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是德科技 (KEYS.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Keysight Technologies reported strong Q4 and full-year 2025 financials, including revenue and EPS growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and market trends. The company forecasts continued expansion in fiscal 2026, emphasizing software solutions, R&D investments, and operational efficiencies, while maintaining robust free cash flow and capital allocation strategies.
会议速览
Keysight Technologies' Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Highlights
Keysight Technologies discussed fiscal fourth quarter earnings, emphasizing non-GAAP measures and core growth. Forward-looking statements and upcoming investor conferences were also addressed.
Keysight's Robust Growth Driven by AI, Wireless, and Defense Innovations
Keysight showcases strong fiscal performance with significant growth in orders, revenue, and EPS. The company leverages its leadership in AI infrastructure, wireless technologies, and defense modernization, bolstered by strategic acquisitions. Keysight's focus on innovation, customer engagement, and expanding its portfolio positions it well for future opportunities in various high-demand sectors.
Keysight's Fiscal Year 25: Record Revenue, Strategic Growth, and Enhanced Services
Keysight achieved fiscal year 25 with record revenue, exceeding 150 strategic engagements, and expanding its customer base with over 3000 new logos. The company's services business reached record revenue, driven by demand for premium offerings. Financial highlights include Q4 revenue of $1419 million, orders of $1533 million, and full-year earnings per share growth of 14%. Keysight's balance sheet ended with $900 million in cash and cash equivalents, reflecting robust cash flow from operations and free cash flow.
Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Acquisitions Drive Future Growth for Keysight
Keysight highlights significant financial achievements, including billion-dollar acquisitions and robust cash flow, while outlining strategic plans for future revenue growth through synergies, investments in R&D, and mitigating tariffs, aiming for sustained performance across diverse industries.
Outlook for Wireless Technology Growth and Keysight's Strategic Positioning
The dialogue covers optimism about wireless technology growth driven by stabilization in EDG and advancements in technology areas. Keysight is positioned to benefit from AI stack innovations, including networking, with a robust pipeline and order strength. The company aims for $100 million in annual synergies from acquisitions, expecting operational efficiencies to enhance margins over time.
Timing of Wireline Business Growth Amid Hyperscaler Investment and Long-Term Technology Trends
The discussion focuses on the timing discrepancy between the wireline business's growth and hyperscaler investments, attributing it to AI cluster build-outs and long-term technological advancements. It highlights the positive impact of the supply chain dynamics on the business and the company's strategic positioning within the evolving technology landscape for sustained growth.
NVIDIA's Strategic Investment in Nokia for AI-Powered 6G Network Development
NVIDIA's $1 billion investment in Nokia aims to develop AI-powered networks for 6G infrastructure. The dialogue discusses the standardization timeline for 6G, expected around 2028-2029, and highlights current collaborations between NVIDIA and operators to evaluate GPU and AI accelerator deployment in RAN environments. Exciting advancements include concurrent modeling of RAN and AI workloads, and integrated compute and connectivity infrastructure solutions.
Exploring New Capabilities & M&A Impact on Revenue in Aerospace and Wireless Markets
A discussion on integrating advanced positioning technology across various markets, highlighting opportunities in automotive, aerospace defense, and wireless sectors. The dialogue also outlines the anticipated revenue contribution from recent acquisitions, noting a strong Q1 performance with subsequent quarters expected to be relatively consistent.
Discussion on DPS Growth, M&A Impact, and Incremental Margins
The dialogue covers inquiries about achieving over 10% DPS growth despite dilution, the effect of mergers and acquisitions on organic revenue growth, and maintaining around 40% incremental margins post-integration, considering factors like tariffs and profitability improvements.
Revenue Growth Projections and Tariff Mitigation Strategies for Key Business Segments
The dialogue discusses expected revenue growth across various business segments, highlighting AI and wireless as significant growth drivers, while acknowledging slower growth in automotive. It also covers the company's progress in offsetting tariffs ahead of schedule, thanks to effective pricing strategies and managing pre-tariff orders, reducing future exposure.
