the CRE chip index, pointing out that the former focuses on overseas computing chains, especially in the field of optical modules, while the latter focuses more on domestic GPU computing chips and memory chips. As a key component in the AI computing infrastructure, the optical module has strong performance certainty, is greatly influenced by the capital expenditure of overseas Internet giants, and maintains a high business climate. Investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities in the overseas computing chain, while considering the potential growth points of the domestic computing chain.
GEM artificial intelligence index valuation and optical module industry prospect analysisThe dialogue discussed the high valuation of the GEM artificial intelligence index and the potential for future performance growth of the optical module industry, pointing out that despite the current high valuation, it is expected that future performance will maintain high growth, taking into account the strong demand for optical modules and industry barriers, thus digesting the high valuation.
Technology sector investment strategy: strategic emphasis and tactical flexibility.This paper discusses the investment value of GEM artificial intelligence and CRE chips in the context of the development of the AI industry, emphasizes the strategic importance of the science and technology sector, adopts flexible tactics to deal with high volatility, and recommends the investment in batches according to market sentiment to balance asset fluctuations and improve investment efficiency.
AI Bubble Concerns and Technology Asset Allocation ReshapingDiscussed the possibility of AI bubbles and technology asset allocation strategies, stressed the importance of focusing on the penetration of Internet giants' AI products and global token consumption, and considered positive cash flow to be key, and wary of risks arising from the imbalance between capital expenditure and free cash flow.
AI Development and Industry Cycle: Software and Hardware Synergy, Market Cognition and Technological ProgressDiscusses the dual impact of AI development on hardware and software companies, emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure. Take the new energy industry as an example to illustrate the market's initial underestimation of emerging technologies and high growth in the later period. It is pointed out that although AI is facing profitability doubts, it has shown value through cost optimization, and calls for attention to the role of AI in organizational change.
Analysis of AI industry chain and discussion on the reasons for the lag of robot plateThe dialogue discussed in depth the differences in the application of AI at home and abroad, especially the case of Internet giants using AI to accelerate game development. Mention the high growth rate of the upstream of the AI industry chain, such as optical modules and chips, in contrast to the lag of the downstream robot sector. The analysis points out that the main obstacle of low robot penetration lies in the dual constraints of technology and cost, and emphasizes its characteristics in the downstream application of the AI industry chain.
Investment Strategy of Robot Industry: The Choice between Index and Active ManagementIt is discussed that the robot industry is in the early stage, the technical route is uncertain, the penetration rate is low, it is suggested that the initial use of indexed investment to spread risk, as the industry matures, active stock selection may be more advantageous, the choice of investment methods should be based on personal preferences and market development stage decision.
Comparative Analysis of Investment Value of Robot Industry and Development Path of New Energy VehiclesThe dialogue analyzes the investment value of the robot industry at the current stage by comparing the development path of the new energy vehicle industry. It is pointed out that government policy promotion, technical feasibility and cost control are the key before the industrial outbreak, and investors are advised to focus on long-term strategy rather than short-term gains, and it is estimated that the penetration rate of the robot industry will increase significantly within ten years.
Comparison of Robot Technology Route between China and America: The Collision of Idealism and PragmatismThe dialogue explored the different paths of robotics development between China and the United States, with the United States pursuing idealistic generalist robots and China focusing on pragmatic specialist robots. China's route may be commercialized faster due to manufacturing needs and an aging population.
Commercialization Prospect and Cost Control Analysis of Humanoid RobotThe core of humanoid robot commercialization is cost control. China's supply chain has significant advantages in reducing the cost of parts and components, which promotes the rapid development of the industry. At present, the robot industry is in a similar stage before the outbreak of new energy vehicles, it is recommended to buy in batches when the index falls, to avoid chasing high.
Robot Development Difficulties and Future Space Discussion: Lack of Scene Data as a Key ConstraintThis paper discusses the current situation of the development of the robot industry, points out the difference between the physical large model and the traditional large model, and emphasizes that the lack of scene data is the core problem that restricts the development of robot intelligence. It is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of robot technology and the value of the subdivision plate, and emphasize that the long-term development potential of the robot track is huge and needs continuous attention.
Segmentation of the robot industry chain: intelligent large models, dexterous hands and sensorsThree key segments in the robotics industry are discussed, including the importance of intelligent large models and scene data, dexterous hand design challenges and their high requirements for precision components such as motors, and the central role of sensors in enabling robots to interact with the physical world. The key impact of technological breakthroughs in these areas on the commercialization of robots is emphasized.
