苹果公司 (AAPL.US) 2025财年第三季度业绩电话会
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Apple reported a June quarter revenue record of $94 billion, driven by strong performances in iPhone, Mac, and services. The company saw notable growth in iPhone 16 family sales, Mac revenue, and services revenue. Apple is significantly increasing its investments in AI, focusing on integrating AI features across platforms in a personal, private, and seamless manner. The company also discussed the impact of tariffs, expectations for mid to high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the September quarter, and its commitment to investing heavily in the United States and diversifying its supply chain. Additionally, Apple reported a 4% growth in the Greater China region, driven by an acceleration in iPhone sales and substantial year-over-year growth in Mac sales.
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Apple Inc. announced its performance for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, reporting revenue of $94 billion and earnings per share reaching a new high for the June quarter at $1.507, a 12% year-on-year increase. The company saw accelerated growth in most markets worldwide, especially in Greater China and many emerging markets. Additionally, iPhone, Mac, and service businesses all achieved double-digit growth, with iPhone experiencing growth in all geographical regions, especially in emerging markets like India, the Middle East, South Asia, and Brazil. The company also showcased new designs, including the use of Liquid Glass material, and new advancements in artificial intelligence, featuring new features and support for multiple languages, at WWDC.

Apple Inc. achieved significant performance growth in the latest quarter, with iPhone revenue reaching $44.6 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, setting a record for June quarterly upgrade users. The iPhone 16 series performed particularly well, with sales achieving strong double-digit year-on-year growth. In addition, the Mac business also showed strong performance, with revenue reaching $8 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, mainly due to the strong performance of the M4 MacBook Air. iPad revenue was $6.6 billion, while revenue from wearables, home, and accessories business reached $7.4 billion, with Apple Watch upgrade users setting a record for the June quarter.
Service revenue also reached a new high, at $27.4 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase. In terms of product innovation, Apple introduced multiple new features and updates, including real-time call screening for the iPhone, updates for MacOS, major upgrades for iPad OS, and smart work application updates for Apple Watch. At the same time, Apple continued to focus on health and safety features, with its health and safety features having a profound impact on user's lives.
In the services sector, Apple TV+ received 81 Emmy Award nominations, Apple Music celebrated its tenth anniversary, and announced multiple new features. Additionally, Apple made progress in expanding into emerging markets, including opening new stores in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India. Apple Inc. also emphasized its commitment to social responsibility and sustainable development, including commitments to material recycling and support for US manufacturing.

Apple Inc. announced its second quarter financial report, with revenue reaching $94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new June quarter record. Product revenue reached $66.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, mainly driven by the growth in sales of iPhone and Mac. Services revenue reached $27.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, hitting a historical high. iPhone revenue was $44.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, Mac revenue was $8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while iPad revenue was $6.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Apple Watch and accessories revenue were $7.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Customer satisfaction and loyalty for all product categories remain high, and the installed base of active devices has reached a historical high.

Apple Inc. performed well in the June quarter, with significant revenue growth in multiple business categories, including cloud services, especially achieving a record high annual growth rate for paid iCloud accounts. Customer engagement in service business continued to grow, with transactions and paid accounts reaching historical highs, and paid account growth reaching double digits. The company has over one billion paid subscription users. Additionally, Apple made progress in the enterprise sector, with companies like PayPal and Roche increasing their investment in Apple products to drive employee innovation and productivity. Mac and enterprise business in Thailand performed the best in the June quarter.

Siam Commercial Bank has deployed thousands of iPads in each branch to enhance efficiency and quality in banking services, including loan services and wealth management. Meanwhile, CAE uses Apple Vision Pro technology to help pilots become more familiar with flight procedures, thus improving the effectiveness of actual flight simulation training.

In the most recent quarter, Apple held $133 billion in cash and marketable securities, with a total debt of $102 billion, resulting in a net cash position of $310 billion. The company returned over $27 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including $3.9 billion in dividends and equivalents and $21 billion in stock buybacks. For the next quarter, Apple expects total revenue to grow in the mid to high single digits year-over-year, with service revenue growth rate similar to the previous quarter. Gross margin is forecasted to be between 46% and 47%, operating expenses between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion, and operating profit is expected to be -$25 million. Additionally, the board of directors announced a cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable to eligible shareholders on August 14, 2025.