Discussion on Achieving Operating Margins and Silicon Photonics in Networking and AI
A discussion unfolds on achieving previously set operating margin targets amidst business downturns and the potential of silicon photonics in scaling networking and AI technologies. The dialogue highlights the company's commitment to profitability and innovation, despite the challenges posed by market corrections, and explores opportunities for growth through acquisitions and technological advancements.
High-Speed Silicon Optics Demand Drives RD and Validation in AI and Networking
The dialogue discusses the increasing demand for high-speed silicon optics, interconnect accelerators, and custom silicon, driving significant RD and validation activities. It highlights concurrent industry challenges including speed, power efficiency, and density improvements. The conversation also touches on the benefits of AI-driven investments in semiconductor businesses and the early growth potential in silicon photonics as it transitions from RD to commercial production.
Aerospace & Defense Growth Amid Allies' Budget Expansion and Automotive Sector's Stabilization
Aerospace and defense industry shows strength with increased orders from allies, benefiting from technological advancements and portfolio positioning. Automotive sector stabilizes with growth in software-defined vehicles, electric vehicle solutions, and manufacturing investments, indicating potential for future progress.
AI Impact on Wireline Business and Growth of Software Services in Tech Ecosystem
A discussion unfolds on the significant influence of AI on the wireline business, highlighting its record year growth and pivotal role in next-gen technologies. The dialogue also explores the strategic focus on expanding software and services, emphasizing the potential for increased market presence through mergers and acquisitions, and the creation of lifecycle value for customers.
Investment Priorities, RD Intensity, and Free Cash Flow Outlook
Discussion covers strategic investments in RD, particularly in AI, data centers, and 5G, with a focus on maintaining competitive advantage in software assets. Free cash flow remains strong, with expectations of continued conversion above 90% despite integration-related expenses.
要点回答
Q:What were the financial results for Keysight's fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2025?
A:For the fourth quarter, Keysight's financial results were as follows: orders grew 14%, revenue increased 10%, and EPS rose 16%. For the full year, orders and revenue rose 8%, and EPS increased 14%.
Q:What are the drivers of growth in the Communication Solutions Group?
A:The Communication Solutions Group's growth is driven by AI infrastructure build-outs, rapid upgrades to the technology stack, and the demand across the workflow from silicon design to system validation and secure deployments. This includes redesigns across AI, silicon, DSPs, switches, and transceivers, as well as the scaling of AI workloads and the transition from 400 to 800 gig and 1.6 tera optical speed refresh cycles.
Q:What is the impact of AI on various technology segments according to the transcript?
A:AI is having a significant impact across various technology segments, driving greater design, emulation, and test intensity. This includes transitions in computing, networking, interconnects, memory, and power to support the rapid scaling of AI workloads. The demand is across solutions that span from AI to silicon design and is accelerating new designs across the technology stack.
Q:How is Keysight contributing to the future of AI infrastructure and data centers?
A:Keysight is advancing the future of AI infrastructure and data centers by driving developments in CPO and LPO technologies with a comprehensive portfolio of physical layer solutions and AI emulation. The company is collaborating with industry leaders and shaping industry standards, as demonstrated by their partnership with Meta at the Open Compute Project Conference. Keysight's AI Data Center Builder has won an award for its innovation in the European Conference on Connectivity. The company is actively involved with industry consortia and contributing to the shaping of future AI and data center infrastructure.
Q:What are the highlights of the wireless segment's performance?
A:The wireless segment experienced high single-digit growth in orders and revenue for the full year, outperforming expectations. This growth is attributed to ongoing standards evolution, non-terrestrial networks, and early 6G research. The segment is engaged with industry leaders in advancing direct-to-sell connectivity and new LEO designs. The momentum is particularly strong in non-terrestrial networks, with contributions from best-in-class precision location simulators that enhance the next generation of positioning, navigation, and timing use cases. The industry is also focusing on early pre-standard designs for 6G, and Keysight is well positioned with engagements across several market-defining customers.
Q:What are the key developments in the defense and security sectors for Keysight?