How ordinary investors participate in AI and robot industry track investmentThe dialogue discussed the strategies of ordinary investors to participate in AI and robotics industry investment. It is recommended to invest through indexing rather than individual stocks to grasp the development trend of the industry. At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to specific index funds and remind market risks and prudent investment.
要点回答
Q：What is the difference between GEM artificial intelligence and CRE chips?
A：GEM artificial intelligence index mainly focuses on the GEM listed artificial intelligence-related companies, its rise and fall is larger, more flexible. Among them, a feature of the index is that its sub-sectors focus on the field of optical modules, optical modules in the AI computing infrastructure plays a role in high-speed data communication, accounting for more than 50% of the GEM artificial intelligence index weight. Moreover, most of the revenue of optical modules comes from overseas, which is different from other artificial intelligence indexes.
Q：How does this index differ from CRE AI and other AI-themed indices?
A：The main difference between the GEM AI Index and the CRE AI and other AI thematic indices related to the domestic computing chain is greater performance certainty. Due to the clear ratio between optical modules and GPUs, the growth of GPU demand from overseas Internet giants will drive the demand for optical modules, thus making the optical module business climate high and the performance growth rate relatively certain.
Q：In the case of high growth in GEM artificial intelligence, how to reasonably view its current position and valuation?
A：Although the absolute valuation of the GEM artificial intelligence index is high (about 82 times PE), for the high-growth sector, the key is to determine whether the high growth rate of future performance can digest the current static high valuation. From the existing research reports and data, the optical module sector is more likely to maintain a high performance growth rate, including overseas Internet giants continue to increase capital expenditure to buy GPU and its supporting optical modules, and the current supply of optical modules is in short supply, new competitors are difficult to quickly enter the market and obtain material resources.
Q：For investors who want to chase up GEM artificial intelligence, how should they make decisions?
A：Investors should pay attention to the long-term development of the AI industry cycle from a strategic point of view, and realize that both the CRE chip focusing on the domestic computing chain and the GEM artificial intelligence focusing on the overseas computing chain have their investment value. But in tactics, according to the market capital flow flexible adjustment investment strategy, the current science and technology chips are favored by funds, but whether the science and technology or GEM artificial intelligence are worthy of long-term attention.
Q：How do you balance tactically investing in highly volatile technology sectors, such as CRE chips and GEM artificial intelligence?
A：For this type of highly volatile technology sector, it is recommended to adopt a batch fixed investment strategy, but it is different from the conventional fixed-cycle fixed investment. This is done by adding positions in batches when the sentiment of the technology index is low, and the dimensions observed include short-term retracement of the index, reduction in turnover rate or turnover, and index falling to the bottom position.
Q：How do you tell where the tech index is at the bottom of sentiment?
A：Judging that the technology index is at the bottom of the sentiment can be observed from three aspects: first, the index has a significant pullback.
Q：What are the advantages of a fixed investment strategy in investing in the technology sector?
A：The fixed investment strategy not only helps to smooth costs, but more importantly, it can invest in a disciplined manner and help investors force entry in the event of market turmoil or unilateral downswings. Especially for the technology sector, which has some volatility, fixed investment is a relatively effective investment strategy.
Q：In the face of the big cycle development of the AI industry, how to deal with the market's concerns about the AI bubble?
A：To deal with the problem of AI bubble, we should pay attention to whether the penetration rate of AI products of Internet manufacturers has increased and the global growth trend of their consumption. If these two conditions are true at the same time, the risk of AI bubbles in the short term is relatively low. At the same time, it is important to pay attention to the relationship between the growth rate of capital expenditure of the Internet giants and free cash flow to avoid problems caused by capital breaks.
Q：For the AI sector, hardware companies make money and software companies do not make money will affect the continued development of the entire industry?
A：If only hardware companies make profits and software companies lose money, it may indeed affect the healthy development of the AI industry. The current situation is that Internet giants and software companies are increasing their capital expenditure AI, even in the face of cash flow pressure, because this is the key to future competition.
Q：How is the application of AI in China and what is the gap with overseas?
A：There may still be a certain gap in the penetration rate of AI applications in China compared with overseas, but at present, many short sentence content and Internet giant game development can see AI automatically generated applications. However, these are more used within the Internet giants and may be difficult for ordinary consumers to perceive intuitively.
Q：How has AI changed lives, and what stage is it currently in?
A：AI has profoundly changed all aspects of life and is in its early stages, not yet fully accessible to all areas. For the GEM in the direction of artificial intelligence, optical modules and new energy, investors need to carefully evaluate and configure.
Q：Why in this round of AI market, the robot plate is relatively backward?