In the conversation, the analyst asked Apple about whether the upgrade rates for the iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch have increased due to factors such as product features, tariff incentives, or Apple's ecosystem, and whether these upgrade records stem from a stronger upgrade demand or a continually growing installed base. Additionally, the analyst also inquired about capital expenditure (CapEx) related issues.

The company's capital expenditures have increased significantly this year, driven mainly by increased investment in the field of AI, the construction of private cloud computing and data centers, and the adoption of a mixed strategy involving both third-party and self-built facilities. In addition, product upgrades, such as the strong performance of the iPhone 16 series, have also promoted upgrade records, indicating a trend towards migration to Apple Ion and the key role of Apple Silicon performance. In discussions about the impact of tariffs, market demand in April has increased prematurely, with an estimated 10% of purchasing behavior being a response to discussions regarding tariffs.

After the quarterly financial report released by Apple, reports indicated that the search volume of Safari browser saw a decrease for the first time in April. However, the company's service business grew by 13% this quarter, indicating that the downward trend in April did not continue to impact the overall performance of the quarter. As for whether the rise of AI platforms has affected the strategic value of Apple products as a search entry point, the company stated that consumer behavior is indeed evolving, but Apple products still have a high value, and the company is closely monitoring this change.

In the most recent quarter, Apple's business in the Greater China region grew by 4%, driven mainly by accelerated iPhone sales and significant growth in Mac sales. This growth is partly attributed to government subsidy policies affecting some products. Apple's installed base in China reached a historic high, and the iPhone installed base also reached an all-time high. In mainland China, most customers purchasing Macs, iPads, and Apple Watches are new users. Additionally, iPhones rank in the top three sales models in urban China, while the MacBook Air and Mac mini have become the best-selling laptop and desktop models in China, showing a very positive market performance overall.

During the discussion, Apple expressed confidence in the progress of AI technology, especially in the development of personalized features for Siri, and plans to release new related features in the next year. The company is significantly increasing its investment in the field of AI, optimizing team structure, and working to deeply integrate AI features into its platform to provide a more personalized user experience. At the same time, the company expressed excitement for future product roadmap but did not disclose specific details.

The conversation discussed the company's revenue growth expectations from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, explaining the reasons for lowering the growth expectations from 13% to the mid to high single digits. The main reasons include market demand impact related to tariffs and the high base effect brought by the full launch of iPads in the third quarter of last year. At the same time, it was pointed out that foreign exchange rates have a relatively small impact on this change.

The discussion focused on the growth of Apple's services sector, particularly the role of Google Pay in its ecosystem, and the potential strategies Apple may adopt if Google Pay is restricted. In addition, the trend of reduced dependence on screen devices in the future with the development of AI was also explored, along with how Apple views and prepares to address this change, emphasizing the comprehensive functionality of the iPhone and the possibility of future devices coexisting rather than replacing them.

The discussion focused on the impact of the 1.1 billion tariff assumption on the company's September quarter, as well as how to offset this adverse effect by increasing investment and production in the United States, such as building ships in Arizona and producing semiconductors in 24 factories across 12 states, while maintaining or further developing tariffs. The investment in MP materials was also mentioned, indicating that the company is actively exploring more countermeasures.

The service department of Apple Inc. achieved a significant growth of 13% in the most recent quarter, reaching a record of $27.4 billion, with strong performance in both developed and emerging markets. Regarding the impact of the Epic Games lawsuit, Apple stated that it has implemented changes required by the court since June, although it did not provide specific details on the impact, it confirmed that the US App Store achieved double-digit growth and set a new historical high. Apple will continue to monitor the impact of the lawsuit on its business, while striving for innovation to ensure the best user experience on the App Store and provide good business opportunities for developers.

The discussion focused on the company's supply chain strategy, especially regarding production layout in India, China, and Southeast Asia, and how to address unexpected challenges in the Indian market. In addition, the sales performance of the iPhone in the June quarter was analyzed, looking at factors other than promotions driving sales, as well as the impact of tariffs and the country of origin on the business.

Apple emphasized that most of its products are covered by Section 2 and Section 32 investigations, with the recent tariffs mainly coming from China. The majority of iPhones sold in the United States are sourced from India, while Mac, iPad, and Watch are primarily manufactured in China. The company expects to continue increasing investments in the United States in the future, including projects on new materials and manufacturing institutes, and emphasizes the production of chips and iPhone components in the United States. In addition, the company mentioned the strong sales performance of the iPhone 16 series and the positive impact of the newly launched 16E on overall performance.