A:In the defense and security sectors, Keysight is seeing strong customer engagement in defense modernization, enhanced deterrence capabilities, and operational readiness. There is a growing investment in emerging technologies such as space and satellite autonomous systems, advanced antenna designs, and related technologies. The company secured key wins with US prime contractors to accelerate automated device verification and advanced component analysis capabilities. These capabilities are being leveraged for applications in radar and tactical communication, as well as for capturing wide-band signal recording data for lab analysis. With its leadership across RF, digital, and optical technologies, Keysight is well positioned to capitalize on the expanding defense and security market demand.
Q:What specific areas are driving investment and demand for the company's solutions?
A:Investment and demand for the company's solutions are being driven by semiconductor 6G, quantum, and photonics initiatives, particularly outside of the US, where the company benefits from its global scale and local engagement in the semiconductor industry.
Q:How has the recent acquisition of the Optical Solutions Group impacted the company?
A:The acquisition of the Optical Solutions Group has expanded the company's photonics portfolio, and is helping to advance the company's market and customer engagement model to deepen long-standing strategic relationships while acquiring new customers and opportunities as the global supply chain shifts.
Q:What is the significance of the recent strategic engagements and new customer acquisitions?
A:The strategic engagements with market-defining innovators and the addition of more than 3000 new logos signify the company's growing customer base and its ability to reach thousands of customers globally through events and industry standards bodies participation.
Q:What does the performance of the company's services business indicate?
A:The performance of the company's services business, which has reached record revenue, indicates robust demand for key site care premium offerings, reflecting the company's growing services business.
Q:What are the financial highlights of the fiscal year 25?
A:Fiscal year 25 marks a return to growth with fourth quarter revenue above the high end of guidance and reported orders up 14%. Full year results show revenue of $5 billion, 8% as reported or 7% on a core basis, with gross margin at 65% and operating margin at 26%, and earnings per share of $1.60, up 14% for the year.
Q:What is the expected revenue growth and other financial metrics for the first quarter of fiscal year 26?
A:For the first quarter of fiscal year 26, the company expects revenue in the range of $1530 million to $1550 million, representing 19% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with recent acquisitions contributing to the growth. The company also expects Q1 earnings per share to be in the range of $1.95 to $2.05.
Q:What is the significance of standards in the deployment of technology?
A:The significance of standards in the deployment of technology is that they serve as mile markers for how deployments will occur, often indicating a time frame before global deployments may happen.
Q:What new opportunities are emerging from the changing technology stack?
A:New opportunities are emerging from the changing technology stack, specifically in the areas of Gpus and AI accelerators being deployed in Ran environments and the concurrent exploration of compute and connectivity infrastructure using wireline and wireless portfolios.
Q:How is the acquired SPE positioning business expected to add value to the portfolio?
A:The acquired SPE positioning business is expected to add value by bringing unique capabilities in positioning, navigation, and time to the portfolio. It simulates and emulates satellite environments in the lab, and its integration into the portfolio is anticipated to enhance different end markets, especially automotive and autonomous systems.
Q:What is the expected contribution of M&A revenue to the company's growth?
A:The expected contribution of M&A revenue to the company's growth is estimated to be roughly 75% in the first quarter and 20% into eisg. The revenue is seasonally weighted more heavily towards the first quarter, but it is expected to be relatively evenly distributed thereafter.
Q:How should investors think about the impact of M&A on organic revenue growth and incremental margins?
A:Investors should think about the impact of M&A on organic revenue growth and incremental margins as being consistent with historical organic revenue growth of 40% or more incremental margins, factoring in the potential for improved profitability via synergies and efficiency captures post integration.
Q:What is the expected growth for wireline and wireless segments?
A:The wireline segment is benefiting from AI investment and is expected to be a significant growth driver going forward. For wireless, growth is anticipated to align with the targeted growth levels for commercial comps, which was not specified in the transcript. In the industrial businesses, a 4 to 6% growth is anticipated, with strength in semiconductors offset by some continued questions in the automotive sector.
Q:How are tariffs being managed and what context allows for the quicker offset?