A：The robot sector lags behind in the current round of AI market mainly due to its industrial chain position in the downstream application end, the penetration rate of products has not yet significantly exceeded expectations. At the same time, technical feasibility and cost are the key factors restricting the improvement of robot penetration.
Q：For robot-themed investments, what is the difference between choosing a robot index and an actively managed fund?
A：In the industry trend is not clear theme investment track, it is recommended to use index investment, because the robot industry's current technical route is not fixed, penetration rate is not high, it is difficult to judge which companies will become the leader. With the development of the industry and the technical route gradually clear, then the active stock selection may be more advantageous.
Q：How do you view the investment value of robots that have not yet realized their performance?
A：It can be referenced from the development path of the new energy industry. The current stage of the robot industry is similar to the new energy vehicle industry in 2015, and it is in the early stage of the explosion driven by government policies. Although there is no performance in the short term, from a strategic point of view, now is the best time to invest in the robotics industry.
Q：In terms of robot investment, why is it recommended to hold longer and not to do short term?
A：Because the outbreak of the robot industry is uncertain, if you buy and sell frequently, investors may not be able to accurately grasp the timing of the outbreak of the industry. Holding for longer periods of time contributes to more stable participation and benefits.
Q：What is the current stage of development and investment strategy of robots? What are the main difficulties in the development of robots?
A：At present, the robot track is equivalent to 15 years, 17 years of new energy track that stage, in the early stage of the industrial explosion. Tactically, when the index falls, it is recommended to invest in batches to participate, rather than chasing high buys. For investors who want to invest in robot tracks, they can lay out by focusing on sub-sectors such as the big model of aggregation intelligence. The main difficulty restricting the development of robots is the extreme lack of scene data for large physical models. Although the traditional large model can understand text and video information, it lacks the ability to interact with the real physical world, especially the lack of scene data in actual operation, which makes the robot unable to achieve the desired effect when performing specific tasks.
Q：In the current robot technology, what is the difference between the technical routes of China and the United States?
A：The technical route of the United States tends to be idealistic, represented by Tesla's humanoid robot, which is committed to building a general-purpose robot that can think independently and perform a variety of tasks, but the technology is extremely difficult and it is difficult to make a profit in the short term. On the other hand, China's technical route adheres to pragmatism and pays more attention to the specific application of robots in the manufacturing industry, such as screwing screws and moving boxes. The technical requirements are relatively low. Once the reliability reaches a certain level, it can be quickly put into use in factories. The commercialization process is faster.
Q：Why does China have a big advantage in the field of robotics?
A：China is a big manufacturing country with huge demand for manufacturing scenarios, and labor shortages have prompted companies to seek to reduce costs through robots. In addition, China's supply chain has the advantages of large-scale and industrial chain supporting, which can effectively reduce the cost of robot hardware, thereby promoting the large-scale commercialization of robots.
Q：What are the difficulties in the field of robotics, and how much space is there in the future?
A：The field of robotics faces many difficulties, including technology, upstream and downstream integration of the industrial chain, and how to achieve its fine operation and interaction in the real physical world. Although the development process is long, the future space of the robot industry is very large, so it is an investment track worthy of attention.
Q：What are the key links and technical requirements for robots to achieve dexterity similar to human hands?
A：To achieve dexterity similar to a human hand, each joint of the robot needs to be equipped with at least one motor to provide independent degrees of freedom. For example, a finger has three joints, I .e. three degrees of freedom. In addition, the palm swings left and right and turns up and down, requiring a total of about 21 motors. In addition, these motors must be light and wear-resistant to ensure the flexibility and durability of hand movements, while also putting high demands on precision components such as lead screws.
Q：How do robots use sensors to perceive and judge when interacting with the real physical world?
A：The robot perceives the environment through various sensors on its body. For example, visual sensors help the robot identify obstacles and make detour decisions. Pressure sensors allow the robot to sense the strength of grasping objects, thus adjusting the holding strength. In addition, in special environments, robots will also be equipped with temperature sensors, gas sensors, etc. to sense potential risks, and may use tactile sensors to achieve perception capabilities similar to human skin.
Q：How can ordinary investors participate in the investment of AI and the overall track of robots?
A：For ordinary investors, it is more difficult to directly invest in individual stocks to participate in the AI or robot track. It is recommended to adopt indexed investment methods, such as buying GEM artificial intelligence or robot-related index funds, through fixed investment or batch buying, Seize the average income opportunities brought by the outbreak of the entire industry. For example, the Southern GEM Artificial Intelligence and the Southern Robot Index's OTC linked funds are suitable for ordinary investors to participate in such track investments.