In recent discussions, Apple analyzed in detail the channel inventory situation of the iPhone in the June quarter, pointing out that inventory in that quarter had decreased and was at the low end of its target range. At the same time, the company also mentioned that market discussions had a slight impact on iPhone sales, believing that these discussions had approximately a 1 percentage point effect on the company's overall growth.

The conversation explored how artificial intelligence (AI) as one of the most profound technologies of this century, will significantly impact all devices, especially the future evolution of edge devices such as smartphones. Although the specific strategies and the level of commoditization of AI chains were not discussed in detail, it emphasized the core role of AI in device innovation.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that Apple noticed abnormal sales patterns for iPhone and Mac, primarily in April and mostly in the US market. Additionally, tariffs were discussed, including the estimated tariffs from the previous quarter and their impact on the current quarter, as well as the uncertainty surrounding potential tariff changes in future quarters.

In this discussion, the company's financial personnel explained in detail the impact of exchange rates on the company's quarterly performance, pointing out that the exchange rate fluctuations in this quarter have almost no impact on the company's revenue and gross profit margin, and it is also expected to have minimal impact in the next quarter. At the same time, it was mentioned in the discussion that the company's capital expenditure (CapEx) has seen a significant increase, mainly attributed to heavy investments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Although capital expenditures will not show exponential growth, substantial improvement is expected. In addition, the company also mentioned other expenses related to investments in facilities and retail stores, as well as the adoption of a mixed model, utilizing both third-party infrastructure and self-built infrastructure.

At WWDC, Apple showcased updates to Vision Pro, including new methods for spatial widgets, themes, and content creation, demonstrating a strong momentum towards advancing in the field of AI glasses. Although currently focusing mainly on enterprise applications, Apple has expressed openness to expanding the use cases of Vision Pro and integrating it with more devices. The release of Vision OS 26 marks significant progress in customized digital spaces, more realistic personalized representations, and enterprise APIs, which have received positive feedback from customer groups such as CE. While unwilling to disclose specific roadmaps, Apple has clearly stated their high level of attention and confidence in this field.