A:Tariffs are being managed with an expectation to offset them sooner than previously anticipated. This is due to the lower end of the annualized tariff range guiding at 100 to 175 million, which is trending lower. Additionally, stronger business performance, pricing, and surcharging mitigations are ramping faster than expected. The company has also intentionally honored all outstanding orders pre-tariff, reducing future exposure to tariffs.
Q:What is the revised outlook for achieving the 31% to 32% operating margin goal?
A:The achievement of the 31% to 32% operating margin goal is now seen as further away than previously anticipated. The downturn from fiscal 23 to 24 impacted this, and the business was operating at 29% prior to that. While the fundamentals of value creation and the operating model remain intact, it will take some time to return to the previous 29% levels and then climb back to the 31% to 32% target.
Q:When can we expect volume deployments in silicon photonics and how does this relate to the 800 to 1.6 T trends?
A:There is a scaling element in the demand for high-speed silicon photonics and interconnect accelerators, driving both design and R&D activities. The industry is experiencing a design refresh across the network with a focus on 1.6 Tb waves ahead. Key technology has demonstrated solutions for 1.6 and 3.2 Tb. Challenges such as increasing speed, power reduction at the same speed, and improving density are driving intense R&D and design emulation, which is where silicon photonics can play a role. The transition from R&D to commercial production is expected to continue, with growth anticipated in the next year.
Q:What is the strength seen in the aerospace and defense segment and what does it indicate?
A:The aerospace and defense segment has shown strength, but the transcript does not provide specific details on the causes of this strength, such as budget broadening or new program initiations. It was anticipated that these factors could contribute to the strength observed. Additionally, there was a positive uptick in auto orders year over year, and the question of where green shoots are emerging in the automotive sector was raised, but no direct answers were given regarding this topic.
Q:What regions and technology areas are showing strength for the company?
A:Europe was showing strength, and the company's portfolio, with a focus on defense technology and particular emphasis on speed and agility, is well-positioned with emerging technologies.
Q:How is the automotive and energy business performing and what areas are showing growth?
A:The automotive and energy business has reached a level of stability at current levels, despite full-year orders being down. However, year-over-year growth was seen in the fourth quarter across software-defined vehicles, electric vehicles (ESI), and manufacturing, with investments increasing in the software-defined vehicle space, vehicle networks, advanced connectivity, advanced sensing and radar, and chip design.
Q:What is the outlook for the wireline business and how is it contributing to the AI ecosystem?
A:The wireline business had a record year, growing double-digitly. It contributes significantly to next-generation technologies and AI clusters through a broad set of tools across physical and protocol layers of emulation. The commercial communications segment is a little under half of the wireline business, and both are growing strongly with robust customer adoption.
Q:How does the company plan to leverage recent acquisitions in software and services?
A:The recent acquisitions of the optical solutions group and SPARTA have been integrated into the software and services portfolio, providing a meaningful uplift and the ability to create life cycle value for customers while capturing value for the P&L.
Q:Where are the company's current investment priorities, and how should one think about future RD intensity?
A:The company's investments are in a cohesive portfolio ranging from physical layer protocol emulations to applications like the design space, with plans to refresh the portfolio as new technologies emerge. The company expects to continue investing in technology and AI, which will result in an increase in R&D spending. However, the investments are expected to help outperform the market under various conditions, and the company aims to maintain its competitive advantage.
Q:What are the main focuses for integration efforts, and how should priorities be considered for future R&D investments?
A:The main areas of focus for integration are the market and the back office, with some opportunities to align and share costs across the portfolio. The company is looking for leverage in other parts of the business. Future R&D investments should continue to prioritize innovation across the portfolio, with particular attention to physical layer technology refreshes and new product introductions in both traditional and AI-related areas.
Q:What factors drove solid free cash flow this quarter and what is the expectation for free cash flow conversion next year?
A:The company experienced solid free cash flow this quarter due to good conversion of non-GAAP net income into profitability. There will be additional integration-related expenses during the year, which may put some pressure on free cash flow conversion. However, these expenses are expected to be a small proportion of the overall total, and the company still expects strong free cash flow conversion next year.
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