The company expressed an open attitude towards accelerating the roadmap of AI development. This year, it has acquired about 7 companies covering different fields, not limited to the direction of AI. The company is open to mergers and acquisitions and is not limited by the size of the company, as long as the company can accelerate its development roadmap, it is of interest to them. In addition, the conference also provided playback information for this discussion, including various channels for playback.
要点回答
Q:Which product categories contributed to Apple's revenue growth in the June quarter?
A:Apple's June quarter revenue growth was driven by double-digit growth across iPhone, Mac, and services.
Q:What were the highlights of Apple's recent WWDC event?
A:During WWDC, Apple announced a new design for its products crafted from a material called Liquid Glass, which is the first time the design has extended across all platforms. The company also announced new capabilities for AI work, including live translation and Workout Buddy, and opened up access to on-device Foundation models.
Q:What are Apple's plans regarding AI integration across its devices and platforms?
A:Apple is embedding AI across its devices and platforms, with a strategy to make advanced technologies accessible and easy to use for everyone. The company is significantly growing its investments in AI and has already released more than 20 Apple intelligence features, with progress on a more personalized Siri expected to be released next year.
Q:How did iPhone 16 family performance contribute to Apple's revenue?
A:The iPhone 16 family had a strong, broad-based performance, with double-digit year-over-year growth, contributing to the $44.6 billion in revenue for the quarter. It was driven by the popularity of the iPhone 16 family and the milestone of shipping the three billionth iPhone since its launch in 2007.
Q:What updates and performance did the Mac line receive in Q3?
A:In Q3, Mac had another strong quarter with revenue up 15% year over year, with the M4 MacBook Air being a key driver. The Mac line set a June quarter record for upgraders and showed strong double-digit growth in both revenue and upgraders, as well as customer new to Mac. The M4 MacBook Pro was particularly notable, offering powerful performance and the longest battery life ever on a Mac, while the Mac Studio and Mac Mini also performed well with their capabilities for AI workflows and performance in compact designs.
Q:What significant updates are expected in the upcoming release of iPad OS 26?
A:iPad OS 26 will introduce a new windowing system, an enhanced Files app, and a beautiful new software design.
Q:How is Apple TV Plus performing in terms of viewer statistics?
A:Apple TV Plus has earned more than 2700 award nominations, 585 wins, and is showing very positive trends with viewership up strong double digits year over year.
Q:What significant event did Apple Music celebrate and what new features are expected?
A:Apple Music celebrated its 10th anniversary and launched a new studio space in Los Angeles for artists. Later this year, Apple Music will offer an enhanced listening experience with auto mix, lyrics translation, and more.
Q:What accessibility updates were announced for Apple products?
A:Updates for Apple's accessibility features include Magnifier for Mac, a new Braille experience, accessibility reader, and accessibility nutrition labels.
Q:What investments and commitments has Apple made?
A:Apple has made a half a billion dollar commitment with NP materials to support American industry and has announced plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years for advanced manufacturing, silicon engineering, and artificial intelligence.
Q:What is the impact of tariffs on Apple's financials?
A:For the June quarter, Apple incurred approximately $800 million of tariff related costs. The company estimated the impact to add about 1.1 billion to their costs for the September quarter but cautions that projections for future quarters should not be made based on this estimate due to potential changes in tariff rates.
Q:What were the overall financial results for the June quarter?
A:Revenue was $94 billion, up 10% year over year, with a net income of $23.4 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.57, up 12% year over year.
Q:What was the performance of iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch in the June quarter?
A:iPhone revenue was $44.6 billion, up 13% year over year, driven by the iPhone 16 family, with growth in every geographic segment and double digit growth in emerging markets. The iPhone active install base grew to an all-time high, and the upgrader rate reached a June quarter record. Mac revenue was $8 billion, up 15% year over year, with strength across the portfolio including MacBook Air, Mac Mini, and MacBook Pro, and growth in every geographic segment. The Mac install base reached an all-time high with a June quarter record for upgraders. Apple Watch revenue was $7.4 billion, down 9% year over year, with the Apple Watch install base reaching a new all-time high, setting a quarterly record for upgraders, and customer satisfaction at 97% in the US.
Q:How did services revenue perform and what achievements were made?
A:Services revenue reached an all-time high of $27.4 billion, up 13% year over year. Sequential acceleration was seen across most categories, including cloud services, with an all-time revenue record in the June quarter driven by year-over-year growth of iCloud paying accounts. The company saw strong momentum with the growth of the active devices installed base, providing opportunities for the future. Customer engagement across services offerings continued to grow, with both transacting and paid accounts reaching new all-time highs, and paid subscriptions growing double digits.
Q:What are the recent developments in the enterprise segment?
A:Enterprise saw record results with organizations investing in Apple products for employee innovation and productivity. Companies like PayPal and Roche deployed more Macs for the workforce, and Siam Commercial Bank deployed iPads across branches to enhance banking operations. CAE used Apple Vision Pro for pilot training to improve in-person flight simulator training outcomes.
Q:What was the impact of recent capital return actions and the current cash position?
A:The company ended the quarter with $133 billion in cash and marketable securities, after accounting for $5.7 billion in debt maturities, $4.5 billion in new debt, and an increase in commercial paper by $4 billion, resulting in $102 billion in total debt. Net cash was $31 billion. During the quarter, over $27 billion was returned to shareholders, including $3.9 billion in dividends and equivalents and $21 billion through open market repurchases of Apple shares.
Q:What is the outlook for the September quarter and what factors are considered in the forecast?
A:The outlook for the September quarter assumes global tariff rates, policies, and applications remain as they are at the time of the call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen. Total company revenue is expected to grow mid to high single digits year over year, with services revenue growth at a similar rate to the June quarter. Gross margin is expected to be between 46% and 47%, including the estimated impact of $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs. Operating expenses are expected to be between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion, with OI and E around negative $25 million, and a tax rate around 17%. A cash dividend of 26 cents per share will be paid on August 14 to shareholders of record as of August 11.
Q:What are the recent trends in search behavior on Safari and their implications for Apple products?
A:Searches on Safari declined by 13% in April, which was a notable change as it was the first time such a decrease had occurred in over a decade. However, the decline in search trends did not seem to affect Apple's 13% services growth in the June quarter. The question raised concerns about whether Apple products are losing their strategic value as AI platforms become more popular or if they are increasing in strategic importance.
Q:How did the iPhone's performance and product demand vary across different regions, especially in China?
A:In the June quarter, the iPhone grew by 4% in greater China compared to the previous quarter, driven by an acceleration in iPhone sales and substantial growth in Mac sales. This growth was attributed in part to government subsidies on certain products. The quarter saw a record high install base in greater China, with an all-time record for iPhone install base, and an increase in iPhone upgraders in urban China. Furthermore, the majority of customers purchasing Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch products in mainland China were new to Apple products. Notably, the MacBook Air was the top-selling laptop model, and the Mac mini was the top-selling desktop model in China.
Q:What is the progress and expected release of Siri and other AI features by Apple?
A:Apple is making good progress on more personalized AI features, with plans to release these features the following year. The focus is on AI integration that is personal, private, and seamless. Apple has continued to invest in AI, growing the investment during the June quarter and planning to do so again in the September quarter, although specific numbers are not provided. The company is reallocating a significant number of people to work on AI features. Although not commenting on specific other products, Apple is excited about the roadmap ahead.
Q:What factors might contribute to the revenue growth deceleration from Q3 to Q4?
A:The anticipated deceleration in revenue growth from Q3 to Q4 can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, the revenue from Q3 includes a carryover demand related to the iPhone launch, which is expected to decline by about one point of the 10 that was realized in Q3. Secondly, the Q4 results will include a full quarter's impact of the newiPad launch last year, which leads to a difficult comparison this year. Additionally, currency is a minor tailwind, suggesting it is not a significant factor in the deceleration.
Q:What are the strategies being considered to offset the headwind from tariffs?
A:The strategies being considered to offset the headwind from tariffs include further investments in the United States, such as the commitment of a $500 billion investment over the next four years, building ships in Arizona, constructing semiconductors across 12 states and 24 factories, and other potential investments like the recent investment in MP materials.
Q:What impact did the Epic case have on Apple's services growth?
A:The impact of the Epic case on Apple's services growth was positive, as the company had a very strong services quarter with record revenue growth of 13%, driven by broad-based strength across both developed and emerging markets, with double-digit growth in all categories including cloud services.
Q:What is the composition of Apple's supply chain strategy and how does it relate to production or assembly locations?
A:Apple's supply chain strategy involves focusing production or assembly in various locations, with a significant portion of products being covered under Section 232 investigation. The majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. have a country of origin of India, and other products like Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch have a country of origin in Vietnam. The majority of the remaining products are produced in China. However, Apple is investing more in the U.S., with plans to spend $500 billion over the next four years and recent announcements regarding investments in things like TSMC materials and a new manufacturing academy in Detroit.
Q:What were the demand drivers for the iPhone in the June quarter?
A:The demand drivers for the iPhone in the June quarter included strong upgrade performance with the iPhone 16 family, which set a June quarter record, and the continued success of the 16E variant, which was recently introduced and positively impacted the overall performance of the iPhone 16 lineup.
Q:How did channel inventory for iPhones look at the end of the June quarter in comparison to the beginning and seasonal trends?
A:Channel inventory for iPhones was reduced from the beginning to the end of the quarter and ended toward the low end of the targeted range, indicating that the inventory levels were managed effectively and were consistent with seasonal trends.
Q:What was the impact of the pull ahead on the company's growth in the June quarter?
A:The pull ahead in the June quarter had a limited impact on the company's growth, estimated at one point of growth at the total company level.
Q:How does Tim Cook view the potential future of AI for edge devices?
A:Tim Cook believes that AI is one of the most profound technologies of our lifetime and will affect all devices in a significant way, although he refrained from commenting on whether it will become a commodity or the evolution of edge devices due to potential implications on strategy.
Q:What underpinned the pull ahead in the June quarter, and which regions were affected?
A:The pull ahead in the June quarter was principally on iPhones and Macs, evidenced by unusual buying patterns in April, and it was largely in the United States.
Q:What should be considered when forecasting for the December quarter in relation to tariffs?
A:When forecasting for the December quarter, one should consider the uncertainty of tax rates, potential changes in those rates, and that the last quarter had unique factors such as inventory builds within the company and supply chain, which may not repeat in December.
Q:What is the expected currency impact on the business in the September quarter?
A:The expected currency impact on the business in the September quarter is minimal, with a small tailwind projected from foreign exchange for both revenue and gross margin as the quarter transitions from Q3 to Q4.
Q:Is there a need to accelerate the AI roadmap through M&A, and what types of companies are being considered?
A:The need to accelerate the AI roadmap through M&A is open for consideration, with a focus on whether a company can help advance their roadmap. The types of companies being considered are varied and not limited to a specific size, as long as they can contribute to the roadmap.

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